空气污染健康效应的经济学分析
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摘要
我国在20世纪80年代开始经济迅速发展,随着城市化和工业化的快速进行,与此同时,人口剧增、资源过度消耗、环境污染、生态破坏等问题日益彰显,严重阻碍着经济发展和人民生活质量的进一步提高,威胁着人类的未来生存。在我国的环境污染问题日益严重,由此造成的健康损害引起人们的广泛关注,特别是空气污染及其带来的健康损害在整个环境污染中尤其严重。近年来,流行病学研究的结果证实了空气污染物与人体健康密切相关。国外相关研究结果也揭示了空气污染带来的健康损失在环境污染造成的总损失中占的比例很大。国家对空气污染也给予了高度关注,今年我国空气质量标准的重新修订,特别把PM2.5纳入监测内容,并已经有多个试点城市开始运作,加强政策实施的力度。但长期以来“高投入、高消耗、高污染”经济增长模式也对环境构成了巨大压力。尽管政府制定并不断完善了环境法律法规体系,使环境保护取得了一定的进展,但环境形势严峻的状况仍然没有改变,表现为主要污染物排放量超过环境承载能力,许多城市空气污染严重,酸雨污染加重,等诸多大气环境问题,且发达国家上百年工业化过程中分阶段出现的环境问题,在我国近20多年来集中出现,呈现结构型、复合型、压缩型的特点。因此,对空气污染造成的人体健康损害进行经济学评估,有助于了解我国空气污染的危害程度,为进行经济开发和环境保护决策提供科学依据。
本文运用卫生经济学、环境经济学和计量经济学等相关学科的理论知识,采用微观和宏观,定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法探讨了空气污染带来的健康效应。全文主要包含以下几个方面的内容：
第一,充分回顾国内外有关空气污染与健康终端危害暴露反应关系研究、城市空气污染健康危险度评价、健康风险的价值评估等方面的相关文献,分析国内外研究方法、研究基础条件以及研究热点；
第二,选择典型城市(本文是对成都市的分析),对大气监测数据,死亡、住院等健康数据,温度、湿度等气象数据进行收集与整理,选择主要空气污染物的健康效应终端；
第三,开展典型地区空气污染物与健康效应之间暴露反应关系的研究,控制混杂因素的影响,深入研究空气污染与居民呼吸系统疾病每日住院人次等健康效应的暴露反应关系,分析空气污染健康暴露反应关系的因果关系。
第四,运用最新的宏观统计数据,综合考虑了经济、环境和健康的相互影响,同时选取了能够代表不同年龄层的健康指标：死亡率、围产儿死亡率、出生体重小于2500克的婴儿比重、儿科门诊人次以及肺结核发病率来考察主要空气污染成分排放量和数量的变化对不同健康指标的影响。
通过对数据的实证分析,本文主要得到以下结论：
第一,根据我国的空气质量标准成都市2009-2010年空气质量良好,但是在较低的污染水平下,空气污染仍然对健康造成了显著的负向影响。空气污染指数每增加十个单位,将导致后一天因呼吸道系统疾病住院的人数增加0.6人左右。同时分别控制了气温、气压和降水量三个气象因素仍然得到这一显著结果。
第二,空气污染的健康效应存在星期效应和季节效应。这与实际生活中的医院工作制度和空气污染物对健康的影响路径有关。在医院专家周末不坐诊的这种制度安排下,患者会集中在周一和周五去就诊。当季节交替变换时,空气质量伴随着气象因素的同时作用,会加剧呼吸道系统疾病的患病率。
第三,利用成都市的住院数据,分析了空气污染水平的变化对医疗花费的影响。结果显示,空气污染指数每增加十个单位,每人每天的医疗总花费平均会增加115.5元,自费药品费用平均每天增加3.34元,诊疗费用平均增加10.5元。
第四,根据省级面板数据的实证分析,工业空气污染物排放量对死亡率、围产儿死亡率、出生体重低于2500克的婴儿比重、儿科门诊人次、肺结核发病率都存在显著地健康效应。国外研究表明,采用婴儿的健康指标更能反映空气污染与健康之间的因果关系,而本文利用了围产儿死亡率和出生体重低于2500克的婴儿比重两个指标证实了空气污染的健康效应。
第五,根据收入方程的回归结果,物质资本投入、劳动力数量和教育对人均收入有显著正影响；人口对人均收入具有负影响；工业污染物排放量对人均收入有显著的负影响。21世纪初期至今我国的人口健康状况对经济增长有显著负影响(出生体重低于2500克婴儿的比重对经济增长有显著正影响,作用效果和其他公共健康指标相同；儿科门诊人次为健康指标时作用不显著)；教育状况对经济增长有显著正影响；工业污染排放物对经济增长有显著负影响,其作用在各种影响经济增长的因素中是最为强健的。
第六,总体而言,人均工业气体污染物排放量随人均收入水平上升而减少。第三产业比重的估计值有时不显著,但只要显著,其符号均为负,与预期相符,说明发展第三产业有利于改善环境质量。
全文共有五章内容,具体安排如下：
第一章是绪论。简要地阐述了空气污染健康效应的研究背景,并对文章的研究内容和研究方法作了简单的介绍,给出了本论文的总体研究思路,以图表的形式直观地体现了论文的整体结构。
第二章是文献综述。首先介绍了空气污染相关背景知识,对空气污染如何影响健康以及空气污染衡量指标相关内容简单的总结。然后从不同的健康指标的衡量角度死亡率、门急诊就诊率和患病率等等方面的健康效应分析研究作了系统的梳理。
第三章是对成都市的健康效应分析的实证研究。根据获得的微观数据该部分同时整合了2009-2010年环境保护局公布的空气污染指数(API)和世界监测网站公布的每天的气象数据,运用时间序列分析方法分析了空气污染指数对呼吸道系统疾病患者每天的住院人次的影响,研究结果发现,空气污染指数对日住院人次有显著的正向影响,即空气污染水平越高,因呼吸道系统疾病住院的人数越多。同时对成都市城乡居民医疗保险参保者在2009-2010年因呼吸道系统疾病而住院的参保者的一些微观数据进行统计分析,分析中发现成都市城乡居民基本医疗保险参保的统筹层次越高,患者所占的比例越大,从性别比例来看,女性患者较多。大多数参保者在这两年内因呼吸道系统疾病而住院一次,不过也有的参保者在两年时间内住院超过3次只是比重不大。
第四章是利用全国30个省市2003-2010八年的面板数据,选择了死亡率、围产儿死亡率、出生体重小于2500克的婴儿比重、儿科门诊人次以及肺结核发病率五个不同的健康指标、三种主要工业空气污染物排放量和汽车数量四种不同的空气环境指标,运用固定效应模型和联立方程模型来研究空气污染的健康效应,结果进一步证实了空气污染的健康效应。
第五章是全文的总结。在总结全文结论的基础上同时讨论了文章的不足和进一步研究的方向。
本文可能的创新之处在于：一是首次对成都市的空气污染对健康的影响的分析,而且是只针对参加了城乡居民医疗保险的居民因为患有呼吸道系统疾病住院的数据分析。拥有医疗保险的居民在患病后因为有保险的报销补助可能会积极去医院诊治,这相对保证了整个城市的空气污染的健康效应的分析样本的完整。而且因为都是城乡居民医疗保险的参保者,可以衡量同一保险制度下居民的发病率和是否选择住院与保险统筹层次的关系。二是首次用围产儿死亡率、出生体重低于2500克的婴儿比重来衡量公共健康指标,用来分析空气污染的健康效应。在以往的文献中,主要应用死亡率分析空气污染对健康的影响,但是由于成年人的健康状况还会受到自身健康禀赋、积累的健康习惯等因素的影响,分析结果可能是有偏的,容易高估空气污染对健康的影响。但是,本文采用的两个健康指标是新生儿的健康状况,更多的只会受到母亲妊娠期间和刚刚出生期间内的空气污染的暴露水平的影响,能够更有效的评估空气污染对健康的影响。本文的不足在于：受到数据的限制,不能更多的控制微观变量对健康的影响,如无法得到母亲的健康生活行为,还是不能更有效的评估空气污染的健康效应。
China has experienced rapid economic development in the1980s, with rapid urbanization and industrialization, there are many things impediment to economic development and people's further improvement of life, threatening the future of mankind survival, such as population growth, excessive consumption of resources and highlight the growing problem of environmental pollution, ecological damage. In China, the topic that how great damage on health has been caused by environmental pollution has received widespread concern, especially air pollution and its health burden caused particularly serious environmental pollution. In recent years, the results of epidemiological studies have confirmed that air pollutants and human health are closely related. Foreign research results also revealed the health costs of air pollution accounts for a large proportion of the total loss of the environmental pollution. State air pollution has also given great attention to the revised air quality standards in China, particularly PM2.5included in the monitoring of the content, and we have a number of pilot cities began to work to strengthen the implementation of the policy efforts. China's economic development, the protection and improvement of public health has become one of the major development objectives of national policy. But for a long time "high input, high consumption, high pollution" mode of economic growth constitute a huge pressure on the environment. Although the government developed and constantly improved the system of environmental laws and regulations, and environmental protection has made some progress, severe environmental situation remains unchanged:excessive main pollutant emissions, serious urban air pollution increased, acid rain increased pollution, and many other atmospheric environmental issues and environmental problems. These problems, that gradually showed up during the course of industrilation in developed countires for a century, occur intensively in China in recent20years, showing the structure, compound, compression-type characteristics. Therefore, the economic evaluation of air pollution damage to human health helps to understand the hazard levels of air pollution in China, provide the scientific guidance for economic development and environmental protection decisions.
In this paper, the theoretical knowledge of related disciplines such as health economics, environmental economics and econometrics, the use of micro and macro, quantitative and qualitative analysis of a combination of methods to investigate the health effects of air pollution. The full text contains the following aspects:First, literature review on air pollution and health terminals hazard exposure response relationship, the value of urban air pollution health risk assessment, health risk assessment related literature, analysis of domestic and foreign research methods, basic conditions, as well as research focus; Second, the choice of the typical city (This article is the analysis of Chengdu), air monitoring data, death, hospitalization and other health data, temperature, humidity and other meteorological data collection and sorting, select the major air pollutants, health effects of the terminal; Third, to carry out the typical regional air pollutants and health effects of exposure-response relationship between research and control of confounding factors, in-depth study of air pollution and daily deaths of the residents of the respiratory system and cardiovascular diseases outpatient, and emergency short-term acute health the effects of exposure-response relationship analysis of air pollution health exposure-response relationship of cause and effect relationship; Fourth, the use of the latest macroeconomic statistics, considering the interaction of economic, environmental and health, also selected health indicators to represent different ages groups:mortality, perinatal mortality, the proportion of birth weight infants less than2500grams, pediatric outpatient visits and the incidence of tuberculosis to examine the impact of the emissions of major air pollution components and changes in the number of different health indicators.
After the empirical analysis of the data, we get the following conclusions:
First, according to the air quality standards in China, Chengdu,2009-2010air quality is good, but under lower pollution levels, air pollution still pose a health significant negative impact on health. The increase of Air Pollution Index (API) for each10units will lead the day after hospitalization due to respiratory system diseases, increase by the number of about0.6people in the following day. Controling temperature, pressure and precipitation of three meteorological factors, we still get significant results.
Second, the health effects of air pollution have the week effects and seasonal effects. The specialists do not work in weekend, the patients will be focused on the Monday and Friday for treatment. The air quality with the meteorological factors will exacerbate the morbidity rates of respiratory system diseases, when the seasons are changing.
Third, we analyze the impact of changes in air pollution levels on health care costs using the inpatients data in Chengdu. The results show that the increment of air pollution index for each10units leads to an115.5yuan average for the total medical cost per person per day,and3.34yuan for expenses on self-paid medicines,10.5yuan for treatment cost.
Fourthly, according to the empirical analysis of the provincial-level panel data, industrial emissions of air pollutants on mortality, perinatal mortality, birth weight infants less than2500grams proportion of pediatric outpatient visits, the incidence of tuberculosis are significant to prove the health effects. Overseas studies have shown that the use of infant health indicators to better reflect a causal relationship between air pollution and health, while the use of perinatal mortality and birth weight infants less than2500grams proportion of the two indicators to confirm the health effects of air pollution.
Fifth, according to the regression results of the income equation, the physical capital investment, the amount of labor and education, per capita income has a significant positive effect; population has a negative impact on per capita income; industrial pollutant emissions per capita income have a significant negative impact. The early21st century economic growth since China's population health status of significant negative effects (proportion of birth weight less than2500grams has significant positive effect to economic growth, but the effect of it and other public health indicators do not significant); the situation of education have significant positive impact on economic growth; industrial pollution emissions have a significant negative impact on economic growth, and its role in a variety of factors that affect economic growth is the most robust. Which show different aspects of industrial pollutant emissions show a different pattern of change in the process of economic growth.
Sixth, overall, the per capita industrial gas pollutant emissions increased with the level of per capita income is reduced. The estimated value of the tertiary industry is sometimes not significant, but significant, its symbols are negative, in line with expectations, indicating the development of tertiary industry will help to improve the quality of the environment.
The full text is structured into five chapters, as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It describes the background of the health effects of air pollution, and article content and research methods briefly, given the overall research ideas in this paper, the form of a chart to visually reflects the overall structure of the paper.
The second chapter is a literature review. First we introduces the background knowledge of air pollution, how air pollution affects the health and air pollution measure the contents of a brief summary. Then made a systematic review of the health effects of different health indicators to measure the angle mortality, outpatient and emergency department attendance rates and prevalence, etc..
The third chapter is the analysis of empirical research of the health effects of Chengdu. Integration at the same time according to the micro data2009-2010, Air Pollution Index (API) released by the Environmental Protection Agency announced and the world monitoring site the daily meteorological data, using time series analysis methods to analyze the air pollution index of the respiratory system disease every day the impact of the inpatients, the study found that air pollution index inpatients towards Japan have a significant positive impact, that is, the higher the level of air pollution, the more the number of hospitalization due to respiratory system diseases. Chengdu urban and rural residents medical insurance in2009-2010, insured hospital due to respiratory system diseases microscopic statistical analysis, the analysis found that the higher the level of co-ordination of Chengdu urban and rural residents basic medical insurance patients the proportion of the greater proportion from the gender point of view, more female patients. The majority of insured persons hospitalized due to respiratory system diseases in two years time, but some insured persons within two years hospitalized for more than three times even not a big number.
The forth chapter is the analysis of empirical research using2003-2010eight years of panel data of30provinces and cities across the country, selected mortality, perinatal mortality, birth weight infants less than2500g, the proportion of pediatric outpatient visits, as well as the incidence of tuberculosis in five different health indicators, the three major industrial air pollutant emissions and the number of cars four different types of air environmental indicators, the use of fixed effect models and simultaneous equations model to study the health effects of air pollution, and further confirmed by the health effects of air pollution.
The fifth chapter is a summary of the full text that discussed the conclusion conclusions based on insufficient and further research direction of the article.
Innovations in this article are as follows:First, the analysis of the health effects of air pollution in Chengdu for the first time, but only for the residents participating in medical insurance for urban and rural residents suffering from respiratory system diseases, hospitalization data analysis. Residents with health insurance may actively go to the hospital for treatment after the illness because insurance reimbursement grants, it is relatively to ensure the integrity of the analysis of samples of the health effects of air pollution throughout the city. Insured persons are urban and rural residents medical insurance, we can measure the incidence of residents under the same insurance system and whether to choose the level of hospital. The second is the first time with perinatal mortality, proportion of birth weight infants less than2500grams to measure public health indicators, used to analyze the health effects of air pollution. In the previous literature, the main applications mortality analysis of air pollution on health, the health status of adults but also by the endowments of their own health, health habits, such as the accumulation of factors, the results of the analysis may be biased, easy to overestimate the impact of air pollution on health. However, the two health indicators used in this paper is the health status of the newborn, and more only by the mother during pregnancy and just been born during the period of air pollution exposure levels to more effectively assess the impact of air pollution on health. The deficiencies of this article is:subject to data limitations, do not control more micro variables affecting the health, such as the mother's behavior, or other effective assessment of the health effects of air pollution.
本文运用卫生经济学、环境经济学和计量经济学等相关学科的理论知识,采用微观和宏观,定量分析和定性分析相结合的方法探讨了空气污染带来的健康效应。全文主要包含以下几个方面的内容：
第一,充分回顾国内外有关空气污染与健康终端危害暴露反应关系研究、城市空气污染健康危险度评价、健康风险的价值评估等方面的相关文献,分析国内外研究方法、研究基础条件以及研究热点；
第二,选择典型城市(本文是对成都市的分析),对大气监测数据,死亡、住院等健康数据,温度、湿度等气象数据进行收集与整理,选择主要空气污染物的健康效应终端；
第三,开展典型地区空气污染物与健康效应之间暴露反应关系的研究,控制混杂因素的影响,深入研究空气污染与居民呼吸系统疾病每日住院人次等健康效应的暴露反应关系,分析空气污染健康暴露反应关系的因果关系。
第四,运用最新的宏观统计数据,综合考虑了经济、环境和健康的相互影响,同时选取了能够代表不同年龄层的健康指标：死亡率、围产儿死亡率、出生体重小于2500克的婴儿比重、儿科门诊人次以及肺结核发病率来考察主要空气污染成分排放量和数量的变化对不同健康指标的影响。
通过对数据的实证分析,本文主要得到以下结论：
第一,根据我国的空气质量标准成都市2009-2010年空气质量良好,但是在较低的污染水平下,空气污染仍然对健康造成了显著的负向影响。空气污染指数每增加十个单位,将导致后一天因呼吸道系统疾病住院的人数增加0.6人左右。同时分别控制了气温、气压和降水量三个气象因素仍然得到这一显著结果。
第二,空气污染的健康效应存在星期效应和季节效应。这与实际生活中的医院工作制度和空气污染物对健康的影响路径有关。在医院专家周末不坐诊的这种制度安排下,患者会集中在周一和周五去就诊。当季节交替变换时,空气质量伴随着气象因素的同时作用,会加剧呼吸道系统疾病的患病率。
第三,利用成都市的住院数据,分析了空气污染水平的变化对医疗花费的影响。结果显示,空气污染指数每增加十个单位,每人每天的医疗总花费平均会增加115.5元,自费药品费用平均每天增加3.34元,诊疗费用平均增加10.5元。
第四,根据省级面板数据的实证分析,工业空气污染物排放量对死亡率、围产儿死亡率、出生体重低于2500克的婴儿比重、儿科门诊人次、肺结核发病率都存在显著地健康效应。国外研究表明,采用婴儿的健康指标更能反映空气污染与健康之间的因果关系,而本文利用了围产儿死亡率和出生体重低于2500克的婴儿比重两个指标证实了空气污染的健康效应。
第五,根据收入方程的回归结果,物质资本投入、劳动力数量和教育对人均收入有显著正影响；人口对人均收入具有负影响；工业污染物排放量对人均收入有显著的负影响。21世纪初期至今我国的人口健康状况对经济增长有显著负影响(出生体重低于2500克婴儿的比重对经济增长有显著正影响,作用效果和其他公共健康指标相同；儿科门诊人次为健康指标时作用不显著)；教育状况对经济增长有显著正影响；工业污染排放物对经济增长有显著负影响,其作用在各种影响经济增长的因素中是最为强健的。
第六,总体而言,人均工业气体污染物排放量随人均收入水平上升而减少。第三产业比重的估计值有时不显著,但只要显著,其符号均为负,与预期相符,说明发展第三产业有利于改善环境质量。
全文共有五章内容,具体安排如下：
第一章是绪论。简要地阐述了空气污染健康效应的研究背景,并对文章的研究内容和研究方法作了简单的介绍,给出了本论文的总体研究思路,以图表的形式直观地体现了论文的整体结构。
第二章是文献综述。首先介绍了空气污染相关背景知识,对空气污染如何影响健康以及空气污染衡量指标相关内容简单的总结。然后从不同的健康指标的衡量角度死亡率、门急诊就诊率和患病率等等方面的健康效应分析研究作了系统的梳理。
第三章是对成都市的健康效应分析的实证研究。根据获得的微观数据该部分同时整合了2009-2010年环境保护局公布的空气污染指数(API)和世界监测网站公布的每天的气象数据,运用时间序列分析方法分析了空气污染指数对呼吸道系统疾病患者每天的住院人次的影响,研究结果发现,空气污染指数对日住院人次有显著的正向影响,即空气污染水平越高,因呼吸道系统疾病住院的人数越多。同时对成都市城乡居民医疗保险参保者在2009-2010年因呼吸道系统疾病而住院的参保者的一些微观数据进行统计分析,分析中发现成都市城乡居民基本医疗保险参保的统筹层次越高,患者所占的比例越大,从性别比例来看,女性患者较多。大多数参保者在这两年内因呼吸道系统疾病而住院一次,不过也有的参保者在两年时间内住院超过3次只是比重不大。
第四章是利用全国30个省市2003-2010八年的面板数据,选择了死亡率、围产儿死亡率、出生体重小于2500克的婴儿比重、儿科门诊人次以及肺结核发病率五个不同的健康指标、三种主要工业空气污染物排放量和汽车数量四种不同的空气环境指标,运用固定效应模型和联立方程模型来研究空气污染的健康效应,结果进一步证实了空气污染的健康效应。
第五章是全文的总结。在总结全文结论的基础上同时讨论了文章的不足和进一步研究的方向。
本文可能的创新之处在于：一是首次对成都市的空气污染对健康的影响的分析,而且是只针对参加了城乡居民医疗保险的居民因为患有呼吸道系统疾病住院的数据分析。拥有医疗保险的居民在患病后因为有保险的报销补助可能会积极去医院诊治,这相对保证了整个城市的空气污染的健康效应的分析样本的完整。而且因为都是城乡居民医疗保险的参保者,可以衡量同一保险制度下居民的发病率和是否选择住院与保险统筹层次的关系。二是首次用围产儿死亡率、出生体重低于2500克的婴儿比重来衡量公共健康指标,用来分析空气污染的健康效应。在以往的文献中,主要应用死亡率分析空气污染对健康的影响,但是由于成年人的健康状况还会受到自身健康禀赋、积累的健康习惯等因素的影响,分析结果可能是有偏的,容易高估空气污染对健康的影响。但是,本文采用的两个健康指标是新生儿的健康状况,更多的只会受到母亲妊娠期间和刚刚出生期间内的空气污染的暴露水平的影响,能够更有效的评估空气污染对健康的影响。本文的不足在于：受到数据的限制,不能更多的控制微观变量对健康的影响,如无法得到母亲的健康生活行为,还是不能更有效的评估空气污染的健康效应。
China has experienced rapid economic development in the1980s, with rapid urbanization and industrialization, there are many things impediment to economic development and people's further improvement of life, threatening the future of mankind survival, such as population growth, excessive consumption of resources and highlight the growing problem of environmental pollution, ecological damage. In China, the topic that how great damage on health has been caused by environmental pollution has received widespread concern, especially air pollution and its health burden caused particularly serious environmental pollution. In recent years, the results of epidemiological studies have confirmed that air pollutants and human health are closely related. Foreign research results also revealed the health costs of air pollution accounts for a large proportion of the total loss of the environmental pollution. State air pollution has also given great attention to the revised air quality standards in China, particularly PM2.5included in the monitoring of the content, and we have a number of pilot cities began to work to strengthen the implementation of the policy efforts. China's economic development, the protection and improvement of public health has become one of the major development objectives of national policy. But for a long time "high input, high consumption, high pollution" mode of economic growth constitute a huge pressure on the environment. Although the government developed and constantly improved the system of environmental laws and regulations, and environmental protection has made some progress, severe environmental situation remains unchanged:excessive main pollutant emissions, serious urban air pollution increased, acid rain increased pollution, and many other atmospheric environmental issues and environmental problems. These problems, that gradually showed up during the course of industrilation in developed countires for a century, occur intensively in China in recent20years, showing the structure, compound, compression-type characteristics. Therefore, the economic evaluation of air pollution damage to human health helps to understand the hazard levels of air pollution in China, provide the scientific guidance for economic development and environmental protection decisions.
In this paper, the theoretical knowledge of related disciplines such as health economics, environmental economics and econometrics, the use of micro and macro, quantitative and qualitative analysis of a combination of methods to investigate the health effects of air pollution. The full text contains the following aspects:First, literature review on air pollution and health terminals hazard exposure response relationship, the value of urban air pollution health risk assessment, health risk assessment related literature, analysis of domestic and foreign research methods, basic conditions, as well as research focus; Second, the choice of the typical city (This article is the analysis of Chengdu), air monitoring data, death, hospitalization and other health data, temperature, humidity and other meteorological data collection and sorting, select the major air pollutants, health effects of the terminal; Third, to carry out the typical regional air pollutants and health effects of exposure-response relationship between research and control of confounding factors, in-depth study of air pollution and daily deaths of the residents of the respiratory system and cardiovascular diseases outpatient, and emergency short-term acute health the effects of exposure-response relationship analysis of air pollution health exposure-response relationship of cause and effect relationship; Fourth, the use of the latest macroeconomic statistics, considering the interaction of economic, environmental and health, also selected health indicators to represent different ages groups:mortality, perinatal mortality, the proportion of birth weight infants less than2500grams, pediatric outpatient visits and the incidence of tuberculosis to examine the impact of the emissions of major air pollution components and changes in the number of different health indicators.
After the empirical analysis of the data, we get the following conclusions:
First, according to the air quality standards in China, Chengdu,2009-2010air quality is good, but under lower pollution levels, air pollution still pose a health significant negative impact on health. The increase of Air Pollution Index (API) for each10units will lead the day after hospitalization due to respiratory system diseases, increase by the number of about0.6people in the following day. Controling temperature, pressure and precipitation of three meteorological factors, we still get significant results.
Second, the health effects of air pollution have the week effects and seasonal effects. The specialists do not work in weekend, the patients will be focused on the Monday and Friday for treatment. The air quality with the meteorological factors will exacerbate the morbidity rates of respiratory system diseases, when the seasons are changing.
Third, we analyze the impact of changes in air pollution levels on health care costs using the inpatients data in Chengdu. The results show that the increment of air pollution index for each10units leads to an115.5yuan average for the total medical cost per person per day,and3.34yuan for expenses on self-paid medicines,10.5yuan for treatment cost.
Fourthly, according to the empirical analysis of the provincial-level panel data, industrial emissions of air pollutants on mortality, perinatal mortality, birth weight infants less than2500grams proportion of pediatric outpatient visits, the incidence of tuberculosis are significant to prove the health effects. Overseas studies have shown that the use of infant health indicators to better reflect a causal relationship between air pollution and health, while the use of perinatal mortality and birth weight infants less than2500grams proportion of the two indicators to confirm the health effects of air pollution.
Fifth, according to the regression results of the income equation, the physical capital investment, the amount of labor and education, per capita income has a significant positive effect; population has a negative impact on per capita income; industrial pollutant emissions per capita income have a significant negative impact. The early21st century economic growth since China's population health status of significant negative effects (proportion of birth weight less than2500grams has significant positive effect to economic growth, but the effect of it and other public health indicators do not significant); the situation of education have significant positive impact on economic growth; industrial pollution emissions have a significant negative impact on economic growth, and its role in a variety of factors that affect economic growth is the most robust. Which show different aspects of industrial pollutant emissions show a different pattern of change in the process of economic growth.
Sixth, overall, the per capita industrial gas pollutant emissions increased with the level of per capita income is reduced. The estimated value of the tertiary industry is sometimes not significant, but significant, its symbols are negative, in line with expectations, indicating the development of tertiary industry will help to improve the quality of the environment.
The full text is structured into five chapters, as follows:
The first chapter is an introduction. It describes the background of the health effects of air pollution, and article content and research methods briefly, given the overall research ideas in this paper, the form of a chart to visually reflects the overall structure of the paper.
The second chapter is a literature review. First we introduces the background knowledge of air pollution, how air pollution affects the health and air pollution measure the contents of a brief summary. Then made a systematic review of the health effects of different health indicators to measure the angle mortality, outpatient and emergency department attendance rates and prevalence, etc..
The third chapter is the analysis of empirical research of the health effects of Chengdu. Integration at the same time according to the micro data2009-2010, Air Pollution Index (API) released by the Environmental Protection Agency announced and the world monitoring site the daily meteorological data, using time series analysis methods to analyze the air pollution index of the respiratory system disease every day the impact of the inpatients, the study found that air pollution index inpatients towards Japan have a significant positive impact, that is, the higher the level of air pollution, the more the number of hospitalization due to respiratory system diseases. Chengdu urban and rural residents medical insurance in2009-2010, insured hospital due to respiratory system diseases microscopic statistical analysis, the analysis found that the higher the level of co-ordination of Chengdu urban and rural residents basic medical insurance patients the proportion of the greater proportion from the gender point of view, more female patients. The majority of insured persons hospitalized due to respiratory system diseases in two years time, but some insured persons within two years hospitalized for more than three times even not a big number.
The forth chapter is the analysis of empirical research using2003-2010eight years of panel data of30provinces and cities across the country, selected mortality, perinatal mortality, birth weight infants less than2500g, the proportion of pediatric outpatient visits, as well as the incidence of tuberculosis in five different health indicators, the three major industrial air pollutant emissions and the number of cars four different types of air environmental indicators, the use of fixed effect models and simultaneous equations model to study the health effects of air pollution, and further confirmed by the health effects of air pollution.
The fifth chapter is a summary of the full text that discussed the conclusion conclusions based on insufficient and further research direction of the article.
Innovations in this article are as follows:First, the analysis of the health effects of air pollution in Chengdu for the first time, but only for the residents participating in medical insurance for urban and rural residents suffering from respiratory system diseases, hospitalization data analysis. Residents with health insurance may actively go to the hospital for treatment after the illness because insurance reimbursement grants, it is relatively to ensure the integrity of the analysis of samples of the health effects of air pollution throughout the city. Insured persons are urban and rural residents medical insurance, we can measure the incidence of residents under the same insurance system and whether to choose the level of hospital. The second is the first time with perinatal mortality, proportion of birth weight infants less than2500grams to measure public health indicators, used to analyze the health effects of air pollution. In the previous literature, the main applications mortality analysis of air pollution on health, the health status of adults but also by the endowments of their own health, health habits, such as the accumulation of factors, the results of the analysis may be biased, easy to overestimate the impact of air pollution on health. However, the two health indicators used in this paper is the health status of the newborn, and more only by the mother during pregnancy and just been born during the period of air pollution exposure levels to more effectively assess the impact of air pollution on health. The deficiencies of this article is:subject to data limitations, do not control more micro variables affecting the health, such as the mother's behavior, or other effective assessment of the health effects of air pollution.
引文
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