城镇化背景下乡村景观格局演变与布局模式
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摘要
本文以景观生态学的“格局-过程-功能”为中心理论支撑,对乡村景观格局演变和布局模式进行系统研究。综合应用生命周期理论和生态位理论以及CA-Markov模型、多元线性回归方法和3S技术,分别探讨了乡村景观格局演变的模拟预测方法、乡村景观的稳定性分析以及乡村景观功能的定位与优化配置。基于上述研究,提出了以景观格局优化配置和调整为核心的乡村景观优化布局模式。论文以洞庭湖区金井镇为例,对该区域乡村景观格局演变进行模拟预测、景观稳定性分析以及景观功能定位与优化配置,完成了研究区域乡村景观格局优化布局方案。论文获得如下主要结论：
(1)应用生命周期理论分析乡村景观格局的演变周期,并根据生长曲线设置演变周期曲线,与CA-Markov模型耦合建立了生命周期修正模型。并对研究区域进行实证研究：以2009年为基期年对生命周期修正模型进行精度验证,结果表明该模型更符合乡村景观格局的演变规律；然后预测了研究区域乡村景观格局达到稳定状态的时间以及2020年的景观格局,其结果表明：在城镇化的影响下聚落的面积将继续增长,茶园、农田和池塘的面积将有所下降,林地的面积略有增长。
(2)通过多元线性回归方法研究各种乡村景观类型在不同影响因子作用下不变、新增和灭失的概率,进而对乡村景观的稳定性进行评价,划分了稳定、较稳定、较不稳定和不稳定4个等级。通过对研究区域的实证研究可以看出：不变概率的空间分布规律与新增概率的空间分布规律基本一致、与灭失概率的空间分布规律基本互逆,说明景观的变化概率可以反映出乡村景观的稳定性。
(3)根据生态位理论评价乡村景观的农业生产功能、生态涵养功能和社会经济功能的生态位适宜度,进而对乡村的景观功能进行定位：生态保护、生态旅游、生态农业、农业生产、农业经济和经济主导。在粮食需求和人均建设用地指标的基础上对乡村景观功能的定位结果进行量化,即乡村景观的优化配置。然后,对研究区域13个村的乡村景观功能进行定位：3个生态保护型村、2个生态旅游型村、1个生态农业型村、2个农业生产型村和5个农业经济型村,然后对其乡村景观格局进行优化配置。
(4)以新型城镇化为理论指导,提出了以乡村景观的预测格局为基础,以乡村景观的功能定位与优化配置为数量依据,以乡村景观稳定性的评价结果为空间参考的乡村景观优化布局模式,符合新型城镇化中“不以牺牲农业和粮食、生态和环境为代价”的中心思想。
There have been many problems in the process of rapid urbanization over the past decades in China, such as irrational urban planning, dramatic increase in environmental pressure and delayed development of the public services. In order to change this situation, an intensive, intelligent, green, low-carbon new-type urbanization method was proposed by the Chinese government.
As well as agricultural modernization and new rural construction, new-type urbanization is the better way to promote the urban-rural integration development. The core approach of new-type urbanization is to promote development of economy and society by realizing integrated urban-rural infrastructure and equalization of public service without at the expense of agriculture and food, ecology and environment. Which kind layout of rural landscape pattern can achieve the goal of "production development, wealthy life, polite phenomenon, clean and tidy appearance and democratic management" is one of the key issues of rural landscape planning in the context of rapid urbanization.
This work conducted a systematic study of the evolvement and layout of rural landscape pattern with the theoretical support of landscape ecology "pattern-process-function". The main research content of this work is followed by the simulation and prediction methods of rural landscape pattern evolution, the evaluation of rural landscape stability, the orientation of rural landscape function and the optimization of rural landscape configuration with the integrated application of life cycle theory, niche theory, CA-Markov model, multiple linear regression and3s technology. Based on the above researches, an optimized layout model of rural landscape was proposed with optimization and adjustment of landscape configuration as the core. Then, the approach is exemplified by a case study conducted in the Jinjing Town of Dongting Lake area, China. I simulated and predicted its rural landscape pattern evolution, evaluated its rural landscape stability, orientated its rural landscape function, optimized its rural landscape configuration, and proposed an optimized layout project of its rural landscape pattern. The conclusions of the work are listed as follows:
(1) This paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model based the rule of rural landscape change was built. Jinjing Town was taken as a case study to predict the times of5units of rural landscape pattern reaching steady state: after40-65years, after30-35years, after5-15years, after10-20years, and after20-45years. Compared with the remote hilly region, the landscape pattern in traffic developed plains reach steady state much earlier. Then, Jinjing Town was also taken as a case study to be predicted rural landscape changing in2020, the results showed that:in all landscape patterns, rural settlement landscape increased to1194.01hm2and paddy landscape greatly reduced to3090.24hm2, both were the largest change, also the prediction accuracy of quantitative and spatial via life cycle theory model were highly up to99.3%and96.4%respectively, obviously were more explicit than single CA-Markov model.
(2) The unchanged probability, added probability and disappeared probability of each kind landscape under the effect of impact factors were analyzed by multiple linear regression by using SPSS software. Rural landscape stability was evaluated based on the3kinds of change probability of rural landscape, and the stability was divided into4grades:most stability, more stability, less instability and instability. The case study shows that:the spatial distribution regularities of unchanged probability is consistent with the spatial distribution regularities of added probability but reveal contrary property to the spatial distribution regularities of disappeared probability. It means the unchanged probability, added probability and disappeared probability of landscape reflect the rural landscape stability. The case study also shows:the stability of tea garden is mainly affected by soil type; elevation and slope play a key role to the stability of farmland and woodland; the stability of pond in acid purple soil region is much higher than it in the other area; The distance between business and services center had the greatest impact on the stability of settlement.
(3) The niche-fitness of the agricultural production function, ecological conservation function and social economy function of rural landscape were evaluated according to niche theory. The function orientation of rural landscape was achieved based on the niche-fitness of the6kinds of function: ecological protection, ecological tourism, ecological agriculture, agricultural production, agricultural economy and economic dominant. The security area of farmland and the restricted area of settlement were calculated according to grain demand and per capita construction land index. Then, the results of function orientation of rural landscape were quantified to optimize the configuration of rural landscape. The results of the function orientation of rural landscape in Jinjing Town are3ecological protection villages,2ecological tourism villages,1ecological agriculture village,2agricultural production and5agricultural economy villages. Then the rural landscape configuration of each village was optimized according to its security area of farmland and restricted area of settlement
(4) Under the instruction of new-type urbanization theory, an optimized layout model of rural landscape was proposed, which taken the prediction pattern of rural landscape as base map, taken the optimized configuration of rural landscape as quantitative reference, taken the evaluation results of rural landscape stability as spatial reference. On the basis of a feasible guarantee scheme, promoting the coordinated development of the sustainable utilization of the landscape resources and the coordinated development of rural landscape function should be in accordance with " without sacrificing agriculture and food, ecology and environment" in new-type urbanization theory.
(1)应用生命周期理论分析乡村景观格局的演变周期,并根据生长曲线设置演变周期曲线,与CA-Markov模型耦合建立了生命周期修正模型。并对研究区域进行实证研究：以2009年为基期年对生命周期修正模型进行精度验证,结果表明该模型更符合乡村景观格局的演变规律；然后预测了研究区域乡村景观格局达到稳定状态的时间以及2020年的景观格局,其结果表明：在城镇化的影响下聚落的面积将继续增长,茶园、农田和池塘的面积将有所下降,林地的面积略有增长。
(2)通过多元线性回归方法研究各种乡村景观类型在不同影响因子作用下不变、新增和灭失的概率,进而对乡村景观的稳定性进行评价,划分了稳定、较稳定、较不稳定和不稳定4个等级。通过对研究区域的实证研究可以看出：不变概率的空间分布规律与新增概率的空间分布规律基本一致、与灭失概率的空间分布规律基本互逆,说明景观的变化概率可以反映出乡村景观的稳定性。
(3)根据生态位理论评价乡村景观的农业生产功能、生态涵养功能和社会经济功能的生态位适宜度,进而对乡村的景观功能进行定位：生态保护、生态旅游、生态农业、农业生产、农业经济和经济主导。在粮食需求和人均建设用地指标的基础上对乡村景观功能的定位结果进行量化,即乡村景观的优化配置。然后,对研究区域13个村的乡村景观功能进行定位：3个生态保护型村、2个生态旅游型村、1个生态农业型村、2个农业生产型村和5个农业经济型村,然后对其乡村景观格局进行优化配置。
(4)以新型城镇化为理论指导,提出了以乡村景观的预测格局为基础,以乡村景观的功能定位与优化配置为数量依据,以乡村景观稳定性的评价结果为空间参考的乡村景观优化布局模式,符合新型城镇化中“不以牺牲农业和粮食、生态和环境为代价”的中心思想。
There have been many problems in the process of rapid urbanization over the past decades in China, such as irrational urban planning, dramatic increase in environmental pressure and delayed development of the public services. In order to change this situation, an intensive, intelligent, green, low-carbon new-type urbanization method was proposed by the Chinese government.
As well as agricultural modernization and new rural construction, new-type urbanization is the better way to promote the urban-rural integration development. The core approach of new-type urbanization is to promote development of economy and society by realizing integrated urban-rural infrastructure and equalization of public service without at the expense of agriculture and food, ecology and environment. Which kind layout of rural landscape pattern can achieve the goal of "production development, wealthy life, polite phenomenon, clean and tidy appearance and democratic management" is one of the key issues of rural landscape planning in the context of rapid urbanization.
This work conducted a systematic study of the evolvement and layout of rural landscape pattern with the theoretical support of landscape ecology "pattern-process-function". The main research content of this work is followed by the simulation and prediction methods of rural landscape pattern evolution, the evaluation of rural landscape stability, the orientation of rural landscape function and the optimization of rural landscape configuration with the integrated application of life cycle theory, niche theory, CA-Markov model, multiple linear regression and3s technology. Based on the above researches, an optimized layout model of rural landscape was proposed with optimization and adjustment of landscape configuration as the core. Then, the approach is exemplified by a case study conducted in the Jinjing Town of Dongting Lake area, China. I simulated and predicted its rural landscape pattern evolution, evaluated its rural landscape stability, orientated its rural landscape function, optimized its rural landscape configuration, and proposed an optimized layout project of its rural landscape pattern. The conclusions of the work are listed as follows:
(1) This paper analyzed the evolution of rural landscape patterns by means of life cycle theory, simulated the evolution cycle curve, and calculated its evolution period, then combining CA-Markov model, a complete prediction model based the rule of rural landscape change was built. Jinjing Town was taken as a case study to predict the times of5units of rural landscape pattern reaching steady state: after40-65years, after30-35years, after5-15years, after10-20years, and after20-45years. Compared with the remote hilly region, the landscape pattern in traffic developed plains reach steady state much earlier. Then, Jinjing Town was also taken as a case study to be predicted rural landscape changing in2020, the results showed that:in all landscape patterns, rural settlement landscape increased to1194.01hm2and paddy landscape greatly reduced to3090.24hm2, both were the largest change, also the prediction accuracy of quantitative and spatial via life cycle theory model were highly up to99.3%and96.4%respectively, obviously were more explicit than single CA-Markov model.
(2) The unchanged probability, added probability and disappeared probability of each kind landscape under the effect of impact factors were analyzed by multiple linear regression by using SPSS software. Rural landscape stability was evaluated based on the3kinds of change probability of rural landscape, and the stability was divided into4grades:most stability, more stability, less instability and instability. The case study shows that:the spatial distribution regularities of unchanged probability is consistent with the spatial distribution regularities of added probability but reveal contrary property to the spatial distribution regularities of disappeared probability. It means the unchanged probability, added probability and disappeared probability of landscape reflect the rural landscape stability. The case study also shows:the stability of tea garden is mainly affected by soil type; elevation and slope play a key role to the stability of farmland and woodland; the stability of pond in acid purple soil region is much higher than it in the other area; The distance between business and services center had the greatest impact on the stability of settlement.
(3) The niche-fitness of the agricultural production function, ecological conservation function and social economy function of rural landscape were evaluated according to niche theory. The function orientation of rural landscape was achieved based on the niche-fitness of the6kinds of function: ecological protection, ecological tourism, ecological agriculture, agricultural production, agricultural economy and economic dominant. The security area of farmland and the restricted area of settlement were calculated according to grain demand and per capita construction land index. Then, the results of function orientation of rural landscape were quantified to optimize the configuration of rural landscape. The results of the function orientation of rural landscape in Jinjing Town are3ecological protection villages,2ecological tourism villages,1ecological agriculture village,2agricultural production and5agricultural economy villages. Then the rural landscape configuration of each village was optimized according to its security area of farmland and restricted area of settlement
(4) Under the instruction of new-type urbanization theory, an optimized layout model of rural landscape was proposed, which taken the prediction pattern of rural landscape as base map, taken the optimized configuration of rural landscape as quantitative reference, taken the evaluation results of rural landscape stability as spatial reference. On the basis of a feasible guarantee scheme, promoting the coordinated development of the sustainable utilization of the landscape resources and the coordinated development of rural landscape function should be in accordance with " without sacrificing agriculture and food, ecology and environment" in new-type urbanization theory.
引文
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