单星预警弹道导弹参数估计方法研究
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摘要
天基预警系统是战略预警系统的重要组成部分,基于单颗预警卫星观测的弹道导弹预警是天基预警系统发展的必经历程和重要组成部分,单颗预警卫星观测条件下的弹道导弹参数估计是天基预警系统需要解决的关键问题。
单星弹道导弹参数估计的传统方法基于标准弹道模板先验信息的支持,但标准弹道模板先验信息获取困难,从而限制了此类方法的应用。本文在单颗预警卫星观测条件下,通过对弹道导弹参数估计问题的深入研究,突破传统算法严重依赖于标准弹道模板先验信息的局限,建立了基于单颗预警卫星观测弹道导弹参数估计的系列核心算法,较为系统的回答了在单颗预警卫星观测下,何种前提条件可以得到何种预警信息的问题。
本文首先建立了基于动力特征的单星弹道导弹参数估计算法,并重点研究了基于试验靶场飞行管道的动力特征提取与修正算法,基于该系列方法可逐步建立包含动力特征的先验信息库用于单星预警。基于动力特征的单星弹道导弹参数估计以弹道导弹的平面特性和弹道切割模型为基础,利用动力特征先验信息进行弹道导弹参数估计。动力特征提取与修正算法以试验靶场飞行管道信息为约束条件,基于单颗预警卫星平时观测提取导弹的动力特征,同时可利用同类型导弹的多次试验观测来对动力特征进行修正。
本文进一步深入研究了弹道导弹的主动段特征,建立了两种基于模型约束的单星弹道导弹参数估计算法,包括:基于攻角约束的参数估计和基于动量守恒的参数估计。此类方法在无需标准弹道模板或动力特征等先验信息支持的情况下,可以对来袭导弹给出较高精度的射向估计结果,能够有效引导地基预警系统接力跟踪,为天基预警系统的弹道导弹早期预警提供了一种可行的引导方案。基于攻角约束的弹道导弹参数估计算法从导弹的动力学模型出发,在弹道导弹主动段中后部分攻角接近于零的假设下,利用带有区间约束LMF算法进行参数估计。基于动量守恒的弹道导弹参数估计算法通过弹道导弹飞行的动量模型和半解析的遍历算法进行弹道导弹参数估计。
在上述研究基础上,本文还将基于动量守恒的参数估计算法推广至大椭圆预警星座,并对高轨预警系统复合星座的覆盖特性进行了研究,同时在保证估计精度的前提下对全球覆盖的高轨预警星座设计提出了建议。
为支持天地基预警的引导交接,本文提出了基于模糊聚类识别弹头伴飞物的新算法,解决了预警交接过程中关键的目标识别问题。该算法通过分析弹体分离的多目标飞行特性,构建弹头和伴飞物相对位置的模糊等价关系,基于空间点共线及对称性的模糊判定方法进行弹头识别。
最后,本文构建了面向天基预警的分布式仿真平台,能够有效的完成复杂预警场景的仿真与演示。仿真平台依靠分布式集群系统提高其计算能力,基于高层体系结构并利用主体技术增强其仿真的动态适应性,采用自主设计三维渲染引擎以满足复杂成像模型以及场景演示的需求,利用插件与脚本表示相结合实现其扩展性,并充分集成现有的开源软体以加速其开发。
The early warning of single satellite is a necessary process and an important part of the early warning system. As forepart warning, it is very important to give trajectory course information early to radar system for putting a tail on the missile. The trajectory estimation and prediction in the space early warning system is a typical application of data fusion technique in the target tracking field. It is an integrative data processing method, which synthesizes the information detected by sensors and employs the mathematical models construction to estimate the moving state of the target and the prediction of impact point.With the development of the trajectory estimation and prediction techniques in the space early warning system in recent years, especially the urgent demands in military affairs, research in the trajectory estimation and prediction techniques using a single satellite has been increasingly embedded and broadened.
This paper is based on the background of the single satellite’s trajectory estimation and prediction. With the synthetic employment of tools such as curve fitting, nonlinear regression analysis and kalman filtering, we have made a deep study into the profile matching estimation method of the boost phase of a target of based on the priori information. A new trajectory estimation method using dynamic equation is put forward, and a systematic precision index analysis for the trajectory estimation is presented. The main work and the innovation results of this paper consist of three parts as follows: The first: with an eye to build a new method based on the dynamic equation for the single satellite’s trajectory estimation and prediction, we make its dependency on the trajectory template reduced greatly. The second: make good use of the information we can easily acquired besides the full trajectory template to improve the single satellite’s trajectory estimation and prediction's precision, and analyzed the organization structure and the content of this information.
The early warning of a single satellite is a necessary process and an important part of the early warning system. As single satellite belong to the condition of incomplete surveys, the missile trajectory as well as the warning information is estimated based on early warning database. So it is very important to construct early warning database. In this paper, based on the missile characteristic of the essence analyzed, the method is established to obtain ballistic trajectory in order to make early warning of a single satellite possible. Therefore, the corresponding simulation computation has been carried on and shows the method in this paper feasible.
To give course head estimation early for ground-base radar system putting a tail on ballistic missile in early warning phase of single satellite, this paper establish a new method based on missile dynamics equation to obtain course head without prior trajectory template information supporting. The corresponding simulation computation shows the method’s correctness and value, and then a feasible method to ballistic missile head course estimation in early warning phase with space-based early warning system is given.
In this paper, based on the missile momentum equation, taking into account the basic physics’restrictions in missile’s manufacture and flight, a new method is established to obtain the trajectory course by early warning of single geosynchronous satellite, without prior information supporting. The corresponding simulation computation has been carried on and shows the method’s correctness and value in this paper.
The space-based early warning system is the national strategy early warning system's important component, the space-based system guides the ground early warning radar to carry on the missile’s following track, the guidance connection process is the missile defense core link, but it is unable to separate the warhead and the partner merely based on the radar echo characteristic information, this article proposed distinguishes the partner flies one algorithm based on the fuzzy clustering algorithm, the simulation computed result indicated that this article method has the high rate of accuracy and the very good practical value.
The astronautics oriented computer simulation has two remarkable characteristics: one is the high dynamics of the simulation scenario; the other is the huge quantity of computing. For developing an astronautics simulation platform and cluster computing environment (abbr. ASPCCE), five strategies are presented in this paper to meet the above two requirements in complex scenario simulating computing (such as constellation optimization, resource scheduling and space-based early warning et al): 1. To increase ASPCCE’s numerical calculation ability and controllability, distributed clusters are employed as the computing environment; 2. To enhance ASPCCE’s dynamic simulation adaptation, the development is based on the high level architecture and the agent technology; 3. To meet the complex imaging model and the scenario demonstration’s requirements, a new 3D rendering engine is designed; 4. To achieve ASPCCE’s expansibility, the combination of the plug-in framework and the scripting language are adopted; 5. To accelerate the development of ASPCCE, many existing open source software are integrated following the open source strategy, and the outcome will be an open source software as well.
单星弹道导弹参数估计的传统方法基于标准弹道模板先验信息的支持,但标准弹道模板先验信息获取困难,从而限制了此类方法的应用。本文在单颗预警卫星观测条件下,通过对弹道导弹参数估计问题的深入研究,突破传统算法严重依赖于标准弹道模板先验信息的局限,建立了基于单颗预警卫星观测弹道导弹参数估计的系列核心算法,较为系统的回答了在单颗预警卫星观测下,何种前提条件可以得到何种预警信息的问题。
本文首先建立了基于动力特征的单星弹道导弹参数估计算法,并重点研究了基于试验靶场飞行管道的动力特征提取与修正算法,基于该系列方法可逐步建立包含动力特征的先验信息库用于单星预警。基于动力特征的单星弹道导弹参数估计以弹道导弹的平面特性和弹道切割模型为基础,利用动力特征先验信息进行弹道导弹参数估计。动力特征提取与修正算法以试验靶场飞行管道信息为约束条件,基于单颗预警卫星平时观测提取导弹的动力特征,同时可利用同类型导弹的多次试验观测来对动力特征进行修正。
本文进一步深入研究了弹道导弹的主动段特征,建立了两种基于模型约束的单星弹道导弹参数估计算法,包括:基于攻角约束的参数估计和基于动量守恒的参数估计。此类方法在无需标准弹道模板或动力特征等先验信息支持的情况下,可以对来袭导弹给出较高精度的射向估计结果,能够有效引导地基预警系统接力跟踪,为天基预警系统的弹道导弹早期预警提供了一种可行的引导方案。基于攻角约束的弹道导弹参数估计算法从导弹的动力学模型出发,在弹道导弹主动段中后部分攻角接近于零的假设下,利用带有区间约束LMF算法进行参数估计。基于动量守恒的弹道导弹参数估计算法通过弹道导弹飞行的动量模型和半解析的遍历算法进行弹道导弹参数估计。
在上述研究基础上,本文还将基于动量守恒的参数估计算法推广至大椭圆预警星座,并对高轨预警系统复合星座的覆盖特性进行了研究,同时在保证估计精度的前提下对全球覆盖的高轨预警星座设计提出了建议。
为支持天地基预警的引导交接,本文提出了基于模糊聚类识别弹头伴飞物的新算法,解决了预警交接过程中关键的目标识别问题。该算法通过分析弹体分离的多目标飞行特性,构建弹头和伴飞物相对位置的模糊等价关系,基于空间点共线及对称性的模糊判定方法进行弹头识别。
最后,本文构建了面向天基预警的分布式仿真平台,能够有效的完成复杂预警场景的仿真与演示。仿真平台依靠分布式集群系统提高其计算能力,基于高层体系结构并利用主体技术增强其仿真的动态适应性,采用自主设计三维渲染引擎以满足复杂成像模型以及场景演示的需求,利用插件与脚本表示相结合实现其扩展性,并充分集成现有的开源软体以加速其开发。
The early warning of single satellite is a necessary process and an important part of the early warning system. As forepart warning, it is very important to give trajectory course information early to radar system for putting a tail on the missile. The trajectory estimation and prediction in the space early warning system is a typical application of data fusion technique in the target tracking field. It is an integrative data processing method, which synthesizes the information detected by sensors and employs the mathematical models construction to estimate the moving state of the target and the prediction of impact point.With the development of the trajectory estimation and prediction techniques in the space early warning system in recent years, especially the urgent demands in military affairs, research in the trajectory estimation and prediction techniques using a single satellite has been increasingly embedded and broadened.
This paper is based on the background of the single satellite’s trajectory estimation and prediction. With the synthetic employment of tools such as curve fitting, nonlinear regression analysis and kalman filtering, we have made a deep study into the profile matching estimation method of the boost phase of a target of based on the priori information. A new trajectory estimation method using dynamic equation is put forward, and a systematic precision index analysis for the trajectory estimation is presented. The main work and the innovation results of this paper consist of three parts as follows: The first: with an eye to build a new method based on the dynamic equation for the single satellite’s trajectory estimation and prediction, we make its dependency on the trajectory template reduced greatly. The second: make good use of the information we can easily acquired besides the full trajectory template to improve the single satellite’s trajectory estimation and prediction's precision, and analyzed the organization structure and the content of this information.
The early warning of a single satellite is a necessary process and an important part of the early warning system. As single satellite belong to the condition of incomplete surveys, the missile trajectory as well as the warning information is estimated based on early warning database. So it is very important to construct early warning database. In this paper, based on the missile characteristic of the essence analyzed, the method is established to obtain ballistic trajectory in order to make early warning of a single satellite possible. Therefore, the corresponding simulation computation has been carried on and shows the method in this paper feasible.
To give course head estimation early for ground-base radar system putting a tail on ballistic missile in early warning phase of single satellite, this paper establish a new method based on missile dynamics equation to obtain course head without prior trajectory template information supporting. The corresponding simulation computation shows the method’s correctness and value, and then a feasible method to ballistic missile head course estimation in early warning phase with space-based early warning system is given.
In this paper, based on the missile momentum equation, taking into account the basic physics’restrictions in missile’s manufacture and flight, a new method is established to obtain the trajectory course by early warning of single geosynchronous satellite, without prior information supporting. The corresponding simulation computation has been carried on and shows the method’s correctness and value in this paper.
The space-based early warning system is the national strategy early warning system's important component, the space-based system guides the ground early warning radar to carry on the missile’s following track, the guidance connection process is the missile defense core link, but it is unable to separate the warhead and the partner merely based on the radar echo characteristic information, this article proposed distinguishes the partner flies one algorithm based on the fuzzy clustering algorithm, the simulation computed result indicated that this article method has the high rate of accuracy and the very good practical value.
The astronautics oriented computer simulation has two remarkable characteristics: one is the high dynamics of the simulation scenario; the other is the huge quantity of computing. For developing an astronautics simulation platform and cluster computing environment (abbr. ASPCCE), five strategies are presented in this paper to meet the above two requirements in complex scenario simulating computing (such as constellation optimization, resource scheduling and space-based early warning et al): 1. To increase ASPCCE’s numerical calculation ability and controllability, distributed clusters are employed as the computing environment; 2. To enhance ASPCCE’s dynamic simulation adaptation, the development is based on the high level architecture and the agent technology; 3. To meet the complex imaging model and the scenario demonstration’s requirements, a new 3D rendering engine is designed; 4. To achieve ASPCCE’s expansibility, the combination of the plug-in framework and the scripting language are adopted; 5. To accelerate the development of ASPCCE, many existing open source software are integrated following the open source strategy, and the outcome will be an open source software as well.
引文
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