电力网一、二次系统可靠性分析与应用
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摘要
客观定量地评估电力系统可靠性能探明电力系统的薄弱环节，从提高系统可靠性的角度指明电力系统规划/优化的方向，以期实现电力系统安全、稳定、可靠等运行目标，达到可靠性与经济性的有机统一。为防止各种事故的发生，保证电力系统安全、稳定和经济运行，不但需要有性能稳定可靠的一次设备及其构成的一次系统，而且对各级二次设备和系统的可靠性也提出了很高的要求。多起大停电事故也警醒人们：电力系统是含一二次系统在内的系统工程。而长期以来电力系统可靠性评估理论在研究对象丰富程度、模型精细度和评估效率等方面都未能满足电力系统发展的要求。特别是在我国社会与经济快速协调发展的条件下，对电网一二次系统可靠性评估进行科学系统的研究分析更具现实迫切性以及重要的理论意义和工程应用价值。为此，本文针对新科学技术手段先后应用的现实和电网一二次系统的新特性，围绕电网一二次系统可靠性分析与应用问题开展研究工作，主要体现在以下几个方面：
通过方差分析和正交设计，采用最小二乘法拟合缺陷率-使用年限曲线，发现二次设备使用年限对缺陷率有一般显著影响；针对电力系统二次设备运行特点和缺陷规律，建立了基于改进马尔可夫模型求解二次设备可靠性指标；对影响二次设备最优检修周期的各种参数进行灵敏度分析，表明自检系数、检修成功系数、保护装置故障率对最优检修周期的影响程度最强。
针对电力自动化系统复杂性和特殊性，提出可定制自动化系统的概念，并试点建设；建立基于二元决策的故障树模型，将故障树分析法和重要度因子相结合，定量分析评估变电站自动化系统的可靠性，并采用灵敏度分析法探寻关键设备冗余配置的可靠性增强措施，并通过实际算例的评估验证了方法的有效性。
作为现代电网的重要组成，数字化变电站是典型的多阶段任务系统。综合考虑数字化变电站中二次设备和通信系统的可靠性，建立了数字化变电站的多阶段任务系统故障树可靠性模型，实现由一、二次系统构成的可靠性综合评估方法，通过工程算例验证了所提模型和方法。
基于模糊理论和概率论的云理论，提出了基于云理论的地区电网安全风险评估模型，提供了一种定性概念与定量数值分布之间的转换；通过实际电网仿真计算，有效证明了云理论在电力系统运行风险评估中的适用性。
针对南方电网已形成具有特高压直流输电、多馈入直流的―八交五直‖交直流混合大电网的特点，通过可靠性指标的计算和灵敏度分析，探明了南方电网―十一五‖原规划电网的薄弱环节。以提高电网西电东送通道的输送能力，加强送端与受端的电气联系，提高系统的稳定水平为出发点，确定优化方案。计算分析表明：提出的优化措施大幅提高电网的暂态安全性水平，优化效果十分显著。
Objective and quantitative evaluation of power system reliability can explore theweakness and point out a way for power system planning/optimization from the view ofimproving reliability, in order to achieve the goal of keep security, stability and reliability ofpower system operation. To avoid accidents and keep security, stability and economic,primary devices and its system of stable and reliable performance are not only needed,reliability of different levels of secondary systems are also put forward very high demand.Multiple cases of blackout wake the people: power system is a systemic project, includingprimary and secondary systems. For a long time, power system reliability evaluation cannotsatisfy the development of power system in the way of object richness, model fineness andevaluation efficiency. Particularly, with the development of economy and society of China,power system reliability evaluation is of the great practical significance and engineering value.For this reason, the dissertation discussed reliability analysis and application of primary andsecondary system in power grid, according to the new characteristics of primary andsecondary systems. The main work is as follows:
Least square method is used to fit defect rate with respect to service life, based onvariance analysis and orthogonal design. It is found that service life of secondary device hasgeneral significant influence on the defect rate; in accordance to the features of secondarysystem and the defect laws, reliability indices of secondary devices are proposed; sensitivityanalysis of influencing factors contributed to optimum maintenance cycle indicateself-checking factor, overhaul success factor, protection failure rate affects most.
Aiming at complexity and particularity of automation system, binary decision fault treemodel are built, combing fault tree analysis and importance factor. And the approach isapplied to evaluation the reliability of substation automation system. Sensitivity analysismethod is employed to explore the enhance measures of key devices redundancy. Theengineering cases validated the availability of the approach.
As part of the modern power grid, digital substation is typical phased-mission system.Considering the reliability of secondary devices and communication system, fault tree modelof phased-mission system is proposed, achieved comprehensive reliability assessment ofprimary and secondary system. The engineering cases validated the availability of theapproach.
The cloud theory based on the traditional fuzzy set theory and the probability theory haspotential to solve both of them at the same time. Therefore, operational risk assessment of regional power grid is proposed, which provides an uncertain transformation model betweensome qualitative concepts described by natural language terms and some quantitative valuesdistributions. The numerical results of Guangzhou grid typical operation mode demonstratethe practicability and maneuverability of the approach proposed.
According to the characteristics of China south grid which is an AC/DC hybridtransmission system with ultra high voltage direct current transmission system, multi-infeedhigh voltage direct current, the weakness of original planned grid are found by reliabilityevaluation and sensitivity analysis. In order to improve the transmission capacity, strengthenelectrical contact between send and receive terminals, increase system stable level, theoptimization scheme is determined. The results show that the proposed optimization schemecan advance the transient stability greatly, and the optimization effect is very significant.
通过方差分析和正交设计，采用最小二乘法拟合缺陷率-使用年限曲线，发现二次设备使用年限对缺陷率有一般显著影响；针对电力系统二次设备运行特点和缺陷规律，建立了基于改进马尔可夫模型求解二次设备可靠性指标；对影响二次设备最优检修周期的各种参数进行灵敏度分析，表明自检系数、检修成功系数、保护装置故障率对最优检修周期的影响程度最强。
针对电力自动化系统复杂性和特殊性，提出可定制自动化系统的概念，并试点建设；建立基于二元决策的故障树模型，将故障树分析法和重要度因子相结合，定量分析评估变电站自动化系统的可靠性，并采用灵敏度分析法探寻关键设备冗余配置的可靠性增强措施，并通过实际算例的评估验证了方法的有效性。
作为现代电网的重要组成，数字化变电站是典型的多阶段任务系统。综合考虑数字化变电站中二次设备和通信系统的可靠性，建立了数字化变电站的多阶段任务系统故障树可靠性模型，实现由一、二次系统构成的可靠性综合评估方法，通过工程算例验证了所提模型和方法。
基于模糊理论和概率论的云理论，提出了基于云理论的地区电网安全风险评估模型，提供了一种定性概念与定量数值分布之间的转换；通过实际电网仿真计算，有效证明了云理论在电力系统运行风险评估中的适用性。
针对南方电网已形成具有特高压直流输电、多馈入直流的―八交五直‖交直流混合大电网的特点，通过可靠性指标的计算和灵敏度分析，探明了南方电网―十一五‖原规划电网的薄弱环节。以提高电网西电东送通道的输送能力，加强送端与受端的电气联系，提高系统的稳定水平为出发点，确定优化方案。计算分析表明：提出的优化措施大幅提高电网的暂态安全性水平，优化效果十分显著。
Objective and quantitative evaluation of power system reliability can explore theweakness and point out a way for power system planning/optimization from the view ofimproving reliability, in order to achieve the goal of keep security, stability and reliability ofpower system operation. To avoid accidents and keep security, stability and economic,primary devices and its system of stable and reliable performance are not only needed,reliability of different levels of secondary systems are also put forward very high demand.Multiple cases of blackout wake the people: power system is a systemic project, includingprimary and secondary systems. For a long time, power system reliability evaluation cannotsatisfy the development of power system in the way of object richness, model fineness andevaluation efficiency. Particularly, with the development of economy and society of China,power system reliability evaluation is of the great practical significance and engineering value.For this reason, the dissertation discussed reliability analysis and application of primary andsecondary system in power grid, according to the new characteristics of primary andsecondary systems. The main work is as follows:
Least square method is used to fit defect rate with respect to service life, based onvariance analysis and orthogonal design. It is found that service life of secondary device hasgeneral significant influence on the defect rate; in accordance to the features of secondarysystem and the defect laws, reliability indices of secondary devices are proposed; sensitivityanalysis of influencing factors contributed to optimum maintenance cycle indicateself-checking factor, overhaul success factor, protection failure rate affects most.
Aiming at complexity and particularity of automation system, binary decision fault treemodel are built, combing fault tree analysis and importance factor. And the approach isapplied to evaluation the reliability of substation automation system. Sensitivity analysismethod is employed to explore the enhance measures of key devices redundancy. Theengineering cases validated the availability of the approach.
As part of the modern power grid, digital substation is typical phased-mission system.Considering the reliability of secondary devices and communication system, fault tree modelof phased-mission system is proposed, achieved comprehensive reliability assessment ofprimary and secondary system. The engineering cases validated the availability of theapproach.
The cloud theory based on the traditional fuzzy set theory and the probability theory haspotential to solve both of them at the same time. Therefore, operational risk assessment of regional power grid is proposed, which provides an uncertain transformation model betweensome qualitative concepts described by natural language terms and some quantitative valuesdistributions. The numerical results of Guangzhou grid typical operation mode demonstratethe practicability and maneuverability of the approach proposed.
According to the characteristics of China south grid which is an AC/DC hybridtransmission system with ultra high voltage direct current transmission system, multi-infeedhigh voltage direct current, the weakness of original planned grid are found by reliabilityevaluation and sensitivity analysis. In order to improve the transmission capacity, strengthenelectrical contact between send and receive terminals, increase system stable level, theoptimization scheme is determined. The results show that the proposed optimization schemecan advance the transient stability greatly, and the optimization effect is very significant.
引文
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