基于系统观的迁移型农村人力资本疏导机制研究
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摘要
我国农业、农村和农民问题的存在,主要原因是大量的农村人力资源不能有效地转化为人力资本,生产型的人力资本以消费型的人口形式存在,存在严重的人力资源闲置浪费的情况,同时,农业与农村范围内也不存在充分利用现存人力资源的条件。社会各界取得的共识是:通过减少农村人口数量、实现农村剩余劳动力永久性城市化转移是解决我国农业、农村和农民问题的有效途径,
中国政府已经在多方面做出了努力,但收效并不理想,主要表现在三个方面:(1)虽然计划生育政策在控制人口方面起到了巨大的作用,但是农村依然面临着巨大的人口压力;(2)虽然中国农村劳动力非农化规模逐年增加,2008年已经达到了2.3亿的规模,但是通过城镇劳动力市场就业来实现永久性迁移的比例微乎其微,进入城市非农产业就业的农村劳动力的城市化或市民化进程明显滞后;(3)农村生源大学生的农村退出、城市进入过程具有明显的类似于农村剩余劳动力乡-城转移的市民化特征,其乡-城迁移过程一直在执行着减少农民(农村人口)数量、推进农村人口城市化进程的功能,中国政府也适时地做出了高等教育扩大招生规模的决定,但是农村学生入学率明显低于城市学生入学率,城市就业状况也不理想,高等教育途径并没有很好地执行转移农村人口的功能。显然,农村人口问题、农村子女教育问题和农村剩余劳动力转移问题三方面互相影响且具有紧密的联系,片面地强调某一方面必然带来“三农”问题解决的低效率。以人口成长过程为主线的“人口出生-教育-劳动力转移”系统全过程应成为我们解决问题的着眼点。在此认识背景下,在系统过程各环节开展农村人力城市资本化规律及政府疏导路径的探索,为社会各界决策、研究判断提供帮助显得非常必要。
研究基于2009届高校毕业生就业状况随机调查、2009年城市居民就业迁移状况调查和农村居民就业迁移状况调查汇总信息的基础上,进行相应的数据提取整理,组成两个研究数据库:农村生源大学毕业生乡城迁移特征研究数据库和农村剩余劳动力流动特征研究数据库。在相关概念界定的基础上,充分探讨了农村人力城市资本化系统过程三个环节(农村人口生产-农村人力资源培育-农村剩余劳动力转移)相互影响的机制,并利用两个研究数据库,在微观层次上,对系统过程的三个环节(子系统)中存在的问题进行诊断,进一步提出了政府疏导路径的实现方案。
研究应用Arcgis9.2和SAS9.0软件包,采用一般线性回归模型和logistic模型是进行分析。在研究过程中,参考相关研究文献的基础上,进行了两个方面的拓展,首先是在研究对象上进行了拓展,增加了已经城市化居民家庭样本,作为农村家庭迁移的一种结果,使研究对象更全面,研究结果更有说服力;其次是在研究内容上进行了拓展,目前国内关于大学生就业的探讨仅仅集中在就业难问题的描述,本研究从乡城迁移角度来探讨大学生就业问题,使人们对农村人口城市化的认识更加全面。基于以上样本、工具和方法,主要研究发现如下:
(1)在对农村人口生产子系统诊断中发现,“多子并不多福”,农村家庭追求多子的行为是对农村社会养老福利制度缺失的一种适应性反应,即“养儿防老”。相应地,这一适应性行为的结果也不利于农村人口城市化。
(2)在对农村人力资源培育子系统分析中发现,农村生源大学生以乡城单向流动为特征的就业过程没有发挥其应有的农村人口转移作用;家庭背景已经成为农村生源就业的障碍,但是农村生源大学生并没有表现出较弱的就业能力;农村生源大学生乡城就业能力上表现出了明显的性别不平衡,女性农村生源大学生表现出了较强的城市就业能力。
(3)在对农村剩余劳动力转移子系统分析发现,职业变更和地理迁移行为均对农村家庭收入具有显著的正向影响,但农村弱势家庭往往会选择变更就业地址;本地非农业生产型家庭生活质量较高,但季节性迁移模式下的家庭生活满意度最低;农村家庭在迁移过程中表现出了职业部门选择能力较弱的特点。农村弱势家庭城市化或季节性外出就业行为实际上是与本地“旺族”农村家庭竞争本地就业资源时“被挤出”的结果,因此永久性城市化能力较弱。
研究表明,促进农村剩余劳动力永久性转移必须从系统整体角度出发,针对农村劳动力形成的源头、形成过程、农村劳动力就业及转移各阶段中存在的问题,整体通盘考虑加以解决。政府可行的疏导路径是:以加强农村养老保障制度建设为突破口,打破农村居民“养儿防老”的“多子-家庭人均收益下降-养老没保障-多生孩子”的恶性循环,从农村剩余劳动力形成角度减少农村人口压力;进一步加强农村子女教育工作,改革高等教育入学制度,提高农村生源大学生入学率,为农村生源大学生就业提供更多帮助;积极拓宽渠道转移现有农村剩余劳动力。
One of the various reasons that can lead to the "issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers" in China is that a great number of existing (or potential) rural labor resource cannot effectively transform to human capital at present and in the future. Human capital being productive exists in the form of consumers. So there is a severe waste of human resource. There is one consensus to address the "issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers" in society which is reducing the number of farmers and accomplishing the permanent urbanization of rural surplus labors.
The Chinese government has already done a lot of efforts in many aspects to tackle this issue, but the results are not remarkable. This can be illustrated in three points. To begin with, as to reducing the number of farmers, although the "One-Child Policy" has played a very important role in controlling the quantity of the total population, China still faces great pressures on such a great number of populations. What is more, despite the fact that the scale of rural surplus labors migrating to non-agricultural field increases gradually and it is reported that there was 230 million rural residents working in non-agricultural areas in 2008, the proportion for permanent migration is quite small. The process of the urbanization for the rural surplus labors working in non-agricultural fields in urban areas is obviously lagging behind. Last but not least, the process for the undergraduate students from rural areas migrating to urban areas has a similar characteristic compared with that of rural-urban migration of the rural surplus labors which is working on reducing the amount of farmers and promoting the urbanization of the rural residents. Meanwhile, the Chinese government makes a decision to expand the number of the enrolled students for higher education. But we need to focus on the fact that the percentage of students entering to universities who living in rural areas is obvious lower than those living in urban areas. Moreover, students from rural areas are less likely to find a desirable job than urban students. This shows us that higher education cannot complete the rural labor migration task alone. In this circumstance, exploring the mechanism and persuasion policy of the rural human capital migration is essential to help make strategic decisions in society level.
This research is based on a random investigation from three aspects. They are investigations of employment from graduates (in June, 2009), from urban residents and from rural residents (both in the period between July to August, in 2009). Correspondingly, we made two research databases. They are the database of the rural-urban migration from rural graduates and the database for the mobility characteristic of the rural surplus labors, respectively. On the basis of relevant definition, by using the two databases, we explored the mechanism of mutual interactions of three links during the capitalization for human resource from rural to city. And the three links are fertility of rural population, cultivating of rural human capital and transformation of rural surplus labors.
We used the ArcGIS9.2 and SAS9.0 as the research tools and the Classical Linear Regression Model and Logistic Model were employed. Based on previous relevant studies, this research expanded from two main ways. The first one is we made a wider range of the research samples. We added the rural families who have already located in urban areas to our sample. By doing this, the results can be more convinced. Secondly, we enriched the research context. At present, the analyses of the graduate employment in China mainly center on the description of difficulties to get a job. Studying the graduates’employment issue from the perspective of rural-urban migration can deepen the recognition of the urbanization of the rural residents. Our findings are as follows:
(1)The research on fertility of rural population reveals that more children does not mean more satisfactory in life. That is to say, having more children in rural family is an adaptive response to the imperfect of the benefit system to the elderly in rural society, which is also called" bringing up children for the purpose of being looked after in old age". Correspondingly, this behavior is not beneficial for the urbanization of the rural residents. The urbanization of rural disadvantaged family or seasonally mobility for a job is essentially the direct result of competence with the family having a lot of children locally. As a consequence, the ability of permanent urbanization is weak.
(2)Regarding to the cultivating of rural human capital, we found that the process of rural graduate employment characterized by one-way rural-urban mobility did not play a role in the rural labor migration. Family background has already been a barrier in the employment for the rural graduates to some degree. Moreover, there is a distinguished gender unbalance among rural graduates in employability. It is notable that girls have a strong employability.
(3)In terms of the rural surplus labor mobility, the result shows that both occupational mobility and geographical migration have a positive influence on the rural family income. Rural disadvantaged families are more likely to change the position of their workplace. Families of local-off-agriculture have a high quality of life while the satisfaction may be low to those of seasonally migration. In the process of migration, rural family has a weak ability to choose the employment department.
Due to the research founding, we argue that we must tackle the rural surplus labor permanent migration issue on a whole level. More specifically, we can address the rural labor issue from four aspects: the forming resource, the generation process, the employment and the existing problems during every step in the migration. Our suggestions are as follows. Firstly, we should strengthen the welfare for the elderly in the rural areas and break the vicious circle for having a lot of children. This can reduce the labor pressure regarding to the rural surplus labor issue. Moreover, increasing education level and raising the enrolment ratio in rural areas can help rural undergraduate students’employment. Thirdly, we should make more ways to divert the existing rural surplus labors.
中国政府已经在多方面做出了努力,但收效并不理想,主要表现在三个方面:(1)虽然计划生育政策在控制人口方面起到了巨大的作用,但是农村依然面临着巨大的人口压力;(2)虽然中国农村劳动力非农化规模逐年增加,2008年已经达到了2.3亿的规模,但是通过城镇劳动力市场就业来实现永久性迁移的比例微乎其微,进入城市非农产业就业的农村劳动力的城市化或市民化进程明显滞后;(3)农村生源大学生的农村退出、城市进入过程具有明显的类似于农村剩余劳动力乡-城转移的市民化特征,其乡-城迁移过程一直在执行着减少农民(农村人口)数量、推进农村人口城市化进程的功能,中国政府也适时地做出了高等教育扩大招生规模的决定,但是农村学生入学率明显低于城市学生入学率,城市就业状况也不理想,高等教育途径并没有很好地执行转移农村人口的功能。显然,农村人口问题、农村子女教育问题和农村剩余劳动力转移问题三方面互相影响且具有紧密的联系,片面地强调某一方面必然带来“三农”问题解决的低效率。以人口成长过程为主线的“人口出生-教育-劳动力转移”系统全过程应成为我们解决问题的着眼点。在此认识背景下,在系统过程各环节开展农村人力城市资本化规律及政府疏导路径的探索,为社会各界决策、研究判断提供帮助显得非常必要。
研究基于2009届高校毕业生就业状况随机调查、2009年城市居民就业迁移状况调查和农村居民就业迁移状况调查汇总信息的基础上,进行相应的数据提取整理,组成两个研究数据库:农村生源大学毕业生乡城迁移特征研究数据库和农村剩余劳动力流动特征研究数据库。在相关概念界定的基础上,充分探讨了农村人力城市资本化系统过程三个环节(农村人口生产-农村人力资源培育-农村剩余劳动力转移)相互影响的机制,并利用两个研究数据库,在微观层次上,对系统过程的三个环节(子系统)中存在的问题进行诊断,进一步提出了政府疏导路径的实现方案。
研究应用Arcgis9.2和SAS9.0软件包,采用一般线性回归模型和logistic模型是进行分析。在研究过程中,参考相关研究文献的基础上,进行了两个方面的拓展,首先是在研究对象上进行了拓展,增加了已经城市化居民家庭样本,作为农村家庭迁移的一种结果,使研究对象更全面,研究结果更有说服力;其次是在研究内容上进行了拓展,目前国内关于大学生就业的探讨仅仅集中在就业难问题的描述,本研究从乡城迁移角度来探讨大学生就业问题,使人们对农村人口城市化的认识更加全面。基于以上样本、工具和方法,主要研究发现如下:
(1)在对农村人口生产子系统诊断中发现,“多子并不多福”,农村家庭追求多子的行为是对农村社会养老福利制度缺失的一种适应性反应,即“养儿防老”。相应地,这一适应性行为的结果也不利于农村人口城市化。
(2)在对农村人力资源培育子系统分析中发现,农村生源大学生以乡城单向流动为特征的就业过程没有发挥其应有的农村人口转移作用;家庭背景已经成为农村生源就业的障碍,但是农村生源大学生并没有表现出较弱的就业能力;农村生源大学生乡城就业能力上表现出了明显的性别不平衡,女性农村生源大学生表现出了较强的城市就业能力。
(3)在对农村剩余劳动力转移子系统分析发现,职业变更和地理迁移行为均对农村家庭收入具有显著的正向影响,但农村弱势家庭往往会选择变更就业地址;本地非农业生产型家庭生活质量较高,但季节性迁移模式下的家庭生活满意度最低;农村家庭在迁移过程中表现出了职业部门选择能力较弱的特点。农村弱势家庭城市化或季节性外出就业行为实际上是与本地“旺族”农村家庭竞争本地就业资源时“被挤出”的结果,因此永久性城市化能力较弱。
研究表明,促进农村剩余劳动力永久性转移必须从系统整体角度出发,针对农村劳动力形成的源头、形成过程、农村劳动力就业及转移各阶段中存在的问题,整体通盘考虑加以解决。政府可行的疏导路径是:以加强农村养老保障制度建设为突破口,打破农村居民“养儿防老”的“多子-家庭人均收益下降-养老没保障-多生孩子”的恶性循环,从农村剩余劳动力形成角度减少农村人口压力;进一步加强农村子女教育工作,改革高等教育入学制度,提高农村生源大学生入学率,为农村生源大学生就业提供更多帮助;积极拓宽渠道转移现有农村剩余劳动力。
One of the various reasons that can lead to the "issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers" in China is that a great number of existing (or potential) rural labor resource cannot effectively transform to human capital at present and in the future. Human capital being productive exists in the form of consumers. So there is a severe waste of human resource. There is one consensus to address the "issues concerning agriculture, countryside and farmers" in society which is reducing the number of farmers and accomplishing the permanent urbanization of rural surplus labors.
The Chinese government has already done a lot of efforts in many aspects to tackle this issue, but the results are not remarkable. This can be illustrated in three points. To begin with, as to reducing the number of farmers, although the "One-Child Policy" has played a very important role in controlling the quantity of the total population, China still faces great pressures on such a great number of populations. What is more, despite the fact that the scale of rural surplus labors migrating to non-agricultural field increases gradually and it is reported that there was 230 million rural residents working in non-agricultural areas in 2008, the proportion for permanent migration is quite small. The process of the urbanization for the rural surplus labors working in non-agricultural fields in urban areas is obviously lagging behind. Last but not least, the process for the undergraduate students from rural areas migrating to urban areas has a similar characteristic compared with that of rural-urban migration of the rural surplus labors which is working on reducing the amount of farmers and promoting the urbanization of the rural residents. Meanwhile, the Chinese government makes a decision to expand the number of the enrolled students for higher education. But we need to focus on the fact that the percentage of students entering to universities who living in rural areas is obvious lower than those living in urban areas. Moreover, students from rural areas are less likely to find a desirable job than urban students. This shows us that higher education cannot complete the rural labor migration task alone. In this circumstance, exploring the mechanism and persuasion policy of the rural human capital migration is essential to help make strategic decisions in society level.
This research is based on a random investigation from three aspects. They are investigations of employment from graduates (in June, 2009), from urban residents and from rural residents (both in the period between July to August, in 2009). Correspondingly, we made two research databases. They are the database of the rural-urban migration from rural graduates and the database for the mobility characteristic of the rural surplus labors, respectively. On the basis of relevant definition, by using the two databases, we explored the mechanism of mutual interactions of three links during the capitalization for human resource from rural to city. And the three links are fertility of rural population, cultivating of rural human capital and transformation of rural surplus labors.
We used the ArcGIS9.2 and SAS9.0 as the research tools and the Classical Linear Regression Model and Logistic Model were employed. Based on previous relevant studies, this research expanded from two main ways. The first one is we made a wider range of the research samples. We added the rural families who have already located in urban areas to our sample. By doing this, the results can be more convinced. Secondly, we enriched the research context. At present, the analyses of the graduate employment in China mainly center on the description of difficulties to get a job. Studying the graduates’employment issue from the perspective of rural-urban migration can deepen the recognition of the urbanization of the rural residents. Our findings are as follows:
(1)The research on fertility of rural population reveals that more children does not mean more satisfactory in life. That is to say, having more children in rural family is an adaptive response to the imperfect of the benefit system to the elderly in rural society, which is also called" bringing up children for the purpose of being looked after in old age". Correspondingly, this behavior is not beneficial for the urbanization of the rural residents. The urbanization of rural disadvantaged family or seasonally mobility for a job is essentially the direct result of competence with the family having a lot of children locally. As a consequence, the ability of permanent urbanization is weak.
(2)Regarding to the cultivating of rural human capital, we found that the process of rural graduate employment characterized by one-way rural-urban mobility did not play a role in the rural labor migration. Family background has already been a barrier in the employment for the rural graduates to some degree. Moreover, there is a distinguished gender unbalance among rural graduates in employability. It is notable that girls have a strong employability.
(3)In terms of the rural surplus labor mobility, the result shows that both occupational mobility and geographical migration have a positive influence on the rural family income. Rural disadvantaged families are more likely to change the position of their workplace. Families of local-off-agriculture have a high quality of life while the satisfaction may be low to those of seasonally migration. In the process of migration, rural family has a weak ability to choose the employment department.
Due to the research founding, we argue that we must tackle the rural surplus labor permanent migration issue on a whole level. More specifically, we can address the rural labor issue from four aspects: the forming resource, the generation process, the employment and the existing problems during every step in the migration. Our suggestions are as follows. Firstly, we should strengthen the welfare for the elderly in the rural areas and break the vicious circle for having a lot of children. This can reduce the labor pressure regarding to the rural surplus labor issue. Moreover, increasing education level and raising the enrolment ratio in rural areas can help rural undergraduate students’employment. Thirdly, we should make more ways to divert the existing rural surplus labors.
引文
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