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回顾中国轿车的发展历程、阶段及其发展关键
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摘要
本篇论文首先介绍了汽车史上具有里程碑意义的车型和世界各国汽车工业的发展历程,阐述了汽车技术的发展趋势。结合当今国际汽车产业兼并重组现象的分析,提出了“新兴市场做加法、发达市场做减法”的新竞争格局已经形成的观点。通过研究当今汽车零部件的产业特点提出了零部件企业的发展、零部件技术特点、零部件产业价值分配的趋势。
     结合中国的政治环境、经济体制、国家政策、工业发展和科技水平,叙述中国50年来轿车发展的历程,提出了我国轿车工业三个的发展阶段。
     根据我国轿车工业的历史和现状,结合中国轿车自主创新民族品牌的形成过程,得出具有核心技术的自主创新民族品牌是中国轿车工业发展的首要问题。
     通过对我国轿车的自主创新模式的讨论,说明了具有核心技术自主创新民族品牌对中国轿车工业发展的重要性。提出了发展科学技术,重视自主创新是中国轿车发展的关键。
     通过对红旗系列车型(包括奔腾)的自主创新过程的讨论,为自主品牌轿车提供了可借鉴的范例。
     通过对轿车高速运行的空气动力学的设计、实验方法的讨论。讨论了行驶系统、电控系统、转向系统、制动系统等对操控稳定性设计的影响,分析了操控稳定性的评价方法。讨论了车身结构设计、车身材料应用对减重设计的影响,并对国内、外品牌对轿车的减重设计进行了分析和展望。
The thesis makes a detailed introduction to the development of car industry and famous cars in the world and discusses the technological development and current state of cars: in car designing, great breakthroughs have been made in car body, dynamical systems, electrommunication, security technology, and environmental techniques; flexible manufacturing systems are widely applied in car production; functions of car have been developed from specificity to diversity.
     With more annexations and reorganizations among the international car industry, further analysis is made into the failed and successful cases. Since international annexations and reorganizations have slowed down and there is less possibility for monopoly, big producers will focus on their internal problems. After comparing the mature market and the new market, a view point is put forward that a new market demands expansionary measures and a mature market demands measures of contraction.
     Expectations are made in diesel technology, electric car technology, car security technology, environment-friendly and energy-saving technology, new materials, electronics, communication, application of Internet technology, and so on. Then the development trend of future car technology is set forth.
     After the research on the independence, separation, annexation and reorganization of auto parts and accessory makers in Europe, U.S.A. and Japan, it is set forth that steps of independence, separation, annexation and reorganization become faster. By the year of 2015, the number of international auto parts and accessory suppliers will reduce from current 600 to 25 or 30. Labor-intensive industries tend to transfer to countries or areas of low income cost; the pace of auto parts being universalized, modularized, light-weighted, computerized, intellectualized, and environment-friendly tends to be faster; after the analysis and classification of growth potential of auto parts system values, auto parts suppliers with advanced technology and fast development tend to make more profit and expand more quickly. Moreover, it is also discussed current state of quality, cost, and service of auto parts and accessories.
     Integrating with Chinese political environments, economic structure, national policy, industrial development and technologies degree, the thesis sets forth our car development course in 50 years, which is divided into such three phases as independent R&D, jointly-funded exploitation and the coexistence of the both.
     1. The phase of independent R&D (1958-1984) introduces the birth, development and falling of early Chinese cars marked by Redflag and Shanghai.
     2. The phase of jointly-funded exploitation (1984-2001): The main car producers are“Three Big”and“Three Small”, and the production has increased dramatically. In this phase, the overall trend is to introduce foreign technology and set up joint ventures. During this period, core technology is controlled by foreign companies, and Chinese car factories haven’t developed their own techniques and have been in simple developing pattern of“introduction, imitation, re-introduction”.
     3. The phase of coexistence (2001 till now): During this phase, joint ventures have experienced fast development and international car producers have fastened their distribution in China. China's own-brand cars have become the new blood in China’s car industry. The combination of independent and cooperative development is the overall trend of this phase. With the further opening of the market, more diverse products and fierce competition, series of price wars just begin.
     Integrating technical source, forms of cooperation and proportion of independence development in the car industry, the paper analyses the development process of Chinese car from inherent brand and merger-acquisition of inherent brand to independent innovation brand; and it depicts the development course of Chinese car industry; integrating the forming course of independent innovation brand of Chinese car (for example, small Redflag, Chery, Geely, Besturn etc.), the paper depicts the current status and characteristic of Chinese car industry. The paper aims to indicate that the independent innovation brand in possession of nuclear technique is very important for Chinese car industry development.
     As far as the actual situation of Chinese own-brand car production and sales enterprises is concerned, the current output of Chinese car is in the third place in the international community, and but the comprehensive performance, technical content, particularly, the influence of Chinese car are inferior. The following things are pointed out as to promote the international image of Chinese own cars: first, setting up new policies to encourage innovation; second, increasing centralization of car industries and quickening the pace of cooperation, merging and reorganization; third, increasing the investment both in research and development and in human resources; fourth, encouraging the development of auto parts producers and to develop one’s own supply chain; fifth, improving product quality and applying the quality strategy.
     The thesis introduces the innovative development process of Red Flag and Besturn, and summarizes success and failure, which provides a good example for Chinese own-brand car production.
     The thesis also discusses the influences of body design on car’s high speed motion and introduces Aerodynamic design, wind tunnel test, and designing methods of CFD. Main introduction is made in the application of CFD in car body design. CFD works better than wind tunnel test in that it helps develop fast and save resources, can be widely applied and is flexible. Introduction and expectations of aerodynamic numerical simulation are made, and a new trend of development is pointed out.
     The thesis discusses the influences of drive system, electric control system, steering system and brake system on the design of handling stability. It also introduces evaluation development of handling stability and analyzes several ways of evaluation: the evaluation based on open loop theory; the evaluation based on closed loop theory; the evaluation based on fuzzy-neuro theory; and the evaluation based on virtual experimental theory. On the one hand, research has been made in the simulation of handling stability; on the other hand, discussion is made into the modeling and computation of dynamics of flexible multi-body systems, as well as the introduction to virtual experiment system of cars and the related outcome.
     The thesis discusses the body structure of cars and several ways of light weight design and points out things that influence light weight, such as the application of high strength steel, production process of Tailor Welded Blanks (TWB) and Tailor Rolling Blanks (TRB), new materials like aluminum alloy, magnesium alloy and plastics. Analysis and expectations are made into light weight design of Chinese and foreign car producers. Now, great breakthroughs haven’t been made among Chinese car producers, and they are far behind foreign car producers in car performance, automobile exhaust, car security, and the major difference lies in light weight.
引文
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