中国近海海温长期变化特征及其对沿岸气候的影响
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摘要
海-气相互作用是气候变化和变异研究的重要问题。海洋对大气以热力作用为主，而海温是海洋最重要的热力参数。本文分析探讨了中国近海地区海表水温长期变化及其对沿岸地带中尺度天气气候现象发生和演化的可能影响。首先利用英国Hadley中心近142年逐月全球海温资料集，分析了中国近海近142年海温气候学特征和长期变化特征及其可能原因；然后利用近51年山东省冬季逐日降水资料分析了山东半岛“海效降水”及其与近海海温和海冰的作用机理；最后采用沿岸自动站逐时风速、风向资料，初步分析了我国沿岸地带典型地点海陆风环流特征。本文得到以下主要结论：
（1）近142年中国近海海温在各个海区均有显著增加趋势，其中以东海增暖最显著；增温主要从上世纪40年代开始，60-70年代变化较小，90年代增温最显著，但进入本世纪，增温趋势明显减弱；各海区最高温均发生在1998年，上世纪90年代和本世纪初是海温最高年代；与全球温度变化类似，中国近海海温在本世纪初开始（近10年）有变暖停滞现象；上世纪80年代中期海温在各海区均有突变。近142年不同海区变暖趋势最大的季节均在秋季（除了渤、黄海外），冬季次之；与其它海区相比，东海在四季均有最大增暖趋势。而近50年，比较各海区四个季节，均为冬季增暖最显著，东海增暖最显著。夏季我国南海西部、越南东南岸外存在一个相对低温区，近30年南海西部的冷水涌升作用有减弱趋势，这种减弱现象可能和西南夏季风减弱有关。
（2）近51年山东半岛共有1173个“海效降水”日，其中降雪日占73.7%，降雨日占16.1%，雨雪天占10.1%的“海效降水”日。不同等级降雪12月份发生的频率最高，雨天和雨雪天11月份发生的频率最高。降雪主要分布在以文登和成山头为中心的区域，降雨则主要分布在沿岸地区。
（3）渤海海表温度和850hPa气温差达到10℃以上时，山东半岛发生“海效降水”的概率最大，10-15℃时以小雪为主，15-20℃时以中小雪为主，20-25℃期间不同等级降雪发生概率类似，25℃以上时以暴雪为主；降雨和雨雪天也主要发生在海-气温差在10℃-20℃之间，随着海-气温差增加，降水出现频率减小，但降水量增加；不管哪种类型的“海效降水”，海-气温差在15-20℃时发生频率都是最高的；山东半岛“海效降水”三种类型中，降雪和雨雪天降水强度与海冰面积呈弱的负相关。环流分析表明，不同类型“海效降水”500hPa高度场具有明显的差异。
（4）本文选取的14个沿岸代表站在2012年海陆风发生平均日数为92.5天，最多的站点达到140天，最少的站点为49天；所有代表站几乎每个月都有海陆风现象发生。
Sea-air interaction is one of the hot topics of climate change and variability studiesnowadays. The sea influences the atmosphere through thermo-dynamical effect, while seasurface temperature (SST) is the most important parameter that shows the thermo-dynamicalcharacteristic of sea water. Therefore, in our study in this paper, climatology and long termchange of China adjacent seas SST and its possible impact on coastal meso-scale weatherdevelopment were analyzed. Firstly, we used monthly SST dataset for recent142years fromHadley center to analyze the climatology and long term change characteristics of Chinamarginal seas SST and its possible reason. Furthermore, Shan dong peninsula "sea effectprecipitation" characteristics and its correlation with SST and sea ice were analyzed based onwinter daily precipitation data in recent51years. Finally, coastal sea\land breeze were studiedby using automatic station hourly wind speed and wind direction records. The results are asfollows:
(1) In recent142years, China adjacent seas saw warming trend, especially the East China Sea.The warming began from40s in last century,60-70s saw less change and1990s sawsignificant warming, while it showed warming hiatus by the beginning of this century. All theareas saw the highest temperature in1998and1990s in last century and the first decade of thiscentury is the warmest period. Similar to the global temperature, warming hiatus was seen forthe whole area and reasons are discussed in this paper. SST regime shifts were also seen ineach area during the middle of80s in last century. In recent142years, the most warmingseason is autumn followed by winter in each area (except BYS). Compared to other areas,ECS saw the most warming trend for all the seasons. While, in recent50years, winter is themost warming season for all the areas. ECS saw the most warming. Summer low temperaturearea in SCS is closely related to the SCS summer monsoon, the monsoon weakened in recent30years and caused the weakening of the coastal upwelling, which resulting in more warmingof the cold water area.
(2) Totally1173"sea effect precipitation" days were selected for the Shandong peninsula in recent51years, with snow, rain, rain\snow days occupying73.7%,16.1%,10.1%respectively.December is the most productive month for different intensity "sea effect snow" andNovember is the most productive month for rain and rain\snow."Sea effect snow" is mostlylocated around Wendeng and Chengshantou centered area, while "sea effect rain" is locatedalong the coastal area.
(3)10℃temperature gap between the SST and850hPa air temperature is the most favorablecondition for the occurrence of "sea effect precipitation", mostly light snow for10-15℃,mostly moderate and light snow for15-20℃, and chances are the same for happening ofdifferent ranks of snow during20-25℃. Blizzard is the main class for above25℃temperaturegap. Rainfall and rain/snow mostly happened during10℃-20℃gap. With temperature gapincreases, the frequency decreased along with strengthening of intensity. Regardless ofprecipitation type,15-20℃is the most favorable temperature gap forhigh frequency "seaeffect precipitation". Sea effect snow and rain\snow are negatively correlated to sea ice extent.500hPa geopotential height field shows discrepancy for different types of "sea effectprecipitation".
(4) Automatic station hourly data were used to analyze the coastal sea-land breeze for14stations during2012. There occurred annually92.5sea-land breeze days with a maximum of140days and minimum of49days. Almost each month saw sea-land breeze days.
（1）近142年中国近海海温在各个海区均有显著增加趋势，其中以东海增暖最显著；增温主要从上世纪40年代开始，60-70年代变化较小，90年代增温最显著，但进入本世纪，增温趋势明显减弱；各海区最高温均发生在1998年，上世纪90年代和本世纪初是海温最高年代；与全球温度变化类似，中国近海海温在本世纪初开始（近10年）有变暖停滞现象；上世纪80年代中期海温在各海区均有突变。近142年不同海区变暖趋势最大的季节均在秋季（除了渤、黄海外），冬季次之；与其它海区相比，东海在四季均有最大增暖趋势。而近50年，比较各海区四个季节，均为冬季增暖最显著，东海增暖最显著。夏季我国南海西部、越南东南岸外存在一个相对低温区，近30年南海西部的冷水涌升作用有减弱趋势，这种减弱现象可能和西南夏季风减弱有关。
（2）近51年山东半岛共有1173个“海效降水”日，其中降雪日占73.7%，降雨日占16.1%，雨雪天占10.1%的“海效降水”日。不同等级降雪12月份发生的频率最高，雨天和雨雪天11月份发生的频率最高。降雪主要分布在以文登和成山头为中心的区域，降雨则主要分布在沿岸地区。
（3）渤海海表温度和850hPa气温差达到10℃以上时，山东半岛发生“海效降水”的概率最大，10-15℃时以小雪为主，15-20℃时以中小雪为主，20-25℃期间不同等级降雪发生概率类似，25℃以上时以暴雪为主；降雨和雨雪天也主要发生在海-气温差在10℃-20℃之间，随着海-气温差增加，降水出现频率减小，但降水量增加；不管哪种类型的“海效降水”，海-气温差在15-20℃时发生频率都是最高的；山东半岛“海效降水”三种类型中，降雪和雨雪天降水强度与海冰面积呈弱的负相关。环流分析表明，不同类型“海效降水”500hPa高度场具有明显的差异。
（4）本文选取的14个沿岸代表站在2012年海陆风发生平均日数为92.5天，最多的站点达到140天，最少的站点为49天；所有代表站几乎每个月都有海陆风现象发生。
Sea-air interaction is one of the hot topics of climate change and variability studiesnowadays. The sea influences the atmosphere through thermo-dynamical effect, while seasurface temperature (SST) is the most important parameter that shows the thermo-dynamicalcharacteristic of sea water. Therefore, in our study in this paper, climatology and long termchange of China adjacent seas SST and its possible impact on coastal meso-scale weatherdevelopment were analyzed. Firstly, we used monthly SST dataset for recent142years fromHadley center to analyze the climatology and long term change characteristics of Chinamarginal seas SST and its possible reason. Furthermore, Shan dong peninsula "sea effectprecipitation" characteristics and its correlation with SST and sea ice were analyzed based onwinter daily precipitation data in recent51years. Finally, coastal sea\land breeze were studiedby using automatic station hourly wind speed and wind direction records. The results are asfollows:
(1) In recent142years, China adjacent seas saw warming trend, especially the East China Sea.The warming began from40s in last century,60-70s saw less change and1990s sawsignificant warming, while it showed warming hiatus by the beginning of this century. All theareas saw the highest temperature in1998and1990s in last century and the first decade of thiscentury is the warmest period. Similar to the global temperature, warming hiatus was seen forthe whole area and reasons are discussed in this paper. SST regime shifts were also seen ineach area during the middle of80s in last century. In recent142years, the most warmingseason is autumn followed by winter in each area (except BYS). Compared to other areas,ECS saw the most warming trend for all the seasons. While, in recent50years, winter is themost warming season for all the areas. ECS saw the most warming. Summer low temperaturearea in SCS is closely related to the SCS summer monsoon, the monsoon weakened in recent30years and caused the weakening of the coastal upwelling, which resulting in more warmingof the cold water area.
(2) Totally1173"sea effect precipitation" days were selected for the Shandong peninsula in recent51years, with snow, rain, rain\snow days occupying73.7%,16.1%,10.1%respectively.December is the most productive month for different intensity "sea effect snow" andNovember is the most productive month for rain and rain\snow."Sea effect snow" is mostlylocated around Wendeng and Chengshantou centered area, while "sea effect rain" is locatedalong the coastal area.
(3)10℃temperature gap between the SST and850hPa air temperature is the most favorablecondition for the occurrence of "sea effect precipitation", mostly light snow for10-15℃,mostly moderate and light snow for15-20℃, and chances are the same for happening ofdifferent ranks of snow during20-25℃. Blizzard is the main class for above25℃temperaturegap. Rainfall and rain/snow mostly happened during10℃-20℃gap. With temperature gapincreases, the frequency decreased along with strengthening of intensity. Regardless ofprecipitation type,15-20℃is the most favorable temperature gap forhigh frequency "seaeffect precipitation". Sea effect snow and rain\snow are negatively correlated to sea ice extent.500hPa geopotential height field shows discrepancy for different types of "sea effectprecipitation".
(4) Automatic station hourly data were used to analyze the coastal sea-land breeze for14stations during2012. There occurred annually92.5sea-land breeze days with a maximum of140days and minimum of49days. Almost each month saw sea-land breeze days.
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