基于系统动力学的住宅房地产价格研究
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摘要
作为国家的支柱产业,房地产的稳定发展关乎国计民生。住宅房地产市场的变化关系到广大消费者的切身利益,同时住宅房地产价格也是社会关注的焦点问题。为了实现普通居民“居者有其屋”的构想,持续促进房地产持续健康的发展,选择和分析一系列与住宅房地产价格密切相关的影响因素,具有重要的理论意义和实际应用价值。
在介绍住宅房地产基本理论后,论文首先介绍住宅房地产市场运行规律,确立了其以市场需求与供给基本运作的研究基调。论文接着介绍了住宅房地产价格的形成规律和构成部分,并且从定性角度通过政治因素、经济因素、社会因素、环境因素四部分来分析影响住宅价格的因素,并对之进行了详细说明。
紧接着,论文又介绍了进行研究的另一大理论——系统动力学,先是简单介绍了系统学和系统分析方法,详细说明系统动力学的基本原理及特点,对系统动力学软件iThink进行了说明。并依据房地产市场、价格等方面的理论和系统动力学理论和工具对住宅房地产市场进行建模。
作为论文研究的重点,先是对建模对象进行分析,然后对系统结构进行分析建立三个子系统,再通过分析系统反馈环关联各系统将子系统集成为系统模型,同时还介绍了建立系统模型的主要变量,最后给出了系统建模公式。模型建好后,通过分析总结出四大结论。并对论文的后续研究提出了一点看法。
As the country's pillar industry, the stability of the real estate development has directly influenced the national economy and the people's livelihood. Changes of residential real estate market are related to consumers' vital interests, and housing price becomes the focus of social concern as well. In order to achieve the conception of "Making Home Affordable " for the general population, and promote the sustained and healthy development of real estate, it's theoretically significant and practical valuable to select and analyze a series of factors which closely related to the housing price.
Introduced the basic theory of residential real estate, then firstly the paper introduced the operation rules of residential real estate market, and thus established the study keynote of the basic operation based on the demand-supply relations. Paper described the formation and components of housing price and then analyzed lots of factors in details from a qualitative point of view, including political factors, economic factors, social factors and environmental factors.
Shortly afterward, the paper introduced another major theory for study - System Dynamics, firstly gave a brief introduction of the system studies and system analysis methods, and then had a detailed description of the basic principles and characteristics of system dynamics, as well as the system dynamics software iThink. And the paper based system model based on system dynamics theory and tools and the theories of prices and real estate market.
To be the focus of the study, firstly we analyzed the modeling objects, and then analyzed the structure of the system to establish of three sub-systems. Through the analysis of system feedback loop associated with each system, sub-systems would be integrated as a system model. Meanwhile the paper introduced the main variables of the system model, and finally gave the formula of the system modeling. After the completion of building model, four conclusions were summarized during analyzing. And the paper made an observation for the follow-up research.
在介绍住宅房地产基本理论后,论文首先介绍住宅房地产市场运行规律,确立了其以市场需求与供给基本运作的研究基调。论文接着介绍了住宅房地产价格的形成规律和构成部分,并且从定性角度通过政治因素、经济因素、社会因素、环境因素四部分来分析影响住宅价格的因素,并对之进行了详细说明。
紧接着,论文又介绍了进行研究的另一大理论——系统动力学,先是简单介绍了系统学和系统分析方法,详细说明系统动力学的基本原理及特点,对系统动力学软件iThink进行了说明。并依据房地产市场、价格等方面的理论和系统动力学理论和工具对住宅房地产市场进行建模。
作为论文研究的重点,先是对建模对象进行分析,然后对系统结构进行分析建立三个子系统,再通过分析系统反馈环关联各系统将子系统集成为系统模型,同时还介绍了建立系统模型的主要变量,最后给出了系统建模公式。模型建好后,通过分析总结出四大结论。并对论文的后续研究提出了一点看法。
As the country's pillar industry, the stability of the real estate development has directly influenced the national economy and the people's livelihood. Changes of residential real estate market are related to consumers' vital interests, and housing price becomes the focus of social concern as well. In order to achieve the conception of "Making Home Affordable " for the general population, and promote the sustained and healthy development of real estate, it's theoretically significant and practical valuable to select and analyze a series of factors which closely related to the housing price.
Introduced the basic theory of residential real estate, then firstly the paper introduced the operation rules of residential real estate market, and thus established the study keynote of the basic operation based on the demand-supply relations. Paper described the formation and components of housing price and then analyzed lots of factors in details from a qualitative point of view, including political factors, economic factors, social factors and environmental factors.
Shortly afterward, the paper introduced another major theory for study - System Dynamics, firstly gave a brief introduction of the system studies and system analysis methods, and then had a detailed description of the basic principles and characteristics of system dynamics, as well as the system dynamics software iThink. And the paper based system model based on system dynamics theory and tools and the theories of prices and real estate market.
To be the focus of the study, firstly we analyzed the modeling objects, and then analyzed the structure of the system to establish of three sub-systems. Through the analysis of system feedback loop associated with each system, sub-systems would be integrated as a system model. Meanwhile the paper introduced the main variables of the system model, and finally gave the formula of the system modeling. After the completion of building model, four conclusions were summarized during analyzing. And the paper made an observation for the follow-up research.
引文
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[2]K.McQuinn,G.O'Reilly.Assessing the role of income and interest rates in determining house prices[J].Economic Modeling,2008,25(8):377-390
[3]H.Selim.Determinants of house prices in Turkey:Hedonic regression versus artificial neural network[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(5):2843-2852
[4]P.Richmond.A roof over your head;house price peaks in the UK and Ireland[J].Physical A,2007,375(7):281-287
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[14]李斌.城市商品住宅市场波动及其调控对策研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2006
[15]吴健安等.市场营销学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002:68-73
[16]闫国平.上海房地产价格影响因素研究——以住宅市场为例[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[17]Q.Zheng,W.Yuan.Real estate market prediction based on demand-supply theories[J].Market Modernization,2007,20(7):194-195.
[18]S.G.Yang,L.Y.Wu.Bubbles in China housing markets[J].Consumer Economics,2007,23(3):10-15
[19]B.W.Zhou,H.Y.Guan,J.L.Li,Y.Q.Li.Impacts of foreign investment on real estate in China[J].Commercial Times,2007,15(28):90-91.
[20]戈德伯格.城市土地经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990:157-160
[21]姚玲珍.中国住宅市场营销[M].上海:立信会计出版社.1999:46-48
[22]黄贤金,陈龙乾.房地产企业经营管理[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2000:35-37
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[24]钱叶舒.天津市住宅价格问题研究[D].河北工业大学硕士学位论文,2006
[25]柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004:43-44
[26]崔新民.城市住宅价格动力因素及其实证研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2003
[27]孔煜.城市住宅价格变动的影响因素研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006
[28]商升亮.我国房地产价格变动及影响因素实证研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2008
[29]聂名华:浅析房地产价格变动的影响因素[J].中国房地产,1998,12(10):23-25
[30]王彬.房地产价格影响因素分析[D].北京:北方交通大学,2007
[31]纪晓宏.中国房地产市场价格影响因素的研究分析[D].大连:大连理工大学,2006
[32]卢有杰.建设系统工程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1997:33-34
[33]陶在朴.系统动态学:直击第五项修炼的奥秘[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2005:103-105
[34]商升亮.基于系统动力学的杭州市主城区住宅需求仿真研究[D].杭州:浙江工业大学,2005
[35]Robert A.Taylor.Origin of System Dynamics:Jay W.Forrester and the History of System Dynamics[J].U.S.Department of Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics,2008,23(8):23-25.
[36]Jay W.Forrester.The Beginning of System Dynamics[J].Views about the Development of System Dynamics,2003,23(10):63-64
[37]赵子明.系统动力学在L-苯丙氨酸生物合成过程仿真上的应用[D].南京:南京工业大学制药与生命科学学院,2005
[38]袁翠华.房地产市场系统动力学模型及其应用研究[D].南京:东南大学,2005
[39]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1988:50-51
[40]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学-反馈动态性复杂分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002:23-25
[41]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1985:15-17
[42]吴锡军,袁永根.系统思考和决策实验-新世纪制胜之道[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,2001:45-46
[43]朱湘兰.城市住房需求系统动态学模型研究[D].南京:东南大学,2002
[2]K.McQuinn,G.O'Reilly.Assessing the role of income and interest rates in determining house prices[J].Economic Modeling,2008,25(8):377-390
[3]H.Selim.Determinants of house prices in Turkey:Hedonic regression versus artificial neural network[J].Expert Systems with Applications,2009,36(5):2843-2852
[4]P.Richmond.A roof over your head;house price peaks in the UK and Ireland[J].Physical A,2007,375(7):281-287
[5]W.X.Zhou,D.Somette.Analysis of the real estate market in Las Vegas:Bubble,seasonal patterns,and prediction of the CSW indices[J].Physical A,2008,387(11):243-260
[6]T.F.Sing,I.C.Tsai,M.C.Chen.Price dynamics in public and private housing markets in Singapore[J].Journal of Housing Economics,2006,15(17):305-320
[7]B.G.Hanna.House values,incomes,and industrial pollution[J].Journal of Environmental Economics and Management,2007,54(9):100-112
[8]李龙,张英,张达,尚通亮,王健.浅析影响我国房地产价格上涨的因素[J].哈尔滨商业大学学报(自然科学版),2004,20(8):496-498.
[9]柴强.影响房价的几个理论问题[J].城市开发,2005,15(5):8-9.
[10]高宇波.我国城市住房价格持续上涨的原因分析及对策研究[J].北京房地产,2005,14(2):30-33.
[11]C.Y.Jim,W.Y.Chen.Impacts of urban environmental elements on residential housing prices in Guangzhou(China)[J].Landscape and Urban Planning,2006,6(78):422-434
[12]冯璐.西安市住宅房地产市场系统动力学仿真研究[D].西安:西安建筑科技大学,2008
[13]钱叶舒.天津市住宅价格问题研究[D].天津:河北工业大学,2006
[14]李斌.城市商品住宅市场波动及其调控对策研究[D].武汉:华中科技大学,2006
[15]吴健安等.市场营销学[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002:68-73
[16]闫国平.上海房地产价格影响因素研究——以住宅市场为例[D].上海:同济大学,2006
[17]Q.Zheng,W.Yuan.Real estate market prediction based on demand-supply theories[J].Market Modernization,2007,20(7):194-195.
[18]S.G.Yang,L.Y.Wu.Bubbles in China housing markets[J].Consumer Economics,2007,23(3):10-15
[19]B.W.Zhou,H.Y.Guan,J.L.Li,Y.Q.Li.Impacts of foreign investment on real estate in China[J].Commercial Times,2007,15(28):90-91.
[20]戈德伯格.城市土地经济学[M].北京:中国人民大学出版社,1990:157-160
[21]姚玲珍.中国住宅市场营销[M].上海:立信会计出版社.1999:46-48
[22]黄贤金,陈龙乾.房地产企业经营管理[M].上海:上海财经大学出版社,2000:35-37
[23]乔志敏.房地产经营管理教程[M].上海:立信会计出版社,2001:27-29
[24]钱叶舒.天津市住宅价格问题研究[D].河北工业大学硕士学位论文,2006
[25]柴强.房地产估价理论与方法[M].北京:中国建材工业出版社,2004:43-44
[26]崔新民.城市住宅价格动力因素及其实证研究[D].杭州:浙江大学,2003
[27]孔煜.城市住宅价格变动的影响因素研究[D].重庆:重庆大学,2006
[28]商升亮.我国房地产价格变动及影响因素实证研究[D].长春:吉林大学,2008
[29]聂名华:浅析房地产价格变动的影响因素[J].中国房地产,1998,12(10):23-25
[30]王彬.房地产价格影响因素分析[D].北京:北方交通大学,2007
[31]纪晓宏.中国房地产市场价格影响因素的研究分析[D].大连:大连理工大学,2006
[32]卢有杰.建设系统工程[M].北京:清华大学出版社,1997:33-34
[33]陶在朴.系统动态学:直击第五项修炼的奥秘[M].北京:中国税务出版社,2005:103-105
[34]商升亮.基于系统动力学的杭州市主城区住宅需求仿真研究[D].杭州:浙江工业大学,2005
[35]Robert A.Taylor.Origin of System Dynamics:Jay W.Forrester and the History of System Dynamics[J].U.S.Department of Energy's Introduction to System Dynamics,2008,23(8):23-25.
[36]Jay W.Forrester.The Beginning of System Dynamics[J].Views about the Development of System Dynamics,2003,23(10):63-64
[37]赵子明.系统动力学在L-苯丙氨酸生物合成过程仿真上的应用[D].南京:南京工业大学制药与生命科学学院,2005
[38]袁翠华.房地产市场系统动力学模型及其应用研究[D].南京:东南大学,2005
[39]苏懋康.系统动力学原理及应用[M].上海:上海交通大学出版社,1988:50-51
[40]贾仁安,丁荣华.系统动力学-反馈动态性复杂分析[M].北京:高等教育出版社,2002:23-25
[41]王其藩.系统动力学[M].北京:清华大学出版社.1985:15-17
[42]吴锡军,袁永根.系统思考和决策实验-新世纪制胜之道[M].南京:江苏科学技术出版社,2001:45-46
[43]朱湘兰.城市住房需求系统动态学模型研究[D].南京:东南大学,2002