非常规突发事件态势演化和调控机制研究
|
摘要
人类发展的进程中总是伴随着诸多风险,各类突发性事件频繁发生,而剧烈强度也越来越大。同时,由于不同社会子系统之间的关联度、依赖性和耦合性日益增强,局部性和常规性的突发事件越来越容易演变成具有高度破坏性的非常规突发事件。近年来,我国发生了一系列大规模突发事件,不仅造成了大量的人员伤亡,更严重影响到经济社会发展,直接经济损失约占我国GDP总量的3.5%以上,给社会稳定和可持续发展带来严重威胁。提高非常规突发事件的应对能力是提高执政能力、加强社会管理、建设服务型政府的迫切要求；加强非常规突发事件应急管理研究不仅是中国的要求,也是整个世界的要求。
本文以非常规突发事件的态势演化规律和相关调控机制为主要研究对象,研究内容包括突发事件的态势演化机理、路径、模式和调控机制,突发事件状态下公众的个体行为决策模式、群体行为决策模式以及政府信息调控策略,突发事件影响的扩散模式和评估方法,承载区域和承载主体应对非常规突发事件的弹性评估及改进对策。
突发事件的态势演化受到事件自身属性、应急处置决策、承载区域的区域弹性、承载主体应急素质等内外部因素的影响,是一个复杂的动态系统。本文在态势管理思想的基础上,提出由承载力、破坏力和控制力组成的三维分析框架,把态势演化路径分为内力驱动演化路径与合力驱动演化路径两种类型,研究了基于路径差异的态势演化机理。应用社会物理学相关理论,构建了突发事件态势演化和态势调控的数学建模,研究了前向调控、同步调控和后向调控等三种态势调控机制,其中前向型调控是最优策略。
突发状态下个体的行为决策受到风险态度、风险认知和政府信赖等因素的影响,政府有效地信息供给可以缩小公众非理性行为的空间集合。突发事件信息传播过程会带来非直接受害群体的虚拟风险体验,而基于虚拟风险体验和记忆回溯的决策模式存在代表性、易得性、锚定和调整等直觉偏差,容易导致非理性行为。个体非理性行为在信息约束下会实现大范围的快速传染,从而诱发集群性非理性行为,这将加剧态势演化的复杂性和不确定性。政府及时地信息披露,有助于平息这种非理性情绪感染和行为扩散,但信息传播过程中要关注公众的渠道选择规律,实证分析显示我国公众的信息渠道选择存在明显偏好。
非常规突发事件影响是态势的函数,突发事件的影响扩散是由物理影响向社会影响的非线性蔓延过程,其中信息传播、风险的社会放大会具有显著地推动作用。根据突发事件影响扩散的时间序列特征和演化特征,突发事件影响扩散可分为即时型、突发型和舒缓型三种类型。在突发事件影响扩散函数模型中,引入表征突发事件属性的参数n,研究发现n=2是即时型扩散和突发型扩散之间的临界阈值,n=5是突发型扩散与舒缓型扩散之间的临界阈值。
阿玛蒂亚森提出的可行能力方法为评估突发事件的综合影响提供了新的理论视角,通过因突发事件而造成的个人可行能力的变化定量评估突发事件的综合影响是可能的。根据人类发展指数评估方法,构建突发事件影响指数评估模型,选择突发事件中的死亡人数、受伤人数、无家可归人数以及直接经济损失作为可行能力的指标,对国内外发生的重大突发事件影响评估进行了案例分析和比较研究,发现突发事件的影响指数和区域承载力、经济社会发展可持续性等有关,区域的承载能力越强,突发事件的影响指数就越低。
提高承载区域的机构弹性和公众的应急素质,将有助于提高突发事件的应急管理绩效,而我国各省区的区域弹性和公众应急素质都存在结构性差异,有较大的提升空间。基于DEA方法的区域弹性指数评价发现,单纯的经济增长并不能有效提高区域弹性指数,而经济结构的调整、科技的支撑与引领、生态环境的保护等和区域弹性正相关,因此转变经济发展方式有助于提高区域弹性。公众应急弹性与受教育程度、收入水平等因素显著相关,总体上来看,我国公众的面对突发状态的脆弱性较高,有必要从教育、培训和演练等各方面着手,加强公众应急能力建设。
The process of human development is always accompanied by a number of risks, all types of emergencies occur frequently, and the destructive power of emergencies is increasing. Also, due to the correlation, dependency, and coupling between different social subsystems, a partial or routine emergency more likely to become a highly destructive unconventional emergency. In recent years, China suffered a series of large-scale emergencies. It not only caused heavy casualties, but also leaded to serious economic losses which are about 3.5% of GDP. Over the same time, those unconventional emergencies posed some serious threat to social stability and sustainable development of economic. Improving the government's response ability to unconventional emergency contributes to increase the governance ability, and helps to enhance government's social administration capacity, and it is also the requirements of building a service-oriented government. Strengthen the research on management theory of unconventional emergencies, is not only China's needs, but also the whole world.Situation evolution of unconventional emergency and the related regulation mechanism is the main research object of this paper. The research topics including the trend evolution mechanism, path, pattern, and mechanism of emergency, the decision-making patterns of individual behavior, the decision-making patterns of group behavior and government information control strategies under the state of public emergency, the diffusion pattern and assessment methold of emergency impacts, the assessment models and countermeasures of regional emergency response capacity and public resilience.
The situation evolution of emergencies is a complex dynamic system, affected by the property of the event itself, emergency response decision-making, the resilience of the bearing region, and the publici resilience. Based on the situation management theory, a three-dimensional analysis framework was put forwarded, consisting of capacity to bear, capacity to destroy, and capacity to control, which divided the situation evolution path into internal forces driving and hybrid forces driving, and the mechanisms of the situation evolution based on the differences of the paths are also studied. Using the theory of social physics, this paper builds a mathematical model of situation evolution and situation control, and studies the three main kinds of control including forward control, Synchronization control and backward control, of which the forward control is the optimal strategy.
Individuals often make decisions according to intuition and experience in crisis situation. Because of intuitive bias, these decisions often lead to irrational behaviors of individuals and even non-rational behaviors of groups. The present paper analysis individuals' and groups' behavioral decision-making under emergency situation based on Prospect Theory and constructed a framework of government's information suplying mechanism with three dimensions such as risk attitude, risk perception and trust, we considered that the government can reduce the group behavioral space (GBS) through the effective crisis communication and it can reduce the uncertainty of emergency response. And we verified the validity of the framework through two typical cases such as SARS incident and Wenchuan earthquake. At the same time, people have their preference in deciding how to obtain information, and their favors are obviously related with their personal characteristics.
The impact of unconventional emergencies is a function of emergency situation; the diffusion of emergencies is a nonlinear process from the physical impacts to the social impacts in which information dissemination and social amplification of risks have a significant role. According to the time-series characteristics and evolution characteristics, the diffusion of emergencies has three models which are peak-bottom type, burst type and ease type. There is a characterization Parameter n in the diffusion function which is representation of the properties of emergency events. We found that n=2 is the threshold of peak-bottom type to burst type, and n=5 is the threshold of burst type to ease type.
There is a widely acknowledged need for a single composite index that provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of unconventional emergencies. A composite index combines and logically organizes important information policy-makers need to allocate resources for the recovery from unconventional emergencies; it can also inform hazard mitigation strategies. A capabilities-based approach was first developed by philosopher Martha Nussbaum and economist Amartya Sen, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1998 for this work and its application to development economics and policy.The capabilities framework is currently used by the United Nations and development agencies to estimate societal development through the Human Development Index (HDI). In this paper, we propose to measure the net impact of unconventional emergencies which is called "Emenrgency Impact Index (EII)"by looking at the impact of an emergency on the capabilities of individuals, and so, on their standard of living and well being. A few selected capabilities such as number of individuals killed, number of individuals injured, number of individuals left homeless and direct economic losses/GDP, can be used to assess the expected change in the quality of life of individuals in the society in the aftermath of an unconventional emergency.
Scientific assessment of the regional emergency response capacity and enhance regional resilience are important paths to improve the social management capacity of government. This paper constructed an evaluation model of regional resilience based on the DEA theory, and measured each province's "regional resilience index" of mainland China from 2001 to 2009 through empirical analysis. The study found that economic growth alone can not bring optimization of regional resilience, more importantly, transformation of the mode of economic development, readjust the economic structure, strengthen scientific and technological innovation, focus on the rational use of ecological resources and the protection of environment have positive externalities to enhancing regional resilience. The present paper also analyzes the public vulnerability and establishes an evaluation model for public resilience; and makes an empirical research through a questionnaire survey in East China, we found that the public vulnerability is very high and the public resilience is quite low. On this basis we put forward some countermeasures and proposals for building public emergency capacity.
本文以非常规突发事件的态势演化规律和相关调控机制为主要研究对象,研究内容包括突发事件的态势演化机理、路径、模式和调控机制,突发事件状态下公众的个体行为决策模式、群体行为决策模式以及政府信息调控策略,突发事件影响的扩散模式和评估方法,承载区域和承载主体应对非常规突发事件的弹性评估及改进对策。
突发事件的态势演化受到事件自身属性、应急处置决策、承载区域的区域弹性、承载主体应急素质等内外部因素的影响,是一个复杂的动态系统。本文在态势管理思想的基础上,提出由承载力、破坏力和控制力组成的三维分析框架,把态势演化路径分为内力驱动演化路径与合力驱动演化路径两种类型,研究了基于路径差异的态势演化机理。应用社会物理学相关理论,构建了突发事件态势演化和态势调控的数学建模,研究了前向调控、同步调控和后向调控等三种态势调控机制,其中前向型调控是最优策略。
突发状态下个体的行为决策受到风险态度、风险认知和政府信赖等因素的影响,政府有效地信息供给可以缩小公众非理性行为的空间集合。突发事件信息传播过程会带来非直接受害群体的虚拟风险体验,而基于虚拟风险体验和记忆回溯的决策模式存在代表性、易得性、锚定和调整等直觉偏差,容易导致非理性行为。个体非理性行为在信息约束下会实现大范围的快速传染,从而诱发集群性非理性行为,这将加剧态势演化的复杂性和不确定性。政府及时地信息披露,有助于平息这种非理性情绪感染和行为扩散,但信息传播过程中要关注公众的渠道选择规律,实证分析显示我国公众的信息渠道选择存在明显偏好。
非常规突发事件影响是态势的函数,突发事件的影响扩散是由物理影响向社会影响的非线性蔓延过程,其中信息传播、风险的社会放大会具有显著地推动作用。根据突发事件影响扩散的时间序列特征和演化特征,突发事件影响扩散可分为即时型、突发型和舒缓型三种类型。在突发事件影响扩散函数模型中,引入表征突发事件属性的参数n,研究发现n=2是即时型扩散和突发型扩散之间的临界阈值,n=5是突发型扩散与舒缓型扩散之间的临界阈值。
阿玛蒂亚森提出的可行能力方法为评估突发事件的综合影响提供了新的理论视角,通过因突发事件而造成的个人可行能力的变化定量评估突发事件的综合影响是可能的。根据人类发展指数评估方法,构建突发事件影响指数评估模型,选择突发事件中的死亡人数、受伤人数、无家可归人数以及直接经济损失作为可行能力的指标,对国内外发生的重大突发事件影响评估进行了案例分析和比较研究,发现突发事件的影响指数和区域承载力、经济社会发展可持续性等有关,区域的承载能力越强,突发事件的影响指数就越低。
提高承载区域的机构弹性和公众的应急素质,将有助于提高突发事件的应急管理绩效,而我国各省区的区域弹性和公众应急素质都存在结构性差异,有较大的提升空间。基于DEA方法的区域弹性指数评价发现,单纯的经济增长并不能有效提高区域弹性指数,而经济结构的调整、科技的支撑与引领、生态环境的保护等和区域弹性正相关,因此转变经济发展方式有助于提高区域弹性。公众应急弹性与受教育程度、收入水平等因素显著相关,总体上来看,我国公众的面对突发状态的脆弱性较高,有必要从教育、培训和演练等各方面着手,加强公众应急能力建设。
The process of human development is always accompanied by a number of risks, all types of emergencies occur frequently, and the destructive power of emergencies is increasing. Also, due to the correlation, dependency, and coupling between different social subsystems, a partial or routine emergency more likely to become a highly destructive unconventional emergency. In recent years, China suffered a series of large-scale emergencies. It not only caused heavy casualties, but also leaded to serious economic losses which are about 3.5% of GDP. Over the same time, those unconventional emergencies posed some serious threat to social stability and sustainable development of economic. Improving the government's response ability to unconventional emergency contributes to increase the governance ability, and helps to enhance government's social administration capacity, and it is also the requirements of building a service-oriented government. Strengthen the research on management theory of unconventional emergencies, is not only China's needs, but also the whole world.Situation evolution of unconventional emergency and the related regulation mechanism is the main research object of this paper. The research topics including the trend evolution mechanism, path, pattern, and mechanism of emergency, the decision-making patterns of individual behavior, the decision-making patterns of group behavior and government information control strategies under the state of public emergency, the diffusion pattern and assessment methold of emergency impacts, the assessment models and countermeasures of regional emergency response capacity and public resilience.
The situation evolution of emergencies is a complex dynamic system, affected by the property of the event itself, emergency response decision-making, the resilience of the bearing region, and the publici resilience. Based on the situation management theory, a three-dimensional analysis framework was put forwarded, consisting of capacity to bear, capacity to destroy, and capacity to control, which divided the situation evolution path into internal forces driving and hybrid forces driving, and the mechanisms of the situation evolution based on the differences of the paths are also studied. Using the theory of social physics, this paper builds a mathematical model of situation evolution and situation control, and studies the three main kinds of control including forward control, Synchronization control and backward control, of which the forward control is the optimal strategy.
Individuals often make decisions according to intuition and experience in crisis situation. Because of intuitive bias, these decisions often lead to irrational behaviors of individuals and even non-rational behaviors of groups. The present paper analysis individuals' and groups' behavioral decision-making under emergency situation based on Prospect Theory and constructed a framework of government's information suplying mechanism with three dimensions such as risk attitude, risk perception and trust, we considered that the government can reduce the group behavioral space (GBS) through the effective crisis communication and it can reduce the uncertainty of emergency response. And we verified the validity of the framework through two typical cases such as SARS incident and Wenchuan earthquake. At the same time, people have their preference in deciding how to obtain information, and their favors are obviously related with their personal characteristics.
The impact of unconventional emergencies is a function of emergency situation; the diffusion of emergencies is a nonlinear process from the physical impacts to the social impacts in which information dissemination and social amplification of risks have a significant role. According to the time-series characteristics and evolution characteristics, the diffusion of emergencies has three models which are peak-bottom type, burst type and ease type. There is a characterization Parameter n in the diffusion function which is representation of the properties of emergency events. We found that n=2 is the threshold of peak-bottom type to burst type, and n=5 is the threshold of burst type to ease type.
There is a widely acknowledged need for a single composite index that provides a comprehensive picture of the impact of unconventional emergencies. A composite index combines and logically organizes important information policy-makers need to allocate resources for the recovery from unconventional emergencies; it can also inform hazard mitigation strategies. A capabilities-based approach was first developed by philosopher Martha Nussbaum and economist Amartya Sen, who won the Nobel Prize in Economics in 1998 for this work and its application to development economics and policy.The capabilities framework is currently used by the United Nations and development agencies to estimate societal development through the Human Development Index (HDI). In this paper, we propose to measure the net impact of unconventional emergencies which is called "Emenrgency Impact Index (EII)"by looking at the impact of an emergency on the capabilities of individuals, and so, on their standard of living and well being. A few selected capabilities such as number of individuals killed, number of individuals injured, number of individuals left homeless and direct economic losses/GDP, can be used to assess the expected change in the quality of life of individuals in the society in the aftermath of an unconventional emergency.
Scientific assessment of the regional emergency response capacity and enhance regional resilience are important paths to improve the social management capacity of government. This paper constructed an evaluation model of regional resilience based on the DEA theory, and measured each province's "regional resilience index" of mainland China from 2001 to 2009 through empirical analysis. The study found that economic growth alone can not bring optimization of regional resilience, more importantly, transformation of the mode of economic development, readjust the economic structure, strengthen scientific and technological innovation, focus on the rational use of ecological resources and the protection of environment have positive externalities to enhancing regional resilience. The present paper also analyzes the public vulnerability and establishes an evaluation model for public resilience; and makes an empirical research through a questionnaire survey in East China, we found that the public vulnerability is very high and the public resilience is quite low. On this basis we put forward some countermeasures and proposals for building public emergency capacity.
引文
阿马蒂亚·森著,任赜,于真译.以自由看待发展[M].北京：中国人民大学出版社,2002：15-18.
北京市突发公共事件管理委员会.首都市民防灾应急手册[M].北京：北京出版社,2006.
曹杰,杨晓光,汪寿阳.突发公共事件应急管理研究中的重要科学问题[J].公共管理学报,2007,4(2)：84-93.
陈安,赵燕.我国应急管理的进展与趋势[J].安全,2007(3)：1-4.
程美东.透视当代中国重大突发事件(1949—2005)[M].北京：中共党史出版社,2008.
池宏,祁明亮,计雷等.城市突发公共事件应急管理体系研究[J].中国公共安全(学术版),2005(3)：21-32.
高彦生.韩国解禁美国牛肉引发政治危机对我国的启示[J].中国畜牧兽医,2008,35(8)：5-8.
韩智勇,翁文国,张维.重大研究计划“非常规突发事件应急管理研究”的科学背景、目标与组织管理[J].中国科学基金,2009(4)：215-220.
联合国开发计划署.2010年人类发展报告：国家真正的财富-人类发展进程[EB/OL]. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_CN_Complete_rev.pdf.2010.
范维澄.突发公共事件应急信息系统总体方案构思[J].信息化建设,2005,9,11-14.
黄进,赵宇亮等.汶川地震后四川大学学生应急能力及心理状况调查[J].中国循证医学杂志,2008,8(11)：931-934.
惠志斌,何小菁,吴建华.试论国家综合性危机信息管理系统的建立[J].情报杂志,2004,8,56-58.
侯琳,杨帆等.重大交通突发事件中的态势评估研究[J].交通信息与安全,2009,27(149)：67-73.
刘拓,傅毓维,朱发根.公共危机伪信息混沌论[J].情报理论与实践,2008,6,825-828.
李志宏,何济乐,吴鹏飞.突发性公共危机信息传播模式的时段性特征及管理对策[J].图书情报工作,2007,51(10)：88-91.
吕浩,王超.重大突发事件的扩散机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2006(09)：7-10.
毛德华,何梓霖,贺新光等.洪灾风险分析的国内外研究现状与展望(Ⅰ)——洪水为害风险分析研究现状[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1)：139-149.
牛文元.社会物理学与中国社会稳定预警系统.中国科学院院刊[J].2001(1)：15-20.
牛文元.社会物理学：学科意义与应用价值[J].科学论坛,2001,54(3)：32-35.
牛文元.基于社会物理学的社会和谐方程[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(4)：343-347.
彭国文,何剑蜂,林锦炎,等.广东省传染性非典型肺炎流行病学特征初步调查[J].中华流行病学杂志,2003,24(5)：350-352.
秦启文.突发事件的管理与应对[M].北京：新华出版社,2004.
邵培仁.传播学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2001.
邵怡菲,张梦新.论突发性公共事件中的媒介恐慌[J].当代传播,2009(2)：45-46.
沈露莹,葛寅,殷文杰,黄玥,詹歆晔.上海转变经济发展方式评价指标体系研究[J].科学发展,2010,6：11-35.
孙多勇.突发事件与行为决策[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2007.
唐钧.建构全面整合的政府公共危机信息管理系统[J].信息化建设,2004,10,12-15.
王合兴,唐任武.美国应急协调体系特征及社会文化认同状况分析[J].城市与减灾,2006,8(2)：86-88.
王静爱,史培军,朱骊等.中国自然灾害数据库的建立与应用[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),1995,31(1)：121-126.
王乐夫,马骏等.公共部门危机管理体制：以非典型肺炎事件为例[J].中国行政管理.2003,(7)：23-27.
王强.试论构建公共应急管理的应对网络体系[J].广东行政学院学报,2005,17(6)：11-14.
王伟,靖继鹏.基于CAS的危机信息管理体系的构建.情报学报,2008,25(7)：446-450.
王旭坤.我国现行应急立法体系和预案制度评析[J].中国减灾,2008(10)：27-29.
魏玖长,赵定涛.基于元搜索引擎的危机信息监控系统研究与实现[J].管理科学,2005,5,36-42.
魏玖长,赵定涛.危机信息的传播模式与影响因素研究[J].情报科学,2006,24(12)：1782-1785.
魏玖长,赵定涛.危机事件社会影响的评估与分析[J].中国软科学,2006,6：31-38.
魏玖长,赵定涛.危机状态下的角色划分及影响机制[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2006(1)：66-69.
吴国斌,钱刚毅,雷丽萍.突发公共事件扩散影响因素及其关系探析[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2008,2 1(4)：465-469.
吴穹,许开立.安全管理学[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2002：146-151.
吴曼青.公共安全产业需国家战略支撑[J].瞭望新闻周刊,2010年9月27日,第39期.
夏志强.公共危机治理多元主体的功能耦合机制探析[J].中国行政管理,2009(5)：122-125.
徐国栋,方伟华,史陪军等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6)：74-84.
薛澜,张强,钟开斌.危机管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2003：26-29.
薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期：应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理.2005(2)：102-107.
杨继君,许维胜,黄武军,吴启迪.基于多灾点非合作博弈的资源调度建模与仿真[J].计算机应用,2008(6),1620-1623.
杨永坚,田玉基.突发公共事件应急管理与应急系统的研究与应用—以2008年初我国南方雪灾为例[J].科技与管理,2008(4)：20-23.
杨宇,王子龙.社会公众应急能力建设途径研究[J].生产力研究,2009(16)：95-97.
姚杰,计雷,池宏.突发事件应急管理中的动态博弈分析[J].管理评论,2005.17(3)：48-52.
余菲菲.基于协同演化理论的战略创新路径研究[J].现代管理科学,2008(8)：20-22.
佘廉,吴国斌.突发事件演化与应急决策研究[J].交通企业管理,2005(12)：4-5.
张成福.公共危机管理：全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择[J].中国行政管理,2003(7)：6-11.
张成福.构建全面整合的公共危机管理模式[J].中国减灾,2005,(4)：35-37.
张海波,童星.应急能力评估的理论框架[J].中国行政管理,2009(4)：33-37.
张立荣.协同学语境下的公共危机管理模式创新探讨[J].中国行政管理,2007(10)：100-104.
张书维,周洁,王二平.群体相对剥夺前因及对集群行为的影响—基于汶川地震灾区民众调查的实证研究[J].公共管理学报,2009,6(4)：69-77.
中国灾害防御协会.市民公共安全应急指南[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2006.
钟琪,戚巍.基于态势管理的区域弹性评估模型研究[J].经济管理,2010(8)：32-37.
钟新.危机传播：信息流及噪音分析[M].北京：中国传媒大学出版社,2007：229-234.
朱光喜,王赵铭,万细梅,郑瑜怡.危机事件中的政府形象和政府危机公关[J].公共管理学报,2006,3(2)：40-48.
祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2006,19(5)：710-713.
朱正威,张蓉,周斌.中国区域公共安全评价及其相关因素分析[J].中国行政管理,2006(1)：39-42.
朱正威,肖群鹰.国际公共安全评价体系：理论与应用前景[J].公共管理学报,2006,3(1)：27-33.
邹逸江.城市应急联动系统的研究[J].灾害学,2007(12)：128-133.
Adam Z. Rose., A Framework for Analyzing the Total Economic Impacts of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters [J]. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management,2009, 6(1), Article 9.
Ahern, J., Galea, S., Resnick, H.S., Kilpatrick, D.G., Bucuvalas, M., Gold, J.,& Vlahov, D. Television images and psychological symptoms after the September 11 terrorist attacks [J]. Psychiatry,2002,65:289-300.
Anand, S., The income component of the human development index [J]. Human Development, 2000,1(1):83-106.
Apolone, G., P. Mosconi, C. La Vecchia.Post Traumatic Stress Disorder [J]. New England Journal of Medicine,2002 (346):1495.
Arrow, K.J. Essays in the Theory of Risk Bearing [M].Chicago:Markham Publishing Company, 1971.
Banker RD, Charnes A, et al., Some models for the estimation of technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis [J]. Management Science,1984,30:1078-1092.
Beck, U., The Terrorist Threat:World Risk Society Revisited [J].Theory, Culture &Society,2002, 19(4):39-55.
Berke, P. R. Natural-hazard reduction and sustainable development:A global assessment [J]. Journal of Planning Literature,1995(9):370-382.
Bernstein, K.T., Ahern, J., Tracy, M., Boscarino, J.A., Vlahov, D.,& Galea, S. Television watching and the risk of incident probable posttraumatic stress disorder:A prospective evaluation [J]. The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease,2007(195):41-47.
Brigit Maguire, Patrick Hagan. Disasters and Communities:Understanding Social Resilience [J]. Australian Journal of Emergency Management,2007,22, (2):16-20.
Bui, T., Cho, S., Sankaran, S., Sovereign, M., A framework for designing a global information network for multinational humanitarian assistance/disaster relief [J]. Information System Frontiers,2000, 1(4):427-442.
Burton I, White G, Kates R. Environment as Hazard [M]. New York:Oxford University Press. 1978.
Charnes A, Cooper WW, et al., Cone ratio data envelopment analysis and multi-objective programming [J]. International Journal of System Science,1989,20:1099-1118.
Charnes A, Cooper WW, Rhodes E., Measuring the efficiency of decision making units [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2:429-444.
Christian Conte, Rick A. Myer, Jeffrey A. Miller, Livia D'Andrea. Assessing Human Impact of Organizational Crises:Reliability and Validity of the Triage Assessment Scale for Organizations (TAS:O) [J]. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management,2007, 15(3):134-142.
Comfort, L.K., Dunn, M., Johnson, D., Skertich, R. and Zagorecki, A. (2004)'Coordination in complex systems:increasing efficiency in disaster mitigation and response', Int. J. Emergency Management, Vol.2, Nos.1-2, pp.62-80.
Coombs WT. Ongoing Crisis Communication:Planning, Managing and Responding [M].London: Sage Publication,1999,54-57.
Corey B. Bills, Nancy A. S. Levy, Vansh Sharma, et al. Mental Health of Workers and Volunteers Responding to Events of 9/11:Review of the Literature [J].Mount Sinai Journal of Medicine, 2008,7(5):115-127.
Critical Incident Analysis Group, Community Shielding in the National Capital Region:A Survey of Citizen Response to Potential Critical Incident [R].2005.
Cutter Susan L. et al., Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards [J]. Social Science Quarterly, 2003,84(2):242-61.
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky. Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk [J]. Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-292.
David R. Godschalk, Adam Rose, Elliott Mittler, Keith Porter, Carol Taylor West., Estimating the Value of Foresight:Aggregate Analysis of Natural Hazard Mitigation Benefits and Costs [J]. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,2009,52(6):739-756.
Dominick J R., The Dynamics of Mass Communication [B]. New York:McGraw-Hill,1996.
Douglas S. Faust, F. William Black. After the Storm:Katrina's Impact on Psychological Practice in New Orleans [J]. Professional Psychology:Research and Practice,2008,39(1):1-6.
Dow, Jame, Search Decisions with Limited Memory [J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1991(58):1-14.
Duggan F., Banwell L., Constructing a model of effective information dissemination in a crisis [J]. Information Research,2004,5(3):178-184.
Emmanuelle Godeau, Celine Vignes, Felix Navarro, et al. Effects of a Large-Scale Industrial Disaster on Rates of Symptoms Consistent With Posttraumatic Stress Disorders Among Schoolchildren in Toulouse [J]. Arch Pediatric Adolescent Med,2005,159:579-584.
Etsushi Tanifuji. Crisis awareness and organizational response capabilities in present Japanese local governments:crisis awareness survey findings [J]. Journal of contingencies and crisis management,2000,8:30-41.
Fran H. Norris,Susan P. Stevens, etc.Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness[J]. American Journal of Community Psychology,2008 (41):127-150.
Frank Vanclay. Principles for social impact assessment:A critical comparison between the international and US documents [J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2006 (26):3-14.
Friesma, H. P., Caporaso, J., Goldstein, G., Linberry, R., McCleary, R. Aftermath:communities after natural disasters [M]. Sage:Beverly Hills Calif.1979.
Folke C. Resilience:The Emergence of a Perspective for Social-Ecological Systems Analyses [J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:253-267.
Glik, D.C., Risk communication for public health emergencies [J]. The Annual Review of Public Health,2007,28:33-54.
Garnett, J. L., Kouzmin, A. Communicating throughout Katrina:Competing and complementary conceptual lenses on crisis communication [J]. Public Administration Review,2007, 67(s1):171-188.
Greg Bankoff. The Tale of the Three Pigs:Taking another Look at Vulnerability in the Light of the Indian Ocean Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina[J/OL].http://understandingkatrina. ssrc.org/Bankoff.2006.
Hale, J.E., Dulek, R.E.,& Hale, D.P. Crisis response communication challenges [J]. Journal of Business Communication,2005,42(2),112-134.
Hallie Eakin, Amy Lynd Luers., Assessing the Vulnerability of Social-Environmental Systems [J]. Annual Review of Environment and Resources,2006(31):365-94.
Helsloot, I., Ruitenberg, A. Citizen Response to disaster:A survey of literature and some practical implications [J]. Journal of Contingences and Crisis Management,2004,12(3):98-112.
Henk A. Becker., Social impact assessment [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001(128)311-321.
Hirshleifer, David, and Ivo Welch, "A Rational Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Inertia, Impulsiveness, and Amnesia," June 2001, working paper.
Ilan Noy, The macroeconomic consequences of disasters [J], Journal of Development Economics, 2009(88):221-231.
James C. Cramer, Thomas Dietz. Social Impact Assessment of Regional Plans:a review of methods and issues and a recommended process [J]. Policy Sciences,1980 (12):61-82.
Jahan, S. Evolution of the human development index [A]. S. Fukuda-Parr and A. K. Shiva Kumar, Readings in human development[C].Oxford University Press, Oxford:2003,128-139.
Jiuchang Wei, Dingtao Zhao, Feng Yang, Shaofu Du, Dora Marinova.,Timing Crisis Information Release via Television [J]. Disasters (The Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management),2010,34(4):1013-1030.
Joost M.E. Pennings, Grossman. Responding to crises and disasters:the role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions [J].Disasters,2008,32(3):434-448.
Joseph T. F. Lau, Xiaonan Yu, Jianxin Zhang, et al. Psychological Distress among Adolescents in Chengdu, Sichuan at 1 Month after the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake[J]. Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine,2010,87(3):504-523.
Keselman, A., Slaughter, L., Vimla, L.P. Toward a framework for understanding lay public's comprehension of disaster and bioterrorism information [J]. Journal of Biomedical Information,2005,38:331-344.
Krackhardt David. The strength of strong ties:The importance of philos in organizations [A]. In:Nohria,Nitin,Robert G. Eccles. Networks and Organizations:Structure, Form, and Action[M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1992:216-239.
Laurence J. Kirmayer, Hanna Kienzler, Abdel Hamid Afana, Duncan Pedersen., Trauma and Disasters in Social and Cultural Context, Working paper,2009.
Lindell, M.K., Perry, R.W. Household adjustment to earthquake hazard:A review of Research [J]. Environment and Behavior,2000,32(4):461-501.
Lindell, M.K., Hwang S.N.. Households' perceived personal risk and responses in a multi-hazard environment [J]. Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
Lowrey, W., Evants, W., Gower, K.K., Robinson, J.A., Ginteret, P.M., McCormick, L.C., Abdolrasulnia, M. Effective media communication of disasters:Pressing problems and recommendations [J]. BMC Public Health,2007,7, Doi:10.1186/1471-2458-7-97.
Mathew, D. Information technology and public health management of disasters:A model for south Asian countries [J]. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine,2005,20(1):54-60.
May,P., Organizational and societal consequences for performance-based earthquake engineering[R].Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), College of Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley,2001.
Mileti, D.S., Fitzpatrick, C., Farhar, B.C., Fostering public preparations for natural hazards [J]. Environment,1992,34(3):16-39.
Michael K. Lindell, Carla S. Prater., Assessing Community Impacts of Natural Disasters [J]. Natural Hazards Review,2003, (11):176-186.
Mullainathan S. A memory based model of bounded rationality [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,17(2):735-774.
National Research Council, Improving Risk Communication [M].Washington:National Academy Press,1989.
Noji, E.K.The public health consequences of disasters [M].Oxford University Press, New York: 1997,3-20.
O'Keefe P K, Westgate and B Wisner., Taking the naturalness out of natural disasters [J], Nature, 1976(260):566-567.
Pantin, H.M., Schwartz, S.J., Prado, G., Feaster, D.J., Szapocznik, J. Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in hispanic immigrants after the September 11th attacks:Severity and relationship to previous traumatic exposure[J]. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences,2003, 25(1):56-72.
Pavica, J. Mass media usage during a natural disaster:LSU college students and Hurricane Katrina[EB/OL].http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-04032006-220749/unrestricted/Juric_th esis.pdf,2006.
Peacock, W.G., Brody, S.D., Highfield, W., Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida's single family homeowners [J],Landscape and Urban Planning,2005(73):120-135.
Peltz, M.R., Galit, C.A., Ventura-Gabay, M., Bar-Dayan, C.Y. Differences in sources of information used by the population between the affected area and the general population during the first phase of a Bird Flu Outbreak[J]. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine,2008, 23(1):57-59.
Pennings, J.M., Grossman, D.B. Responding to crises and disasters:The role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions [J]. Disasters,2008,32(3):434-448.
Perez-Lugo, M. Media uses in disaster situations:A new focus on the impact phase [J]. Sociological Inquiry,2004,74(2):210-225.
Perry, R.W., Lindell, M. K. Citizen knowledge of volcano threats at Mt. St. Helens [J]. Environmental Professional,1990,12:45-51.
Perry, R.W., Mushkatel, A.H. Minority Citizen in Disasters [B].University of Georgia Press, Atlanta,2008.
Perry, S.D., Tsunami warning dissemination in Mauritius [J]. Journal of Applied Communication Research,2007,35(4):399-417.
Pratt, J.W., Risk aversion in the small and in the large [J]. Econometrica,1964 (32):122-36.
Quarantelli, E.L., Ten criteria for evaluating the management of community disasters [J]. Disasters,1997,21 (1):39-56.
Rasinski, K. A., Berktold, J., Smith, T.,& Albertson, B.L. America recovers:A follow-up to a national study of public response to the September 11 terrorist attacks [EB/OL]. http://norc.uchicago.edu/projects/reaction/pubresp2.pdf,2002.
Ray, M., P. Malhi.Reactions of Indian Adolescents to the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks [J]. The Indian Journal of Pediatrics,2005,72(3):217-21.
Reynolds, B., Galdo, J.H., Sokler, L. Crisis and emergency risk communication [EB/OL]. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cdc/cercbook.pdf,2002.
Samarajiva, R. Mobilizing information and communications technologies for effective disaster warning:Lessons from the 2004 tsunami [J]. New Media & Society,2005,7(6):731-747.
Sarafidis, Y. What have you done for me lately? Release of information and strategic manipulation of memories [J], The Economic Journal,2007,117(3):307-326.
Schuster, M.A., et al. A national survey of stress reactions after the September 11,2001, terrorism attacks [J]. The New England Journal of Medicine,2001,34:1507-1512.
Siegel, J. M., Bourque, L. B., Shoaf, K. I. Victimization after a natural disaster:Social disorganization or community cohesion [J]. International Journal of Mass Emergencies Disasters,1999,17:265-294.
Speckhard, A., Inoculating Resilience to Terrorism:Acute and Posttraumatic Stress Responses in U.S. Military, Foreign and Civilian Services Serving Overseas after September 11th [J]. Traumatology,2002,8(2):105-22.
Speckhard, A. Acute Stress Disorder in Diplomats, Military and Civilian Americans Living Abroad Following the September 11th Terrorist Attacks' on America [J]. Professional Psychology:Research & Practice,2003,34(2):151-8.
Sorenson, J.H. Hazard warning systems:Review of 20 years of progress [J]. Natural Hazards Review,2000,1:119-25.
Sue Tapsell, Simon McCarthy, Hazel Faulkner, Meghan Alexander. Social vulnerability to natural hazards [R]. Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC), Middlesex University,2010.
Susan Cutter. The Geography of Social Vulnerability:Race, Class, and Catastrophe [EB/OL]. http://understandingkatrina.ssrc.org/Cutter.2006.
The US Board on Natural Disasters (BOND). Mitigation emerges as major strategy for reducing losses caused by natural disasters [J]. Science,1999,284(6):1943-1947.
The US Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems (WGNDIS)., Effective Disaster Warnings [EB/OL].http://www.sdr.gov/ndis_rev_oct27.pdf,2000.
Timmerman P. Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society:A Review of Models and Possible Climatic Applications [M]. Toronto, Canada:Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto,1981.
Tierney, K.J., Lindell, M.K., Perry, R.W. Facing the Unexpected:Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States [B]. Joseph Henry Press, Washington,2001.
Tierney, K.J. Disaster Preparedness and Response:Research Findings and Guidance from the Social Science Literature[EB/OL].,http://dspace.udel.edu:8080/dspace/handle/19716/579.
Tony Jaques. Issue management and crisis management:An integrated, non-linear, relational construct [J]. Public Relations Review,2007(33):147-157.
Tong Hui-jie. Theoretical model of stress response to critical incidents [J].Chinese Journal of Clinical Rehabilitation,2006,10(2):164-166.
Tversky A., Kahneman D., Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and biases [J].Scinece, 1974(185):1124-1131.
Tversky A, Kahneman D., The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice [J]. Science, 1981(211):453-457.
Vandenbosh, B., Higgings, C. Executive support systems and executive preferences:A comparison of information selection theories [J]. Information System Journal,1995, 5:105-118.
Vasterman, P., Yzermans, C.J.,& Dirkzwager, A.J.E. The role of the media and media hypes in the aftermath of disasters [J]. Epidemiologic Reviews,2005,27:107-114.
Walker I, Pettigrew T F. Relative Deprivation Theory:An Overview and Conceptual Critique [J]. British Journal of Social Psychology,1984,23:301-310.
Wei Y-M, Fan Y, et al.,The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method [J].Environment Impact Assess Review,2004,24:427-439.
William R. Freudenburg., Social Impact Assessment [J]. Annual Review of Sociological, 1986(12):451-78.
Yaacov Trope. Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory [J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1978(36):93-106.
Yang Zhang, Michael K. Lindell, Carla S. Prater., Vulnerability of community businesses to environmental disasters [J]. Disasters,2009,33(1):38-57.
Y. Neria, A. Nandi, S. Galea. Post-traumatic stress disorder following disasters:a systematic review [J]. Psychological Medicine,2008,38:467-480.
北京市突发公共事件管理委员会.首都市民防灾应急手册[M].北京：北京出版社,2006.
曹杰,杨晓光,汪寿阳.突发公共事件应急管理研究中的重要科学问题[J].公共管理学报,2007,4(2)：84-93.
陈安,赵燕.我国应急管理的进展与趋势[J].安全,2007(3)：1-4.
程美东.透视当代中国重大突发事件(1949—2005)[M].北京：中共党史出版社,2008.
池宏,祁明亮,计雷等.城市突发公共事件应急管理体系研究[J].中国公共安全(学术版),2005(3)：21-32.
高彦生.韩国解禁美国牛肉引发政治危机对我国的启示[J].中国畜牧兽医,2008,35(8)：5-8.
韩智勇,翁文国,张维.重大研究计划“非常规突发事件应急管理研究”的科学背景、目标与组织管理[J].中国科学基金,2009(4)：215-220.
联合国开发计划署.2010年人类发展报告：国家真正的财富-人类发展进程[EB/OL]. http://hdr.undp.org/en/media/HDR_2010_CN_Complete_rev.pdf.2010.
范维澄.突发公共事件应急信息系统总体方案构思[J].信息化建设,2005,9,11-14.
黄进,赵宇亮等.汶川地震后四川大学学生应急能力及心理状况调查[J].中国循证医学杂志,2008,8(11)：931-934.
惠志斌,何小菁,吴建华.试论国家综合性危机信息管理系统的建立[J].情报杂志,2004,8,56-58.
侯琳,杨帆等.重大交通突发事件中的态势评估研究[J].交通信息与安全,2009,27(149)：67-73.
刘拓,傅毓维,朱发根.公共危机伪信息混沌论[J].情报理论与实践,2008,6,825-828.
李志宏,何济乐,吴鹏飞.突发性公共危机信息传播模式的时段性特征及管理对策[J].图书情报工作,2007,51(10)：88-91.
吕浩,王超.重大突发事件的扩散机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(信息与管理工程版),2006(09)：7-10.
毛德华,何梓霖,贺新光等.洪灾风险分析的国内外研究现状与展望(Ⅰ)——洪水为害风险分析研究现状[J].自然灾害学报,2009,18(1)：139-149.
牛文元.社会物理学与中国社会稳定预警系统.中国科学院院刊[J].2001(1)：15-20.
牛文元.社会物理学：学科意义与应用价值[J].科学论坛,2001,54(3)：32-35.
牛文元.基于社会物理学的社会和谐方程[J].中国科学院院刊,2008,23(4)：343-347.
彭国文,何剑蜂,林锦炎,等.广东省传染性非典型肺炎流行病学特征初步调查[J].中华流行病学杂志,2003,24(5)：350-352.
秦启文.突发事件的管理与应对[M].北京：新华出版社,2004.
邵培仁.传播学[M].北京：高等教育出版社,2001.
邵怡菲,张梦新.论突发性公共事件中的媒介恐慌[J].当代传播,2009(2)：45-46.
沈露莹,葛寅,殷文杰,黄玥,詹歆晔.上海转变经济发展方式评价指标体系研究[J].科学发展,2010,6：11-35.
孙多勇.突发事件与行为决策[M].北京：社会科学文献出版社.2007.
唐钧.建构全面整合的政府公共危机信息管理系统[J].信息化建设,2004,10,12-15.
王合兴,唐任武.美国应急协调体系特征及社会文化认同状况分析[J].城市与减灾,2006,8(2)：86-88.
王静爱,史培军,朱骊等.中国自然灾害数据库的建立与应用[J].北京师范大学学报(自然科学版),1995,31(1)：121-126.
王乐夫,马骏等.公共部门危机管理体制：以非典型肺炎事件为例[J].中国行政管理.2003,(7)：23-27.
王强.试论构建公共应急管理的应对网络体系[J].广东行政学院学报,2005,17(6)：11-14.
王伟,靖继鹏.基于CAS的危机信息管理体系的构建.情报学报,2008,25(7)：446-450.
王旭坤.我国现行应急立法体系和预案制度评析[J].中国减灾,2008(10)：27-29.
魏玖长,赵定涛.基于元搜索引擎的危机信息监控系统研究与实现[J].管理科学,2005,5,36-42.
魏玖长,赵定涛.危机信息的传播模式与影响因素研究[J].情报科学,2006,24(12)：1782-1785.
魏玖长,赵定涛.危机事件社会影响的评估与分析[J].中国软科学,2006,6：31-38.
魏玖长,赵定涛.危机状态下的角色划分及影响机制[J].华中科技大学学报(社会科学版),2006(1)：66-69.
吴国斌,钱刚毅,雷丽萍.突发公共事件扩散影响因素及其关系探析[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2008,2 1(4)：465-469.
吴穹,许开立.安全管理学[M].北京：煤炭工业出版社,2002：146-151.
吴曼青.公共安全产业需国家战略支撑[J].瞭望新闻周刊,2010年9月27日,第39期.
夏志强.公共危机治理多元主体的功能耦合机制探析[J].中国行政管理,2009(5)：122-125.
徐国栋,方伟华,史陪军等.汶川地震损失快速评估[J].地震工程与工程振动,2008,28(6)：74-84.
薛澜,张强,钟开斌.危机管理[M].北京：清华大学出版社.2003：26-29.
薛澜,钟开斌.突发公共事件分类、分级与分期：应急体制的管理基础[J].中国行政管理.2005(2)：102-107.
杨继君,许维胜,黄武军,吴启迪.基于多灾点非合作博弈的资源调度建模与仿真[J].计算机应用,2008(6),1620-1623.
杨永坚,田玉基.突发公共事件应急管理与应急系统的研究与应用—以2008年初我国南方雪灾为例[J].科技与管理,2008(4)：20-23.
杨宇,王子龙.社会公众应急能力建设途径研究[J].生产力研究,2009(16)：95-97.
姚杰,计雷,池宏.突发事件应急管理中的动态博弈分析[J].管理评论,2005.17(3)：48-52.
余菲菲.基于协同演化理论的战略创新路径研究[J].现代管理科学,2008(8)：20-22.
佘廉,吴国斌.突发事件演化与应急决策研究[J].交通企业管理,2005(12)：4-5.
张成福.公共危机管理：全面整合的模式与中国的战略选择[J].中国行政管理,2003(7)：6-11.
张成福.构建全面整合的公共危机管理模式[J].中国减灾,2005,(4)：35-37.
张海波,童星.应急能力评估的理论框架[J].中国行政管理,2009(4)：33-37.
张立荣.协同学语境下的公共危机管理模式创新探讨[J].中国行政管理,2007(10)：100-104.
张书维,周洁,王二平.群体相对剥夺前因及对集群行为的影响—基于汶川地震灾区民众调查的实证研究[J].公共管理学报,2009,6(4)：69-77.
中国灾害防御协会.市民公共安全应急指南[M].北京：北京大学出版社,2006.
钟琪,戚巍.基于态势管理的区域弹性评估模型研究[J].经济管理,2010(8)：32-37.
钟新.危机传播：信息流及噪音分析[M].北京：中国传媒大学出版社,2007：229-234.
朱光喜,王赵铭,万细梅,郑瑜怡.危机事件中的政府形象和政府危机公关[J].公共管理学报,2006,3(2)：40-48.
祝江斌,王超,冯斌.城市重大突发事件扩散的微观机理研究[J].武汉理工大学学报(社会科学版),2006,19(5)：710-713.
朱正威,张蓉,周斌.中国区域公共安全评价及其相关因素分析[J].中国行政管理,2006(1)：39-42.
朱正威,肖群鹰.国际公共安全评价体系：理论与应用前景[J].公共管理学报,2006,3(1)：27-33.
邹逸江.城市应急联动系统的研究[J].灾害学,2007(12)：128-133.
Adam Z. Rose., A Framework for Analyzing the Total Economic Impacts of Terrorist Attacks and Natural Disasters [J]. Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management,2009, 6(1), Article 9.
Ahern, J., Galea, S., Resnick, H.S., Kilpatrick, D.G., Bucuvalas, M., Gold, J.,& Vlahov, D. Television images and psychological symptoms after the September 11 terrorist attacks [J]. Psychiatry,2002,65:289-300.
Anand, S., The income component of the human development index [J]. Human Development, 2000,1(1):83-106.
Apolone, G., P. Mosconi, C. La Vecchia.Post Traumatic Stress Disorder [J]. New England Journal of Medicine,2002 (346):1495.
Arrow, K.J. Essays in the Theory of Risk Bearing [M].Chicago:Markham Publishing Company, 1971.
Banker RD, Charnes A, et al., Some models for the estimation of technical and scale inefficiencies in data envelopment analysis [J]. Management Science,1984,30:1078-1092.
Beck, U., The Terrorist Threat:World Risk Society Revisited [J].Theory, Culture &Society,2002, 19(4):39-55.
Berke, P. R. Natural-hazard reduction and sustainable development:A global assessment [J]. Journal of Planning Literature,1995(9):370-382.
Bernstein, K.T., Ahern, J., Tracy, M., Boscarino, J.A., Vlahov, D.,& Galea, S. Television watching and the risk of incident probable posttraumatic stress disorder:A prospective evaluation [J]. The Journal of Nervous and Mental Disease,2007(195):41-47.
Brigit Maguire, Patrick Hagan. Disasters and Communities:Understanding Social Resilience [J]. Australian Journal of Emergency Management,2007,22, (2):16-20.
Bui, T., Cho, S., Sankaran, S., Sovereign, M., A framework for designing a global information network for multinational humanitarian assistance/disaster relief [J]. Information System Frontiers,2000, 1(4):427-442.
Burton I, White G, Kates R. Environment as Hazard [M]. New York:Oxford University Press. 1978.
Charnes A, Cooper WW, et al., Cone ratio data envelopment analysis and multi-objective programming [J]. International Journal of System Science,1989,20:1099-1118.
Charnes A, Cooper WW, Rhodes E., Measuring the efficiency of decision making units [J]. European Journal of Operational Research,1978,2:429-444.
Christian Conte, Rick A. Myer, Jeffrey A. Miller, Livia D'Andrea. Assessing Human Impact of Organizational Crises:Reliability and Validity of the Triage Assessment Scale for Organizations (TAS:O) [J]. Journal of Contingencies and Crisis Management,2007, 15(3):134-142.
Comfort, L.K., Dunn, M., Johnson, D., Skertich, R. and Zagorecki, A. (2004)'Coordination in complex systems:increasing efficiency in disaster mitigation and response', Int. J. Emergency Management, Vol.2, Nos.1-2, pp.62-80.
Coombs WT. Ongoing Crisis Communication:Planning, Managing and Responding [M].London: Sage Publication,1999,54-57.
Corey B. Bills, Nancy A. S. Levy, Vansh Sharma, et al. Mental Health of Workers and Volunteers Responding to Events of 9/11:Review of the Literature [J].Mount Sinai Journal of Medicine, 2008,7(5):115-127.
Critical Incident Analysis Group, Community Shielding in the National Capital Region:A Survey of Citizen Response to Potential Critical Incident [R].2005.
Cutter Susan L. et al., Social Vulnerability to Environmental Hazards [J]. Social Science Quarterly, 2003,84(2):242-61.
Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky. Prospect Theory:An Analysis of Decision under Risk [J]. Econometrica,1979,47(2):263-292.
David R. Godschalk, Adam Rose, Elliott Mittler, Keith Porter, Carol Taylor West., Estimating the Value of Foresight:Aggregate Analysis of Natural Hazard Mitigation Benefits and Costs [J]. Journal of Environmental Planning and Management,2009,52(6):739-756.
Dominick J R., The Dynamics of Mass Communication [B]. New York:McGraw-Hill,1996.
Douglas S. Faust, F. William Black. After the Storm:Katrina's Impact on Psychological Practice in New Orleans [J]. Professional Psychology:Research and Practice,2008,39(1):1-6.
Dow, Jame, Search Decisions with Limited Memory [J]. Review of Economic Studies, 1991(58):1-14.
Duggan F., Banwell L., Constructing a model of effective information dissemination in a crisis [J]. Information Research,2004,5(3):178-184.
Emmanuelle Godeau, Celine Vignes, Felix Navarro, et al. Effects of a Large-Scale Industrial Disaster on Rates of Symptoms Consistent With Posttraumatic Stress Disorders Among Schoolchildren in Toulouse [J]. Arch Pediatric Adolescent Med,2005,159:579-584.
Etsushi Tanifuji. Crisis awareness and organizational response capabilities in present Japanese local governments:crisis awareness survey findings [J]. Journal of contingencies and crisis management,2000,8:30-41.
Fran H. Norris,Susan P. Stevens, etc.Community Resilience as a Metaphor, Theory, Set of Capacities, and Strategy for Disaster Readiness[J]. American Journal of Community Psychology,2008 (41):127-150.
Frank Vanclay. Principles for social impact assessment:A critical comparison between the international and US documents [J]. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2006 (26):3-14.
Friesma, H. P., Caporaso, J., Goldstein, G., Linberry, R., McCleary, R. Aftermath:communities after natural disasters [M]. Sage:Beverly Hills Calif.1979.
Folke C. Resilience:The Emergence of a Perspective for Social-Ecological Systems Analyses [J]. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:253-267.
Glik, D.C., Risk communication for public health emergencies [J]. The Annual Review of Public Health,2007,28:33-54.
Garnett, J. L., Kouzmin, A. Communicating throughout Katrina:Competing and complementary conceptual lenses on crisis communication [J]. Public Administration Review,2007, 67(s1):171-188.
Greg Bankoff. The Tale of the Three Pigs:Taking another Look at Vulnerability in the Light of the Indian Ocean Tsunami and Hurricane Katrina[J/OL].http://understandingkatrina. ssrc.org/Bankoff.2006.
Hale, J.E., Dulek, R.E.,& Hale, D.P. Crisis response communication challenges [J]. Journal of Business Communication,2005,42(2),112-134.
Hallie Eakin, Amy Lynd Luers., Assessing the Vulnerability of Social-Environmental Systems [J]. Annual Review of Environment and Resources,2006(31):365-94.
Helsloot, I., Ruitenberg, A. Citizen Response to disaster:A survey of literature and some practical implications [J]. Journal of Contingences and Crisis Management,2004,12(3):98-112.
Henk A. Becker., Social impact assessment [J]. European Journal of Operational Research, 2001(128)311-321.
Hirshleifer, David, and Ivo Welch, "A Rational Economic Approach to the Psychology of Change: Inertia, Impulsiveness, and Amnesia," June 2001, working paper.
Ilan Noy, The macroeconomic consequences of disasters [J], Journal of Development Economics, 2009(88):221-231.
James C. Cramer, Thomas Dietz. Social Impact Assessment of Regional Plans:a review of methods and issues and a recommended process [J]. Policy Sciences,1980 (12):61-82.
Jahan, S. Evolution of the human development index [A]. S. Fukuda-Parr and A. K. Shiva Kumar, Readings in human development[C].Oxford University Press, Oxford:2003,128-139.
Jiuchang Wei, Dingtao Zhao, Feng Yang, Shaofu Du, Dora Marinova.,Timing Crisis Information Release via Television [J]. Disasters (The Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management),2010,34(4):1013-1030.
Joost M.E. Pennings, Grossman. Responding to crises and disasters:the role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions [J].Disasters,2008,32(3):434-448.
Joseph T. F. Lau, Xiaonan Yu, Jianxin Zhang, et al. Psychological Distress among Adolescents in Chengdu, Sichuan at 1 Month after the 2008 Sichuan Earthquake[J]. Journal of Urban Health: Bulletin of the New York Academy of Medicine,2010,87(3):504-523.
Keselman, A., Slaughter, L., Vimla, L.P. Toward a framework for understanding lay public's comprehension of disaster and bioterrorism information [J]. Journal of Biomedical Information,2005,38:331-344.
Krackhardt David. The strength of strong ties:The importance of philos in organizations [A]. In:Nohria,Nitin,Robert G. Eccles. Networks and Organizations:Structure, Form, and Action[M].Boston:Harvard Business School Press,1992:216-239.
Laurence J. Kirmayer, Hanna Kienzler, Abdel Hamid Afana, Duncan Pedersen., Trauma and Disasters in Social and Cultural Context, Working paper,2009.
Lindell, M.K., Perry, R.W. Household adjustment to earthquake hazard:A review of Research [J]. Environment and Behavior,2000,32(4):461-501.
Lindell, M.K., Hwang S.N.. Households' perceived personal risk and responses in a multi-hazard environment [J]. Risk Analysis,2008,28(2):539-556.
Lowrey, W., Evants, W., Gower, K.K., Robinson, J.A., Ginteret, P.M., McCormick, L.C., Abdolrasulnia, M. Effective media communication of disasters:Pressing problems and recommendations [J]. BMC Public Health,2007,7, Doi:10.1186/1471-2458-7-97.
Mathew, D. Information technology and public health management of disasters:A model for south Asian countries [J]. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine,2005,20(1):54-60.
May,P., Organizational and societal consequences for performance-based earthquake engineering[R].Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center (PEER), College of Engineering, Univ. of California-Berkeley,2001.
Mileti, D.S., Fitzpatrick, C., Farhar, B.C., Fostering public preparations for natural hazards [J]. Environment,1992,34(3):16-39.
Michael K. Lindell, Carla S. Prater., Assessing Community Impacts of Natural Disasters [J]. Natural Hazards Review,2003, (11):176-186.
Mullainathan S. A memory based model of bounded rationality [J]. Quarterly Journal of Economics,2002,17(2):735-774.
National Research Council, Improving Risk Communication [M].Washington:National Academy Press,1989.
Noji, E.K.The public health consequences of disasters [M].Oxford University Press, New York: 1997,3-20.
O'Keefe P K, Westgate and B Wisner., Taking the naturalness out of natural disasters [J], Nature, 1976(260):566-567.
Pantin, H.M., Schwartz, S.J., Prado, G., Feaster, D.J., Szapocznik, J. Posttraumatic stress disorder symptoms in hispanic immigrants after the September 11th attacks:Severity and relationship to previous traumatic exposure[J]. Hispanic Journal of Behavioral Sciences,2003, 25(1):56-72.
Pavica, J. Mass media usage during a natural disaster:LSU college students and Hurricane Katrina[EB/OL].http://etd.lsu.edu/docs/available/etd-04032006-220749/unrestricted/Juric_th esis.pdf,2006.
Peacock, W.G., Brody, S.D., Highfield, W., Hurricane risk perceptions among Florida's single family homeowners [J],Landscape and Urban Planning,2005(73):120-135.
Peltz, M.R., Galit, C.A., Ventura-Gabay, M., Bar-Dayan, C.Y. Differences in sources of information used by the population between the affected area and the general population during the first phase of a Bird Flu Outbreak[J]. Prehospital and Disaster Medicine,2008, 23(1):57-59.
Pennings, J.M., Grossman, D.B. Responding to crises and disasters:The role of risk attitudes and risk perceptions [J]. Disasters,2008,32(3):434-448.
Perez-Lugo, M. Media uses in disaster situations:A new focus on the impact phase [J]. Sociological Inquiry,2004,74(2):210-225.
Perry, R.W., Lindell, M. K. Citizen knowledge of volcano threats at Mt. St. Helens [J]. Environmental Professional,1990,12:45-51.
Perry, R.W., Mushkatel, A.H. Minority Citizen in Disasters [B].University of Georgia Press, Atlanta,2008.
Perry, S.D., Tsunami warning dissemination in Mauritius [J]. Journal of Applied Communication Research,2007,35(4):399-417.
Pratt, J.W., Risk aversion in the small and in the large [J]. Econometrica,1964 (32):122-36.
Quarantelli, E.L., Ten criteria for evaluating the management of community disasters [J]. Disasters,1997,21 (1):39-56.
Rasinski, K. A., Berktold, J., Smith, T.,& Albertson, B.L. America recovers:A follow-up to a national study of public response to the September 11 terrorist attacks [EB/OL]. http://norc.uchicago.edu/projects/reaction/pubresp2.pdf,2002.
Ray, M., P. Malhi.Reactions of Indian Adolescents to the 9/11 Terrorist Attacks [J]. The Indian Journal of Pediatrics,2005,72(3):217-21.
Reynolds, B., Galdo, J.H., Sokler, L. Crisis and emergency risk communication [EB/OL]. http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/cdc/cercbook.pdf,2002.
Samarajiva, R. Mobilizing information and communications technologies for effective disaster warning:Lessons from the 2004 tsunami [J]. New Media & Society,2005,7(6):731-747.
Sarafidis, Y. What have you done for me lately? Release of information and strategic manipulation of memories [J], The Economic Journal,2007,117(3):307-326.
Schuster, M.A., et al. A national survey of stress reactions after the September 11,2001, terrorism attacks [J]. The New England Journal of Medicine,2001,34:1507-1512.
Siegel, J. M., Bourque, L. B., Shoaf, K. I. Victimization after a natural disaster:Social disorganization or community cohesion [J]. International Journal of Mass Emergencies Disasters,1999,17:265-294.
Speckhard, A., Inoculating Resilience to Terrorism:Acute and Posttraumatic Stress Responses in U.S. Military, Foreign and Civilian Services Serving Overseas after September 11th [J]. Traumatology,2002,8(2):105-22.
Speckhard, A. Acute Stress Disorder in Diplomats, Military and Civilian Americans Living Abroad Following the September 11th Terrorist Attacks' on America [J]. Professional Psychology:Research & Practice,2003,34(2):151-8.
Sorenson, J.H. Hazard warning systems:Review of 20 years of progress [J]. Natural Hazards Review,2000,1:119-25.
Sue Tapsell, Simon McCarthy, Hazel Faulkner, Meghan Alexander. Social vulnerability to natural hazards [R]. Flood Hazard Research Centre (FHRC), Middlesex University,2010.
Susan Cutter. The Geography of Social Vulnerability:Race, Class, and Catastrophe [EB/OL]. http://understandingkatrina.ssrc.org/Cutter.2006.
The US Board on Natural Disasters (BOND). Mitigation emerges as major strategy for reducing losses caused by natural disasters [J]. Science,1999,284(6):1943-1947.
The US Working Group on Natural Disaster Information Systems (WGNDIS)., Effective Disaster Warnings [EB/OL].http://www.sdr.gov/ndis_rev_oct27.pdf,2000.
Timmerman P. Vulnerability, Resilience and the Collapse of Society:A Review of Models and Possible Climatic Applications [M]. Toronto, Canada:Institute for Environmental Studies, University of Toronto,1981.
Tierney, K.J., Lindell, M.K., Perry, R.W. Facing the Unexpected:Disaster Preparedness and Response in the United States [B]. Joseph Henry Press, Washington,2001.
Tierney, K.J. Disaster Preparedness and Response:Research Findings and Guidance from the Social Science Literature[EB/OL].,http://dspace.udel.edu:8080/dspace/handle/19716/579.
Tony Jaques. Issue management and crisis management:An integrated, non-linear, relational construct [J]. Public Relations Review,2007(33):147-157.
Tong Hui-jie. Theoretical model of stress response to critical incidents [J].Chinese Journal of Clinical Rehabilitation,2006,10(2):164-166.
Tversky A., Kahneman D., Judgment under uncertainty:Heuristics and biases [J].Scinece, 1974(185):1124-1131.
Tversky A, Kahneman D., The framing of decisions and the psychology of choice [J]. Science, 1981(211):453-457.
Vandenbosh, B., Higgings, C. Executive support systems and executive preferences:A comparison of information selection theories [J]. Information System Journal,1995, 5:105-118.
Vasterman, P., Yzermans, C.J.,& Dirkzwager, A.J.E. The role of the media and media hypes in the aftermath of disasters [J]. Epidemiologic Reviews,2005,27:107-114.
Walker I, Pettigrew T F. Relative Deprivation Theory:An Overview and Conceptual Critique [J]. British Journal of Social Psychology,1984,23:301-310.
Wei Y-M, Fan Y, et al.,The assessment of vulnerability to natural disasters in China by using the DEA method [J].Environment Impact Assess Review,2004,24:427-439.
William R. Freudenburg., Social Impact Assessment [J]. Annual Review of Sociological, 1986(12):451-78.
Yaacov Trope. Inferences of personal characteristics on the basis of information retrieved from one's memory [J]. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology,1978(36):93-106.
Yang Zhang, Michael K. Lindell, Carla S. Prater., Vulnerability of community businesses to environmental disasters [J]. Disasters,2009,33(1):38-57.
Y. Neria, A. Nandi, S. Galea. Post-traumatic stress disorder following disasters:a systematic review [J]. Psychological Medicine,2008,38:467-480.