基于能力的武器装备体系评估方法与应用研究
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摘要
随着科学技术的快速发展，武器装备的信息化水平不断提升，装备之间的联系变得愈加紧密，武装力量间的对抗方式正在由传统的“平台中心战”向“基于信息系统的体系对抗”转变。为应对这种深刻的变化，开展武器装备体系建模、评估、优化相关理论、方法、技术的研究具有重要的理论意义和实用价值。本文紧紧围绕“基于能力的武器装备体系评估”这一问题，系统深入地研究了体系能力建模及关系分析、体系能力需求满足度评估、体系能力差距优先级评估。
论文主要研究工作和创新点包括：
（1）建立了基于能力的武器装备体系评估框架
首先，研究了基于能力的武器装备体系评估（Capabilities-based WeaponSystem-of-Systems Assessment, CBWSoSA）中相关概念，提出武器装备体系、体系能力、体系能力需求、体系能力差距、体系能力冗余、体系作战效能、基于能力的武器装备体系评估等概念。然后，分析了CBWSoSA中的五个子问题，即体系能力建模、体系能力水平分析、体系能力需求获取、体系能力需求满足度评估、体系能力差距优先级评估。最后，提出了CBWSoSA的过程模型，包括武器装备体系能力需求获取、武器装备体系能力水平分析、武器装备体系综合评价、解决方案生成四个子过程，分析了每个子过程的输入、输出、主要活动及相互关系等，特别对体系能力需求获取过程提出了基于多视图的体系能力需求获取参考模型。
（2）研究了武器装备体系能力建模和关系视图分析
武器装备体系能力建模和关系分析是CBWSoSA的基础。首先，研究了能力的形式化描述和能力指标分类。然后，提出了广义能力关系分析的概念，分析了能力与能力、能力与武器装备、能力与基本作战活动、能力需求与能力水平之间的关系。最后，采用多视图方法建立了五类能力关系视图，包括能力分类视图、能力依赖关系视图、能力——武器装备关系视图、能力——基本作战活动关系视图和能力差距视图，总结归纳了能力关系视图的核心数据及其相互关系，分析给出了能力关系视图开发流程。
（3）提出了武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估方法
针对能力需求满足评估中包含多种不确定性和输入能力数据类型多样的特点，借鉴RIMER（Belief Rule-based Inference Methodology using Evidential Reasoning,RIMER）方法的思想，提出了一种能力需求满足度评估方法。该方法以能力关系视图为基础构建信度规则库，根据能力指标类型定义了五类匹配函数，通过信度规则综合激活度计算和基于证据推理算法的规则合成获取武器装备体系满足使命能力需求的信度分布。该方法能处理评估过程中的多种不确定性，特别是不可知的情形，评估结果是能力需求满足程度的信度分布，是一种定性与定量相结合的评估方法。
（4）提出了武器装备体系能力差距优先级评估方法
能力差距优先级评估是根据一组的评价属性获取能力差距序值，评价结果能用于支持武器装备采办项目选择和相关条令条例调整。首先，分析了武器装备体系能力差距产生的原因、特点等。然后，提出了基于证据推理的能力差距优先级评估方法，该方法采用信度结构表示不同领域专家意见，以目标规划方法计算评价属性权重，通过证据推理算法获得能力差距重要度分布，综合四类算子获得能力差距序值。最后，以五项能力评价属性以及专家提供四种类型的不完全偏好矩阵为例，给出了综合权重计算方法。
（5）开展了装甲装备体系能力建模和评估应用研究
设计开发了武器装备体系能力建模原型系统，并以装甲装备体系为例，分析建立了某装甲装备体系的五类能力关系视图。在此基础上，对装甲装备体系的能力需求满足度、能力差距优先级进行评估，验证了本文所提方法的合理性和有效性。
Rapid development in science and technology fields promotes the informatizationlevel of weapons and equipments, whose connections becoming closer, and the combatmode of forces is transforming from traditional ‘platform-centric warfare’ to‘information system-based system-of-systems warfare’ as result. To adapt thistremendous transformation, researches on weapon system-of-systems (WSoS)modeling、assessment、optimization and its related theories, methodologies are of greattheoretical meaning and practical value.Taking capability as core concept, thisdissertation studies capabilities-based WSoS assessment systematically and thoroughly,including WSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis, WSoS capabilityrequirement satisfactory assessment and prioritization of WSoS capability gapsassessment.
The main results and contributions of this thesis are presented as follows.
（1） Aframework for capability-based WSoS assessment is established.
First, series of concepts related to capabilities-based WSoS assessment(CBWSoSA) are studied, including WSoS, WSoS capability, WSoS capabilityrequirement, WSoS capability gaps, WSoS capability redundancy, WSoS combateffectiveness and capabilities-based WSoS assessment. Then, five sub-problems ofCBWSoSA are analyzed, including WSoS capability modeling, WSoS capability levelanalysis, WSoS capability requirement acquirement, WSoS capability satisfactoryassessment and prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment. Finally, the processmodel of CBWSoSA is proposed, including WSoS capability requirement acquirementprocess, WSoS capability level analysis process, WSoS comprehensive assessmentprocess and solution generation process. Inputs, outputs, main activities andinterrelationships of theses process are analyzed. Using multi-views approach, areference model for the capability requirements acquirement is proposed.
（2） TheWSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis areinvestigated.
WSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis is the basis for CBWSoSA.First, capability formalization description and capability indices classification arestudied. Then, a new general capability relationship analysis definition is proposed andrelationships between capabilities, capability-system, capability-basic operationalactivity, capability requirement-WSoS practical capability level are analyzed. Usingmulti-views approach, five capability relationship views (CRV) are established,including the capability taxonomy, capability dependency view, capability-armamentrelationship view, capability-basic operational activity relathionship viewand capability gaps view. Finally, the core data and its relationship of each view are summarized withthe development process for CRV.
（3） A RIMER-based WSoS capability satisfactory assessment method isproposed.
Considering the multiple uncertainty and input data type in capability requirementsatisfactory degree assessment (CRSDA), a new RIMER (belief rule-based inferencemethodology using evidential reasoning approach, RIMER)-based CRSDA method isproposed from the perspective of capability requirement. The evaluation processincludes four steps: first, establish the belief rule base based on CRV; second, transformthe evaluation data into belief structure; third, determine the activated degree of theinput data to the belief rules; last, calculate the evaluation results using the evidentialreasoning (ER) method. This method can be applied to handle many kinds ofuncertainties, especially deals with ignorance. The result of this method is the beliefdistribution of the WSoS to fulfill its mission.
（4） An ER-based prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment methodis proposed.
Prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment (PWCGA) ranks the capabilitygaps based on a set of attributes,which can be used to guide national defense projectsselection and related doctrine adjustment. First, the cause, characteristics and relatedissues of WSoS capability gaps are studied. Second, an ER-based prioritization ofWSoS capability gaps assessment is proposed. This method expresses experts’opionionusing belief structure, calculates attribute weights based on goal programming, deriveimportance distribution through ER algorithm, and integrates four operators to get therank value of each capability gaps. Last, a comprehensive weight calculation case offive capability evaluation attributes and four type incomplete preference matrixs derivedfrom the experts is demonstrated, which validates the advantage of the method incomputation complexity and total difference.
（5） The armored WSoS (AWS) capability modeling and assessment areinvestigated.
First, the system for WSoS capability modeling is designed and developed. Thenfive CRVs of AWS are constructed as an example. Last, the AWS capability satisfactorydegree and capability gap priority are evaluated, which validates the reasonability andeffectiveness of the approach proposed in this dissertation.
论文主要研究工作和创新点包括：
（1）建立了基于能力的武器装备体系评估框架
首先，研究了基于能力的武器装备体系评估（Capabilities-based WeaponSystem-of-Systems Assessment, CBWSoSA）中相关概念，提出武器装备体系、体系能力、体系能力需求、体系能力差距、体系能力冗余、体系作战效能、基于能力的武器装备体系评估等概念。然后，分析了CBWSoSA中的五个子问题，即体系能力建模、体系能力水平分析、体系能力需求获取、体系能力需求满足度评估、体系能力差距优先级评估。最后，提出了CBWSoSA的过程模型，包括武器装备体系能力需求获取、武器装备体系能力水平分析、武器装备体系综合评价、解决方案生成四个子过程，分析了每个子过程的输入、输出、主要活动及相互关系等，特别对体系能力需求获取过程提出了基于多视图的体系能力需求获取参考模型。
（2）研究了武器装备体系能力建模和关系视图分析
武器装备体系能力建模和关系分析是CBWSoSA的基础。首先，研究了能力的形式化描述和能力指标分类。然后，提出了广义能力关系分析的概念，分析了能力与能力、能力与武器装备、能力与基本作战活动、能力需求与能力水平之间的关系。最后，采用多视图方法建立了五类能力关系视图，包括能力分类视图、能力依赖关系视图、能力——武器装备关系视图、能力——基本作战活动关系视图和能力差距视图，总结归纳了能力关系视图的核心数据及其相互关系，分析给出了能力关系视图开发流程。
（3）提出了武器装备体系能力需求满足度评估方法
针对能力需求满足评估中包含多种不确定性和输入能力数据类型多样的特点，借鉴RIMER（Belief Rule-based Inference Methodology using Evidential Reasoning,RIMER）方法的思想，提出了一种能力需求满足度评估方法。该方法以能力关系视图为基础构建信度规则库，根据能力指标类型定义了五类匹配函数，通过信度规则综合激活度计算和基于证据推理算法的规则合成获取武器装备体系满足使命能力需求的信度分布。该方法能处理评估过程中的多种不确定性，特别是不可知的情形，评估结果是能力需求满足程度的信度分布，是一种定性与定量相结合的评估方法。
（4）提出了武器装备体系能力差距优先级评估方法
能力差距优先级评估是根据一组的评价属性获取能力差距序值，评价结果能用于支持武器装备采办项目选择和相关条令条例调整。首先，分析了武器装备体系能力差距产生的原因、特点等。然后，提出了基于证据推理的能力差距优先级评估方法，该方法采用信度结构表示不同领域专家意见，以目标规划方法计算评价属性权重，通过证据推理算法获得能力差距重要度分布，综合四类算子获得能力差距序值。最后，以五项能力评价属性以及专家提供四种类型的不完全偏好矩阵为例，给出了综合权重计算方法。
（5）开展了装甲装备体系能力建模和评估应用研究
设计开发了武器装备体系能力建模原型系统，并以装甲装备体系为例，分析建立了某装甲装备体系的五类能力关系视图。在此基础上，对装甲装备体系的能力需求满足度、能力差距优先级进行评估，验证了本文所提方法的合理性和有效性。
Rapid development in science and technology fields promotes the informatizationlevel of weapons and equipments, whose connections becoming closer, and the combatmode of forces is transforming from traditional ‘platform-centric warfare’ to‘information system-based system-of-systems warfare’ as result. To adapt thistremendous transformation, researches on weapon system-of-systems (WSoS)modeling、assessment、optimization and its related theories, methodologies are of greattheoretical meaning and practical value.Taking capability as core concept, thisdissertation studies capabilities-based WSoS assessment systematically and thoroughly,including WSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis, WSoS capabilityrequirement satisfactory assessment and prioritization of WSoS capability gapsassessment.
The main results and contributions of this thesis are presented as follows.
（1） Aframework for capability-based WSoS assessment is established.
First, series of concepts related to capabilities-based WSoS assessment(CBWSoSA) are studied, including WSoS, WSoS capability, WSoS capabilityrequirement, WSoS capability gaps, WSoS capability redundancy, WSoS combateffectiveness and capabilities-based WSoS assessment. Then, five sub-problems ofCBWSoSA are analyzed, including WSoS capability modeling, WSoS capability levelanalysis, WSoS capability requirement acquirement, WSoS capability satisfactoryassessment and prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment. Finally, the processmodel of CBWSoSA is proposed, including WSoS capability requirement acquirementprocess, WSoS capability level analysis process, WSoS comprehensive assessmentprocess and solution generation process. Inputs, outputs, main activities andinterrelationships of theses process are analyzed. Using multi-views approach, areference model for the capability requirements acquirement is proposed.
（2） TheWSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis areinvestigated.
WSoS capability modeling and relationship analysis is the basis for CBWSoSA.First, capability formalization description and capability indices classification arestudied. Then, a new general capability relationship analysis definition is proposed andrelationships between capabilities, capability-system, capability-basic operationalactivity, capability requirement-WSoS practical capability level are analyzed. Usingmulti-views approach, five capability relationship views (CRV) are established,including the capability taxonomy, capability dependency view, capability-armamentrelationship view, capability-basic operational activity relathionship viewand capability gaps view. Finally, the core data and its relationship of each view are summarized withthe development process for CRV.
（3） A RIMER-based WSoS capability satisfactory assessment method isproposed.
Considering the multiple uncertainty and input data type in capability requirementsatisfactory degree assessment (CRSDA), a new RIMER (belief rule-based inferencemethodology using evidential reasoning approach, RIMER)-based CRSDA method isproposed from the perspective of capability requirement. The evaluation processincludes four steps: first, establish the belief rule base based on CRV; second, transformthe evaluation data into belief structure; third, determine the activated degree of theinput data to the belief rules; last, calculate the evaluation results using the evidentialreasoning (ER) method. This method can be applied to handle many kinds ofuncertainties, especially deals with ignorance. The result of this method is the beliefdistribution of the WSoS to fulfill its mission.
（4） An ER-based prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment methodis proposed.
Prioritization of WSoS capability gaps assessment (PWCGA) ranks the capabilitygaps based on a set of attributes,which can be used to guide national defense projectsselection and related doctrine adjustment. First, the cause, characteristics and relatedissues of WSoS capability gaps are studied. Second, an ER-based prioritization ofWSoS capability gaps assessment is proposed. This method expresses experts’opionionusing belief structure, calculates attribute weights based on goal programming, deriveimportance distribution through ER algorithm, and integrates four operators to get therank value of each capability gaps. Last, a comprehensive weight calculation case offive capability evaluation attributes and four type incomplete preference matrixs derivedfrom the experts is demonstrated, which validates the advantage of the method incomputation complexity and total difference.
（5） The armored WSoS (AWS) capability modeling and assessment areinvestigated.
First, the system for WSoS capability modeling is designed and developed. Thenfive CRVs of AWS are constructed as an example. Last, the AWS capability satisfactorydegree and capability gap priority are evaluated, which validates the reasonability andeffectiveness of the approach proposed in this dissertation.
引文
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