我国通货膨胀指数修正研究
摘要
近20年来,围绕通货膨胀指标测度问题,理论界和实务界展开了丰富的研究,概括而言关注的焦点主要集中在宏观经济的两个领域,一是实体经济领域商品价格指数修正,二是金融经济领域资产价格对传统通货膨胀的影响。由此,形成了通货膨胀指标测度及货币政策框架调整问题的两种研究范式。
第一种研究范式的立论基础是传统通货膨胀衡量指标包含了大量短期供给冲击带来的价格噪音,使得CPI指数短期内出现剧烈波动,不能准确地衡量一般物价水平长期变化趋势。基于此,有人认为基于CPI的价格变动作出的宏观调控决策,难免失之偏颇。为消除CPI中短期波动成分对一般物价水平长期变动趋势的影响,人们提出运用“核心通货膨胀”作为通货膨胀长期变动趋势的度量。尤其是20世纪90年代以来,随着越来越多的国家纷纷以通货膨胀目标制作为中央银行货币政策框架,(尤其是欧美发达国家与部分新兴市场国家,比如英国、新西兰、澳大利亚、加拿大、以色列、巴西、泰国、韩国等),核心通货膨胀更是成为这些国家的货币当局十分关注的重点。在具体实践中,除了定期公布“标题通货膨胀”(Headline Inflation)指标之外,核心通货膨胀指标的稳定成为大多数国家中央银行实施货币政策的主要目标。
第二种研究范式讨论的焦点是是否将资产价格变量纳入通货膨胀指数当中。其研究的立论基础是随着经济发展和金融化率的提高,金融资产不断膨胀,居民在进行当期商品消费的同时,选择多渠道资产投资日益成为经济发展的常态。在这一趋势下,部分国家开始出现资产价格大幅上涨的同时,消费物价总指数保持相对稳定,不同市场体系价格运行呈现相互背离特征。资产价格的变化也因此成为影响货币供求,进而通货膨胀长期变动趋势的又一重要价格变量。因此,只盯住传统CPI变化而忽视资产价格因素作用的中央银行货币政策的有效性受到质疑。于是,介于资产价格变化对通货膨胀潜在变动趋势的影响,业界对于中央银行的货币政策决策参考信息集合中是否应该纳入资产价格变量、又以何种方式和方法予以考虑?尤其是在度量通货膨胀水平时要不要引入资产价格等问题争论不一。
具体到我国通货膨胀测度及货币政策价格稳定目标问题,其一,我们要不要测度我国的核心通货膨胀指数并将其作为人民银行反通胀措施的基础?其二我国的货币政策是否对资产价格波动作出积极响应?对此,目前我国理论界存在很大争议。争论的实质在于有没有必要在我国通胀指数测度中考虑短期价格噪音和资产价格冲击影响。对此,本文从通货膨胀的本质特征出发,认为货币政策价格稳定目标的本义应是重点关注广义价格指数(包括商品市场和资产市场)的长期变动趋势,并以此为立论基础,结合以上两种研究范式,展开对我国通货膨胀指数的修正研究。研究结果表明：实体经济短期价格噪音和资产价格膨胀对我国通胀指数变动趋势具有实质性影响,修正后的新指数能有效改善货币政策有效性。本文紧扣通胀指数修正这一中心问题层层展开,具体思路如下：
第一,我国传统通货膨胀指数存在的主要缺陷——解决是否修正的问题；
第二,如何对我国传统通胀膨胀指数进行修正——解决如何修正的问题；
第三,修正后的通胀指数能否改善货币政策有效性——回答修正指数的政策运用效果；
第四,面对短期价格噪音和资产价格膨胀对通货膨胀长期变动趋势的冲击,货币政策应如何作出反应——解决政策调整问题。
按照上述思路,全文共分七章,对以上问题展开深入剖析,主要内容如下：
第一章是导论。本章的核心在于研究问题的提出及研究文献回顾与评述。我们通过对已有文献的回顾,结合我国经济发展现实与通货膨胀指数运用实践,提出对我国通货膨胀指数进行修正的思想和着重要回答的四个问题,并对本文的研究思路及研究框架进行了展示。
第二章围绕本文提出的第一个问题,对我国传统通货膨胀指数编制与统计具体方法与内容进行了详细分析,充分揭示现行通货膨胀测度指标CPI存在价格噪音与信息丢失两方面缺陷,从而为下文进一步研究提供基础支撑。
第三章针对传统通胀指数存在的价格噪音问题,系统阐述核心通货膨胀产生的历史背景,并回答为什么直到20世纪70年代核心通通货膨胀才开始为人们所关注,并将其作为剔除短期价格噪音的指数修正方法。接着从货币数量理论和经济现实两个角度充分揭示运用核心通货膨胀对传统CPI进行修正的理论和现实依据。并进一步在比较分析核心通货膨胀指数统计口径与估计方法的基础上,结合我国CPI指数编制实践,提出建立符合我国国情的核心通货膨胀指数具体口径和方法。
第四章则通过建立一个三变量SVAR模型,根据我国CPI月度数据,对我国核心通货膨胀指数进行模型估计。本章首先根据核心通货膨胀本质定义,以我国CPI中各分类指数波动幅度大小为依据,实证分析了为什么选择食品价格作为模型冲击变量。然后通过模型估计,得出各期核心通胀指数估计值。模型估计结果显示,本文估计出的月度核心通胀率远比标题通货膨胀率更为平滑,波动率也更小,并与我国货币政策时间窗口拥有较好的契合度,能更好地反映通货膨胀变动趋势。
第五章针对传统通胀指数信息丢失问题,从理论和实践两个角度深入分析为什么要用资产价格对通胀指数进行修正。尽管关于资产价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀测度指数当中在理论上存在争论,但资产价格变化对货币供应冲击,进而影响通货膨胀未来走势已是不争的事实。本文第五章通过深刻剖析资产价格膨胀形成机理及其对通货膨胀作用机制,从理论上充分论证为什么在测度通货膨胀时要引入资产价格因素,从而为传统通胀指数的二次修正提供理论支持,并结合国内外金融资产膨胀对通货膨胀指数冲击的经验事实,进一步从实践上证明测度通货膨胀指数时引入资产价格的必要性。通过以上理论和实践两方面分析,具体回答为什么用资产价格对我国传统通货膨胀衡量指标进行修正。
第六章重点回答如何解决通胀指数测度中的信息丢失问题。本章首先系统阐述将资产价格引入通货膨胀指数测度当中的三种理论方法,并对上个世纪70年代以来,国外学者如何将以上理论方法运用到通货膨胀测度实践中有关思想进行了系统分析,在比较各种方法运用实际效果的基础上,最终选择动态因子指数法——DFI法作为本文运用资产价格对通货膨胀指数二次修正的具体方法。实证研究表明,在引入的三种资产价格中,债券资产由于与通货膨胀指数呈弱相关,未通过模型变量选择检验,最终进入修正指数模型的资产价格变量为房地产价格和股票价格。修正结果显示,整体上看资产价格对我国通货膨胀变动的贡献率超过20%,房地产价格比股票价格具有更好的通货膨胀预测作用,对通货膨胀率长期变动趋势影响更为明显。
本章最后部分运用三部门动态凯恩斯模型对修正指数是否能提高货币政策有效性进行实证检验和比较分析。检验结果显示,在三种不同政策偏好系数下,修正后的新指数相较于传统通货膨胀指数均能有效降低中央银行货币政策目标损失函数值,对提高政策运用效果有积极作用。
第七章根据前文的研究结论,提出在面对短期价格噪音和资产价格对通货膨胀长期变动趋势的影响下,货币政策应如何作出反应?本文认为货币政策价格稳定目标的重点是稳定通货膨胀长期变动趋势,并间接将资产价格纳入货币政策反应框架,通过政策工具的调整对资产价格大幅波动进行反应,以稳定通货膨胀预期。
本文的创新之处：
本文从通货膨胀货币本质定义出发,结合宏观经济发展现实,提出目前我国通货膨胀测度指标存在的两方面主要缺陷,而货币政策的价格稳定目标应立足于价格指数长期变动趋势和稳定通胀预期两个方面,即追求“中央银行价格指数”稳定,从而构成全文立论的基础,并试图从基于核心通货膨胀和资产价格两个视角对我国传统CPI指标进行二次修正。主要创新点如下：
1.食品价格波动是造成我国传统通货膨胀测度指标价格噪音的主要来源,通过引入食品价格作为模型的冲击变量,运用三变量SVAR模型对通货膨胀短期价格噪音进行识别并予以排除,最终得到的核心通货膨胀指数具有较小的波动率,能更好地刻画通货膨胀变动趋势。
2.尽管关于资产价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀测度指数在理论上存在争议,但本文分析显示资产价格膨胀对货币供给冲击,进而影响未来通货膨胀走势已是不争的事实。实证研究表明：
第一,债券资产因其与通货膨胀指数弱相关,未通过模型资产价格变量选择检验,说明债券价格变动对通货膨胀的影响可不予考虑；
第二,样本期内,资产价格在我国通货膨胀长期变动趋势中的权重超过20%,其中房地产价格比股票价格具有更好的通货膨胀预测作用,对通货膨胀率长期变动趋势的影响力更大。
第三,在不同政策偏好系数下,修正后的新指数相较于传统通货膨胀指数均能有效降低中央银行货币政策目标损失函数值,对提高政策运用效果有积极作用。
Since the past 20 years, the issue around the inflation target measure, has been carried out extensive research by theorists and practitioners. the focus of attention generally integrated on two areas of macroeconomic which included into goods price index correction in real economy and impact of traditional economic inflation in financial asset prices. Therefore, there has been formed the two research paradigms of measuring inflation index and adjusting the framework of monetary policy.
The first argument has based on the paradigm of the traditional measure of inflation, which shows the phenomena of a large number of short-term prices supply shocks bring the prices noise, making the CPI index short term volatility that is not an accurate measure of long-term trend of the general price level, which makes people believe that the price based on changes in CPI to the macro-control policies is inevitably biased. For eliminating the influence of long-term change trends in the general price level due to the components of CPI short-term fluctuations, people has maken use of "core inflation" as a inflation measure of long-term change in trend. Especially since the 90s of the 20th century, core inflation has become the focus of attention in monetary authorities in European and American countries and some emerging market countries, such as the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia, Canada,Israel, Brazil, Thailand, Korea, etc, as more and more countries have making the inflation target system the central bank's monetary policy framework. In addition to regularly publishing the "headline inflation" indicators, the stability of core inflation has become the main objective of monetary policy in central banks of most countries.
The second research paradigm has focused on the discussion of whether making the asset price inflation index included among the variables. The argument is based on the situation that residents select multi-channel asset investment has increasingly become the norm while they consume current goods for economic development with economic and financial, financial assets continuing to expand. In this trend, it showed the rise in asset prices in some countries, while consumer price index remained relatively stable, and prices in different market system showed departure from their characteristics. Thus changes in asset prices as another important variable indicated an impact on money supply and demand, and long-term change in trend inflation. Therefore, effectiveness of monetary policy in the central bank has been questioned for only staring at the traditional CPI change, but ignoring the role of asset price factors. Then, there has introduced controversial issues in whether include asset price variables and its ways and means in the consideration of monetary policy decision due to the effect of asset price changes on inflation trends.
Specifically speaking, we can take account of china's issues of measuring inflation and price stability of monetary policy objective, which include as firstly, whether we should measure China's core inflation index to be the basis for anti-inflation measures in central bank; secondly, whether China's monetary policy respond positively on asset price fluctuations. In this regard, the dissertation departed from the essential characteristics of inflation, and took the theoretical basis as the fundamental meaning of price stability objective in monetary policy which explored that it should be to focus on long-term change of trend in the general price index (including commodity market and capital market). Combining these two research paradigms, this paper has expanded on the revision of the inflation index by answering the following questions.
1. What are the main traditional shortcomings in China's inflation index--to resolve the issue of whether to amend. To answering this question, the paper has elaborated the specific method and content on constructing and statisticating the traditional inflation index, and reveal that there are two aspects of disadvantages in both price noise and information loss defects in the process of measuring current inflation index CPI so as to provide a basis for supporting further research in second chapter.
2. How to amend the traditional inflation index--to resolve the issue of how to amend. This dissertation has focused on this question.
Firstly, it discussed the problem of price noise. In third chapter, it proposed the idea of using core inflation to amend the CPI index, then fully revealed theoretical and practical basis on core inflation to amend the traditional CPI index from the two angle of the quantity theory of money and economic realities. In chapter four, it made a comprehensive analysis on statistical coverage and estimation methods in core inflation index. Through a three-variable SVAR model, it carried out the model estimation in the core inflation index according to China's monthly CPI data. The results showed that the estimated monthly core inflation was smoother, and smaller in volatility rate than headline inflation rate, and had a better fit with the policy time window, which could make a better reflect changes in inflation trends.
Secondly, it discussed the problem of information loss in asset price. In chapter five, it profoundly analysed the mechanism of asset price inflation for providing support in amending the traditional theory of inflation index, and clarified the realistic basement for amending traditional inflation index by using assets price combined with the impacting facts to the inflation index in domestic and foreign financial assets inflation. In chapter six, it made the final choice DFI method as guiding idea to apply assets price for re-amending core inflation index in China through the analysis of the evolutionary ideas and methods in amending inflation index since 1970s.
(1) Whether the revised inflation index can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy--to answer the amending effect. In the last part of chapter six it applied dynamic three-sector model for empirical test and comparative analysis, which showed that the new amended index could improve the effects of monetary policy compared with the traditional CPI.
(2) Under the new circumstances, how monetary policy deal with the new inflation index--to resolve the problems of policy adjustment. In chapter seven, it proposed relevant policy recommendations for monetary policy objectives and policy tools adjustment combined with the reality of China's economic development, drawing on international experience and practice.
The innovation in this dissertation is mainly reflected in two aspects:
1. Perspective Innovation--It started from the natural definition of monetary inflation, and proposed two major shortcomings existing in China's current inflation index indicators combined with the realities of macroeconomic developments. In addition, the price stability objective of monetary policy should be based on the two aspects of long-term changes in price index trend and stabilizing inflation expectations, which means the pursuit of Central Bank's price index stability. The above analysis constitutes the basis of this dissertation, and tried to make the second amendment for China's traditional CPI index from two aspects based on core inflation and asset prices in order to acquire the new inflation index which could have a better reflect on the nature of price inflation.
2. Research Ideas and Content Innovation。It closely discussed around the central question of this issue, which was amending inflation index, to expandly analyse correction basis, correction method and practice, results testing and policy adjusting through introducing inflation index's second amendment on the basis of removing the inflation index impact of short-term supply shocks, so as to build a comprehensive analytical framework for studing the problem of inflation measuring indicators.
第一种研究范式的立论基础是传统通货膨胀衡量指标包含了大量短期供给冲击带来的价格噪音,使得CPI指数短期内出现剧烈波动,不能准确地衡量一般物价水平长期变化趋势。基于此,有人认为基于CPI的价格变动作出的宏观调控决策,难免失之偏颇。为消除CPI中短期波动成分对一般物价水平长期变动趋势的影响,人们提出运用“核心通货膨胀”作为通货膨胀长期变动趋势的度量。尤其是20世纪90年代以来,随着越来越多的国家纷纷以通货膨胀目标制作为中央银行货币政策框架,(尤其是欧美发达国家与部分新兴市场国家,比如英国、新西兰、澳大利亚、加拿大、以色列、巴西、泰国、韩国等),核心通货膨胀更是成为这些国家的货币当局十分关注的重点。在具体实践中,除了定期公布“标题通货膨胀”(Headline Inflation)指标之外,核心通货膨胀指标的稳定成为大多数国家中央银行实施货币政策的主要目标。
第二种研究范式讨论的焦点是是否将资产价格变量纳入通货膨胀指数当中。其研究的立论基础是随着经济发展和金融化率的提高,金融资产不断膨胀,居民在进行当期商品消费的同时,选择多渠道资产投资日益成为经济发展的常态。在这一趋势下,部分国家开始出现资产价格大幅上涨的同时,消费物价总指数保持相对稳定,不同市场体系价格运行呈现相互背离特征。资产价格的变化也因此成为影响货币供求,进而通货膨胀长期变动趋势的又一重要价格变量。因此,只盯住传统CPI变化而忽视资产价格因素作用的中央银行货币政策的有效性受到质疑。于是,介于资产价格变化对通货膨胀潜在变动趋势的影响,业界对于中央银行的货币政策决策参考信息集合中是否应该纳入资产价格变量、又以何种方式和方法予以考虑?尤其是在度量通货膨胀水平时要不要引入资产价格等问题争论不一。
具体到我国通货膨胀测度及货币政策价格稳定目标问题,其一,我们要不要测度我国的核心通货膨胀指数并将其作为人民银行反通胀措施的基础?其二我国的货币政策是否对资产价格波动作出积极响应?对此,目前我国理论界存在很大争议。争论的实质在于有没有必要在我国通胀指数测度中考虑短期价格噪音和资产价格冲击影响。对此,本文从通货膨胀的本质特征出发,认为货币政策价格稳定目标的本义应是重点关注广义价格指数(包括商品市场和资产市场)的长期变动趋势,并以此为立论基础,结合以上两种研究范式,展开对我国通货膨胀指数的修正研究。研究结果表明：实体经济短期价格噪音和资产价格膨胀对我国通胀指数变动趋势具有实质性影响,修正后的新指数能有效改善货币政策有效性。本文紧扣通胀指数修正这一中心问题层层展开,具体思路如下：
第一,我国传统通货膨胀指数存在的主要缺陷——解决是否修正的问题；
第二,如何对我国传统通胀膨胀指数进行修正——解决如何修正的问题；
第三,修正后的通胀指数能否改善货币政策有效性——回答修正指数的政策运用效果；
第四,面对短期价格噪音和资产价格膨胀对通货膨胀长期变动趋势的冲击,货币政策应如何作出反应——解决政策调整问题。
按照上述思路,全文共分七章,对以上问题展开深入剖析,主要内容如下：
第一章是导论。本章的核心在于研究问题的提出及研究文献回顾与评述。我们通过对已有文献的回顾,结合我国经济发展现实与通货膨胀指数运用实践,提出对我国通货膨胀指数进行修正的思想和着重要回答的四个问题,并对本文的研究思路及研究框架进行了展示。
第二章围绕本文提出的第一个问题,对我国传统通货膨胀指数编制与统计具体方法与内容进行了详细分析,充分揭示现行通货膨胀测度指标CPI存在价格噪音与信息丢失两方面缺陷,从而为下文进一步研究提供基础支撑。
第三章针对传统通胀指数存在的价格噪音问题,系统阐述核心通货膨胀产生的历史背景,并回答为什么直到20世纪70年代核心通通货膨胀才开始为人们所关注,并将其作为剔除短期价格噪音的指数修正方法。接着从货币数量理论和经济现实两个角度充分揭示运用核心通货膨胀对传统CPI进行修正的理论和现实依据。并进一步在比较分析核心通货膨胀指数统计口径与估计方法的基础上,结合我国CPI指数编制实践,提出建立符合我国国情的核心通货膨胀指数具体口径和方法。
第四章则通过建立一个三变量SVAR模型,根据我国CPI月度数据,对我国核心通货膨胀指数进行模型估计。本章首先根据核心通货膨胀本质定义,以我国CPI中各分类指数波动幅度大小为依据,实证分析了为什么选择食品价格作为模型冲击变量。然后通过模型估计,得出各期核心通胀指数估计值。模型估计结果显示,本文估计出的月度核心通胀率远比标题通货膨胀率更为平滑,波动率也更小,并与我国货币政策时间窗口拥有较好的契合度,能更好地反映通货膨胀变动趋势。
第五章针对传统通胀指数信息丢失问题,从理论和实践两个角度深入分析为什么要用资产价格对通胀指数进行修正。尽管关于资产价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀测度指数当中在理论上存在争论,但资产价格变化对货币供应冲击,进而影响通货膨胀未来走势已是不争的事实。本文第五章通过深刻剖析资产价格膨胀形成机理及其对通货膨胀作用机制,从理论上充分论证为什么在测度通货膨胀时要引入资产价格因素,从而为传统通胀指数的二次修正提供理论支持,并结合国内外金融资产膨胀对通货膨胀指数冲击的经验事实,进一步从实践上证明测度通货膨胀指数时引入资产价格的必要性。通过以上理论和实践两方面分析,具体回答为什么用资产价格对我国传统通货膨胀衡量指标进行修正。
第六章重点回答如何解决通胀指数测度中的信息丢失问题。本章首先系统阐述将资产价格引入通货膨胀指数测度当中的三种理论方法,并对上个世纪70年代以来,国外学者如何将以上理论方法运用到通货膨胀测度实践中有关思想进行了系统分析,在比较各种方法运用实际效果的基础上,最终选择动态因子指数法——DFI法作为本文运用资产价格对通货膨胀指数二次修正的具体方法。实证研究表明,在引入的三种资产价格中,债券资产由于与通货膨胀指数呈弱相关,未通过模型变量选择检验,最终进入修正指数模型的资产价格变量为房地产价格和股票价格。修正结果显示,整体上看资产价格对我国通货膨胀变动的贡献率超过20%,房地产价格比股票价格具有更好的通货膨胀预测作用,对通货膨胀率长期变动趋势影响更为明显。
本章最后部分运用三部门动态凯恩斯模型对修正指数是否能提高货币政策有效性进行实证检验和比较分析。检验结果显示,在三种不同政策偏好系数下,修正后的新指数相较于传统通货膨胀指数均能有效降低中央银行货币政策目标损失函数值,对提高政策运用效果有积极作用。
第七章根据前文的研究结论,提出在面对短期价格噪音和资产价格对通货膨胀长期变动趋势的影响下,货币政策应如何作出反应?本文认为货币政策价格稳定目标的重点是稳定通货膨胀长期变动趋势,并间接将资产价格纳入货币政策反应框架,通过政策工具的调整对资产价格大幅波动进行反应,以稳定通货膨胀预期。
本文的创新之处：
本文从通货膨胀货币本质定义出发,结合宏观经济发展现实,提出目前我国通货膨胀测度指标存在的两方面主要缺陷,而货币政策的价格稳定目标应立足于价格指数长期变动趋势和稳定通胀预期两个方面,即追求“中央银行价格指数”稳定,从而构成全文立论的基础,并试图从基于核心通货膨胀和资产价格两个视角对我国传统CPI指标进行二次修正。主要创新点如下：
1.食品价格波动是造成我国传统通货膨胀测度指标价格噪音的主要来源,通过引入食品价格作为模型的冲击变量,运用三变量SVAR模型对通货膨胀短期价格噪音进行识别并予以排除,最终得到的核心通货膨胀指数具有较小的波动率,能更好地刻画通货膨胀变动趋势。
2.尽管关于资产价格是否应该纳入通货膨胀测度指数在理论上存在争议,但本文分析显示资产价格膨胀对货币供给冲击,进而影响未来通货膨胀走势已是不争的事实。实证研究表明：
第一,债券资产因其与通货膨胀指数弱相关,未通过模型资产价格变量选择检验,说明债券价格变动对通货膨胀的影响可不予考虑；
第二,样本期内,资产价格在我国通货膨胀长期变动趋势中的权重超过20%,其中房地产价格比股票价格具有更好的通货膨胀预测作用,对通货膨胀率长期变动趋势的影响力更大。
第三,在不同政策偏好系数下,修正后的新指数相较于传统通货膨胀指数均能有效降低中央银行货币政策目标损失函数值,对提高政策运用效果有积极作用。
Since the past 20 years, the issue around the inflation target measure, has been carried out extensive research by theorists and practitioners. the focus of attention generally integrated on two areas of macroeconomic which included into goods price index correction in real economy and impact of traditional economic inflation in financial asset prices. Therefore, there has been formed the two research paradigms of measuring inflation index and adjusting the framework of monetary policy.
The first argument has based on the paradigm of the traditional measure of inflation, which shows the phenomena of a large number of short-term prices supply shocks bring the prices noise, making the CPI index short term volatility that is not an accurate measure of long-term trend of the general price level, which makes people believe that the price based on changes in CPI to the macro-control policies is inevitably biased. For eliminating the influence of long-term change trends in the general price level due to the components of CPI short-term fluctuations, people has maken use of "core inflation" as a inflation measure of long-term change in trend. Especially since the 90s of the 20th century, core inflation has become the focus of attention in monetary authorities in European and American countries and some emerging market countries, such as the United Kingdom, New Zealand, Australia, Canada,Israel, Brazil, Thailand, Korea, etc, as more and more countries have making the inflation target system the central bank's monetary policy framework. In addition to regularly publishing the "headline inflation" indicators, the stability of core inflation has become the main objective of monetary policy in central banks of most countries.
The second research paradigm has focused on the discussion of whether making the asset price inflation index included among the variables. The argument is based on the situation that residents select multi-channel asset investment has increasingly become the norm while they consume current goods for economic development with economic and financial, financial assets continuing to expand. In this trend, it showed the rise in asset prices in some countries, while consumer price index remained relatively stable, and prices in different market system showed departure from their characteristics. Thus changes in asset prices as another important variable indicated an impact on money supply and demand, and long-term change in trend inflation. Therefore, effectiveness of monetary policy in the central bank has been questioned for only staring at the traditional CPI change, but ignoring the role of asset price factors. Then, there has introduced controversial issues in whether include asset price variables and its ways and means in the consideration of monetary policy decision due to the effect of asset price changes on inflation trends.
Specifically speaking, we can take account of china's issues of measuring inflation and price stability of monetary policy objective, which include as firstly, whether we should measure China's core inflation index to be the basis for anti-inflation measures in central bank; secondly, whether China's monetary policy respond positively on asset price fluctuations. In this regard, the dissertation departed from the essential characteristics of inflation, and took the theoretical basis as the fundamental meaning of price stability objective in monetary policy which explored that it should be to focus on long-term change of trend in the general price index (including commodity market and capital market). Combining these two research paradigms, this paper has expanded on the revision of the inflation index by answering the following questions.
1. What are the main traditional shortcomings in China's inflation index--to resolve the issue of whether to amend. To answering this question, the paper has elaborated the specific method and content on constructing and statisticating the traditional inflation index, and reveal that there are two aspects of disadvantages in both price noise and information loss defects in the process of measuring current inflation index CPI so as to provide a basis for supporting further research in second chapter.
2. How to amend the traditional inflation index--to resolve the issue of how to amend. This dissertation has focused on this question.
Firstly, it discussed the problem of price noise. In third chapter, it proposed the idea of using core inflation to amend the CPI index, then fully revealed theoretical and practical basis on core inflation to amend the traditional CPI index from the two angle of the quantity theory of money and economic realities. In chapter four, it made a comprehensive analysis on statistical coverage and estimation methods in core inflation index. Through a three-variable SVAR model, it carried out the model estimation in the core inflation index according to China's monthly CPI data. The results showed that the estimated monthly core inflation was smoother, and smaller in volatility rate than headline inflation rate, and had a better fit with the policy time window, which could make a better reflect changes in inflation trends.
Secondly, it discussed the problem of information loss in asset price. In chapter five, it profoundly analysed the mechanism of asset price inflation for providing support in amending the traditional theory of inflation index, and clarified the realistic basement for amending traditional inflation index by using assets price combined with the impacting facts to the inflation index in domestic and foreign financial assets inflation. In chapter six, it made the final choice DFI method as guiding idea to apply assets price for re-amending core inflation index in China through the analysis of the evolutionary ideas and methods in amending inflation index since 1970s.
(1) Whether the revised inflation index can improve the effectiveness of monetary policy--to answer the amending effect. In the last part of chapter six it applied dynamic three-sector model for empirical test and comparative analysis, which showed that the new amended index could improve the effects of monetary policy compared with the traditional CPI.
(2) Under the new circumstances, how monetary policy deal with the new inflation index--to resolve the problems of policy adjustment. In chapter seven, it proposed relevant policy recommendations for monetary policy objectives and policy tools adjustment combined with the reality of China's economic development, drawing on international experience and practice.
The innovation in this dissertation is mainly reflected in two aspects:
1. Perspective Innovation--It started from the natural definition of monetary inflation, and proposed two major shortcomings existing in China's current inflation index indicators combined with the realities of macroeconomic developments. In addition, the price stability objective of monetary policy should be based on the two aspects of long-term changes in price index trend and stabilizing inflation expectations, which means the pursuit of Central Bank's price index stability. The above analysis constitutes the basis of this dissertation, and tried to make the second amendment for China's traditional CPI index from two aspects based on core inflation and asset prices in order to acquire the new inflation index which could have a better reflect on the nature of price inflation.
2. Research Ideas and Content Innovation。It closely discussed around the central question of this issue, which was amending inflation index, to expandly analyse correction basis, correction method and practice, results testing and policy adjusting through introducing inflation index's second amendment on the basis of removing the inflation index impact of short-term supply shocks, so as to build a comprehensive analytical framework for studing the problem of inflation measuring indicators.
引文
1龙革生 曾令华 黄山：我国核心通货膨胀的实证比较研究,《统计研究》,2008.3。
2中国人民银行武汉分行、国家统计局湖北调查总队联合课题组：关于建立中国核心CPI问题的研究,《金融研究》,2006.02。
7赵昕东：基于SVAR模型的中国核心通货膨胀的估计与应用,《统计研究》,2008.07。
8刘建伟 彭建霞 罗兰：核心消费价格指数的理论与应用,《统计研究》,2006年第10期,P19。
10谭本艳：我国核心通货膨胀问题研究[D],2009.05,P21-24。
11长期供给冲击就是指技术进步、知识积累所引起的劳动生产率提高对价格的影响。
12总需求冲击是指政府支出或货币供给变化对价格的影响。
13赵听东,“基于SVAR模型的中国核心通货膨胀的估计与应用”,《统计研究》,2008.07,P48
14转引自中国人民银行武汉分行、国家统计局湖北调查总队联合课题组：《关于建立中国核心CPI问题的研究》,《金融研究》2006年第2期。
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2中国人民银行武汉分行、国家统计局湖北调查总队联合课题组：关于建立中国核心CPI问题的研究,《金融研究》,2006.02。
7赵昕东：基于SVAR模型的中国核心通货膨胀的估计与应用,《统计研究》,2008.07。
8刘建伟 彭建霞 罗兰：核心消费价格指数的理论与应用,《统计研究》,2006年第10期,P19。
10谭本艳：我国核心通货膨胀问题研究[D],2009.05,P21-24。
11长期供给冲击就是指技术进步、知识积累所引起的劳动生产率提高对价格的影响。
12总需求冲击是指政府支出或货币供给变化对价格的影响。
13赵听东,“基于SVAR模型的中国核心通货膨胀的估计与应用”,《统计研究》,2008.07,P48
14转引自中国人民银行武汉分行、国家统计局湖北调查总队联合课题组：《关于建立中国核心CPI问题的研究》,《金融研究》2006年第2期。
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17未来即期价格是指未来某—时点某种商品或服务的即期价格。
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21陈雨露,汪昌云：金融学文献通论,中国人民大学出版社,2006年4月,P113-115。
22肖崎：金融资产膨胀下货币政策的困境和对策研究,[D].2007年
23具体解释见肖崎“金融资产膨胀下货币政策的困境和对策研究”第110页。
24转引自中国人民银行武汉分行货币信贷处、中国人民银行宜昌市中心支行课题组《金融创新对我国货币供应量及其统计的影响》,《金融参考》,2006(11)。
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