气候要素变化和人类活动对延河流域径流泥沙影响的评估
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摘要
近几十年来，黄河的径流泥沙呈减少趋势，如何科学评估气候变化和人类活动对流域径流泥沙减少的作用与贡献，一直是当前研究的热点和难点。本论文以延河流域为研究区，利用1952—2008年流域主要气象站和水文站的实测资料以及三期土地利用数据（1975、1990和2000年），采用距平分析、Mann-Kendall非参数统计检验、Sen斜率估计等研究方法，分析气候水文要素57年来的变化趋势，定量评估降水变化和人类活动对径流泥沙的影响；研究了1975—2000年土地利用的时空动态变化特征，并在对SWAT模型参数率定和模型验证的基础上，探究了流域空间属性对SWAT模型模拟精度的影响，剖析了土地利用变化对流域径流泥沙影响的时空效应。论文主要研究结论如下：
（1）1952—2008年期间延河流域全年平均气温、最高气温及最低气温呈显著的上升趋势，上升幅度分别为0.038℃/a、0.017℃/a和0.038℃/a。不同季节以冬季的增温最为显著，其平均气温、最高气温及最低气温的增幅分别为0.053℃/a、0.029℃/a和0.070℃/a；春季的平均气温、最高气温及最低气温均呈显著的上升趋势；夏秋两季的平均气温和最低气温升高显著，但最高气温上升趋势不显著。流域年、季的平均气温和最低气温均呈极显著的上升趋势；而年、季的平均最高气温仅以全年、春季和冬季的上升趋势显著，且上升幅度均低于其相应的平均气温和最低气温。
（2）1952—2008年期间延河流域正常降水发生概率达80.7%，径流年型以偏枯和枯水年为主。年平均降水量呈减少趋势，变幅为-0.64mm/a，但降低趋势不显著，而平均径流量呈显著的减少趋势，变化幅度为-109.90×104m3/a；年平均降水量和径流量降低的突变分别发生在1995年和2005年。春季、夏季和秋季的降水量呈减少趋势，而冬季降水量呈显著增加趋势，增幅为0.18mm/a。春季的径流量呈微弱的减少趋势，而夏秋两季径流量减少显著，减幅分别为-83.83×104m3/a和-26.16×104m3/a；冬季径流量增加显著，变幅为15.62×104m3/a。与1952—1994年相比，1995—2008年期间的降水量和径流量分别减少11.1%和27.3%；通过分离降水变化和人类活动对径流的影响发现，二者对径流减少的贡献分别为46.2%和53.8%。
（3）延河流域汛期降水量、径流量和输沙量分别占全年平均量的71.8%，64.1%和98.6%。57年来，汛期的降水量呈下降趋势，突变大约发生在1990年，尤其是25—50mm降水频次和降水量呈显著的降低趋势。汛期径流量和输沙量呈显著的降低趋势，降幅分别为-99.2×104m3/a和-51.8×104t/a，二者降低的突变大约发生在2005年。与基准期（1952—1994年）相比，1995—2008年期间的汛期降水量、径流量及输沙量分别比基准期减少11.4%，35.1%和50.2%。通过区分1995—2008年期间降水变化和人类活动对汛期径流和输沙量变化的影响，表明降水变化对径流和输沙量减少的贡献分别为43.4%和35.9%，而人类活动对径流和输沙量减少的贡献分别为56.6%和64.1%。
（4）以延河流域的纸坊沟小流域为研究区，率定了SWAT模型模拟径流泥沙的敏感参数，评估了模型模拟日径流和泥沙的效果。结果表明，模拟效果的评价指标r2、NSE和PBAIS分别在0.79—0.82、0.53—0.62和-0.63—6.50%之间，均达到满意效果；但模型有低估径流峰值、泥沙量以及高估干旱季节径流量的倾向。同时，SWAT模型在杏子河和延河流域的应用表明，SWAT能够较好地模拟年径流和产沙量。
（5）采用数字滤波法分割了延河支流杏子河流域招安水文站1958—1974年的基流量，分析了DEM栅格分辨率和子流域划分对SWAT水文模拟的影响。结果表明，当DEM栅格分辨率在20—150m之间时，SWAT能较好地模拟年河川径流、地表径流、基流及输沙量，各水文要素模拟结果的r2和NSE分别在0.93和0.51以上，PBIAS在-9.06—24.20%之间；而当栅格分辨率大于150m时，各水文要素的模拟效果存在差异。子流域划分对流域产流模拟影响较小，而对产沙模拟影响较大。当子流域提取阈值在12—100km2之间时，不同的子流域划分对输沙量影响较小，若超出该阈值范围，模型会低估输沙量。因此，可针对不同的水文要素选择合适的DEM和子流域提取阈值，以提高模拟精度和运行效率。
（6）基于1975、1990及2000年的土地利用数据，分析了延河流域土地利用的时空变化特征。结果表明，草地面积不断减少，其减少主要是由于部分草地转变为农地和林地。利用SWAT模型模拟了土地利用动态变化的径流泥沙效应，发现与1975年相比，1990和2000年土地利用条件下的河川径流量分别增加了1.84%和5.67%，输沙量分别增加了3.36%和8.01%。基于SWAT划分的水文响应单元（HRU）分析不同土地利用类型的径流泥沙效应，由于农地和林地面积随时间而增加，二者对HRU的地表径流、河川径流及输沙总量的贡献也随时间相应增加，再加上农地侵蚀在所有土地利用类型中最为严重，流域径流量和输沙量随土地利用动态变化而增加；不同土地利用下剧烈侵蚀所占比例也随土地利用动态变化而增加。
The runoff and sediment of the Yellow River have been decreasing in recent decades.How to evaluate the impacts of the climate change and human activity on the reduction ofrunoff and sediment is not only a hot topic currently, but also a research challenge confrontedby hydrologist and environment science. Therefore, the Yanhe Watershed (7591km2), atributary to the middle reaches of the Yellow River, was selected as research area in this study.Based on the observed data of major meteorological stations and hydrological data of the lastcontrol station (Ganguyi) from1952-2008, the Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope method andother statistical methods were employed to detect the long-term trends of hydro-climaticvariables in the Yanhe Watershed for the last past57years, and the impacts of climaticvariable change and human activity on runoff and sediment were evaluated. This paper alsoanalyzed the land use structure and its dynamic changes of Yanhe Watershed during1975-2000. Moreover, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to thedifferent areas in the Yanhe Watershed to investigate the effect of DEM resolution andwatershed subdivision on hydrological simulation, and explore the temporal and spatialresponse of runoff and sediment to the land use dynamic changes. The main conclusions wereas follows:
(1) The annual mean temperature, annual mean maximum and minimum temperatureincreased significantly during1952-2008at the rate of0.038℃/a、0.017℃/a and0.038℃/a,respectively. The most evident warming occurred in winter, and its mean temperature, meanmaximum and minimum temperature exhibited significant increasing trends at the rate of0.053℃/a,0.029℃/a and0.070℃/a. The mean temperature, mean maximum and minimumtemperature in spring had significant increasing trends. Besides, the significant increasingtrends of mean temperature and minimum temperature were observed in spring and autumn,but the mean maximum temperature for annual, spring and autumn showed a slightlyincreasing trends with no statistical significance. The annual and seasonal mean temperatureand minimum temperature showed increasing trends with statistical significance (α=0.01).While only the significant increasing trend were observed in annual, spring and winter time series for maximum temperature, and the increasing magnitudes were lower thancorresponding mean temperature and minimum temperature.
(2) The normal precipitation year accounted for80.7%during1952-2008, and mostyears were lower and low flow years in the57years. Annual precipitation exhibited adecreasing trend in the study period at the rate of-0.64mm/a, with no statistical significance;while the annual streamflow had a significant downward trend at the rate of-109.90×104m3/a.The abrupt changes of annual precipitation and streamflow occurred in1995and2005,respectively. The seasonal precipitation of spring, summer and autumn had weak decreasingtrends during1952-2008, but a significant increasing trend was found in winter season at therate of0.18mm/a. In four seasons, a declining trend for streamflow was identified in spring,but the change was not significant; the downward trends were significant in summer andautumn at the rate of83.83×104m3/a and26.16×104m3/a, respectively; while the significantincreasing trend was detected in winter with the magnitude of15.62×104m3/a. Comparedwith the baseline period of1952-1994, the reduction of precipitation and streamflow in theperiod1995-2008was11.1%and27.3%, respectively; precipitation change contributed46.2%to the reduction of streamflow, while human activities resulted in53.8%of streamflowreduction.
(3) The precipitation, water discharge and sediment load in the flood season (from Juneto September) accounted for71.8%,64.1%and98.6%of the total annual amount,respectively. The precipitation exhibited a downward trend during the flood season, and theabrupt change occurred in1990, especially the precipitation frequency and events of25-50mm exhibited significant downward trends in past57years. The water discharge and sedimentload in the flood season exhibited significant decreasing trends at the rate of-99.2×104m3/aand-51.8×104t/a, respectively, and the abrupt change occurred around2005. Taking theperiod of1952-1994as the reference period, the reductions of the flood-season precipitation,water discharge and sediment load during1995-2008were11.4%,35.1%and50.2%,respectively. The decrease in precipitation was responsible for43.4%and35.9%of thedecrease in the water discharge and sediment load from1995-2008, respectively. While thecontribution of human activity to the decreasing trends in the water discharge and sedimentload were56.6%and64.1%, respectively.
(4) The sensitive parameters of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulaterunoff and sediment were calibrated, and the model performance of SWAT on simulating dailyrunoff and sediment in the Zhifanggou watershed was assessed. The result showed that theevaluation statistics for the runoff and sediment simulation showed that the model performedwell; the values of r2ranged from0.79to0.82, the values for NSE ranged from0.53to0.62, and the values for PBIAS ranged from-0.63%to6.50%for the calibration and validationperiods. However, the calibrated model tended to underpredict runoff and sediment duringhigh-flow season and overestimate the flow in the dry season. In addition, the SWAT couldsimulate annual runoff and sediment satisfactorily in the Xingzihe and Yanhe watershed.
(5) The digital filter method was used to separate base flow from the measuredstreamflow data at the Zhao’an hydrological station from1958to1974, and the impacts ofDEM resolution and watershed subdivision on the hydrological simulation were investigated.The results showed that the DEMs with fine resolution (i.e.,20to150m) were required toachieve satisfactory accuracy (R2>0.93, NSE>0.51,-9.06% (6) The land use dynamic characteristics of Yanhe Watershed were investigated by usingthe land use data in1975,1990and2000. The result showed that the grassland wasdecreasing because some part of grassland converted into cultivated land and woodland. Inaddition, SWAT model was applied to the Yanhe Watershed to study the effect of land usedynamic changes on the runoff and sediment. Compared with land use data in1975, thesimulated streamflow in1990and2000were increased by1.84%and5.67%, and thesimulated sediment load were increased by3.36%and8.01%, respectively. The hydrologicalresponses of HRU to the different land use types were also analyzed. Due to the increase ofcultivated land and woodland, the total surface runoff, streamflow and sediment load wereincreased with the land use dynamic changes, especially, the cultivated land contributed thelargest amount of sediment among different land use types. Moreover, it was found that thesevere soil erosion which was classified by the Standard of Soil Erosion Intensity wasincreasing with the land use dynamic changes.
（1）1952—2008年期间延河流域全年平均气温、最高气温及最低气温呈显著的上升趋势，上升幅度分别为0.038℃/a、0.017℃/a和0.038℃/a。不同季节以冬季的增温最为显著，其平均气温、最高气温及最低气温的增幅分别为0.053℃/a、0.029℃/a和0.070℃/a；春季的平均气温、最高气温及最低气温均呈显著的上升趋势；夏秋两季的平均气温和最低气温升高显著，但最高气温上升趋势不显著。流域年、季的平均气温和最低气温均呈极显著的上升趋势；而年、季的平均最高气温仅以全年、春季和冬季的上升趋势显著，且上升幅度均低于其相应的平均气温和最低气温。
（2）1952—2008年期间延河流域正常降水发生概率达80.7%，径流年型以偏枯和枯水年为主。年平均降水量呈减少趋势，变幅为-0.64mm/a，但降低趋势不显著，而平均径流量呈显著的减少趋势，变化幅度为-109.90×104m3/a；年平均降水量和径流量降低的突变分别发生在1995年和2005年。春季、夏季和秋季的降水量呈减少趋势，而冬季降水量呈显著增加趋势，增幅为0.18mm/a。春季的径流量呈微弱的减少趋势，而夏秋两季径流量减少显著，减幅分别为-83.83×104m3/a和-26.16×104m3/a；冬季径流量增加显著，变幅为15.62×104m3/a。与1952—1994年相比，1995—2008年期间的降水量和径流量分别减少11.1%和27.3%；通过分离降水变化和人类活动对径流的影响发现，二者对径流减少的贡献分别为46.2%和53.8%。
（3）延河流域汛期降水量、径流量和输沙量分别占全年平均量的71.8%，64.1%和98.6%。57年来，汛期的降水量呈下降趋势，突变大约发生在1990年，尤其是25—50mm降水频次和降水量呈显著的降低趋势。汛期径流量和输沙量呈显著的降低趋势，降幅分别为-99.2×104m3/a和-51.8×104t/a，二者降低的突变大约发生在2005年。与基准期（1952—1994年）相比，1995—2008年期间的汛期降水量、径流量及输沙量分别比基准期减少11.4%，35.1%和50.2%。通过区分1995—2008年期间降水变化和人类活动对汛期径流和输沙量变化的影响，表明降水变化对径流和输沙量减少的贡献分别为43.4%和35.9%，而人类活动对径流和输沙量减少的贡献分别为56.6%和64.1%。
（4）以延河流域的纸坊沟小流域为研究区，率定了SWAT模型模拟径流泥沙的敏感参数，评估了模型模拟日径流和泥沙的效果。结果表明，模拟效果的评价指标r2、NSE和PBAIS分别在0.79—0.82、0.53—0.62和-0.63—6.50%之间，均达到满意效果；但模型有低估径流峰值、泥沙量以及高估干旱季节径流量的倾向。同时，SWAT模型在杏子河和延河流域的应用表明，SWAT能够较好地模拟年径流和产沙量。
（5）采用数字滤波法分割了延河支流杏子河流域招安水文站1958—1974年的基流量，分析了DEM栅格分辨率和子流域划分对SWAT水文模拟的影响。结果表明，当DEM栅格分辨率在20—150m之间时，SWAT能较好地模拟年河川径流、地表径流、基流及输沙量，各水文要素模拟结果的r2和NSE分别在0.93和0.51以上，PBIAS在-9.06—24.20%之间；而当栅格分辨率大于150m时，各水文要素的模拟效果存在差异。子流域划分对流域产流模拟影响较小，而对产沙模拟影响较大。当子流域提取阈值在12—100km2之间时，不同的子流域划分对输沙量影响较小，若超出该阈值范围，模型会低估输沙量。因此，可针对不同的水文要素选择合适的DEM和子流域提取阈值，以提高模拟精度和运行效率。
（6）基于1975、1990及2000年的土地利用数据，分析了延河流域土地利用的时空变化特征。结果表明，草地面积不断减少，其减少主要是由于部分草地转变为农地和林地。利用SWAT模型模拟了土地利用动态变化的径流泥沙效应，发现与1975年相比，1990和2000年土地利用条件下的河川径流量分别增加了1.84%和5.67%，输沙量分别增加了3.36%和8.01%。基于SWAT划分的水文响应单元（HRU）分析不同土地利用类型的径流泥沙效应，由于农地和林地面积随时间而增加，二者对HRU的地表径流、河川径流及输沙总量的贡献也随时间相应增加，再加上农地侵蚀在所有土地利用类型中最为严重，流域径流量和输沙量随土地利用动态变化而增加；不同土地利用下剧烈侵蚀所占比例也随土地利用动态变化而增加。
The runoff and sediment of the Yellow River have been decreasing in recent decades.How to evaluate the impacts of the climate change and human activity on the reduction ofrunoff and sediment is not only a hot topic currently, but also a research challenge confrontedby hydrologist and environment science. Therefore, the Yanhe Watershed (7591km2), atributary to the middle reaches of the Yellow River, was selected as research area in this study.Based on the observed data of major meteorological stations and hydrological data of the lastcontrol station (Ganguyi) from1952-2008, the Mann-Kendall test, Sen slope method andother statistical methods were employed to detect the long-term trends of hydro-climaticvariables in the Yanhe Watershed for the last past57years, and the impacts of climaticvariable change and human activity on runoff and sediment were evaluated. This paper alsoanalyzed the land use structure and its dynamic changes of Yanhe Watershed during1975-2000. Moreover, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to thedifferent areas in the Yanhe Watershed to investigate the effect of DEM resolution andwatershed subdivision on hydrological simulation, and explore the temporal and spatialresponse of runoff and sediment to the land use dynamic changes. The main conclusions wereas follows:
(1) The annual mean temperature, annual mean maximum and minimum temperatureincreased significantly during1952-2008at the rate of0.038℃/a、0.017℃/a and0.038℃/a,respectively. The most evident warming occurred in winter, and its mean temperature, meanmaximum and minimum temperature exhibited significant increasing trends at the rate of0.053℃/a,0.029℃/a and0.070℃/a. The mean temperature, mean maximum and minimumtemperature in spring had significant increasing trends. Besides, the significant increasingtrends of mean temperature and minimum temperature were observed in spring and autumn,but the mean maximum temperature for annual, spring and autumn showed a slightlyincreasing trends with no statistical significance. The annual and seasonal mean temperatureand minimum temperature showed increasing trends with statistical significance (α=0.01).While only the significant increasing trend were observed in annual, spring and winter time series for maximum temperature, and the increasing magnitudes were lower thancorresponding mean temperature and minimum temperature.
(2) The normal precipitation year accounted for80.7%during1952-2008, and mostyears were lower and low flow years in the57years. Annual precipitation exhibited adecreasing trend in the study period at the rate of-0.64mm/a, with no statistical significance;while the annual streamflow had a significant downward trend at the rate of-109.90×104m3/a.The abrupt changes of annual precipitation and streamflow occurred in1995and2005,respectively. The seasonal precipitation of spring, summer and autumn had weak decreasingtrends during1952-2008, but a significant increasing trend was found in winter season at therate of0.18mm/a. In four seasons, a declining trend for streamflow was identified in spring,but the change was not significant; the downward trends were significant in summer andautumn at the rate of83.83×104m3/a and26.16×104m3/a, respectively; while the significantincreasing trend was detected in winter with the magnitude of15.62×104m3/a. Comparedwith the baseline period of1952-1994, the reduction of precipitation and streamflow in theperiod1995-2008was11.1%and27.3%, respectively; precipitation change contributed46.2%to the reduction of streamflow, while human activities resulted in53.8%of streamflowreduction.
(3) The precipitation, water discharge and sediment load in the flood season (from Juneto September) accounted for71.8%,64.1%and98.6%of the total annual amount,respectively. The precipitation exhibited a downward trend during the flood season, and theabrupt change occurred in1990, especially the precipitation frequency and events of25-50mm exhibited significant downward trends in past57years. The water discharge and sedimentload in the flood season exhibited significant decreasing trends at the rate of-99.2×104m3/aand-51.8×104t/a, respectively, and the abrupt change occurred around2005. Taking theperiod of1952-1994as the reference period, the reductions of the flood-season precipitation,water discharge and sediment load during1995-2008were11.4%,35.1%and50.2%,respectively. The decrease in precipitation was responsible for43.4%and35.9%of thedecrease in the water discharge and sediment load from1995-2008, respectively. While thecontribution of human activity to the decreasing trends in the water discharge and sedimentload were56.6%and64.1%, respectively.
(4) The sensitive parameters of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to simulaterunoff and sediment were calibrated, and the model performance of SWAT on simulating dailyrunoff and sediment in the Zhifanggou watershed was assessed. The result showed that theevaluation statistics for the runoff and sediment simulation showed that the model performedwell; the values of r2ranged from0.79to0.82, the values for NSE ranged from0.53to0.62, and the values for PBIAS ranged from-0.63%to6.50%for the calibration and validationperiods. However, the calibrated model tended to underpredict runoff and sediment duringhigh-flow season and overestimate the flow in the dry season. In addition, the SWAT couldsimulate annual runoff and sediment satisfactorily in the Xingzihe and Yanhe watershed.
(5) The digital filter method was used to separate base flow from the measuredstreamflow data at the Zhao’an hydrological station from1958to1974, and the impacts ofDEM resolution and watershed subdivision on the hydrological simulation were investigated.The results showed that the DEMs with fine resolution (i.e.,20to150m) were required toachieve satisfactory accuracy (R2>0.93, NSE>0.51,-9.06%
引文
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