上海市工业劳动生产率变动对就业的影响
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摘要
发展经济学从静态角度分析劳动生产率、产出和就业之间的关系,发现劳动生产率增长意味着节约劳动力,短期会出现资本替代劳动力的现象,即产生劳动生产率增长对就业的“替代效应”。但根据凯恩斯的就业理论,提高劳动生产率将扩大就业机会。长期来看,劳动生产率增长会引发产品价格下降、投资增加、新产品出现等连锁反应。劳动生产率增长会降低生产成本,使产品价格降低,从而带动产品需求增长,进而增加产出和劳动力需求；劳动生产率增长节约了资本,而节约的资本用于投资,又会增加劳动力需求；新产品出现所导致的劳动生产率增长,将会随之带来产出的扩张和就业的增加。即劳动生产率增长对就业的“补偿效应”。回顾有关工业劳动生产率与就业的相关研究文献可以发现,对于劳动生产率对就业的影响究竟是哪一种效应占主要地位,目前存在一定的争论,仍有待于进一步的研究。
改革开放以来,上海作为中国社会主义市场经济建设的领头羊,经济实力与科技水平在国内处于领先地位,劳动生产率的提高取得了长足的进展。目前上海已经步入工业化后期阶段,面临从第二产业为主向第三产业为主转变的关键时期。经济结构升级、社会分工深化、技术进步的作用急剧上升,原有的要素禀赋优势正在发生根本性改变。同时,随着上海市外来人口的不断增加,面临的就业形势也愈加严峻。在这样一种时代背景下,研究劳动生产率的变化对劳动力市场和就业的影响就显得尤为重要和迫切。
因此,在此背景下,本文通过对改革开放以来上海市工业劳动生产率与就业发展变化历程的深入研究,试图探讨上海市工业劳动生产率以及就业发展变化的规律,并对影响它们的主要因素进行研究分析。在此基础上,重点分析上海市工业劳动生产率对上海市就业总量与结构的影响。本文通过构建计量模型,从宏观实证研究到微观案例分析、从静态长期均衡到动态扰动分析,研究上海市工业劳动生产率与产业间、行业间、企业间就业总量与结构的关系,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。
本文共分为六章：
第一章绪论。介绍了本文的选题背景和意义、相关概念的界定、给出了国内外专家学者的研究成果综述以及本文的数据来源和研究框架。
第二章与第三章主要运用自改革开放30年以来的上海市历史统计数据,从宏观层面对上海市工业劳动生产率以及就业变动发展的状况和趋势进行分析,并运用横向比较、二维分析、弹性和偏离度等方法对上海市工业劳动生产率以及就业的变化规律与结构变迁展开进一步的分析。
第四章与第五章研究劳动生产率增长与就业变动的关系。其中第四章主要运用计量经济模型对上海市工业劳动生产率对就业总量的影响进行了分析,而第五章则从静态和动态两个方面分别对工业劳动生产率对产业间就业结构和工业内部就业结构进行了分析,并运用案例分析将宏观分析进一步深化到企业微观层面。
第六章对全文进行了总结,并以前面四章的分析为基础,提出在经济转型的背景下,实现上海工业劳动生产率持续增长和实现充分就业的若干对策。
本文的创新点大体上可概括为：
(一)首次以上海市工业劳动生产率的平均水平作为基准,分别以发展水平和增速两个维度对上海市工业内部各行业2000—2007年规模以上工业企业的相关数据进行二维分析,勾勒出上海市工业内部各行业劳动生产率的分布格局。
(二)从替代效应与补偿效应出发,通过构建协整模型与VAR模型,分别从静态与动态、短期与长期等不同角度比较系统地对上海市工业劳动生产率对就业总量的影响进行了分析。
(三)系统地分析了上海市工业劳动生产率对上海市就业结构变迁的影响。
Development Economics found that labor productivity growth mean labor-saving,which analyzed the relationship of labor productivity, output and employment from static angle.And it appeared that capital replace labor force in the short time,which is the "replacement effect" of labor productivity growth to employment.But according to Keynes'employment theory,improving labor productivity will increase employment opportunities.Labor productivity growth will lead to a chain reaction in the long term such as falling price,increased investment and new products.It will reduce production costs,lower product prices,thereby stimulating growth in product demand,thus increasing output and labor demand.And it saved capital,while the savings of capital be used in invest-ment will increase the demanding for labor.The emergence of new products lead to labor productivity growth,which will ensue expansion of output and employ-ment increase, which is the "compensation effect" of labor productivity growth to employment. By reviewing the literature of industrial labor productivity and employment, we can find that there are some controversy at present about what kind of effect is dominant, that it remains to be further research.
As the leader in the construction of China's socialist market economy since the reform and opening-up, the economic potentiality and the technical level of Shanghai in domestic are in the leading position, and the labor productivity growth has made considerable progress. At present, Shanghai has entered the later stages of industrialization and faces the critical period that the leading position is shift from the second industry to tertiary industry. The function of economic structure upgrading, Social division of labor deepening and technological progress rises quickly. The original factor endowments advantage is undergoing a fundamental change. At the same time, with the growing nonlocal population in Shanghai, we are faced with the employment situation will become more severe. In such a backdrop of the times, research on the impact of the change of industrial labor productivity on employment is particularly important and urgent. Therefore, on this background, by in-depth study of the course of the development and changes of industrial labor productivity and employment of Shanghai since the reform and opening-up, this article attempts to explore the law of the development and changes of industrial labor productivity and employment of Shanghai, and analyze the major factor affect them. And it focus on the analysis of total quantity and structure's impact of the change of industrial labor productivity on employment. By building econometric models, this article study the total quantity and structure relationships between industrial labor productivity and employment of inter-industry and inter-firm, and on this basis put forward relevant policy recommendations.
This article altogether divides into six parts:
The first part is "Introduction". This part introduced the article topic's background and significance, domestic and foreign research results, source of the data and the framework of the article.
The second part and the third part analyze current status and trends of the changes and development of Shanghai industrial labor productivity and employment at the macro level by mainly using the statistical data of shanghai since the reform and opening-up, and by using the methods of horizontal comparison, two-dimensional analysis, flexibility and degree of deviation for further analysis.
The fourth part and the fifth part studies he relationship between labor productivity growth and employment changes.And the former stress the impact of total employment total quantity, the latter focuses on the impact of structure.
The sixth part summarizes the full text and puts forward some policy proposals.
The innovation of this paper in general can be summarized in three points:
1. For the first time, this paper classify industrial sectors of Shanghai by using two-dimensional analysis.
2.This article study the impact of the change of industrial labor productivity on employment systematically by constructing cointegration and VAR model.
3.This article study the impact of industrial labor productivity on the changes in the structure of employment in Shanghai systematically.
改革开放以来,上海作为中国社会主义市场经济建设的领头羊,经济实力与科技水平在国内处于领先地位,劳动生产率的提高取得了长足的进展。目前上海已经步入工业化后期阶段,面临从第二产业为主向第三产业为主转变的关键时期。经济结构升级、社会分工深化、技术进步的作用急剧上升,原有的要素禀赋优势正在发生根本性改变。同时,随着上海市外来人口的不断增加,面临的就业形势也愈加严峻。在这样一种时代背景下,研究劳动生产率的变化对劳动力市场和就业的影响就显得尤为重要和迫切。
因此,在此背景下,本文通过对改革开放以来上海市工业劳动生产率与就业发展变化历程的深入研究,试图探讨上海市工业劳动生产率以及就业发展变化的规律,并对影响它们的主要因素进行研究分析。在此基础上,重点分析上海市工业劳动生产率对上海市就业总量与结构的影响。本文通过构建计量模型,从宏观实证研究到微观案例分析、从静态长期均衡到动态扰动分析,研究上海市工业劳动生产率与产业间、行业间、企业间就业总量与结构的关系,并在此基础上提出了相关政策建议。
本文共分为六章：
第一章绪论。介绍了本文的选题背景和意义、相关概念的界定、给出了国内外专家学者的研究成果综述以及本文的数据来源和研究框架。
第二章与第三章主要运用自改革开放30年以来的上海市历史统计数据,从宏观层面对上海市工业劳动生产率以及就业变动发展的状况和趋势进行分析,并运用横向比较、二维分析、弹性和偏离度等方法对上海市工业劳动生产率以及就业的变化规律与结构变迁展开进一步的分析。
第四章与第五章研究劳动生产率增长与就业变动的关系。其中第四章主要运用计量经济模型对上海市工业劳动生产率对就业总量的影响进行了分析,而第五章则从静态和动态两个方面分别对工业劳动生产率对产业间就业结构和工业内部就业结构进行了分析,并运用案例分析将宏观分析进一步深化到企业微观层面。
第六章对全文进行了总结,并以前面四章的分析为基础,提出在经济转型的背景下,实现上海工业劳动生产率持续增长和实现充分就业的若干对策。
本文的创新点大体上可概括为：
(一)首次以上海市工业劳动生产率的平均水平作为基准,分别以发展水平和增速两个维度对上海市工业内部各行业2000—2007年规模以上工业企业的相关数据进行二维分析,勾勒出上海市工业内部各行业劳动生产率的分布格局。
(二)从替代效应与补偿效应出发,通过构建协整模型与VAR模型,分别从静态与动态、短期与长期等不同角度比较系统地对上海市工业劳动生产率对就业总量的影响进行了分析。
(三)系统地分析了上海市工业劳动生产率对上海市就业结构变迁的影响。
Development Economics found that labor productivity growth mean labor-saving,which analyzed the relationship of labor productivity, output and employment from static angle.And it appeared that capital replace labor force in the short time,which is the "replacement effect" of labor productivity growth to employment.But according to Keynes'employment theory,improving labor productivity will increase employment opportunities.Labor productivity growth will lead to a chain reaction in the long term such as falling price,increased investment and new products.It will reduce production costs,lower product prices,thereby stimulating growth in product demand,thus increasing output and labor demand.And it saved capital,while the savings of capital be used in invest-ment will increase the demanding for labor.The emergence of new products lead to labor productivity growth,which will ensue expansion of output and employ-ment increase, which is the "compensation effect" of labor productivity growth to employment. By reviewing the literature of industrial labor productivity and employment, we can find that there are some controversy at present about what kind of effect is dominant, that it remains to be further research.
As the leader in the construction of China's socialist market economy since the reform and opening-up, the economic potentiality and the technical level of Shanghai in domestic are in the leading position, and the labor productivity growth has made considerable progress. At present, Shanghai has entered the later stages of industrialization and faces the critical period that the leading position is shift from the second industry to tertiary industry. The function of economic structure upgrading, Social division of labor deepening and technological progress rises quickly. The original factor endowments advantage is undergoing a fundamental change. At the same time, with the growing nonlocal population in Shanghai, we are faced with the employment situation will become more severe. In such a backdrop of the times, research on the impact of the change of industrial labor productivity on employment is particularly important and urgent. Therefore, on this background, by in-depth study of the course of the development and changes of industrial labor productivity and employment of Shanghai since the reform and opening-up, this article attempts to explore the law of the development and changes of industrial labor productivity and employment of Shanghai, and analyze the major factor affect them. And it focus on the analysis of total quantity and structure's impact of the change of industrial labor productivity on employment. By building econometric models, this article study the total quantity and structure relationships between industrial labor productivity and employment of inter-industry and inter-firm, and on this basis put forward relevant policy recommendations.
This article altogether divides into six parts:
The first part is "Introduction". This part introduced the article topic's background and significance, domestic and foreign research results, source of the data and the framework of the article.
The second part and the third part analyze current status and trends of the changes and development of Shanghai industrial labor productivity and employment at the macro level by mainly using the statistical data of shanghai since the reform and opening-up, and by using the methods of horizontal comparison, two-dimensional analysis, flexibility and degree of deviation for further analysis.
The fourth part and the fifth part studies he relationship between labor productivity growth and employment changes.And the former stress the impact of total employment total quantity, the latter focuses on the impact of structure.
The sixth part summarizes the full text and puts forward some policy proposals.
The innovation of this paper in general can be summarized in three points:
1. For the first time, this paper classify industrial sectors of Shanghai by using two-dimensional analysis.
2.This article study the impact of the change of industrial labor productivity on employment systematically by constructing cointegration and VAR model.
3.This article study the impact of industrial labor productivity on the changes in the structure of employment in Shanghai systematically.
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