国际金融危机对中国经济影响的统计测度研究
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摘要
2007年8月“次贷危机”开始席卷美国、欧盟和日本等世界主要金融市场，进而致使全球主要金融市场出现流动性危机，经过迅速地扩散和深化逐渐演变为自1929年大萧条以来全球最严重的一次国际金融危机。国际金融危机影响尚未消退，2009年12月希腊债务危机又开始显现。时至2010年，除了希腊之外欧洲的几个“明星经济体”也被卷入这场危机之中，欧元区内的这几个经济体面临着高涨的政府债务危机，迫切需要得到外部的救助。“欧洲主权债务危机”基本上属于“次贷危机”影响的延续。与以往有所不同，此次国际金融危机呈现出了一些新的特征，其影响范围之广、影响时间之长、影响程度之深、各个经济体政府干预动作之频繁都是之前的金融危机所未能比拟的。中国作为第二大经济体，目前正处于经济转型时期，经济增长方式转变和产业结构的调整优化则是近些年来中国经济改革发展的首要目标。国际金融危机的爆发和蔓延不仅给全球经济带来冲击，也给中国经济产生了较大的负面冲击与影响，不仅短期内显著影响GDP等一些宏观经济指标，更重要的是从中长期影响经济增长路径和产业结构的调整，而且这种影响将是隐性的、长期的，且具有时滞性特征。
本文首先系统梳理了金融危机传导经典理论，认为金融危机对经济的影响是一个渐进、动态的过程，而非一个静止的状态，而且这种影响是长期的。通过国际金融危机呈现出的特征和影响的表现，尤其是对实体经济产生了较大影响，从经济增长持续性理论和产业结构演变理论分析入手，认为危机对经济的影响效应通过资本、劳动、技术三个投入要素作用于经济系统内部，影响着经济增长的驱动力，进而影响着经济增长模式的演变，同时也影响着系统内部经济结构的调整，尤其是产业结构的演变。构建了基于经济增长驱动力、产业结构两个视角与危机影响弹性、影响路径两个维度相结合的国际金融危机影响效应测度理论分析框架。将研究思路设定为着力于中长期发展态势的考察，测度国际金融危机对经济增长路径的弹性影响效应、影响路径，以及对产业结构的弹性影响效应、影响路径，在测度结果的基础上对国际金融危机期间的刺激政策进行简要评价，并提出后续政策干预的逐步退出措施建议，以及促进经济可持续增长的宏观经济政策措施，以提升经济自身抵御国际金融危机冲击的能力。
其次，依据所构建的理论分析框架，从经济增长内部驱动力即生产要素出发，利用假定规模报酬不变的道格拉斯生产函数，选用状态空间统计模型，实证分析了国际金融危机通过资本、技术和劳动等生产要素对经济增长的时变弹性影响效应。结果表明，国际金融危机导致我国资本产出弹性系数呈现加速下降趋势，资本驱动型经济增长已难以实现经济可持续发展，同时全要素生产率呈现加速下降趋势，全要素生产率的变动对经济增长贡献率呈现负效应。
第三，本部分从国际金融危机对经济总量路径的影响视角，不但从理论上考察分析经济增长各生产要素的时滞变化，而且选用结构向量自回归模型，实证分析各个生产要素在受到国际金融危机影响下的响应时间以及响应强度的变化。研究表明，技术进步和人均资本对经济增长的作用影响时滞发生了较为明显的变化，其中经济增长对技术进步的响应时间达到缩短了一个季度，对人均资本的最大响应在时间上与国际金融危机前比较提前2个季度。技术进步对经济增长的贡献率相比国际金融危机前获得较大提升，而人均资本对经济增长的贡献率相较国际金融危机前却呈现出较大幅度的下降。
第四，基于产业结构理论视角，全面考虑危机与政策叠加效应对三大产业的增长路径的影响，运用干预分析模型对三大产业运行的偏离程度和影响进行实证分析，并对刺激干预政策进行简要评价。国际金融危机主要对第二、三产业产生了重要影响，经济刺激政策在短期内起到了较好的作用，对产业的拉动效应显著。
第五，从产业结构视角进一步分析国际金融危机对三大产业的弹性影响效应，模拟刻画三大产业对GDP弹性的中长期变动轨迹，运用基于岭回归的滚动回归模型进行实证分析，结果表明，国际金融危机提高了第一产业对GDP的弹性系数，降低了第二、三产业对GDP的弹性系数，表明单纯地加大对第二产业资本投入已然不能提升经济增长的质量，从而为探讨经济产业结构转型、实现经济的可持续发展提供经验性证明。
最后，以前面对国际金融危机影响效应的理论分析和对中国经济影响的实证测度结论为基础，考虑到随着国际金融危机影响效应的逐步消减，提出干预政策措施逐步退出的机制，此外，基于经济可持续性发展和经济结构的调整优化的宏观目标，提出中长期里中国宏观经济政策调控的措施和建议。
In August2007, the "subprime mortgage crisis” began sweeping the world's majorfinancial markets such as the U.S., EU and Japan, thereby resulting in a major globalfinancial market liquidity crisis. Spreading and deepening rapidly, it graduallyevolved into the most serious international financial crisis since the GreatDepression of1929. The international financial crisis has not receded, but the Greekdebt crisis began to appear in December2009. Except for Greece, several “stareconomies” in Europe had also been involved in this crisis by2010and thesecountries within the euro zone faced with rising government debt crisis which was inurgently need for external relief. The “European sovereign debt crisis” is basically acontinuation of the impact of the "subprime crisis". Different from the past, theinternational financial crisis is showing some new features. The sphere, duration andextent of the influence, as well as the government intervention frequency, are greaterthan any of the previous ones. As the second largest economy, China is now in aperiod of economic restructuring. The adjustment and optimization of economicgrowth patterns and industrial structure is the primary goal of China's economicreform and development in recent years. The outbreak and spread of the internationalfinancial crisis had not only impacted the global economy, but also had a greatnegative impact and influence on China's economy. It not only significantlyinfluenced GDP and other macroeconomic indicators in a short-term, but moreimportantly influenced the medium-and long-term economic growth path and theadjustment of industrial structure which will be a tacit, long-term process, and has atime delay characteristics.
This article first analyzes the classical theories of financial crisis transmissionand the writer believes that the impact of financial crisis is a growing, dynamicprocess rather than in a static condition. Besides, such kind of effect is a long-termone. Through the characteristics and effects of the international financial crisis,especially the great impact to the real economy, starting from the theories of economygrowth continuity and evolution of industrial structure, the author believes that thecrisis impacts the economy by three elements, capital, labor and technology, whichwork on the inner system of economy. They influence the driving force of economicgrowth, thereby affecting the evolution of economic growth path, as well as the adjustment of internal economic structure, especially the industrial structure. Theauthor constructs the theory framework of international financial crisis impactmeasure based on combining two perspectives-the driving force of economic growthand industrial structure, and two dimensions, flexibility and path of the effects. Theresearch ideas are set to focus on the investigation of medium-and long-termdevelopment trend, to measure the flexibility and path of the international financialcrisis’s impact on economic growth path, as well as those of the industrial structure.Based on the results of the measure, the author have briefly evaluated the stimuluspolicies during the international financial crisis and proposed advice for the gradualphasing out of follow-up policy interventions. In addition, the macroeconomicpolicies to enhance the sustainable economic development are given in order topromote the ability in withstanding the impact of international financial crisis.
Second, based on the theoretical analysis framework, the author starts from theinternal driving force, production factors. Utilizing the Douglas production functionwhich assumes constant returns to scale and choosing the statistical model of the statespace, the writer finishes an empirical analysis of the time varying elastic effects ofinternational financial crisis to the economic growth through production factors suchas capital, technology and labor. The results reveal that the international crisis hadaccelerated the downward trend of China’s capital output elasticity. It is difficult tomaintain sustainable economic development of the capital driven economic growth.At the same time, the total factor productivity appears to decline increasingly and itschange has a negative effect on the contribution rate of economic growth.
Third, in this section we start from the perspective of the impact of internationalfinancial crisis on the total path of economy. The writer not only investigates the timedelay changes of various factors of economic growth, but also applies the structuralvector auto-regression model to analyze the changes in various factors’ response timeand their intensity under the influences of international financial crisis. The studyshowed that obvious time delay changes existed in influence of technological progressand per capita capital on economic growth. The response time of economic growthover technical progress had shortened a quarter and the maximum response time overper capita capital was2quarters in advance of the international financial crisis.Compared with the time before the international financial crisis, the contribution rateof technical progress to economic development was much elevated while that of theper capita capital preached a substantial decline.
Fourth, based on the industrial structure theoretical perspective, taking full account of the combined effects of crisis and policies over the growing path of threemajor industries, the author did an empirical analysis about the degree of deviationand impact of three industries by intervention analysis model. Furthermore, thestimulus intervention policies were assessed briefly. The international financial crisishad a major impact on the secondary and tertiary industries. The economicstimulus policy, significantly pulling the industry, has played a good role in the shortterm.
Fifth, the writer further analyzed the flexibility of international financial crisis’seffect on three industries and simulated the elastic median-and long-term changetrack of three major industries over GDP. The rolling regression model based on ridgeregression was applied for empirical analysis. The results show that the internationalfinancial crisis had raised the elastic coefficient of primary industry over GDP andreduced that of the secondary and tertiary industry. It suggests that solely increasingthe capital investment of the secondary industry can no longer improve the quality ofeconomic growth. This serves as an empirical evidence to explore the economicindustrial restructuring and to achieve sustainable economic development.
Finally, on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the effects of internationalfinancial crisis and the empirical measure results of China’s economy, taking thegradual abatement of effects of international financial crisis into account, the authorput forward the mechanism to withdraw the intervention policies. Moreover, thewriter provides measures and suggestions to the median and long-term control ofChina’s macro-economic policies based on the macro-objectives of sustainableeconomic development and optimization of economic structure adjustment.
本文首先系统梳理了金融危机传导经典理论，认为金融危机对经济的影响是一个渐进、动态的过程，而非一个静止的状态，而且这种影响是长期的。通过国际金融危机呈现出的特征和影响的表现，尤其是对实体经济产生了较大影响，从经济增长持续性理论和产业结构演变理论分析入手，认为危机对经济的影响效应通过资本、劳动、技术三个投入要素作用于经济系统内部，影响着经济增长的驱动力，进而影响着经济增长模式的演变，同时也影响着系统内部经济结构的调整，尤其是产业结构的演变。构建了基于经济增长驱动力、产业结构两个视角与危机影响弹性、影响路径两个维度相结合的国际金融危机影响效应测度理论分析框架。将研究思路设定为着力于中长期发展态势的考察，测度国际金融危机对经济增长路径的弹性影响效应、影响路径，以及对产业结构的弹性影响效应、影响路径，在测度结果的基础上对国际金融危机期间的刺激政策进行简要评价，并提出后续政策干预的逐步退出措施建议，以及促进经济可持续增长的宏观经济政策措施，以提升经济自身抵御国际金融危机冲击的能力。
其次，依据所构建的理论分析框架，从经济增长内部驱动力即生产要素出发，利用假定规模报酬不变的道格拉斯生产函数，选用状态空间统计模型，实证分析了国际金融危机通过资本、技术和劳动等生产要素对经济增长的时变弹性影响效应。结果表明，国际金融危机导致我国资本产出弹性系数呈现加速下降趋势，资本驱动型经济增长已难以实现经济可持续发展，同时全要素生产率呈现加速下降趋势，全要素生产率的变动对经济增长贡献率呈现负效应。
第三，本部分从国际金融危机对经济总量路径的影响视角，不但从理论上考察分析经济增长各生产要素的时滞变化，而且选用结构向量自回归模型，实证分析各个生产要素在受到国际金融危机影响下的响应时间以及响应强度的变化。研究表明，技术进步和人均资本对经济增长的作用影响时滞发生了较为明显的变化，其中经济增长对技术进步的响应时间达到缩短了一个季度，对人均资本的最大响应在时间上与国际金融危机前比较提前2个季度。技术进步对经济增长的贡献率相比国际金融危机前获得较大提升，而人均资本对经济增长的贡献率相较国际金融危机前却呈现出较大幅度的下降。
第四，基于产业结构理论视角，全面考虑危机与政策叠加效应对三大产业的增长路径的影响，运用干预分析模型对三大产业运行的偏离程度和影响进行实证分析，并对刺激干预政策进行简要评价。国际金融危机主要对第二、三产业产生了重要影响，经济刺激政策在短期内起到了较好的作用，对产业的拉动效应显著。
第五，从产业结构视角进一步分析国际金融危机对三大产业的弹性影响效应，模拟刻画三大产业对GDP弹性的中长期变动轨迹，运用基于岭回归的滚动回归模型进行实证分析，结果表明，国际金融危机提高了第一产业对GDP的弹性系数，降低了第二、三产业对GDP的弹性系数，表明单纯地加大对第二产业资本投入已然不能提升经济增长的质量，从而为探讨经济产业结构转型、实现经济的可持续发展提供经验性证明。
最后，以前面对国际金融危机影响效应的理论分析和对中国经济影响的实证测度结论为基础，考虑到随着国际金融危机影响效应的逐步消减，提出干预政策措施逐步退出的机制，此外，基于经济可持续性发展和经济结构的调整优化的宏观目标，提出中长期里中国宏观经济政策调控的措施和建议。
In August2007, the "subprime mortgage crisis” began sweeping the world's majorfinancial markets such as the U.S., EU and Japan, thereby resulting in a major globalfinancial market liquidity crisis. Spreading and deepening rapidly, it graduallyevolved into the most serious international financial crisis since the GreatDepression of1929. The international financial crisis has not receded, but the Greekdebt crisis began to appear in December2009. Except for Greece, several “stareconomies” in Europe had also been involved in this crisis by2010and thesecountries within the euro zone faced with rising government debt crisis which was inurgently need for external relief. The “European sovereign debt crisis” is basically acontinuation of the impact of the "subprime crisis". Different from the past, theinternational financial crisis is showing some new features. The sphere, duration andextent of the influence, as well as the government intervention frequency, are greaterthan any of the previous ones. As the second largest economy, China is now in aperiod of economic restructuring. The adjustment and optimization of economicgrowth patterns and industrial structure is the primary goal of China's economicreform and development in recent years. The outbreak and spread of the internationalfinancial crisis had not only impacted the global economy, but also had a greatnegative impact and influence on China's economy. It not only significantlyinfluenced GDP and other macroeconomic indicators in a short-term, but moreimportantly influenced the medium-and long-term economic growth path and theadjustment of industrial structure which will be a tacit, long-term process, and has atime delay characteristics.
This article first analyzes the classical theories of financial crisis transmissionand the writer believes that the impact of financial crisis is a growing, dynamicprocess rather than in a static condition. Besides, such kind of effect is a long-termone. Through the characteristics and effects of the international financial crisis,especially the great impact to the real economy, starting from the theories of economygrowth continuity and evolution of industrial structure, the author believes that thecrisis impacts the economy by three elements, capital, labor and technology, whichwork on the inner system of economy. They influence the driving force of economicgrowth, thereby affecting the evolution of economic growth path, as well as the adjustment of internal economic structure, especially the industrial structure. Theauthor constructs the theory framework of international financial crisis impactmeasure based on combining two perspectives-the driving force of economic growthand industrial structure, and two dimensions, flexibility and path of the effects. Theresearch ideas are set to focus on the investigation of medium-and long-termdevelopment trend, to measure the flexibility and path of the international financialcrisis’s impact on economic growth path, as well as those of the industrial structure.Based on the results of the measure, the author have briefly evaluated the stimuluspolicies during the international financial crisis and proposed advice for the gradualphasing out of follow-up policy interventions. In addition, the macroeconomicpolicies to enhance the sustainable economic development are given in order topromote the ability in withstanding the impact of international financial crisis.
Second, based on the theoretical analysis framework, the author starts from theinternal driving force, production factors. Utilizing the Douglas production functionwhich assumes constant returns to scale and choosing the statistical model of the statespace, the writer finishes an empirical analysis of the time varying elastic effects ofinternational financial crisis to the economic growth through production factors suchas capital, technology and labor. The results reveal that the international crisis hadaccelerated the downward trend of China’s capital output elasticity. It is difficult tomaintain sustainable economic development of the capital driven economic growth.At the same time, the total factor productivity appears to decline increasingly and itschange has a negative effect on the contribution rate of economic growth.
Third, in this section we start from the perspective of the impact of internationalfinancial crisis on the total path of economy. The writer not only investigates the timedelay changes of various factors of economic growth, but also applies the structuralvector auto-regression model to analyze the changes in various factors’ response timeand their intensity under the influences of international financial crisis. The studyshowed that obvious time delay changes existed in influence of technological progressand per capita capital on economic growth. The response time of economic growthover technical progress had shortened a quarter and the maximum response time overper capita capital was2quarters in advance of the international financial crisis.Compared with the time before the international financial crisis, the contribution rateof technical progress to economic development was much elevated while that of theper capita capital preached a substantial decline.
Fourth, based on the industrial structure theoretical perspective, taking full account of the combined effects of crisis and policies over the growing path of threemajor industries, the author did an empirical analysis about the degree of deviationand impact of three industries by intervention analysis model. Furthermore, thestimulus intervention policies were assessed briefly. The international financial crisishad a major impact on the secondary and tertiary industries. The economicstimulus policy, significantly pulling the industry, has played a good role in the shortterm.
Fifth, the writer further analyzed the flexibility of international financial crisis’seffect on three industries and simulated the elastic median-and long-term changetrack of three major industries over GDP. The rolling regression model based on ridgeregression was applied for empirical analysis. The results show that the internationalfinancial crisis had raised the elastic coefficient of primary industry over GDP andreduced that of the secondary and tertiary industry. It suggests that solely increasingthe capital investment of the secondary industry can no longer improve the quality ofeconomic growth. This serves as an empirical evidence to explore the economicindustrial restructuring and to achieve sustainable economic development.
Finally, on the basis of the theoretical analysis of the effects of internationalfinancial crisis and the empirical measure results of China’s economy, taking thegradual abatement of effects of international financial crisis into account, the authorput forward the mechanism to withdraw the intervention policies. Moreover, thewriter provides measures and suggestions to the median and long-term control ofChina’s macro-economic policies based on the macro-objectives of sustainableeconomic development and optimization of economic structure adjustment.
引文
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