突发事件食品应急物流中应急能力评价与方案优化研究
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摘要
大型突发公共事件,如SARS危机、自然灾害(如2008年初发生的雪灾)而导致的大量人口滞留、受阻,对我国社会整体生产、人民生活造成了巨大冲击。突发性公共事件中保障人的生命安全是最重要的,食品供应是保障人生命安全的重要物质基础。因此食品应急物流是整个应急物流活动的重中之重。
为确保食品应急物流系统正常运行并进行总结改进,有必要对食品应急物流进行监督评价和优化,主要对应急物流各环节运行是否有效,有无瓶颈或短板的存在等进行评价和优化分析。本文针对上述问题,通过资料检索、现场调研、建模分析等方法,在实际调研的基础上总结优化了现有的食品应急物流运作流程,对食品应急物流的应急能力进行评价,对食品应急物流方案进行优化分析。主要工作如下：
(1)分析食品应急物流的内涵、食品应急物流的阶段划分、食品应急物流的关键流程,对现有的食品应急物流流程尤其是应急响应阶段的流程进行改进,提出食品应急物流运作流程图和优化的运作流程,并应用层次分析法对其优化效果进行评估分析。
(2)从食品供应应急管理的全过程出发,结合突发事件食品应急物流的特性,提出突发事件食品供应应急能力和应急能力评价的概念,提出基于过程管理的评价指标体系设计原理、原则,构建全面体现和反映突发事件食品供应应急能力内涵的应急能力评价指标体系。引进熵理论对层次分析法确定的指标权重进行了修正,应用改进后的层次模糊综合评价模型,构建基于风险的突发事件食品供应应急能力评价模型,并采用案例进行分析研究
(3)根据实际情况对食品应急物流方案优化中的资源配置问题进行合理假设,建立食品物流应急资源配置的模型,并应用遗传算法对模型进行求解分析,最后辅之以算例。
(4)通过应用随机过程理论,建立突发事件应急食品及时送达的随机过程模型,得出应急食品送达延续时间的数学期望,与应急物流要求的送达期限进行比较,以确保应急食品及时送达目的地。并对应急食品送达满足应急物流要求运到期限的概率进行分析,找出应急食品送达的关键环节,提出改进应急食品送达流程的新方法
(5)在食品应急物流运作流程分析的基础上,提出了以先分析中后期再分析初期的逆向思维进行成本优化研究的新思路,应用成本管理理论建立食品应急物流成本优化模型,并以某突发事件食品应急物流的相关数据为支撑,进行实证研究。
Large numbers of people stranded, blocked, which are induced by large-scale public emergencies such as SARS, natural disaster, could be significantly harmful to the total production and people's lives of our country. In the public emergencies, it is crucial to ensure the life safty of people, which needs food supply to be guaranteed during such event. Therefore, the food emergency logistics is the most important essential during the whole emergency logistics activities. In order to make sure that the food emergency logistics system could be operated well, it is necessary to supervise, evaluate and optimize the food emergency logistics. The study mainly concerned whether all sectors of emergency logistics could operate effectively, and whether there were bttlenecks or short board in these sectors.
On the basis of surveys, this dissertation evaluated the emergency response capabilities of food supply in emergency, optimized current operation process and the cost of food emergency logistics, detailed studies are listed as follows:
(1) This dissertation stated the concept, stage division, key workflow of food emergency logistics, improved the current food emergency logistics processes, especially the process of emergency response phase, summarized the food emergency logistics operation flow chart, obtained the optimized operation processes, and evalutaed the effect of its optimization by applying the AHP.
(2) This dissertation Combined the characteristics of food emergency logistics, proposed the concepts about emergency response capabilities and evaluation of food supply, described the design principles of evaluation index system based on process management, effectively formulated the evaluation index system by applying hierarchy entropy analysis, and constructed the evaluation model of emergency response capabilities of food supply based on risk analyses. Then the model was proved by an example.
(3) According to the reality, this dissertation proposed some reasonable assumptions about resource allocation problems of food emergency logistics, established the resource allocation optimization model, and solved the model by applying genetic algorithms.It gave an example to prove the model.
(4) This dissertation constructed the stochastic process model of emergency food in-time transportation by applying the stochastic process theory, obtained the mean continued time of emergency food transportation, which ensures reasonable fulfillment of food emergency logistics demand of time limit of transportation, and found the key and concerned the new method of improving the delivery process of emergency food.
(5) Based on previous analysis on operation processes of food emergency logistics, this dissertation propsed the new idea, and formed the optimization model which proved by data obtained from field research.
为确保食品应急物流系统正常运行并进行总结改进,有必要对食品应急物流进行监督评价和优化,主要对应急物流各环节运行是否有效,有无瓶颈或短板的存在等进行评价和优化分析。本文针对上述问题,通过资料检索、现场调研、建模分析等方法,在实际调研的基础上总结优化了现有的食品应急物流运作流程,对食品应急物流的应急能力进行评价,对食品应急物流方案进行优化分析。主要工作如下：
(1)分析食品应急物流的内涵、食品应急物流的阶段划分、食品应急物流的关键流程,对现有的食品应急物流流程尤其是应急响应阶段的流程进行改进,提出食品应急物流运作流程图和优化的运作流程,并应用层次分析法对其优化效果进行评估分析。
(2)从食品供应应急管理的全过程出发,结合突发事件食品应急物流的特性,提出突发事件食品供应应急能力和应急能力评价的概念,提出基于过程管理的评价指标体系设计原理、原则,构建全面体现和反映突发事件食品供应应急能力内涵的应急能力评价指标体系。引进熵理论对层次分析法确定的指标权重进行了修正,应用改进后的层次模糊综合评价模型,构建基于风险的突发事件食品供应应急能力评价模型,并采用案例进行分析研究
(3)根据实际情况对食品应急物流方案优化中的资源配置问题进行合理假设,建立食品物流应急资源配置的模型,并应用遗传算法对模型进行求解分析,最后辅之以算例。
(4)通过应用随机过程理论,建立突发事件应急食品及时送达的随机过程模型,得出应急食品送达延续时间的数学期望,与应急物流要求的送达期限进行比较,以确保应急食品及时送达目的地。并对应急食品送达满足应急物流要求运到期限的概率进行分析,找出应急食品送达的关键环节,提出改进应急食品送达流程的新方法
(5)在食品应急物流运作流程分析的基础上,提出了以先分析中后期再分析初期的逆向思维进行成本优化研究的新思路,应用成本管理理论建立食品应急物流成本优化模型,并以某突发事件食品应急物流的相关数据为支撑,进行实证研究。
Large numbers of people stranded, blocked, which are induced by large-scale public emergencies such as SARS, natural disaster, could be significantly harmful to the total production and people's lives of our country. In the public emergencies, it is crucial to ensure the life safty of people, which needs food supply to be guaranteed during such event. Therefore, the food emergency logistics is the most important essential during the whole emergency logistics activities. In order to make sure that the food emergency logistics system could be operated well, it is necessary to supervise, evaluate and optimize the food emergency logistics. The study mainly concerned whether all sectors of emergency logistics could operate effectively, and whether there were bttlenecks or short board in these sectors.
On the basis of surveys, this dissertation evaluated the emergency response capabilities of food supply in emergency, optimized current operation process and the cost of food emergency logistics, detailed studies are listed as follows:
(1) This dissertation stated the concept, stage division, key workflow of food emergency logistics, improved the current food emergency logistics processes, especially the process of emergency response phase, summarized the food emergency logistics operation flow chart, obtained the optimized operation processes, and evalutaed the effect of its optimization by applying the AHP.
(2) This dissertation Combined the characteristics of food emergency logistics, proposed the concepts about emergency response capabilities and evaluation of food supply, described the design principles of evaluation index system based on process management, effectively formulated the evaluation index system by applying hierarchy entropy analysis, and constructed the evaluation model of emergency response capabilities of food supply based on risk analyses. Then the model was proved by an example.
(3) According to the reality, this dissertation proposed some reasonable assumptions about resource allocation problems of food emergency logistics, established the resource allocation optimization model, and solved the model by applying genetic algorithms.It gave an example to prove the model.
(4) This dissertation constructed the stochastic process model of emergency food in-time transportation by applying the stochastic process theory, obtained the mean continued time of emergency food transportation, which ensures reasonable fulfillment of food emergency logistics demand of time limit of transportation, and found the key and concerned the new method of improving the delivery process of emergency food.
(5) Based on previous analysis on operation processes of food emergency logistics, this dissertation propsed the new idea, and formed the optimization model which proved by data obtained from field research.
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