交通基础设施的空间溢出效应及其影响机理研究
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摘要
交通基础设施规模与制造业生产率增长的相关研究，本质上是为了对交通基础设施投资的经济效益进行全面评价，从而为政府制定交通基础设施投资政策提供相关对策建议。在市场经济主导的国家或地区，私人投资是制造业发展的根本力量，私人投资的有效增加才能从根本上促进制造业产业结构升级和相关技术创新；但是，对于中国这样的转型发展中大国而言，政府仍然在区域经济增长中居于非常重要的地位，一方面交通基础设施建设长期以来一直是中央政府调控经济的重要手段之一，另一方面良好的交通基础设施对于促进区域经济增长而言具有非常重要的推动作用，尤其是在中国区域经济发展极不平衡、城乡和地区收入差距不断扩大的现实情况下，如何更加全面地评价和更加深入地理解交通基础设施的生产率增长效应就成为交通经济和经济增长领域一个具有挑战性、紧迫性和战略性的重要研究课题。
一方面，交通基础设施生产率增长效应的既有相关文献绝大多数没有考虑交通基础设施的空间溢出效应，新近虽有少量文献考虑了空间溢出效应但却没有很好地处理交通基础设施与生产率增长之间的内生性问题。针对既有相关文献中对空间溢出效应在理论分析和实证方法上的研究不足，本文第三章构建了同时考虑制造业生产率的时间自相关性、邻省交通基础设施的当期空间溢出效应以及邻省交通基础设施的滞后空间溢出效应等因素的空间动态面板计量模型，并基于本文所测算的省际制造业全要素生产率以及交通基础设施和相关控制变量的省际面板数据，分别在空间邻接权重矩阵、地理距离权重矩阵以及经济距离权重矩阵下进行了空间动态面板计量估计，以期更加全面和准确地测算交通基础设施对我国制造业生产率增长的空间溢出效应。
另一方面，交通基础设施生产率增长效应的既有相关文献没有探究交通基础设施影响生产率增长的空间溢出效应的作用机理。针对既有文献在影响机理上的研究不足，在批判借鉴Lakshmanan（2010）的研究框架并参考交通经济发展史和新经济地理理论等研究成果的基础上，本文构建了交通基础设施对制造业生产率增长空间溢出效应的一个相对更加完善的理论分析框架，亦即交通基础设施可以通过提高出口比较优势、加快区域市场整合以及促进经济活动集聚等影响机理来实现其对制造业生产率增长的空间溢出效应，以期打开交通基础设施影响制造业生产率增长的空间溢出效应这一过程的“内部黑箱”，进而基于中国省际面板数据分别对上述影响机理进行了实证检验，为从宏观路径全面深入地评价交通基础设施的生产率增长效应提供必要的理论支撑。
更进一步，本文在第四章至第六章分别依次研究了交通基础设施对制造业生产率增长空间溢出效应的上述三个影响机理。具体而言，第四章在不完全契约理论和企业异质性贸易模型的基础上构建一个交通基础设施影响制成品出口比较优势的理论分析模型，进而基于中国工业制成品和高技术产品以及交通基础设施的省域面板数据进行了实证检验；第五章在阐释了一个交通基础设施影响国内市场整合、进而影响制造业生产率增长的理论分析框架的基础上，首先基于中国省际商品零售价格指数测度了国内市场整合程度，进而利用交通基础设施的省域面板数据和其他相关数据进行了实证检验；第六章则借鉴新经济地理学的相关模型构建了一个交通基础设施影响制造业企业空间集聚的理论分析模型，进而基于中国省际面板数据进行了实证检验。
The essence of this study on the relationship between transport infrastructure andmanufacturing productivity is to evaluate comprehensively the economic benefit ofthe transport infrastructure investment, and then provide relevant suggestions forgovernment making some policies on the transport infrastructure investment. As thelargest developing and transformating country around the world, the Chinesegovernment still plays an important role in developing the regional economy.Specially speaking, on the one hand, the transportation infrastructure construction haslong been one of the most important means of the central government regulating thenational and regional economy; on the other hand, the good condition of thetransportation infrastructure plays an important role in promoting the regionaleconomic growth. Especially under the condition which the regional economicdevelopment is very unbalanced and the regional income gap is becoming larger andlarger, study on the relationship between transport infrastructure and manufacturingproductivity becomes a challenging and strategic proposition.
Based on the related definition and the literature review, we find that the studies onthe productivity effect of the transport infrastructure have made great progress onboth the theoretical analysis and the empirical study, but there are still two obviousshortages especially after the rise of the new economic geography. Firstly, most of theexisting related liteatures don’t consider the spatial spillover effect of the transportinfrastructure, or some literatures consider the spatial spillover effect but can’tappropriately deal with the endogeneity problem between transport infrastructure andmanufacturing productivity; Secondly, all of the existing related literatures don’tresearch the influencing mechanism which the spatial spillover of the transportinfrastructure affects the manufacturing productivity. For the first shortage, thisdissertation constructs a spatial dynamic panel data econometric model which takesinto account the auto-correlation of the manufacturing productivity, the current spatialspillover effect and the lag spatial spillover effect of the transport infrastructure in theneighboring provinces, in order to evaluate more comprehensively and accurately the spatial spillover effect of the transport infrastructure on productivity.
For the second shortage, drawing on the research framework of Lakshmanan(2010)and with reference to the relevant research results about the economic growth theory,the history of transport economic development and the new economic geographytheory, this dissertation constructs a unified theoretical framework which reflects theinfluencing mechanism that the spatial spillover of the transport infrastructure affectsthe manufacturing productivity, in order to open the “internal black box” which thespatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure on the manufacturing productivity.Specially, the spatial spillover of the transport infrastructure can affect themanufacturing productivity by reducing the logistics costs of the manufacturingcompanies, improving the comparative advantage of the exports of the manufacturingproducts, accelerating the integration of the regional markets and promoting thespatial agglomeration of economic activity. According to the theoretical analysis ofthe above influencing mechanism, this dissertation further tests empirically the abovemechanism based on the Chinese provincial panel data.
一方面，交通基础设施生产率增长效应的既有相关文献绝大多数没有考虑交通基础设施的空间溢出效应，新近虽有少量文献考虑了空间溢出效应但却没有很好地处理交通基础设施与生产率增长之间的内生性问题。针对既有相关文献中对空间溢出效应在理论分析和实证方法上的研究不足，本文第三章构建了同时考虑制造业生产率的时间自相关性、邻省交通基础设施的当期空间溢出效应以及邻省交通基础设施的滞后空间溢出效应等因素的空间动态面板计量模型，并基于本文所测算的省际制造业全要素生产率以及交通基础设施和相关控制变量的省际面板数据，分别在空间邻接权重矩阵、地理距离权重矩阵以及经济距离权重矩阵下进行了空间动态面板计量估计，以期更加全面和准确地测算交通基础设施对我国制造业生产率增长的空间溢出效应。
另一方面，交通基础设施生产率增长效应的既有相关文献没有探究交通基础设施影响生产率增长的空间溢出效应的作用机理。针对既有文献在影响机理上的研究不足，在批判借鉴Lakshmanan（2010）的研究框架并参考交通经济发展史和新经济地理理论等研究成果的基础上，本文构建了交通基础设施对制造业生产率增长空间溢出效应的一个相对更加完善的理论分析框架，亦即交通基础设施可以通过提高出口比较优势、加快区域市场整合以及促进经济活动集聚等影响机理来实现其对制造业生产率增长的空间溢出效应，以期打开交通基础设施影响制造业生产率增长的空间溢出效应这一过程的“内部黑箱”，进而基于中国省际面板数据分别对上述影响机理进行了实证检验，为从宏观路径全面深入地评价交通基础设施的生产率增长效应提供必要的理论支撑。
更进一步，本文在第四章至第六章分别依次研究了交通基础设施对制造业生产率增长空间溢出效应的上述三个影响机理。具体而言，第四章在不完全契约理论和企业异质性贸易模型的基础上构建一个交通基础设施影响制成品出口比较优势的理论分析模型，进而基于中国工业制成品和高技术产品以及交通基础设施的省域面板数据进行了实证检验；第五章在阐释了一个交通基础设施影响国内市场整合、进而影响制造业生产率增长的理论分析框架的基础上，首先基于中国省际商品零售价格指数测度了国内市场整合程度，进而利用交通基础设施的省域面板数据和其他相关数据进行了实证检验；第六章则借鉴新经济地理学的相关模型构建了一个交通基础设施影响制造业企业空间集聚的理论分析模型，进而基于中国省际面板数据进行了实证检验。
The essence of this study on the relationship between transport infrastructure andmanufacturing productivity is to evaluate comprehensively the economic benefit ofthe transport infrastructure investment, and then provide relevant suggestions forgovernment making some policies on the transport infrastructure investment. As thelargest developing and transformating country around the world, the Chinesegovernment still plays an important role in developing the regional economy.Specially speaking, on the one hand, the transportation infrastructure construction haslong been one of the most important means of the central government regulating thenational and regional economy; on the other hand, the good condition of thetransportation infrastructure plays an important role in promoting the regionaleconomic growth. Especially under the condition which the regional economicdevelopment is very unbalanced and the regional income gap is becoming larger andlarger, study on the relationship between transport infrastructure and manufacturingproductivity becomes a challenging and strategic proposition.
Based on the related definition and the literature review, we find that the studies onthe productivity effect of the transport infrastructure have made great progress onboth the theoretical analysis and the empirical study, but there are still two obviousshortages especially after the rise of the new economic geography. Firstly, most of theexisting related liteatures don’t consider the spatial spillover effect of the transportinfrastructure, or some literatures consider the spatial spillover effect but can’tappropriately deal with the endogeneity problem between transport infrastructure andmanufacturing productivity; Secondly, all of the existing related literatures don’tresearch the influencing mechanism which the spatial spillover of the transportinfrastructure affects the manufacturing productivity. For the first shortage, thisdissertation constructs a spatial dynamic panel data econometric model which takesinto account the auto-correlation of the manufacturing productivity, the current spatialspillover effect and the lag spatial spillover effect of the transport infrastructure in theneighboring provinces, in order to evaluate more comprehensively and accurately the spatial spillover effect of the transport infrastructure on productivity.
For the second shortage, drawing on the research framework of Lakshmanan(2010)and with reference to the relevant research results about the economic growth theory,the history of transport economic development and the new economic geographytheory, this dissertation constructs a unified theoretical framework which reflects theinfluencing mechanism that the spatial spillover of the transport infrastructure affectsthe manufacturing productivity, in order to open the “internal black box” which thespatial spillover effect of transport infrastructure on the manufacturing productivity.Specially, the spatial spillover of the transport infrastructure can affect themanufacturing productivity by reducing the logistics costs of the manufacturingcompanies, improving the comparative advantage of the exports of the manufacturingproducts, accelerating the integration of the regional markets and promoting thespatial agglomeration of economic activity. According to the theoretical analysis ofthe above influencing mechanism, this dissertation further tests empirically the abovemechanism based on the Chinese provincial panel data.
引文
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