北半球温带气旋的气候学及其变率研究
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摘要
温带气旋是影响中高纬度地区大范围天气变化的重要天气系统之一，能够造成明显或激烈的天气现象和灾害，因此研究温带气旋的气候特征、活动规律和变率趋势对理解天气、气候变化以及极端气候事件具有重要的科学和实际意义。本文在温带气旋的客观判定和追踪方法的基础上，利用欧洲中心的再分析数据ERA40统计分析了北半球和东亚地区温带气旋的气候态及其变率问题，并从大尺度环流指数和大气的斜压性方面讨论了温带气旋和风暴轴20世纪后44年变化的可能原因。之后检验了国际耦合模式比较计划5（CMIP5）最新的6个全球气候系统模式（BCC-CSM1.1，CanESM2，GFDL-ESM2M，HadGEM2-CC，MPI-ESM-LR和NorESM1-M）对北半球温带气旋和风暴轴的模拟能力。并利用这6个气候系统模式的模拟结果预估了未来RCP4.5浓度路径下北半球温带气旋和风暴轴的可能变化趋势。主要结论概括如下：
（1）基于海平面气压场，气旋自身移动外推和局地引导气流的温带气旋客观判定和追踪方法能够识别80%以上的真实气旋过程，并能够成功地再现东亚地区温带气旋特性气候态的空间分布和频率分布。通过聚类分析方法获得了影响东亚地区的6条主要气旋路径，其中4条路径对我国的影响较大，并且很可能和我国春季沙尘暴，冬季暴雪，强降水和海上大风等极端天气现象有着密切的关系。
（2）揭示了20世纪后半叶北半球温带气旋过程数北增南减的线性变化趋势，这在一定程度上体现了北半球风暴路径有着向极地偏移的变化特征。北极涛动指数（AO）同北半球较高纬度和较低纬度温带气旋过程数分别有较强的正相关和负相关，表明极涡加强和收缩时北半球温带气旋活动向极地偏移，而极涡减弱和南移时，气旋活动向低纬度偏移。发现了北大西洋和北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化与同地区温带气旋活动密切相关。北大西洋风暴轴有着同北半球一致的向极地移动的趋势，而北太平洋风暴轴则相反地向赤道偏移。两大风暴轴对应的400hPa大气斜压性指数的同位相变化很可能是分别造成了北太平洋地区气旋活动和风暴轴的南移增强以及北大西洋地区气旋活动和风暴轴的北移增强的一个原因。
（3）研究发现东亚北方温带气旋过程数20世纪80年代中期之后显著减少，并伴随着源地的北移。这主要的原因是80年代之后该地区大气斜压性减弱，强斜压区向高纬度移动造成的。南方气旋过程数20世纪后44年整体线性增加，原因则是平均位于40-55°N的北太平洋风暴路径有向低纬度偏移的变化趋势，从而导致了西北太平洋气旋源地的南移。
（4）CMIP5的6个全球气候系统模式对温带气旋特性的空间分布和频率分布的气候态模拟能力好于对时间序列的模拟能力。模拟的气旋过程数偏少，气旋生命期的模拟值普遍偏长，加深速率的模拟值偏慢。BCC-CSM1.1能够模拟出北半球温带气旋活动北移的变化特征，至少4个模式能够较好地体现出北半球温带气旋气压值的线性变化趋势。
（5）利用6个全球气候系统模式预估发现，相对于20世纪后50年来说，RCP4.5浓度路径下的2053-2099时段北半球温带气旋各特征变化的显著性基本都大于2006-2052时段。虽然各模式的模拟结果存在一定的差异性，但共同模拟出了至21世纪末北半球大范围地区的气旋生成和活动将减少，较低纬度减少的更显著。另外，过半的模式模拟结果显示未来北半球气旋中心气压将有降低的趋势。大多数的模式模拟结果得到北大西洋风暴轴未来将继续向极地活动偏移，但强度主要将减弱；过半的模式模拟结果为北太平洋风暴轴也将向极地偏移，强度变化则随季节的不同而不同。东亚地区温带气旋的变化同北半球的情况非常相似和一致，无论是南方气旋还是北方气旋，气旋生成和活动频率将显著减少，气旋中心气压值将显著降低。
（6）6个模式的模拟结果均显示对流层中层斜压区未来将向高层和高纬度扩展，对流层高层急流轴向高层移动的变化趋势，南半球的变化更为显著。斜压区的变化在某种程度上体现了风暴轴的变化，因此这从另一方面支持了论文中两大洋风暴路径未来可能向极地偏移的结论。北半球斜压区和风暴轴向高纬度的移动抵消了高纬度地面气旋数目的减少，这也解释了未来北半球较低纬度地面气旋数目比较高纬度地区减少更为显著的原因。
Extratropical cyclone (EC) is one of the important synoptic systems which affect weathervariability over a wide area of mid and high latitudes, and it can cause significant or intenseweather phenomena and disasters. As a result, it has the scientific and practical significanceto do some research on climate characteristics, activity law and variability trends ofextratropical cyclones (ECs) for understanding weather and climate change and extremeclimate events. Based on an objective detecting and tracking method of ECs, EuropeanCenter for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) reanalysis data ERA40are appliedto statistically analyze climatology and variations of ECs over the North Hemisphere andEast Asia, as well as storm tracks over the North Hemisphere. The possible reasons aboutvariations of EC and storm track during the last44years in20th century were discussed interms of large scale circulation index and atmospheric baroclinicity. After that, the simulatedcapability of6global climate system models (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-CC, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM1-M), released latterly by Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase5(CMIP5), about ECs over the North Hemisphere was tested.At last, the future possible variation tends of ECs and storm track over the North Hemisphereunder RCP4.5were estimated by using these6climate system models. The main conclusionsummed up as follows:
(1) Based on sea level pressure field, cyclone movement extrapolation and local guideairflow, the objective method for detecting and tracking ECs can track more than80%realcyclone processes, and successfully represent the spatial and frequency distribution ofcyclones’ climatological features. A clustering analysis produced6major cyclone trajectories,among which4trajectories would have an affect on China, and have important connectionswith severe weather/climate phenomena such as spring sand storms, winter blizzard, heavyrainfall and offshore wind.
(2) A linear increase trend of EC process numbers in the north and decrease in south partof North Hemisphere for the second half of20th century was revealed, which reflected thepoleward shift of the storm track in the North Hemisphere. The cyclone process number had anegative and positive correlation with Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in the lower and higherlatitude region respectively, indicating that ECs of the North Hemisphere migrate to the pole when polar vortex strengthens and shrinks, while ECs migrate to the lower latitudes whenpolar vortex weakens and moves southward. It was found that the interdecadal variations ofstorm tracks over North Pacific and North Atlantic had a close relationship with their ECactivities. Storm track over North Atlantic had a poleward shift, which was consistent withthe counterparts of the North Hemisphere, while storm track over North Pacific had anequatorward shift. The same phase variations of atmospheric baroclinity on400hPa levelmight be one reason for the southward migration and enhancement of ECs and storm trackover North Pacific; northward shift and enhancement over North Atlantic.
(3) Accompanied by a northward shift of cyclone source region, the north cyclonenumber in East Asia indicated obvious decrease trend after the mid1980s. This is becauseatmospheric baroclinicity weakened in this region, and the strong baroclinicity zone moved tohigher latitudes. There was a linear increased trend of the south cyclone number during thelast44years of20th century, mainly because North Pacific storm track, located in40-55°N,had a shift trend to lower latitude, resulting in the southward migration of the NorthwestPacific cyclone formation region.
(4) The simulation capability for space and frequency distribution of cyclones’climatological features was better than that for time series by6global climate system modelsof CMIP5. For simulations, Cyclone processes were fewer, life spans were longer, anddeepen rates were slower. The models of BCC-CSM1.1can represent northward shift of ECsactivities, and at least4models could reflect linear change trends of ECs’ pressure over theNorth Hemisphere
(5) By using the six global climate system models for assessment, it was discovered thatthe changes of ECs’ features under RCP4.5during2053-2099period would be moreremarkable than that during2006-2052period compared with20th century. The models’simulation results had some differences, however, we found an agreement of reducedcyclogenesis and cyclone activity over large North Hemisphere region at the end of21thcentury, especially in the lower latitudes. Moreover, more than half of the models showed thatcyclone center pressure over the North Hemisphere would decline in the future. Most modelsestimated that North Atlantic storm track would keep for moving poleward, but withweakened strength; more than half of the models forecasted that North Pacific storm trackwould also move northward with inconsistent strength changes in different seasons. Changesof East Asia cyclones were similar and consistent with that in the North Hemisphere. Nomatter north or south cyclones, the formation and activity frequency would decrease, andcyclone pressure would decline significantly.
(6) It was found in all6models that the baroclinic zone on middle-troposphere wouldexpand to higher level and higher latitudes, and jet stream axis on top-troposphere would move to higher level in the future under RCP4.5. These changes would be more notable in theSouth Hemisphere. The changes of baroclinic zone can reflects the changes of storm track, sothis supports the above conclusion of possible poleward shift of two ocean storm paths in thefuture. In the future North Hemisphere, the northward movements of baroclinic zone andstorm track would offset the reduction of the ground cyclone number in the higher latitudes,which explained the reason why cyclones in the lower latitudes would decrease moresignificantly than that in the higher latitudes.
（1）基于海平面气压场，气旋自身移动外推和局地引导气流的温带气旋客观判定和追踪方法能够识别80%以上的真实气旋过程，并能够成功地再现东亚地区温带气旋特性气候态的空间分布和频率分布。通过聚类分析方法获得了影响东亚地区的6条主要气旋路径，其中4条路径对我国的影响较大，并且很可能和我国春季沙尘暴，冬季暴雪，强降水和海上大风等极端天气现象有着密切的关系。
（2）揭示了20世纪后半叶北半球温带气旋过程数北增南减的线性变化趋势，这在一定程度上体现了北半球风暴路径有着向极地偏移的变化特征。北极涛动指数（AO）同北半球较高纬度和较低纬度温带气旋过程数分别有较强的正相关和负相关，表明极涡加强和收缩时北半球温带气旋活动向极地偏移，而极涡减弱和南移时，气旋活动向低纬度偏移。发现了北大西洋和北太平洋风暴轴的年代际变化与同地区温带气旋活动密切相关。北大西洋风暴轴有着同北半球一致的向极地移动的趋势，而北太平洋风暴轴则相反地向赤道偏移。两大风暴轴对应的400hPa大气斜压性指数的同位相变化很可能是分别造成了北太平洋地区气旋活动和风暴轴的南移增强以及北大西洋地区气旋活动和风暴轴的北移增强的一个原因。
（3）研究发现东亚北方温带气旋过程数20世纪80年代中期之后显著减少，并伴随着源地的北移。这主要的原因是80年代之后该地区大气斜压性减弱，强斜压区向高纬度移动造成的。南方气旋过程数20世纪后44年整体线性增加，原因则是平均位于40-55°N的北太平洋风暴路径有向低纬度偏移的变化趋势，从而导致了西北太平洋气旋源地的南移。
（4）CMIP5的6个全球气候系统模式对温带气旋特性的空间分布和频率分布的气候态模拟能力好于对时间序列的模拟能力。模拟的气旋过程数偏少，气旋生命期的模拟值普遍偏长，加深速率的模拟值偏慢。BCC-CSM1.1能够模拟出北半球温带气旋活动北移的变化特征，至少4个模式能够较好地体现出北半球温带气旋气压值的线性变化趋势。
（5）利用6个全球气候系统模式预估发现，相对于20世纪后50年来说，RCP4.5浓度路径下的2053-2099时段北半球温带气旋各特征变化的显著性基本都大于2006-2052时段。虽然各模式的模拟结果存在一定的差异性，但共同模拟出了至21世纪末北半球大范围地区的气旋生成和活动将减少，较低纬度减少的更显著。另外，过半的模式模拟结果显示未来北半球气旋中心气压将有降低的趋势。大多数的模式模拟结果得到北大西洋风暴轴未来将继续向极地活动偏移，但强度主要将减弱；过半的模式模拟结果为北太平洋风暴轴也将向极地偏移，强度变化则随季节的不同而不同。东亚地区温带气旋的变化同北半球的情况非常相似和一致，无论是南方气旋还是北方气旋，气旋生成和活动频率将显著减少，气旋中心气压值将显著降低。
（6）6个模式的模拟结果均显示对流层中层斜压区未来将向高层和高纬度扩展，对流层高层急流轴向高层移动的变化趋势，南半球的变化更为显著。斜压区的变化在某种程度上体现了风暴轴的变化，因此这从另一方面支持了论文中两大洋风暴路径未来可能向极地偏移的结论。北半球斜压区和风暴轴向高纬度的移动抵消了高纬度地面气旋数目的减少，这也解释了未来北半球较低纬度地面气旋数目比较高纬度地区减少更为显著的原因。
Extratropical cyclone (EC) is one of the important synoptic systems which affect weathervariability over a wide area of mid and high latitudes, and it can cause significant or intenseweather phenomena and disasters. As a result, it has the scientific and practical significanceto do some research on climate characteristics, activity law and variability trends ofextratropical cyclones (ECs) for understanding weather and climate change and extremeclimate events. Based on an objective detecting and tracking method of ECs, EuropeanCenter for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMRWF) reanalysis data ERA40are appliedto statistically analyze climatology and variations of ECs over the North Hemisphere andEast Asia, as well as storm tracks over the North Hemisphere. The possible reasons aboutvariations of EC and storm track during the last44years in20th century were discussed interms of large scale circulation index and atmospheric baroclinicity. After that, the simulatedcapability of6global climate system models (BCC-CSM1.1, CanESM2, GFDL-ESM2M,HadGEM2-CC, MPI-ESM-LR and NorESM1-M), released latterly by Coupled ModelIntercomparison Project Phase5(CMIP5), about ECs over the North Hemisphere was tested.At last, the future possible variation tends of ECs and storm track over the North Hemisphereunder RCP4.5were estimated by using these6climate system models. The main conclusionsummed up as follows:
(1) Based on sea level pressure field, cyclone movement extrapolation and local guideairflow, the objective method for detecting and tracking ECs can track more than80%realcyclone processes, and successfully represent the spatial and frequency distribution ofcyclones’ climatological features. A clustering analysis produced6major cyclone trajectories,among which4trajectories would have an affect on China, and have important connectionswith severe weather/climate phenomena such as spring sand storms, winter blizzard, heavyrainfall and offshore wind.
(2) A linear increase trend of EC process numbers in the north and decrease in south partof North Hemisphere for the second half of20th century was revealed, which reflected thepoleward shift of the storm track in the North Hemisphere. The cyclone process number had anegative and positive correlation with Arctic Oscillation index (AO) in the lower and higherlatitude region respectively, indicating that ECs of the North Hemisphere migrate to the pole when polar vortex strengthens and shrinks, while ECs migrate to the lower latitudes whenpolar vortex weakens and moves southward. It was found that the interdecadal variations ofstorm tracks over North Pacific and North Atlantic had a close relationship with their ECactivities. Storm track over North Atlantic had a poleward shift, which was consistent withthe counterparts of the North Hemisphere, while storm track over North Pacific had anequatorward shift. The same phase variations of atmospheric baroclinity on400hPa levelmight be one reason for the southward migration and enhancement of ECs and storm trackover North Pacific; northward shift and enhancement over North Atlantic.
(3) Accompanied by a northward shift of cyclone source region, the north cyclonenumber in East Asia indicated obvious decrease trend after the mid1980s. This is becauseatmospheric baroclinicity weakened in this region, and the strong baroclinicity zone moved tohigher latitudes. There was a linear increased trend of the south cyclone number during thelast44years of20th century, mainly because North Pacific storm track, located in40-55°N,had a shift trend to lower latitude, resulting in the southward migration of the NorthwestPacific cyclone formation region.
(4) The simulation capability for space and frequency distribution of cyclones’climatological features was better than that for time series by6global climate system modelsof CMIP5. For simulations, Cyclone processes were fewer, life spans were longer, anddeepen rates were slower. The models of BCC-CSM1.1can represent northward shift of ECsactivities, and at least4models could reflect linear change trends of ECs’ pressure over theNorth Hemisphere
(5) By using the six global climate system models for assessment, it was discovered thatthe changes of ECs’ features under RCP4.5during2053-2099period would be moreremarkable than that during2006-2052period compared with20th century. The models’simulation results had some differences, however, we found an agreement of reducedcyclogenesis and cyclone activity over large North Hemisphere region at the end of21thcentury, especially in the lower latitudes. Moreover, more than half of the models showed thatcyclone center pressure over the North Hemisphere would decline in the future. Most modelsestimated that North Atlantic storm track would keep for moving poleward, but withweakened strength; more than half of the models forecasted that North Pacific storm trackwould also move northward with inconsistent strength changes in different seasons. Changesof East Asia cyclones were similar and consistent with that in the North Hemisphere. Nomatter north or south cyclones, the formation and activity frequency would decrease, andcyclone pressure would decline significantly.
(6) It was found in all6models that the baroclinic zone on middle-troposphere wouldexpand to higher level and higher latitudes, and jet stream axis on top-troposphere would move to higher level in the future under RCP4.5. These changes would be more notable in theSouth Hemisphere. The changes of baroclinic zone can reflects the changes of storm track, sothis supports the above conclusion of possible poleward shift of two ocean storm paths in thefuture. In the future North Hemisphere, the northward movements of baroclinic zone andstorm track would offset the reduction of the ground cyclone number in the higher latitudes,which explained the reason why cyclones in the lower latitudes would decrease moresignificantly than that in the higher latitudes.
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