内生经济增长的驱动因素分析
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摘要
经济增长问题是宏观经济学领域的一个重要命题,经济增长理论经历了一个从外生经济增长理论向内生经济增长理论不断深化发展的研究历程。外生经济增长理论认为全要素生产率的提高会带来经济的长期增长,但没有深入研究全要素生产率对经济增长的作用机制。内生增长理论对全要素生产率的内生性进行研究,揭示了长期经济增长的内在机制。对于一国经济实现内生稳定增长的源泉和动力,学术界已经有了较为广泛而深入的研究,其主要影响因素可以归结为以下四个方面：技术进步、制度变迁、资源合理配置与利用外资。
技术进步是驱动一国经济增长的重要引擎,现有的文献对技术进步的研究主要集中于研究总量技术进步的内生性及其增长效应和研究技术进步的内生偏向性两个方面。研究内生总量技术进步的理论是在外生人力资本积累的框架下,分析了内生性技术变迁的实现机制及其推动经济稳定增长的作用机制,本文建立了研究开发和人力资本同时内生化的经济增长模型,分析了技术和人力资本相互促进式的积累过程以及两种要素对经济增长的影响。研究内生偏向性技术进步的理论只研究了偏向性技术存量的变化与要素相对供给的关系,本文将这一命题扩展至研究偏向性技术的积累率的变化与要素相对供给的关系。R&D过程中技术溢出效应的强弱和人力资本的生产效率是影响偏向性技术进步率发生变化的主要因素。当技术溢出效应和人力资本的生产效率足够强的时候,要素相对供给的增加就会引致技术存量和技术进步率同时偏向于这一要素而递增的情况。最后,本文分析了R&D对人力资本积累的“侵蚀效应”所造成的负外部性,并且得出结论：垄断加价、干中学的负外部性及其引致的物质资本和人力资本的过度投资与“侵蚀效应”相互交错、共同作用,会降低人力资本积累率和经济增长率。
制度是维持一个国家实现长期稳定经济增长的重要保障。现有文献缺乏对于制度变迁驱动长期经济增长的内生经济机制的分析。本文建立了包含内生动态制度变迁和内生技术变迁的经济增长模型。结论认为,制度变迁和技术变迁同时作为经济增长的动力和引擎推动经济实现长远稳定的增长,而且两大引擎之间具有相互促进、相互循环叠加的正向的交叉外部效应,而具有高素质的政治家和科学家的投入是这种交叉外部性得以充分发挥作用的保证。
经济结构变迁过程中发生的劳动力跨部门转移提高了资源配置的效率,带来了一国经济的持续增长。本文从生产技术角度构建多部门的经济增长模型,考察了内生经济结构转换与经济增长的关系。模型中的中间品部门之间存在技术增长率差异,而这种差异引起经济结构变化,进而决定两个中间品部门之间劳动力流动。本文分别考察了劳动力流动对总体经济和对局部经济的影响,得到的结论为：经济结构转换是驱动整体经济和局部经济实现长远稳定增长的重要驱动力量。
利用外资是带动一国技术进步和经济增长的重要途径。本文运用偏向性技术进步的理论,研究了经济绝对收敛和条件收敛问题。在此基础上,结合当今发达国家和发展中国家的经济现实将跨国收入差距的收敛性分为四种情况,并从偏向性技术变迁的角度对绝对收敛和条件收敛的形成原因以及工资波动的原因给出了解释,最后总结出持续的偏向性技术进步和高效率的人力资本投入是发展中国家赶超发达国家的重要条件。本文将内生增长理论和基于资产专有性的合作博弈理论相结合,分析了股权结构、谈判实力差异和资产专有性差距对宏观经济增长的影响。本文认为,跨国合资双方的谈判实力以及各自的资产专有性会对东道国、跨国公司以及整个世界经济的稳态经济增长率产生影响,在跨国合资的情况下,双方的谈判实力差距越小,资产专有性差距越小,越有利于东道国的经济增长。同时,本文分析了跨国合资企业股权结构的演变以及跨国公司独资化进程的影响因素。本文的结论认为,在跨国合资模式下,基于专有性技术所形成的合资双方的资产专有性是决定合资企业股权结构的重要因素,加快技术进步和增加资产专有性是增加对跨国合资企业控制力以及提高在国际经济中的地位具有重要作用。
For many problems in macroeconomics, economic growth is of key importance. Economic growth theory evolves from exogenous economic growth theory to endogenous economic growth theory. Exogenous economic growth theory considers that an increase in TFP will increase the economic growth rate, while it doesn't study the mechanism of TFP on economic growth. Edogenous economic growth theory studies the edogeneity of TFP, and analyzes the internal mechanism of long-term economic growth. The power and source of endogenous and stable economic growth have been fully studied, and have been summed up in four aspects, i.e., technological change, institution change, rationally allocation of resources, and FDI.
Technological progress is a key engine of economic growth. The literatures available on technological progress focus on such two facets as endogenous aggregate technological progress and biased technological change. The literatures of endogenous aggregate technological progress study the mechanism of endogenous technological change and its growth effect in exogenous human capital accumulation framework. This dissertation develops a theoretical model of endogenizing technology and human capital simultaneously, and analyzes how human capital accumulation and R & D investment provide incentives for each other and how they affect economic growth. The literatures of biased technological change only studies the relationship between biased technology stock and relative factor supply, this dissertation expends this issue to the study of the relationship between biased technological progress rate and relative factor supply. The conclusion is that the spillover effects and the productivity of human capital in R&D are the main influencing factors of biased technological progress. If the spillover effects and the productivity of human capital in R&D are sufficiently large, technology stock and technological progress rate can increase at the same time in response to an increase in the relative supply of this factor. Finally, this dissertation characterizes the "erosion effect" which implies a negative externality of R&D in human capital accumulation. This dissertation solves the steady-state economic growth rate in decentralized economy and centralized economy separately, and draws a conclusion that monopoly markup, negative effect of learning by doing, "erosion effect" and overinvestment of physical capital and human capital would decrease human capital accumulation rate and economic growth rate.
Institutional is the important guarantee of harmonious and stable growth. The available literatures lack the studies of endogenous mechanism of how institutional evolution drives long-run economic growth. This dissertation develops a theoretical model of endogenizing institutional change and technological change simultaneously. The conclusions are that institutional change and technological change are the two driving factors of economic growth, and there is a cross externality between these two driving factors which provide incentives for each other and promote equidirectionally, and the investment of politics and scientists of high qualities can insure the role of this cross externality.
Labor moving in the process of structural change raises the efficiency of resources allocation, and promotes economic growth. This dissertation constructs a multi-sector model of growth with differences in technology progress rates across intermediate sectors, and analyzes the relationship between endogenous structural change and economic growth. The different levels of technology among intermediate sectors cause reallocation of labor in those sectors and structural change. This dissertation studies the effect of cross-sector labor moving to aggregate economy and local economy, and concludes that structural change is a main driving force of long-term and steady growth of aggregate economy and local economy.
FDI are main approaches to promote technological progress and economic growth. Firstly, This dissertation studies absolute convergence and conditional convergence caused bybiased technological change. On the basis of the empirical analysis we divide cross-country income differences into 4 cases, and analyze the reasons of absolute convergence and conditional convergence and the reasons of wage fluctuations. Finally we conclude that sustainable baised technological progress and efficient human capital investment are the key conditions by which LDCs can catch up developed countries.
Secondly, this dissertation combines the theories of endogenous growth and the theories of cooperative game based on exclusive assets, and analyzes how bargaining power and exclusive assets of two sides of foreign joint ventures affect the economic growth rate of host countries. The dissertation points out the less the gaps of exclusive assets and bargaining power of the two parties in foreign joint ventures are, the faster the economic growth of host country is. And this dissertation also analyzes the change of ownership structure of foreign joint ventures and the tendency of sole-proprietorizing for FDI. Finally we conclude that the exclusion of assets of the two parties of foreign joint ventures which is based on exclusive technology is the main factor to decide the ownership structure of foreign joint ventures, and an increase in technological progress and an increase in the exclusion of assets are of central importance in rising control force of foreign joint ventures and improve the position in international economy.
技术进步是驱动一国经济增长的重要引擎,现有的文献对技术进步的研究主要集中于研究总量技术进步的内生性及其增长效应和研究技术进步的内生偏向性两个方面。研究内生总量技术进步的理论是在外生人力资本积累的框架下,分析了内生性技术变迁的实现机制及其推动经济稳定增长的作用机制,本文建立了研究开发和人力资本同时内生化的经济增长模型,分析了技术和人力资本相互促进式的积累过程以及两种要素对经济增长的影响。研究内生偏向性技术进步的理论只研究了偏向性技术存量的变化与要素相对供给的关系,本文将这一命题扩展至研究偏向性技术的积累率的变化与要素相对供给的关系。R&D过程中技术溢出效应的强弱和人力资本的生产效率是影响偏向性技术进步率发生变化的主要因素。当技术溢出效应和人力资本的生产效率足够强的时候,要素相对供给的增加就会引致技术存量和技术进步率同时偏向于这一要素而递增的情况。最后,本文分析了R&D对人力资本积累的“侵蚀效应”所造成的负外部性,并且得出结论：垄断加价、干中学的负外部性及其引致的物质资本和人力资本的过度投资与“侵蚀效应”相互交错、共同作用,会降低人力资本积累率和经济增长率。
制度是维持一个国家实现长期稳定经济增长的重要保障。现有文献缺乏对于制度变迁驱动长期经济增长的内生经济机制的分析。本文建立了包含内生动态制度变迁和内生技术变迁的经济增长模型。结论认为,制度变迁和技术变迁同时作为经济增长的动力和引擎推动经济实现长远稳定的增长,而且两大引擎之间具有相互促进、相互循环叠加的正向的交叉外部效应,而具有高素质的政治家和科学家的投入是这种交叉外部性得以充分发挥作用的保证。
经济结构变迁过程中发生的劳动力跨部门转移提高了资源配置的效率,带来了一国经济的持续增长。本文从生产技术角度构建多部门的经济增长模型,考察了内生经济结构转换与经济增长的关系。模型中的中间品部门之间存在技术增长率差异,而这种差异引起经济结构变化,进而决定两个中间品部门之间劳动力流动。本文分别考察了劳动力流动对总体经济和对局部经济的影响,得到的结论为：经济结构转换是驱动整体经济和局部经济实现长远稳定增长的重要驱动力量。
利用外资是带动一国技术进步和经济增长的重要途径。本文运用偏向性技术进步的理论,研究了经济绝对收敛和条件收敛问题。在此基础上,结合当今发达国家和发展中国家的经济现实将跨国收入差距的收敛性分为四种情况,并从偏向性技术变迁的角度对绝对收敛和条件收敛的形成原因以及工资波动的原因给出了解释,最后总结出持续的偏向性技术进步和高效率的人力资本投入是发展中国家赶超发达国家的重要条件。本文将内生增长理论和基于资产专有性的合作博弈理论相结合,分析了股权结构、谈判实力差异和资产专有性差距对宏观经济增长的影响。本文认为,跨国合资双方的谈判实力以及各自的资产专有性会对东道国、跨国公司以及整个世界经济的稳态经济增长率产生影响,在跨国合资的情况下,双方的谈判实力差距越小,资产专有性差距越小,越有利于东道国的经济增长。同时,本文分析了跨国合资企业股权结构的演变以及跨国公司独资化进程的影响因素。本文的结论认为,在跨国合资模式下,基于专有性技术所形成的合资双方的资产专有性是决定合资企业股权结构的重要因素,加快技术进步和增加资产专有性是增加对跨国合资企业控制力以及提高在国际经济中的地位具有重要作用。
For many problems in macroeconomics, economic growth is of key importance. Economic growth theory evolves from exogenous economic growth theory to endogenous economic growth theory. Exogenous economic growth theory considers that an increase in TFP will increase the economic growth rate, while it doesn't study the mechanism of TFP on economic growth. Edogenous economic growth theory studies the edogeneity of TFP, and analyzes the internal mechanism of long-term economic growth. The power and source of endogenous and stable economic growth have been fully studied, and have been summed up in four aspects, i.e., technological change, institution change, rationally allocation of resources, and FDI.
Technological progress is a key engine of economic growth. The literatures available on technological progress focus on such two facets as endogenous aggregate technological progress and biased technological change. The literatures of endogenous aggregate technological progress study the mechanism of endogenous technological change and its growth effect in exogenous human capital accumulation framework. This dissertation develops a theoretical model of endogenizing technology and human capital simultaneously, and analyzes how human capital accumulation and R & D investment provide incentives for each other and how they affect economic growth. The literatures of biased technological change only studies the relationship between biased technology stock and relative factor supply, this dissertation expends this issue to the study of the relationship between biased technological progress rate and relative factor supply. The conclusion is that the spillover effects and the productivity of human capital in R&D are the main influencing factors of biased technological progress. If the spillover effects and the productivity of human capital in R&D are sufficiently large, technology stock and technological progress rate can increase at the same time in response to an increase in the relative supply of this factor. Finally, this dissertation characterizes the "erosion effect" which implies a negative externality of R&D in human capital accumulation. This dissertation solves the steady-state economic growth rate in decentralized economy and centralized economy separately, and draws a conclusion that monopoly markup, negative effect of learning by doing, "erosion effect" and overinvestment of physical capital and human capital would decrease human capital accumulation rate and economic growth rate.
Institutional is the important guarantee of harmonious and stable growth. The available literatures lack the studies of endogenous mechanism of how institutional evolution drives long-run economic growth. This dissertation develops a theoretical model of endogenizing institutional change and technological change simultaneously. The conclusions are that institutional change and technological change are the two driving factors of economic growth, and there is a cross externality between these two driving factors which provide incentives for each other and promote equidirectionally, and the investment of politics and scientists of high qualities can insure the role of this cross externality.
Labor moving in the process of structural change raises the efficiency of resources allocation, and promotes economic growth. This dissertation constructs a multi-sector model of growth with differences in technology progress rates across intermediate sectors, and analyzes the relationship between endogenous structural change and economic growth. The different levels of technology among intermediate sectors cause reallocation of labor in those sectors and structural change. This dissertation studies the effect of cross-sector labor moving to aggregate economy and local economy, and concludes that structural change is a main driving force of long-term and steady growth of aggregate economy and local economy.
FDI are main approaches to promote technological progress and economic growth. Firstly, This dissertation studies absolute convergence and conditional convergence caused bybiased technological change. On the basis of the empirical analysis we divide cross-country income differences into 4 cases, and analyze the reasons of absolute convergence and conditional convergence and the reasons of wage fluctuations. Finally we conclude that sustainable baised technological progress and efficient human capital investment are the key conditions by which LDCs can catch up developed countries.
Secondly, this dissertation combines the theories of endogenous growth and the theories of cooperative game based on exclusive assets, and analyzes how bargaining power and exclusive assets of two sides of foreign joint ventures affect the economic growth rate of host countries. The dissertation points out the less the gaps of exclusive assets and bargaining power of the two parties in foreign joint ventures are, the faster the economic growth of host country is. And this dissertation also analyzes the change of ownership structure of foreign joint ventures and the tendency of sole-proprietorizing for FDI. Finally we conclude that the exclusion of assets of the two parties of foreign joint ventures which is based on exclusive technology is the main factor to decide the ownership structure of foreign joint ventures, and an increase in technological progress and an increase in the exclusion of assets are of central importance in rising control force of foreign joint ventures and improve the position in international economy.
引文
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