基于水环境承载力的区域产业发展战略调控分析研究
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摘要
近年来,我国的水环境状况不容乐观。其中,工业发展对水环境质量的影响不容忽视。如何在以经济效益为目标科学确定产业经济发展规划的同时保证水环境质量是本研究的主要内容。本文以区域产业发展与水环境承载力的协调分析为研究对象,本着优化结构、促进产业与环境协调发展的原则,按照评价——预测——调控的路线,构建了区域重点产业发展预测和水环境保护协调统一分析的方法技术框架,旨在寻求区域产业发展与水环境保护相互协调的机制,为合理制定产业发展规划提供决策依据。
研究首先从区域产业发展和水环境承载力状况两方面展开,运用经济学模型和情景分析等方法提出了区域重点产业的识别方法和评价体系,以及其未来发展预测的基本思路;其次,研究引入超载倍数的概念,提出了区域水环境承载状况评价的指标和方法,用以识别因工业重点产业发展带来的潜在的水环境影响与风险;在此两项工作的基础上,论文利用线性规划的方法,以区域产业产值最大化作为线性规划模型的目标函数,以经济发展和水环境承载力为两大约束,构建了区域重点产业发展的调控模型,以考查水环境承载力约束下不同情景的社会经济发展对水环境质量的影响,由此比较不同情景下产业发展的调控方案,从而为提出产业经济与水环境协调发展的对策建议提供了依据。
论文以环渤海沿海13城市为例,对上述研究成果进行了应用。论文以2007年为基准年,筛选出钢铁、石油、化工、造纸、装备制造、纺织和食品加工7个区域重点产业,在对其现状特点进行系统评价的基础上,预测了其在中期2015年和远期2020年的发展状况。并以2020年重点产业产值最大为目标,以水环境不出现超载为约束,讨论了3种不同约束条件下的重点产业发展情景。结合计算结果对2020年的重点产业发展进行了调控。研究结果表明,为保证水环境质量,环渤海沿海区域未来产业发展应重点削减唐山、潍坊的造纸行业规模,削减滨海新区、潍坊、盘锦的化工行业规模,控制盘锦、滨海新区、秦皇岛食品加工业规模,同时遵循“治旧控新”的环境管理原则,并促进跨行政区的社会经济发展和水环境保护的统筹协调。
In recent years, water environment in China is not satisfactory, on which the impact of industrial development can not be ignored. How to scientifically make the industry development planning with the economic benefit and the water quality combined is the main problem to be solved in this thesis. The thesis, focusing on the coordination of the regional industry development and water environment carrying capacity, in accordance with the principle to optimize industry structure and promote the industry developed harmoniously with environment, following the line of evaluation, forecast and regulation, builds a technologic method framework to analysis the coordination between the key industries’further development and the water environment protection. The thesis is to find a coordination mechanism for the regional industrial development and water environmental protection, to provide basis for decision making of the industry rational development planning.
Firstly, the research is separated into two parts, regional industry development and water environment carrying capacity. Based on the economic models and scenario analysis, the recognition method and evaluation system of the current situation and the basic measures of the further development prediction for the key industry are identified. By defining the overload factor, the index and method to evaluate water environment carrying capacity status can be achieved. Combining these two parts, the potential impact of regional key industries’development on water environment can be identified. Then, with the total output value of the key industries maximized to be the objective function and both the industry development and the water environment carrying capacity to be the constraint condition, a linear program model is built to assess the different scenarios of industrial development under the constrain of water environment carrying capacity. Finally, comparing different industry regulation results of different scenarios, the countermeasures and suggestions for the industry development regulation is provided.
The method has been applied to make solutions in 13 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim Area. With year 2007 being the basic year, 7 industries, including metal, petroleum, equipment, food, textile, paper and chemical, are selected as key industries. The current feature of these key industries is systematically evaluated and the development both in the mid-2015 and the long-term 2020 are predicted. Aiming at maximizing the output value of the key industries of the area in 2020 without exceeding water environmental carrying capacity, three scenarios with different constraints have been discussed. Basing on it, the key industries’regulation in 2020 is achieved. The results show that, in order to ensure water quality, the key industries’further development in Bohai Rim Area should cut down paper industry in Tangshan and Weifang and chemical industry in Binhai New Area, Weifang and Panjin, and control food industry in Panjin, Binhai New Area and Qin Huangdao. Meanwhile, the environmental management principles to“rule the old and control the new”should be followed. The coordination of carrying capacity and industry development at provincial level should be promoted as well.
研究首先从区域产业发展和水环境承载力状况两方面展开,运用经济学模型和情景分析等方法提出了区域重点产业的识别方法和评价体系,以及其未来发展预测的基本思路;其次,研究引入超载倍数的概念,提出了区域水环境承载状况评价的指标和方法,用以识别因工业重点产业发展带来的潜在的水环境影响与风险;在此两项工作的基础上,论文利用线性规划的方法,以区域产业产值最大化作为线性规划模型的目标函数,以经济发展和水环境承载力为两大约束,构建了区域重点产业发展的调控模型,以考查水环境承载力约束下不同情景的社会经济发展对水环境质量的影响,由此比较不同情景下产业发展的调控方案,从而为提出产业经济与水环境协调发展的对策建议提供了依据。
论文以环渤海沿海13城市为例,对上述研究成果进行了应用。论文以2007年为基准年,筛选出钢铁、石油、化工、造纸、装备制造、纺织和食品加工7个区域重点产业,在对其现状特点进行系统评价的基础上,预测了其在中期2015年和远期2020年的发展状况。并以2020年重点产业产值最大为目标,以水环境不出现超载为约束,讨论了3种不同约束条件下的重点产业发展情景。结合计算结果对2020年的重点产业发展进行了调控。研究结果表明,为保证水环境质量,环渤海沿海区域未来产业发展应重点削减唐山、潍坊的造纸行业规模,削减滨海新区、潍坊、盘锦的化工行业规模,控制盘锦、滨海新区、秦皇岛食品加工业规模,同时遵循“治旧控新”的环境管理原则,并促进跨行政区的社会经济发展和水环境保护的统筹协调。
In recent years, water environment in China is not satisfactory, on which the impact of industrial development can not be ignored. How to scientifically make the industry development planning with the economic benefit and the water quality combined is the main problem to be solved in this thesis. The thesis, focusing on the coordination of the regional industry development and water environment carrying capacity, in accordance with the principle to optimize industry structure and promote the industry developed harmoniously with environment, following the line of evaluation, forecast and regulation, builds a technologic method framework to analysis the coordination between the key industries’further development and the water environment protection. The thesis is to find a coordination mechanism for the regional industrial development and water environmental protection, to provide basis for decision making of the industry rational development planning.
Firstly, the research is separated into two parts, regional industry development and water environment carrying capacity. Based on the economic models and scenario analysis, the recognition method and evaluation system of the current situation and the basic measures of the further development prediction for the key industry are identified. By defining the overload factor, the index and method to evaluate water environment carrying capacity status can be achieved. Combining these two parts, the potential impact of regional key industries’development on water environment can be identified. Then, with the total output value of the key industries maximized to be the objective function and both the industry development and the water environment carrying capacity to be the constraint condition, a linear program model is built to assess the different scenarios of industrial development under the constrain of water environment carrying capacity. Finally, comparing different industry regulation results of different scenarios, the countermeasures and suggestions for the industry development regulation is provided.
The method has been applied to make solutions in 13 coastal cities in the Bohai Rim Area. With year 2007 being the basic year, 7 industries, including metal, petroleum, equipment, food, textile, paper and chemical, are selected as key industries. The current feature of these key industries is systematically evaluated and the development both in the mid-2015 and the long-term 2020 are predicted. Aiming at maximizing the output value of the key industries of the area in 2020 without exceeding water environmental carrying capacity, three scenarios with different constraints have been discussed. Basing on it, the key industries’regulation in 2020 is achieved. The results show that, in order to ensure water quality, the key industries’further development in Bohai Rim Area should cut down paper industry in Tangshan and Weifang and chemical industry in Binhai New Area, Weifang and Panjin, and control food industry in Panjin, Binhai New Area and Qin Huangdao. Meanwhile, the environmental management principles to“rule the old and control the new”should be followed. The coordination of carrying capacity and industry development at provincial level should be promoted as well.
引文
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[9] Thérivel R, Partidário M R. The Practice of Strategic Environmental Assessment. London: UK: Earthscan Publication Limited, 1996
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