基于扩展Petri网的经营性公共基础设施TOT特许经营期决策研究
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摘要
经营性公共基础设施TOT特许经营期的确定一直是项目融资业界和理论研究关注的焦点,也是特许经营合约的一个核心条款和重要参数,同时是TOT项目招标和特许经营协议谈判的核心问题,特许经营期过长会使政府以及公众的利益受到损失,过短则会导致私营投资者无法得到预期的投资回报,有可能导致私营投资者面临破产,从而导致项目失败。现有特许经营期的确定主要有NPV法、博弈论两种,这两种方法无法对特许经营期进行动态评估,也无法给出特许经营期的可行域,对风险分担以及特许经营期的调整也很难提供可靠的依据,从而导致特许经营期决策只能停留在对以往类似项目现金流分析的基础上确定特许经营期,缺乏合理的风险分担机制和调整机制。为解决上述问题,本文对传统Petri网进行扩展,构建基于模糊Petri网的专家系统模型、着色随机Petri网的TOT特许经营期决策模型和基于Petri网的项目NPV模型,得出在风险作用下的特许经营期的概率分布,为特许双方确定特许经营期提供决策依据。
本研究以经营性公共基础设施TOT项目为研究对象,围绕TOT特许经营期决策问题,提出3个急需解决的问题,包括：项目风险因素和风险类别如何影响TOT特许经营期决策因素,项目风险因素和风险类别对决策目标的影响度是多少,以及在此影响关系下NPV的概率分布以及特许经营期的概率分布。
论文首先对特许经营期研究现状进行回顾,包括特许经营期决策方法、决策模型、决策因素。在对着色随机Petri网和模糊Petri网相关应用回顾的基础上,对扩展Petri网在项目管理、决策、市场营销、人工智能、风险评估、混杂系统等管理科学领域的应用进行回顾、总结。在风险分析与评估方面,首先对TOT项目的运作过程、决策因素进行分析,然后对公共基础设施TOT项目相关案例进行问题识别、分析,结合文献对风险的研究成果,以问题为导向,对TOT特许经营期风险因素进行识别、构建风险层次评价结构,总结出特许经营期核心问题与关键风险。
接着论文在风险识别、分析与评估的基础上,通过构建基于BP神经网络的TOT项目风险分析模型、基于模糊Petri网的专家系统模型,对TOT项目风险级别以及风险因素相对重要性进行分析,得出模糊判断矩阵,采用模糊层次分析法,分析风险因素对特许经营期的影响度。构建基于着色随机Petri网的TOT特许经营期决策模型和基于Petri网的项目NPV模型,分析基于风险的TOT项目现金流NCF以及净现值NPV的概率分布,从而得出特许经营期的可能取值与概率分布。该模型通过三个子模型的求解来实现,分别是：基于着色Petri网的TOT特许经营期风险评估模型、基于随机Petri网的现金流分析模型以及基于Petri网的项目NPV模型。第一个模型通过建立风险因素对决策因素影响过程模型,求解风险因素对特许经营期决策因素的影响率,以及风险因素的发生概率；第二个模型通过建立项目收入CI与项目支出CO相互影响过程,求解项目现金流的马尔科夫状态转移方程,从而确定项目收入CI与项目支出CO相互影响率。第三个模型通过建立项目NPV动态模型,反映了项目收入与项目支出在项目动态过程的相互影响情况,以及风险因素对项目收入与项目支出的影响情况。最后通过云南个旧-大屯公路隧道项目,在给出待定系数的基础上,通过计算机仿真模拟的方法,得出了项目NPV概率分布以及特许经营期的概率分布,对模型进行应用、验证,为决策提供依据。
Decision-making on TOT concession period of operating public infrastructure is the continued theoretical research focus in the field of project finance. It Is a core franchise agreement terms and important parameters, and the core issue in TOT project bidding and negotiating franchise agreements too.If the concession period is too long, it would hurt the interest of the host government and the public. Otherwise, the private investors can't get the expected return on investment; it would results the project failure at last. Existing concession period is determined mainly based on NPV, game theory and Monte Carlo, these three methods can not effectively work on risk NPV, they can not give a the reasonable scope of franchise concession, and hardly support to risk allocation and concession period adjustment, so they just stay in the past similar projects based on cash flow analysis, lacking of a reasonable risk-sharing mechanism and adjustment mechanism. Therefore, how the occurrence of risk events to determine the probability distribution of concession period, and how the occurrence of risk events to determine concession period, has been the key factor for TOT Project Financing.
The paper take operating public infrastructure as it's study object, surrounding the decision-making of TOT concession period, proposing three urgent questions: How project risk factors and risk categories to affect decision-making factors; How much project risk factors and risk categories to affect TOT concession period; And what is the probability distribution of NPV and the probability distribution of the concession period based on the above two.
Firstly, the paper review the current research on Decision-making of concession period, including decision-making methods, decision-making model, decision factors, such as product pricing, product sales, operating costs, discount rate, franchise value. And then review the applications of colored stochastic Petri nets and fuzzy Petri net, such as project management, organizational decision-making, marketing, artificial intelligence, risk assessment, and other areas of hybrid systems. In risk analysis and assessment, the paper analysis the Operating process and decision factors of TOT, and make a comprehensive analysis of operating public infrastructure projects, analysis all kinds of problems which happened in TOT project. And then identifies all kinds of project risks, builds the risk assessment hierarchical structure, summaries up the core problems and key risks of TOT based on ZOPP.
Secondly, the paper makes conclusion of the project risk level, the relative importance of risk factors by building TOT project risk analysis model based on BP neural network and fuzzy expert system model based on fuzzy Petri nets on the basic of risk identification, analysis and evaluation. And then, it analysis the impact of concession period affected by risk factors in use the way of fuzzy hierarchical analysis according to the fuzzy matrix.
The paper makes conclusion of the project risk level, the relative importance of risk factors by building TOT project risk analysis model based on BP neural network and fuzzy expert system model based on fuzzy Petri nets on the basic of risk identification, analysis and evaluation. And then, it analysis the impact of concession period affected by risk factors in use the way of fuzzy hierarchical analysis according to the fuzzy matrix.
Thirdly, the paper analysis the project NPV and it's probability distribution, and then makes conclusion of the most possible franchise period and it's probability distribution by building TOT concession period of decision-making model based on colored stochastic Petri nets and the NPV model based on Petri nets. These used three sub-models, they are the project risk assessment model of the concession period based on colored Petri nets, the cash flow analysis model based on stochastic Petri nets, and the NPV model based on Petri nets. The first one solves the results of the impact to decision-making factors of franchise period by risk factors and it's occurrence probability through building the process model of decision-making factors of TOT concession period by risk factors. The second one solves the Markov state transition equation of the project cash flows, and then determines the interaction rate between project's revenue CI and CO through their interaction process based on the project cash flow analysis model based on stochastic Petri nets. The third one reflects the interaction between the project's revenue and expenditure in the dynamic project operating process and the impact of them by project risk factors.
Finally, the paper obtains the NPV probability distribution and probability distribution of the concession period using computer simulation method in the case with Yunnan Gejiu to Datun highway tunnel. It takes reference for the decision-making of TOT concession period.
本研究以经营性公共基础设施TOT项目为研究对象,围绕TOT特许经营期决策问题,提出3个急需解决的问题,包括：项目风险因素和风险类别如何影响TOT特许经营期决策因素,项目风险因素和风险类别对决策目标的影响度是多少,以及在此影响关系下NPV的概率分布以及特许经营期的概率分布。
论文首先对特许经营期研究现状进行回顾,包括特许经营期决策方法、决策模型、决策因素。在对着色随机Petri网和模糊Petri网相关应用回顾的基础上,对扩展Petri网在项目管理、决策、市场营销、人工智能、风险评估、混杂系统等管理科学领域的应用进行回顾、总结。在风险分析与评估方面,首先对TOT项目的运作过程、决策因素进行分析,然后对公共基础设施TOT项目相关案例进行问题识别、分析,结合文献对风险的研究成果,以问题为导向,对TOT特许经营期风险因素进行识别、构建风险层次评价结构,总结出特许经营期核心问题与关键风险。
接着论文在风险识别、分析与评估的基础上,通过构建基于BP神经网络的TOT项目风险分析模型、基于模糊Petri网的专家系统模型,对TOT项目风险级别以及风险因素相对重要性进行分析,得出模糊判断矩阵,采用模糊层次分析法,分析风险因素对特许经营期的影响度。构建基于着色随机Petri网的TOT特许经营期决策模型和基于Petri网的项目NPV模型,分析基于风险的TOT项目现金流NCF以及净现值NPV的概率分布,从而得出特许经营期的可能取值与概率分布。该模型通过三个子模型的求解来实现,分别是：基于着色Petri网的TOT特许经营期风险评估模型、基于随机Petri网的现金流分析模型以及基于Petri网的项目NPV模型。第一个模型通过建立风险因素对决策因素影响过程模型,求解风险因素对特许经营期决策因素的影响率,以及风险因素的发生概率；第二个模型通过建立项目收入CI与项目支出CO相互影响过程,求解项目现金流的马尔科夫状态转移方程,从而确定项目收入CI与项目支出CO相互影响率。第三个模型通过建立项目NPV动态模型,反映了项目收入与项目支出在项目动态过程的相互影响情况,以及风险因素对项目收入与项目支出的影响情况。最后通过云南个旧-大屯公路隧道项目,在给出待定系数的基础上,通过计算机仿真模拟的方法,得出了项目NPV概率分布以及特许经营期的概率分布,对模型进行应用、验证,为决策提供依据。
Decision-making on TOT concession period of operating public infrastructure is the continued theoretical research focus in the field of project finance. It Is a core franchise agreement terms and important parameters, and the core issue in TOT project bidding and negotiating franchise agreements too.If the concession period is too long, it would hurt the interest of the host government and the public. Otherwise, the private investors can't get the expected return on investment; it would results the project failure at last. Existing concession period is determined mainly based on NPV, game theory and Monte Carlo, these three methods can not effectively work on risk NPV, they can not give a the reasonable scope of franchise concession, and hardly support to risk allocation and concession period adjustment, so they just stay in the past similar projects based on cash flow analysis, lacking of a reasonable risk-sharing mechanism and adjustment mechanism. Therefore, how the occurrence of risk events to determine the probability distribution of concession period, and how the occurrence of risk events to determine concession period, has been the key factor for TOT Project Financing.
The paper take operating public infrastructure as it's study object, surrounding the decision-making of TOT concession period, proposing three urgent questions: How project risk factors and risk categories to affect decision-making factors; How much project risk factors and risk categories to affect TOT concession period; And what is the probability distribution of NPV and the probability distribution of the concession period based on the above two.
Firstly, the paper review the current research on Decision-making of concession period, including decision-making methods, decision-making model, decision factors, such as product pricing, product sales, operating costs, discount rate, franchise value. And then review the applications of colored stochastic Petri nets and fuzzy Petri net, such as project management, organizational decision-making, marketing, artificial intelligence, risk assessment, and other areas of hybrid systems. In risk analysis and assessment, the paper analysis the Operating process and decision factors of TOT, and make a comprehensive analysis of operating public infrastructure projects, analysis all kinds of problems which happened in TOT project. And then identifies all kinds of project risks, builds the risk assessment hierarchical structure, summaries up the core problems and key risks of TOT based on ZOPP.
Secondly, the paper makes conclusion of the project risk level, the relative importance of risk factors by building TOT project risk analysis model based on BP neural network and fuzzy expert system model based on fuzzy Petri nets on the basic of risk identification, analysis and evaluation. And then, it analysis the impact of concession period affected by risk factors in use the way of fuzzy hierarchical analysis according to the fuzzy matrix.
The paper makes conclusion of the project risk level, the relative importance of risk factors by building TOT project risk analysis model based on BP neural network and fuzzy expert system model based on fuzzy Petri nets on the basic of risk identification, analysis and evaluation. And then, it analysis the impact of concession period affected by risk factors in use the way of fuzzy hierarchical analysis according to the fuzzy matrix.
Thirdly, the paper analysis the project NPV and it's probability distribution, and then makes conclusion of the most possible franchise period and it's probability distribution by building TOT concession period of decision-making model based on colored stochastic Petri nets and the NPV model based on Petri nets. These used three sub-models, they are the project risk assessment model of the concession period based on colored Petri nets, the cash flow analysis model based on stochastic Petri nets, and the NPV model based on Petri nets. The first one solves the results of the impact to decision-making factors of franchise period by risk factors and it's occurrence probability through building the process model of decision-making factors of TOT concession period by risk factors. The second one solves the Markov state transition equation of the project cash flows, and then determines the interaction rate between project's revenue CI and CO through their interaction process based on the project cash flow analysis model based on stochastic Petri nets. The third one reflects the interaction between the project's revenue and expenditure in the dynamic project operating process and the impact of them by project risk factors.
Finally, the paper obtains the NPV probability distribution and probability distribution of the concession period using computer simulation method in the case with Yunnan Gejiu to Datun highway tunnel. It takes reference for the decision-making of TOT concession period.
引文
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