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一次华北秋季暴雨的斜压过程分析及诊断研究
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摘要
本文用MM5模式对2003年10月9日~12日发生在华北及环渤海地区的大暴雨进行了数值模拟,诊断分析了暴雨发生期间的大尺度流场形势、水汽输送及收支,次天气尺度的锋生及锋面斜压过程、低层湿位涡的分布,中尺度强对流系统的热量及水汽收支特征等,还对暴雨区域动能的收支状况做了计算,得到以下结论:
     1)暴雨区上空的对流层高层处在反气旋性的辐散气流控制下,低层北方有强干冷空气南下,南方有强的暖湿气流向北输送,在华北地区强烈交绥,有“鞍”型场生成,并有暖切变线和倒槽;副热带高压及其南侧的低压系统对暴雨的落区有重要作用。
     2)低空急流对水汽的输送特征明显,整个暴雨期间低空总有湿舌特征,强降水主要出现在位于湿舌西北侧的干锋区;从整层平均而言,降水的水汽主要是来源于西南气流和副热带洋面上的低压系统的输送。
     3)结合此次暴雨个例,本文在前人工作基础上提出了华北暴雨期间斜压系统发展的概念模型,一定程度上揭示了此次暴雨的主要产生机制——高空高纬高位涡区下沉、低空湿位涡的爬升和干空气的侵入。高位涡的空气下沉到强斜压区,会使得系统垂直涡度急剧增大,系统发展强盛;低空湿位涡向上爬升也会激发系统涡度的剧烈增大;干侵入增大了降水系统与周围环境的热力对比,促进对流系统的发展。
     4)此次暴雨表现出典型的锋面特征,中尺度系统降水特征明显,视热源和视水汽汇在中尺度系统中分布相似,说明凝结潜热释放是系统的主要热源;中尺度系统在中低层加热明显,高层有冷却作用,利于层结不稳定的建立。
A heavy rainstorm case, occurring at North-China and Circum-Bohai-Sea Region during 9th to 12th in October 2003, was simulated here. It diagnostically analyzes large-scale flow pattern, water vapor transport/budget, hypo-synoptic-scale frontogenesis/frontal baroclinic process, and the characteristic of heat/vapor budget in meso-scale strongly convective system. Additionally, regional average budget of kinetic energy was also calculated. The conclusions are as following:
     1) Upper level of the troposphere above the precipitating region is dominated by anti-cyclonic divergent flow. Cold-dry-mass from the north and warm-moist-mass from the south converge intensively at the lower level of this region which induces saddle-pattern-disposition, warm shear and inverse trough. Sub-tropical high and the low-pressure system south of the sub-tropical high play an important role on the rainfall case.
     2) Low Level Jet (LLJ) transports vapor significantly, and there is always a moist-tongue, northwest of which the heavy rainfall occurs. As far as the whole troposphere layer is concerned, vapor mainly comes from the southwestern current and the low-pressure system on the sub-tropical ocean.
     3) Concerning this case, it advances an conceptive model of baroclinic systems development during the North-China rainstorm on former basis. The model unveils some main mechanisms of the case including potential vorticity (PV) descending from upper-level and high latitude, low-level MPV climbing up and the dry intrusion. When air mass carrying high PV descends to strong baroclinic zone, vertical vorticity of the convective system increases rapidly which leads to vigorous development of the system. MPV climbing up also activates the system’s vorticty increasing acutely. Dry intrusion boosts up thermal contrast of the system and environmental field, which accelerates convection of the system.
     4) This case has typical frontal characteristic, and there exist significant meso-scale precipitating systems. Apparent-heat-source and apparent-moist-sink in the meso-scale system have similar distribution, and it means that latent heat release is primary heat source of the system. At the mid- & low-level the system is heated and at the upper level it is cooled, which leads to unstable stratification.
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