腐败的预警预控体系研究
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摘要
本文基于管理学、心理学、社会学及经济学等理论,运用计量统计、博弈论、综合评价、风险控制与结构方程等方法,对腐败预警预控理论展开较为系统、深入的研究。首先分析了腐败预警预控体系的理论基础,其次探讨了腐败预警原理与方法、腐败预控原理与途径,最后通过实证论证了本文的理论成果并提出指导腐败预警预控实践的原则与经验。全文主要内容共分为七部分：
第一部分：指出腐败预警预控研究的背景、目的与意义,总结并评析了腐败预警预控管理的国内外相关理论研究现状,设计了本文研究的方法与技术路线。
第二部分：从政治学、社会学、经济学角度对腐败加以界定,剖析了腐败发生的经济人本性、制度漏洞、复杂环境的经济学成因,勾勒出腐败与反腐的经济成本曲线；分析了公职人员腐败的内生与外生警源的主要形式,以反腐预警预控经济收益为参照构建了反腐预警预控的基础信息量与启动时间点的决策模型,以警源分析得分、腐败指数得分、举报监督得分和腐败迹象得分为判断要素展开岗位腐败趋势预测；探讨了腐败预警预控体系的组织结构、人员结构及该体系的组织功能；设计了以公职部门为主体的警源分析、构建预警预控指标体系、腐败岗位趋势预测、警示教育为主要环节的腐败预警预控的主流程,以多方参与主体为核心构建了全方位、全过程的腐败预警预控网状式辅助流程。
第三部分：首先揭示了腐败预警的信息循环原理,主要包括信息贯穿始终的循环原理,四维源头的信息形成原理,多元性与及时性的信息获取原理；其次,描述了以政治觉悟低下为核心的腐败征兆表征,以需求层次理论解析了腐败征兆倒金字塔发展趋势,运用贝叶斯定理构建了基于腐败征兆分析的预警决策模型；再次,给出了腐败预警的警示内涵,提出了腐败心理的初期警示法与腐败预警的警示防线法,建立了腐败行为的期望收益及决策均衡模型,由此验证了腐败预警的警示价值及其价值实现过程；随后,深入探讨了宏观预警外部动因与微观预警的内部成因,相应提出了宏观与微观预警对策,设计了宏观与微观综合预警模式；最后,详述了腐败虚警、漏警的各种成因,提出了虚警与漏警的识别方法与判别流程。
第四部分：分析了腐败的集体风险预警点与个人风险预警点的内涵与形式,详述了腐败风险预警点的顺推与逆推方法,指出腐败风险点的制度不完善与岗位设置不合理、思想道德素质低下、外部诱惑、群众监督意识淡薄的四种诱因,探讨了腐败风险预警点的四种途径；介绍了腐败预警推断的主观概率预警法、蓝色预警法、红色预警法与多元回归分析法；设计了包括制度腐败、组织审计、个人廉政、群众评价、腐败因素五个二级指标的腐败预警指标体系；依据腐败威胁程度与官员个人素质实现警报区间的四级划分,以预警紧急程度、预警作用时间为基础将警报时间分隔为短期与长期两种。
第五部分：提出了腐败时间判断超前、预控实施时机超前、方案制定视角超前的腐败预控超前表征,阐述了腐败超前预控的适度性、渗透性与经济性原则；基于信息集成、方法集成与渠道集成剖析了预控的集成原理,探讨了腐败预控的集成的社会参与原则、综合协调原则与分解定位原则；从时间效益、经济效益与社会效益三个方面解析了腐败预控的效率,指出腐败预控效率提升的系统原则、长效原则与强制原则；以腐败预控部门、政府官员为博弈主体构建腐败预控的博弈模型,得出相应的反腐对策。
第六部分：以引导帮扶制度、指标反馈制度、惩治制度以及监督制度为对象探索了制度安排,剖析了行为准则制度化、准则普及制度化、准则执行制度化、准则监督制度化等制度创新内容；分析了腐败预控涵盖腐败预控物质文化激励、腐败预控制度文化激励、腐败预控精神文化激励的文化激励方法,从核心成员角度将腐败预控文化激励区分为领袖文化激励与团队文化激励,辨析了腐败预控的文化激励的激励与约束并行、激励与目标结合以及激励与引导的三大要点,从人力资源选、育、用、留等四个关键点出发研究了腐败教育在不同阶段的侧重点,建立了以警示教育、岗位廉政教育、示范教育为主体的教育方法体系。
第七部分：介绍近年发生的典型腐败案例,运用群体案例分析法指出腐败原因、危害及启示,提出腐败预警预控体现建立的实践规律、措施以及腐败预警预控的实践方法；构建了腐败预警预控的结构方程模型,验证了相关理论假设。
On the basis of management science, psychology science, sociology science and economics, this dissertation carries out a systematic research on the theory of corruption prewarning and precontrol by using methods of statistical measurement, game theory, comprehensive evaluation, risk control structural equation, etc. It first analyzes the theoretical basis for corruption prewarning and precontrol system, then discusses principles and methods of corruption prewarning, principles and methods of corruption precontrol, and in the end empirically demonstrates theoretical achievements in this study and puts forward the norms and experience guiding corruption prewarning and precontrol practices. There are 7 parts in this dissertation.
Part 1:points out the background, objectives and significance of the research; summarizes and analyzes relevant literature review; designs research methods and routes in this dissertation.
Part 2:defines corruption in terms of political science, sociology science, economics; probes into such economics causes of corrupt occurrence as the nature of economic man, loopholes in the system, complex environment, draws the economic cost curve of corruption and anti-corruption; analyzes major forms of internal and external crisis origins of civil servants'corruption, constructs the decision model of basic information content and start time point for anti-corruption prewarning and precontrol based on the economic benefit of anti-corruption prewarning and precontrol, predicts the tendency of post corruption in line with the score of crisis origin analysis, the score of corruption index, the score of supervision and report, and score of corruption sign; discusses the organization structure, personnel makeup of the corruption prewarning and precontrol system and its organizational function; designs the main flows of corruption prewarning and precontrol, whose major links are analyzing crisis origin(with public departments as the main part), constructing the index system for prewarning and precontrol, predicting the tendency of post corruption and Warning education, constructs a comprehensive and overall-process netlike supporting flow of corruption prewarning and precontrol, the core of the supporting flow being multi-participants.
Part 3:first reveals the information circulation principles of corruption prewarning, which mainly include the circulation principle in which information exists from the beginning to the end, the formation principle for information with four-dimensional sources, acquisition principle for information of pluralism and timeliness; then depicts the representation of corruption signs whose core is low political consciousness, analyzes the inverted-pyramid development tendency of corruption signs on the basis of hierarchy theory of needs, constructs a corruption-sign-analysis decision model by using Bayes theorem; again, puts forward warning connotation of corruption prewarning, introduces the initial warning method for corruption mentality and the method of warning defense line for corruption prewarning, establishes the expected revenue and decision-making equilibrium model of malversations, and on this basis, verifies the value of warning for corruption prewarning and the realization process of the value; then, thoroughly explores the external agents of macro-prewarning and the internal factors of micro-prewarning, puts forward corresponding marco-and micro-prewarning strategies, designs a comprehensive marco-and micro-prewarning model; finally, dwells on various causes of corruption false alarm, and corruption miss-alarm, proposes the identification method and distinguishing procedure for false-alarm and missing alarm.
Part 4:analyzes connotations and forms of collective risk prewarning point and individual risk prewarning point of corruption, elaborates on the pushing method and inverse-deducing method of corruption risk prewarning point, states briefly that the system for corruption risk point is not perfect and such four types of incentives as unreasonable post setting, low ideological and ethical standards, external temptation and low supervisory consciousness of masses, probes into four ways for corruption risk prewarning point; introduces subjective probability warning method, blue warning method, red warning method, and multiple regression analysis to deduce corruption prewarning, works out a corruption prewarning index system which involves such 5 secondary indexes as system corruption, organizational audit, personal integrity, mass evaluation, corruption factor; in line with the 4 grade divisions in the alarm interval ranging from threat level of corruption to realization of officials'personal qualities, divides warning times into short-term and long-term types in accordance with urgent degree of prewarning and action time of prewarning.
Part 5:presents 3 representations of anticipatory corruption precontrol, i.e., anticipatory judgment of corruption time, anticipatory opportunities of precontrol implementation, and anticipatory perspectives of programma formulation, expounds the moderation criterion, permeability criterion and economy criterion for anticipatory precontrol; on the basis of information integration, method integration and channel integration, analyzes the integration principle of precontrol, discusses social participation standard, comprehensive coordination standard, decomposing and positioning standard of the integration of corruption precontrol; from perspectives of time benefit, economic benefic and social benefit, analyzes the efficiency of corruption precontrol, states clearly the system principle, permanent principle and compulsory principle for the enhancement of precontrol efficiency; with corruption precontrol depattment, government officials as the main body of the game, sets up a game model for corruption precontrol and proposes corresponding countermeasures to combat corruption
Part 6:taking the guide and support mechanism, index feedback mechanism, penal mechanism, and supervision mechanism as subjects, examines some institutional innovations like institutionalization of code of conduct, institutionalization of norm popularization, institutionalization of norm supervision; analyzes the method of cultural motivation which covers material culture motivation for corruption prewarning, institutional culture motivation for corruption prewarnig, spiritual culture motivation for corruption prewarning, classifies the culture motivation for corruption prewarning into leadership culture motivation and team culture motivation, distinguishes the three points(which are coexistence of incentive and constraint, combination of incentive and target, incentive and guidance)in the culture motivation for corruption prewarning; starting from the 4 key aspects of selecting, fostering, using and retaining human resource, studies the focus of corrupt education at different stage, builds an educational method system whose main parts are warning education, post incorruptibility education and demonstration education.
Part 7:presents typical corruption cases in recent years, gives out the reasons to corrupt, harms brought by corruption and lessons by adopting the method of group case analysis, puts forward rules of practice and measures for the establishment of the corruption prewarning and precontrol system, and practice methods for corruption prewarning and precontrol.This part sets up the SEM model of the prewarning and precontrol of corruption, proves corresponding theory hypotheses.
第一部分：指出腐败预警预控研究的背景、目的与意义,总结并评析了腐败预警预控管理的国内外相关理论研究现状,设计了本文研究的方法与技术路线。
第二部分：从政治学、社会学、经济学角度对腐败加以界定,剖析了腐败发生的经济人本性、制度漏洞、复杂环境的经济学成因,勾勒出腐败与反腐的经济成本曲线；分析了公职人员腐败的内生与外生警源的主要形式,以反腐预警预控经济收益为参照构建了反腐预警预控的基础信息量与启动时间点的决策模型,以警源分析得分、腐败指数得分、举报监督得分和腐败迹象得分为判断要素展开岗位腐败趋势预测；探讨了腐败预警预控体系的组织结构、人员结构及该体系的组织功能；设计了以公职部门为主体的警源分析、构建预警预控指标体系、腐败岗位趋势预测、警示教育为主要环节的腐败预警预控的主流程,以多方参与主体为核心构建了全方位、全过程的腐败预警预控网状式辅助流程。
第三部分：首先揭示了腐败预警的信息循环原理,主要包括信息贯穿始终的循环原理,四维源头的信息形成原理,多元性与及时性的信息获取原理；其次,描述了以政治觉悟低下为核心的腐败征兆表征,以需求层次理论解析了腐败征兆倒金字塔发展趋势,运用贝叶斯定理构建了基于腐败征兆分析的预警决策模型；再次,给出了腐败预警的警示内涵,提出了腐败心理的初期警示法与腐败预警的警示防线法,建立了腐败行为的期望收益及决策均衡模型,由此验证了腐败预警的警示价值及其价值实现过程；随后,深入探讨了宏观预警外部动因与微观预警的内部成因,相应提出了宏观与微观预警对策,设计了宏观与微观综合预警模式；最后,详述了腐败虚警、漏警的各种成因,提出了虚警与漏警的识别方法与判别流程。
第四部分：分析了腐败的集体风险预警点与个人风险预警点的内涵与形式,详述了腐败风险预警点的顺推与逆推方法,指出腐败风险点的制度不完善与岗位设置不合理、思想道德素质低下、外部诱惑、群众监督意识淡薄的四种诱因,探讨了腐败风险预警点的四种途径；介绍了腐败预警推断的主观概率预警法、蓝色预警法、红色预警法与多元回归分析法；设计了包括制度腐败、组织审计、个人廉政、群众评价、腐败因素五个二级指标的腐败预警指标体系；依据腐败威胁程度与官员个人素质实现警报区间的四级划分,以预警紧急程度、预警作用时间为基础将警报时间分隔为短期与长期两种。
第五部分：提出了腐败时间判断超前、预控实施时机超前、方案制定视角超前的腐败预控超前表征,阐述了腐败超前预控的适度性、渗透性与经济性原则；基于信息集成、方法集成与渠道集成剖析了预控的集成原理,探讨了腐败预控的集成的社会参与原则、综合协调原则与分解定位原则；从时间效益、经济效益与社会效益三个方面解析了腐败预控的效率,指出腐败预控效率提升的系统原则、长效原则与强制原则；以腐败预控部门、政府官员为博弈主体构建腐败预控的博弈模型,得出相应的反腐对策。
第六部分：以引导帮扶制度、指标反馈制度、惩治制度以及监督制度为对象探索了制度安排,剖析了行为准则制度化、准则普及制度化、准则执行制度化、准则监督制度化等制度创新内容；分析了腐败预控涵盖腐败预控物质文化激励、腐败预控制度文化激励、腐败预控精神文化激励的文化激励方法,从核心成员角度将腐败预控文化激励区分为领袖文化激励与团队文化激励,辨析了腐败预控的文化激励的激励与约束并行、激励与目标结合以及激励与引导的三大要点,从人力资源选、育、用、留等四个关键点出发研究了腐败教育在不同阶段的侧重点,建立了以警示教育、岗位廉政教育、示范教育为主体的教育方法体系。
第七部分：介绍近年发生的典型腐败案例,运用群体案例分析法指出腐败原因、危害及启示,提出腐败预警预控体现建立的实践规律、措施以及腐败预警预控的实践方法；构建了腐败预警预控的结构方程模型,验证了相关理论假设。
On the basis of management science, psychology science, sociology science and economics, this dissertation carries out a systematic research on the theory of corruption prewarning and precontrol by using methods of statistical measurement, game theory, comprehensive evaluation, risk control structural equation, etc. It first analyzes the theoretical basis for corruption prewarning and precontrol system, then discusses principles and methods of corruption prewarning, principles and methods of corruption precontrol, and in the end empirically demonstrates theoretical achievements in this study and puts forward the norms and experience guiding corruption prewarning and precontrol practices. There are 7 parts in this dissertation.
Part 1:points out the background, objectives and significance of the research; summarizes and analyzes relevant literature review; designs research methods and routes in this dissertation.
Part 2:defines corruption in terms of political science, sociology science, economics; probes into such economics causes of corrupt occurrence as the nature of economic man, loopholes in the system, complex environment, draws the economic cost curve of corruption and anti-corruption; analyzes major forms of internal and external crisis origins of civil servants'corruption, constructs the decision model of basic information content and start time point for anti-corruption prewarning and precontrol based on the economic benefit of anti-corruption prewarning and precontrol, predicts the tendency of post corruption in line with the score of crisis origin analysis, the score of corruption index, the score of supervision and report, and score of corruption sign; discusses the organization structure, personnel makeup of the corruption prewarning and precontrol system and its organizational function; designs the main flows of corruption prewarning and precontrol, whose major links are analyzing crisis origin(with public departments as the main part), constructing the index system for prewarning and precontrol, predicting the tendency of post corruption and Warning education, constructs a comprehensive and overall-process netlike supporting flow of corruption prewarning and precontrol, the core of the supporting flow being multi-participants.
Part 3:first reveals the information circulation principles of corruption prewarning, which mainly include the circulation principle in which information exists from the beginning to the end, the formation principle for information with four-dimensional sources, acquisition principle for information of pluralism and timeliness; then depicts the representation of corruption signs whose core is low political consciousness, analyzes the inverted-pyramid development tendency of corruption signs on the basis of hierarchy theory of needs, constructs a corruption-sign-analysis decision model by using Bayes theorem; again, puts forward warning connotation of corruption prewarning, introduces the initial warning method for corruption mentality and the method of warning defense line for corruption prewarning, establishes the expected revenue and decision-making equilibrium model of malversations, and on this basis, verifies the value of warning for corruption prewarning and the realization process of the value; then, thoroughly explores the external agents of macro-prewarning and the internal factors of micro-prewarning, puts forward corresponding marco-and micro-prewarning strategies, designs a comprehensive marco-and micro-prewarning model; finally, dwells on various causes of corruption false alarm, and corruption miss-alarm, proposes the identification method and distinguishing procedure for false-alarm and missing alarm.
Part 4:analyzes connotations and forms of collective risk prewarning point and individual risk prewarning point of corruption, elaborates on the pushing method and inverse-deducing method of corruption risk prewarning point, states briefly that the system for corruption risk point is not perfect and such four types of incentives as unreasonable post setting, low ideological and ethical standards, external temptation and low supervisory consciousness of masses, probes into four ways for corruption risk prewarning point; introduces subjective probability warning method, blue warning method, red warning method, and multiple regression analysis to deduce corruption prewarning, works out a corruption prewarning index system which involves such 5 secondary indexes as system corruption, organizational audit, personal integrity, mass evaluation, corruption factor; in line with the 4 grade divisions in the alarm interval ranging from threat level of corruption to realization of officials'personal qualities, divides warning times into short-term and long-term types in accordance with urgent degree of prewarning and action time of prewarning.
Part 5:presents 3 representations of anticipatory corruption precontrol, i.e., anticipatory judgment of corruption time, anticipatory opportunities of precontrol implementation, and anticipatory perspectives of programma formulation, expounds the moderation criterion, permeability criterion and economy criterion for anticipatory precontrol; on the basis of information integration, method integration and channel integration, analyzes the integration principle of precontrol, discusses social participation standard, comprehensive coordination standard, decomposing and positioning standard of the integration of corruption precontrol; from perspectives of time benefit, economic benefic and social benefit, analyzes the efficiency of corruption precontrol, states clearly the system principle, permanent principle and compulsory principle for the enhancement of precontrol efficiency; with corruption precontrol depattment, government officials as the main body of the game, sets up a game model for corruption precontrol and proposes corresponding countermeasures to combat corruption
Part 6:taking the guide and support mechanism, index feedback mechanism, penal mechanism, and supervision mechanism as subjects, examines some institutional innovations like institutionalization of code of conduct, institutionalization of norm popularization, institutionalization of norm supervision; analyzes the method of cultural motivation which covers material culture motivation for corruption prewarning, institutional culture motivation for corruption prewarnig, spiritual culture motivation for corruption prewarning, classifies the culture motivation for corruption prewarning into leadership culture motivation and team culture motivation, distinguishes the three points(which are coexistence of incentive and constraint, combination of incentive and target, incentive and guidance)in the culture motivation for corruption prewarning; starting from the 4 key aspects of selecting, fostering, using and retaining human resource, studies the focus of corrupt education at different stage, builds an educational method system whose main parts are warning education, post incorruptibility education and demonstration education.
Part 7:presents typical corruption cases in recent years, gives out the reasons to corrupt, harms brought by corruption and lessons by adopting the method of group case analysis, puts forward rules of practice and measures for the establishment of the corruption prewarning and precontrol system, and practice methods for corruption prewarning and precontrol.This part sets up the SEM model of the prewarning and precontrol of corruption, proves corresponding theory hypotheses.
引文
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