基于水资源高效利用的农业种植结构优化
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摘要
我国水资源总量虽多,但人均占有量偏少,并且水资源时空分布与需水量的时空要求不协调,供需矛盾日趋尖锐。西北地区是我国缺水最严重、生态环境最脆弱的地区之一,农业用水占总用水比例最大。因此该地区水资源的高效利用研究将对区域水资源持续利用、生态环境改善具有重要的意义。论文以西北内陆河流域中水资源短缺和生态环境恶化最严重的石羊河流域下游民勤县为例,通过对该县农业节水潜力的计算分析,从农业种植结构优化和灌溉制度优化等水资源管理角度,探索区域农业水资源的高效利用途径。论文的主要研究内容和结论如下:
(1)系统归纳分析了国内外关于农业种植结构优化和作物优化配水的研究进展,提出该领域的研究存在研究作物种类不全面以及多层优化模型建模相对比较复杂等问题。
(2)在对民勤水资源开发利用现状分析的基础上,提出了民勤农业水资源利用中存在着农业种植结构和灌溉制度不合理、生态用水得不到保障、水资源重复利用率高、水权矛盾突出等问题,需要通过农业水资源优化配置,实现水资源的高效持续利用。
(3)建立了区域农业节水潜力计算模型,提出了理论节水潜力和实际节水潜力的计算方法。理论节水潜力是现状年的灌溉实际用水量与当地农业灌溉需水量之差;民勤县农业节水潜力的计算结果表明,在50%、75%和95%水文年,分别只有1.0209、0.4208和0.4753亿m3的节水空间,但与《石羊河流域综合治理规划》要求尚有很大差距。说明传统的工程型节水模式已经不能解决当地水资源短缺的问题,远不能达到当地规划用水的要求。对于资源性缺水地区,还须通过调整农业种植结构和优化灌溉制度来实现水资源的高效利用。
(4)在前人研究种植结构和灌溉制度优化理论的基础上,建立了一个基于大系统递阶分析理论的包含灌溉制度优化和种植结构优化的两层水资源优化模型。第一层,是在基于Jensen模型的基础上建立了农作物灌溉制度优化模型,采用动态规划递阶逼近法(DPSA)求解;第二层基于非线性优化理论,建立了作物种植结构优化模型,采用非线性规划求解,并编制MATLAB程序实现优化算法。模型结构简洁,便于应用。
(5)民勤县75%水文年种植结构与灌溉制度优化结果表明,在灌溉面积不变的情况下,通过优化种植结构和灌溉制度,可以节水1.09亿m3,使当地农民人均增收1607元;在灌溉面积减少到《石羊河近期重点治理规划》要求的情况下,通过模型的优化计算,可以节约农业用水2.9353亿m3,比现状农业用水节约了39.1%,并且农民人均增收364.2元;与现状相比优化后的种植结构,增加了白兰瓜、辣椒和棉花等经济效益相对较高、灌水量相对较少的作物种植面积,减少了苜蓿、小麦、玉米和籽瓜等经济效益相对较低、灌水量相对较多的作物种植面积。
China’s total water resources are numerous, but the per capita consumption is less than normal, while the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is lack of coordination with the water demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly acute. Northwestern China is one of the regions whose water shortage is most serious and ecological environment is most vulnerable, and agricultural water use accounts for the largest proportion. Therefore, it has an important effect on sustainable use of water resources and ecological environment improvement to study how to efficiently use water resources in Northwestern China. From the perspective of water resources management, such as agricultural planting structure and irrigation system optimization, this paper explored the means of efficiently using agricultural water resources by calculation and analysis of agricultural water-saving potential , taking Minqin county as an example, and Minqin is in the downstream of Shiyang River Basin whose problems of water shortage and ecological environment deterioration are most serious. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1)Analysis research progress on the optimization of agricultural planting structure water distribution between crops at home and abroad systematically.Problems Proposed are researchs in this area are not comprehensive and the construction of multi-crop species modeling is relatively complex ect.
(2)Based on the analysis of the status of water resources development and use in Minqin county, it was proposed that in agriculture water use, there were some issues, just as Agricultural planting structure and irrigation system is unreasonable,ecological water can not be guaranteed, recycling rate of water resources is high, The contradiction between water rights is obvious,so further research of the agricultural water resources optimization is needed to realize the efficient and sustainable use of water resources.
(3)The calculation model of regional agricultural water saving potential was established, then the calculation methods of theoretical and practical water saving potential was got. Theoretical water saving potential is the difference between the actual irrigation water use and irrigation water requirements in current year. The calculation results of agricultural water saving potential in Minqin county showed that there are only 102.09,42.08 and 47.53 million cubic meters of water space in 50%, 75% and 95% hydrological year respectively,which is still a big gap to“the Comprehensive Restoration Plan of the Shiyang River Basin in the Recent Period”requirements.This shows that the problem of water shortage can not be solved by the traditional water-saving mode, and water requirements of local planning was not satisfied, so it is essential to adopt a new approach, adjusting agricultural planting structure and irrigation system to achieve water savings.
(4)Based on previous studies of planting structure and irrigation system optimization theory,a two-tier optimization model based on Large Scale System Theory is established.The first layer is an optimization model for crop irrigation system based on Jensen model. The second layer is an optimization model for crop planting structure based on nonlinear optimization theory.Water production functions of the main crops in Minqin are calculated by the first layer of the model. And then these functions are substituted into the second layer of the model, the optimizations of planting areas and irrigation rations is obtained by optimizing.And then the results are put into the first Layer of the model and the best optimized irrigation system for each crop is obtained. The structure of the model is simple and easy to use.
(5)By selecting the digital data in 75% level years, the satisfactory results are achieved through model calculation. The results show that in Minqin region, by optimizing the planting structure and irrigation system under the condition of irrigation area invariable, 109 million cubic meters water resources will be saved and the local farmers’income will increase by 1607 yuan. In response to the demand in the agriculture water saving proposed in“the Comprehensive Restoration Plan of the Shiyang River Basin in the Recent Period”, under the circumstance of planting area reduction, the agriculture water will save 293.53 million cubic meters, reduced by 39.102 percent than present situation, and also, the increased income of local farmers will be 364.2 yuan. Compared with the status quo,the optimal planting structure increased the acreage of Bailan melon, pepper and cotton etc,whose cost is relatively high and crop irrigation is relatively less, reduced the acreage of alfalfa, wheat, corn and watermelon and other crops wose cost is relatively low and crop irrigation is relatively high.
(1)系统归纳分析了国内外关于农业种植结构优化和作物优化配水的研究进展,提出该领域的研究存在研究作物种类不全面以及多层优化模型建模相对比较复杂等问题。
(2)在对民勤水资源开发利用现状分析的基础上,提出了民勤农业水资源利用中存在着农业种植结构和灌溉制度不合理、生态用水得不到保障、水资源重复利用率高、水权矛盾突出等问题,需要通过农业水资源优化配置,实现水资源的高效持续利用。
(3)建立了区域农业节水潜力计算模型,提出了理论节水潜力和实际节水潜力的计算方法。理论节水潜力是现状年的灌溉实际用水量与当地农业灌溉需水量之差;民勤县农业节水潜力的计算结果表明,在50%、75%和95%水文年,分别只有1.0209、0.4208和0.4753亿m3的节水空间,但与《石羊河流域综合治理规划》要求尚有很大差距。说明传统的工程型节水模式已经不能解决当地水资源短缺的问题,远不能达到当地规划用水的要求。对于资源性缺水地区,还须通过调整农业种植结构和优化灌溉制度来实现水资源的高效利用。
(4)在前人研究种植结构和灌溉制度优化理论的基础上,建立了一个基于大系统递阶分析理论的包含灌溉制度优化和种植结构优化的两层水资源优化模型。第一层,是在基于Jensen模型的基础上建立了农作物灌溉制度优化模型,采用动态规划递阶逼近法(DPSA)求解;第二层基于非线性优化理论,建立了作物种植结构优化模型,采用非线性规划求解,并编制MATLAB程序实现优化算法。模型结构简洁,便于应用。
(5)民勤县75%水文年种植结构与灌溉制度优化结果表明,在灌溉面积不变的情况下,通过优化种植结构和灌溉制度,可以节水1.09亿m3,使当地农民人均增收1607元;在灌溉面积减少到《石羊河近期重点治理规划》要求的情况下,通过模型的优化计算,可以节约农业用水2.9353亿m3,比现状农业用水节约了39.1%,并且农民人均增收364.2元;与现状相比优化后的种植结构,增加了白兰瓜、辣椒和棉花等经济效益相对较高、灌水量相对较少的作物种植面积,减少了苜蓿、小麦、玉米和籽瓜等经济效益相对较低、灌水量相对较多的作物种植面积。
China’s total water resources are numerous, but the per capita consumption is less than normal, while the spatial and temporal distribution of water resources is lack of coordination with the water demand, and the contradiction between supply and demand is becoming increasingly acute. Northwestern China is one of the regions whose water shortage is most serious and ecological environment is most vulnerable, and agricultural water use accounts for the largest proportion. Therefore, it has an important effect on sustainable use of water resources and ecological environment improvement to study how to efficiently use water resources in Northwestern China. From the perspective of water resources management, such as agricultural planting structure and irrigation system optimization, this paper explored the means of efficiently using agricultural water resources by calculation and analysis of agricultural water-saving potential , taking Minqin county as an example, and Minqin is in the downstream of Shiyang River Basin whose problems of water shortage and ecological environment deterioration are most serious. The main contents and conclusions are as follows:
(1)Analysis research progress on the optimization of agricultural planting structure water distribution between crops at home and abroad systematically.Problems Proposed are researchs in this area are not comprehensive and the construction of multi-crop species modeling is relatively complex ect.
(2)Based on the analysis of the status of water resources development and use in Minqin county, it was proposed that in agriculture water use, there were some issues, just as Agricultural planting structure and irrigation system is unreasonable,ecological water can not be guaranteed, recycling rate of water resources is high, The contradiction between water rights is obvious,so further research of the agricultural water resources optimization is needed to realize the efficient and sustainable use of water resources.
(3)The calculation model of regional agricultural water saving potential was established, then the calculation methods of theoretical and practical water saving potential was got. Theoretical water saving potential is the difference between the actual irrigation water use and irrigation water requirements in current year. The calculation results of agricultural water saving potential in Minqin county showed that there are only 102.09,42.08 and 47.53 million cubic meters of water space in 50%, 75% and 95% hydrological year respectively,which is still a big gap to“the Comprehensive Restoration Plan of the Shiyang River Basin in the Recent Period”requirements.This shows that the problem of water shortage can not be solved by the traditional water-saving mode, and water requirements of local planning was not satisfied, so it is essential to adopt a new approach, adjusting agricultural planting structure and irrigation system to achieve water savings.
(4)Based on previous studies of planting structure and irrigation system optimization theory,a two-tier optimization model based on Large Scale System Theory is established.The first layer is an optimization model for crop irrigation system based on Jensen model. The second layer is an optimization model for crop planting structure based on nonlinear optimization theory.Water production functions of the main crops in Minqin are calculated by the first layer of the model. And then these functions are substituted into the second layer of the model, the optimizations of planting areas and irrigation rations is obtained by optimizing.And then the results are put into the first Layer of the model and the best optimized irrigation system for each crop is obtained. The structure of the model is simple and easy to use.
(5)By selecting the digital data in 75% level years, the satisfactory results are achieved through model calculation. The results show that in Minqin region, by optimizing the planting structure and irrigation system under the condition of irrigation area invariable, 109 million cubic meters water resources will be saved and the local farmers’income will increase by 1607 yuan. In response to the demand in the agriculture water saving proposed in“the Comprehensive Restoration Plan of the Shiyang River Basin in the Recent Period”, under the circumstance of planting area reduction, the agriculture water will save 293.53 million cubic meters, reduced by 39.102 percent than present situation, and also, the increased income of local farmers will be 364.2 yuan. Compared with the status quo,the optimal planting structure increased the acreage of Bailan melon, pepper and cotton etc,whose cost is relatively high and crop irrigation is relatively less, reduced the acreage of alfalfa, wheat, corn and watermelon and other crops wose cost is relatively low and crop irrigation is relatively high.
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