区域旅游产业效率评价研究
摘要
2008年国家旅游工作会议提出旅游产业的转型升级发展,要求旅游产业转变发展模式,由粗放型向集约型转变。而目前中国旅游产业呈现一种以规模扩张为主的增长形势,那么在规模不断扩大的同时,我们的收益到底如何呢?旅游产业的投入与产出的比例是否在一个合理的范围之内呢?简单的说就是旅游产业的效率处于什么样的发展水平呢?为此,本文对中国31个地区的旅游产业效率进行了深入的研究,以期揭示中国旅游产业效率的时空差异、变化趋势以及影响因素,从而为中国旅游产业效率的提升以及旅游产业的发展提出切实可行的对策建议。本文主要研究内容和结论如下所述：
首先,本文对效率的概念进行了解析及界定,分析了目前效率研究的主要方法,即参数方法与非参数方法。对国内外旅游产业效率的研究内容进行了梳理,结果发现国外的研究要早于国内对于旅游产业效率的研究,其主要侧重于企业层面的研究,主要从酒店、旅行社、机场等相关行业以单体企业的形式进行效率的测算分析,而国内的研究主要侧重区域层面的宏观研究,如以某些省级地区或者某些城市为研究对象,但国内的研究也在逐渐的重视国外的研究视角,注重从酒店、旅行社等旅游企业展开效率的研究,国内对于旅游企业效率的研究大都也是从区域层面出发的,并没有像国外那样以具体的旅游企业为研究对象而展开研究。国内旅游产业效率的研究所涉及的领域与国外相比相对较少。
其次,运用超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数模型分别测算了中国旅游产业的静态效率与动态效率。结果发现：中国旅游产业静态效率总体保持上升的态势,从1995年的0.6267上升到2008年的0。6866,14年间效率均值为0.7442,表明近年来中国旅游产业效率得到一定的提升。但效率值变化高低差异较大。14年间,中国旅游产业效率虽然有所提高,但期间也有所波动,呈现一种“升降升降”的变化趋势。1995-2008年中国旅游产业的动态效率呈年平均1.9%的状态增长,其中技术进步年平均增长0.3%,技术效率年平均增长1.6%。由此可见,旅游产业省际动态效率增长主要源于技术效率提升,技术进步对于效率的增长并不明显。
再次,分别运用σ、β和条件β收敛检验对中国31个地区1995-2008年的旅游产业收敛变化趋势进行了分析。结果发现：1995-2008年,全国的旅游产业效率变化不大,最大差距的σ值为0.8054,最小差距的σ值为0.3492。处于较小的波动变化之中,变化过程较为稳定,但14年间的总体趋势是全国各地区之间的差距在逐渐的变小,呈现出总体σ收敛的特征；1995-2008年之间全国范围内的旅游产业效率的绝对β收敛通过了检验,处于明显的收敛状态,并且以每年4.04%的收敛速度变化,这一结果也表示全国范围内旅游产业效率较低的地区正在逐渐的追赶旅游产业效率较高的地区,逐渐向一种稳态的方向发展。东部、中部、西部三个“俱乐部”内部的绝对β收敛也通过了检验,表明三个地区内部的各个省市之间都有向各自的稳态发展的趋势；通过条件β收敛检验可以发现全国范围内的条件β收敛趋势低于东部与东北地区的收敛趋势。从分地区的角度来看,收敛趋势大小依次为东部、东北、西部、中部。
最后,运用计量经济学面板数据模型识别了中国旅游产业效率变化的影响因素。结果发现：在全国范围内地区经济发展水平对旅游产业效率的影响不显著,而其它四个变量对旅游产业效率都呈显著影响。其中,服务业发展规模呈显著的负向影响,其余的三个变量都呈显著的正向影响,影响系数的大小依次为服务业发展水平、区位条件、固定资产投资。
The national tourism work conference of 2008 put out the transformational upgrade development of tourism and request transformation development mode from extensive form to intensive mode. But now Chinese tourism has an expansion-scale growth situation. With the expansion of scale, how our earnings exactly? Whether the proportion of input and output of tourism is in a reasonable range? That is to say what is the tourism development level? So the paper researches the tourism industry efficiency of 31 regions in China to reveal the space-time differences, changing trends and influencing factors of Chinese tourism efficiency. And then it can put feasible countermeasures to enhance tourism development for Chinese tourism efficiency. The main content and conclusion of study are described below:
First of all, the thesis analyzes and defines the concept of efficiency, and it presents the main research of efficiency method:parameters method and non-parametric method. Besides, it tidies the research content of tourism efficiency in domestic and foreign countries. The result shows that the foreign researches is earlier than the domestic research of tourism efficiency and it mainly focuses on the hotels, travel agencies, airport and other related business that analyzes efficiency in single enterprise form. But the domestic researches mainly focus on the macro researches on the regional levels. For example, there are some researches that put provincial regions or some city as the research object. The domestic researches are also gradually to pay more attention research perspective from tourism, hotels, and travel agencies. The researches about tourism enterprises efficiency of domestic researches are from the regional level, and they are not like foreign researches that put concrete tourism enterprises as research object. The researches of domestic tourism efficiency involved the fields are fewer than foreign researches.
Secondly, the thesis respectively uses super efficiency DEA model and Malmquist index model to calculate the static efficiency and dynamic efficiency of Chinese tourism. The result shows that static efficiency of Chinese tourism keeps rising situation from 0.6267 rising 0.6866 from 1995 to 2008, and the mean value is 0.744, which Chinese tourism efficiency has been improved in recent years, but is has some differences. In 14 years, Chinese tourism efficiency has some improves but has some waves, and it shows a "rising and falling, rising and falling" trend. Dynamic efficiency of Chinese tourism has a rising with the average of 1.9%growth from 1995 to 2008 including annual average growth 0.3%of technical progress, annual average growth 1.6% of technology efficiency. So the inter-province dynamic efficiency growth of tourism is mainly come from technology efficiency progress, and technological progress is not obvious for the efficiency growth.
Once more, the thesis usesσ、βandβtest for convergence to analyze the tourism convergence changing trend of 31 cities in China from 1995 to 2008. The result shows that it has a little change of Chinese tourism efficiency from 19995 to 2008. The biggest gap is 0.8054, and the minimum gap is 0.3492. the change process is stable in the smaller fluctuations, but the overall trend is the gap is changing smaller in 14 years in the national regions which shows the convergence characteristic; tourism efficiency change in the national regions from 1995 to 2008 passes the convergence, which is in a convergence situation, and it has convergence change of 4.04%. It shows the regions of low-efficiency of national tourism efficiency are gradually catching with the regions of high efficiency, which has a steady-state direction. The internal absolutely convergent of the eastern, central and western "club" also passes the test, which shows the internal provinces and cities of three regions has steady development trend; it can find the convergent trend of national regions is lower than the east and northeast areas. From the points of view of regions, the trend is northeast, western, central areas.
Finally, the thesis uses econometrical panel data model to identify impact factors of Chinese tourism efficiency. The result shows that development level of regional economic is not obvious for the influence of tourism efficiency, but other four variables of tourism efficiency have significant influences. Among them, development scale of service industry has a significant negative influence and other three variables have a significant positive effect, and the effect coefficient is from big to small:development level of service industry, location condition and fixed assets investment.
首先,本文对效率的概念进行了解析及界定,分析了目前效率研究的主要方法,即参数方法与非参数方法。对国内外旅游产业效率的研究内容进行了梳理,结果发现国外的研究要早于国内对于旅游产业效率的研究,其主要侧重于企业层面的研究,主要从酒店、旅行社、机场等相关行业以单体企业的形式进行效率的测算分析,而国内的研究主要侧重区域层面的宏观研究,如以某些省级地区或者某些城市为研究对象,但国内的研究也在逐渐的重视国外的研究视角,注重从酒店、旅行社等旅游企业展开效率的研究,国内对于旅游企业效率的研究大都也是从区域层面出发的,并没有像国外那样以具体的旅游企业为研究对象而展开研究。国内旅游产业效率的研究所涉及的领域与国外相比相对较少。
其次,运用超效率DEA模型和Malmquist指数模型分别测算了中国旅游产业的静态效率与动态效率。结果发现：中国旅游产业静态效率总体保持上升的态势,从1995年的0.6267上升到2008年的0。6866,14年间效率均值为0.7442,表明近年来中国旅游产业效率得到一定的提升。但效率值变化高低差异较大。14年间,中国旅游产业效率虽然有所提高,但期间也有所波动,呈现一种“升降升降”的变化趋势。1995-2008年中国旅游产业的动态效率呈年平均1.9%的状态增长,其中技术进步年平均增长0.3%,技术效率年平均增长1.6%。由此可见,旅游产业省际动态效率增长主要源于技术效率提升,技术进步对于效率的增长并不明显。
再次,分别运用σ、β和条件β收敛检验对中国31个地区1995-2008年的旅游产业收敛变化趋势进行了分析。结果发现：1995-2008年,全国的旅游产业效率变化不大,最大差距的σ值为0.8054,最小差距的σ值为0.3492。处于较小的波动变化之中,变化过程较为稳定,但14年间的总体趋势是全国各地区之间的差距在逐渐的变小,呈现出总体σ收敛的特征；1995-2008年之间全国范围内的旅游产业效率的绝对β收敛通过了检验,处于明显的收敛状态,并且以每年4.04%的收敛速度变化,这一结果也表示全国范围内旅游产业效率较低的地区正在逐渐的追赶旅游产业效率较高的地区,逐渐向一种稳态的方向发展。东部、中部、西部三个“俱乐部”内部的绝对β收敛也通过了检验,表明三个地区内部的各个省市之间都有向各自的稳态发展的趋势；通过条件β收敛检验可以发现全国范围内的条件β收敛趋势低于东部与东北地区的收敛趋势。从分地区的角度来看,收敛趋势大小依次为东部、东北、西部、中部。
最后,运用计量经济学面板数据模型识别了中国旅游产业效率变化的影响因素。结果发现：在全国范围内地区经济发展水平对旅游产业效率的影响不显著,而其它四个变量对旅游产业效率都呈显著影响。其中,服务业发展规模呈显著的负向影响,其余的三个变量都呈显著的正向影响,影响系数的大小依次为服务业发展水平、区位条件、固定资产投资。
The national tourism work conference of 2008 put out the transformational upgrade development of tourism and request transformation development mode from extensive form to intensive mode. But now Chinese tourism has an expansion-scale growth situation. With the expansion of scale, how our earnings exactly? Whether the proportion of input and output of tourism is in a reasonable range? That is to say what is the tourism development level? So the paper researches the tourism industry efficiency of 31 regions in China to reveal the space-time differences, changing trends and influencing factors of Chinese tourism efficiency. And then it can put feasible countermeasures to enhance tourism development for Chinese tourism efficiency. The main content and conclusion of study are described below:
First of all, the thesis analyzes and defines the concept of efficiency, and it presents the main research of efficiency method:parameters method and non-parametric method. Besides, it tidies the research content of tourism efficiency in domestic and foreign countries. The result shows that the foreign researches is earlier than the domestic research of tourism efficiency and it mainly focuses on the hotels, travel agencies, airport and other related business that analyzes efficiency in single enterprise form. But the domestic researches mainly focus on the macro researches on the regional levels. For example, there are some researches that put provincial regions or some city as the research object. The domestic researches are also gradually to pay more attention research perspective from tourism, hotels, and travel agencies. The researches about tourism enterprises efficiency of domestic researches are from the regional level, and they are not like foreign researches that put concrete tourism enterprises as research object. The researches of domestic tourism efficiency involved the fields are fewer than foreign researches.
Secondly, the thesis respectively uses super efficiency DEA model and Malmquist index model to calculate the static efficiency and dynamic efficiency of Chinese tourism. The result shows that static efficiency of Chinese tourism keeps rising situation from 0.6267 rising 0.6866 from 1995 to 2008, and the mean value is 0.744, which Chinese tourism efficiency has been improved in recent years, but is has some differences. In 14 years, Chinese tourism efficiency has some improves but has some waves, and it shows a "rising and falling, rising and falling" trend. Dynamic efficiency of Chinese tourism has a rising with the average of 1.9%growth from 1995 to 2008 including annual average growth 0.3%of technical progress, annual average growth 1.6% of technology efficiency. So the inter-province dynamic efficiency growth of tourism is mainly come from technology efficiency progress, and technological progress is not obvious for the efficiency growth.
Once more, the thesis usesσ、βandβtest for convergence to analyze the tourism convergence changing trend of 31 cities in China from 1995 to 2008. The result shows that it has a little change of Chinese tourism efficiency from 19995 to 2008. The biggest gap is 0.8054, and the minimum gap is 0.3492. the change process is stable in the smaller fluctuations, but the overall trend is the gap is changing smaller in 14 years in the national regions which shows the convergence characteristic; tourism efficiency change in the national regions from 1995 to 2008 passes the convergence, which is in a convergence situation, and it has convergence change of 4.04%. It shows the regions of low-efficiency of national tourism efficiency are gradually catching with the regions of high efficiency, which has a steady-state direction. The internal absolutely convergent of the eastern, central and western "club" also passes the test, which shows the internal provinces and cities of three regions has steady development trend; it can find the convergent trend of national regions is lower than the east and northeast areas. From the points of view of regions, the trend is northeast, western, central areas.
Finally, the thesis uses econometrical panel data model to identify impact factors of Chinese tourism efficiency. The result shows that development level of regional economic is not obvious for the influence of tourism efficiency, but other four variables of tourism efficiency have significant influences. Among them, development scale of service industry has a significant negative influence and other three variables have a significant positive effect, and the effect coefficient is from big to small:development level of service industry, location condition and fixed assets investment.
引文
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