国际短期资本流动及其监管研究
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摘要
翻开现代国际金融的大事年表,人们会深刻感受到短期资本流动与近年来国际金融动荡的不解之缘。1992年的欧洲货币体系危机、1994年的墨西哥金融危机及1997年的东南亚金融危机都与国际短期资本流动有关。另外,美国的长期资产管理公司(LTCM)的破产及各种对冲基金的失败都显示短期资本流动的风险十分巨大。
短期资本的大量流动、资产价格的大幅度调整、货币汇率的异常波动和危机的频繁出现已在全球学术界引起普遍关注。目前,随着经济全球化、金融深化及金融自由化趋势的发展,资本的流动速度越来越快。另外,由于金融创新,使短期资本的流动更加隐蔽,使各国的监管机构无能为力,全球也正在研究如何对其进行监管的问题。本论文在对短期资本流动进行系统研究的基础上,侧重于短期资本流动的风险与对短期资本流动的监管。对于短期资本流动的风险,主要研究短期资本流动对一国宏观经济,包括金融市场、汇率制度、货币政策、危机的传导机制等方面。对于监测与监管,首先建立一个短期资本流动的预警系统,然后研究中国如何对短期资本流动进行监管。
第一章主要是对短期资本进行定义并研究20世纪90年代后期短期资本流动的特征与趋势。随之我们研究了虚拟资本、投机资本、对冲基金、风险资本等,与短期资本的联系,以及它们的规模、流动性、风险等。接着,研究了短期资本的来源。最后讨论其流动特点。
第二章是短期资本流动的来源、流动媒介和运行方式。首先,讨论影响短期资本流动的因素。本文根据利率平价学说、理性预期理论和博弈论等,从利差、汇率差、心理预期、政府声誉、资本项目开放、经济周期、国际贸易、通胀等方面对短期资本流动的影响因素进行分析。其次,讨论短期资本流动的形式。本文从贸易、融资、证券投资等方面进行分析,并讨论短期资本流入/出的时机选择。
第三章是短期资本流动的影响机制分析。本文从全球视角出发分析了短期资本流动在发展中国家与发达国家的表现,分别研究了对金融市场、汇率制度、货币政策的影响及对危机的传递。
第四章是国际上对短期资本流动的监管与控制。这包括四大方面:一是对银行、非银金融机构的监管,二是一国的宏观经济政策,三是一国的货币政策,四是一国的法律、法规。首先是央行对银行、非银行金融机构的监管及金融机构的自组织能力。其二,就是一国的宏观经济政策,主要分析资本项目控制及托宾税。最后,简单讨论了法律、法规建设等问题。
第五章是研究国际短期资本流动的国际合作监管。对于控制短期资本流动的危害,发挥其作用,各国政府必须进行合作。这包括央行、证券等部门的合作。这主要涉及IMF、世界银行、WTO、BIS及国际证券业协会等组织。
第六章是研究我国对中国际短期资本流动的监管。主要介绍我国面对的国际短期流动资本的现状和所采取的监管措施的效果分析,并提出结合我国现实国情的监管改革方向。
I The Background
In recent years, the volume of short-term capital flows is increasing sharply, the exchange rate fluctuates fiercely, and the money crises happen frequently. The new phenomena aroused general concern all over the world. Since the development of financial innovations, it is difficult for the governments to supervise the short-term capital flows effectively. The academics, all over the world, begin to research into how to supervise it. In the early time, there were several famous scholars studying this. For examples, B. Ohlin focused on the influence of the short-term capital flows on the country; R. Nurkse focused on the capital formation in underdevelopment countries; James E. Meade focused on the impact of the capital flows on the Balance-of-Payments. But there is only one scholar, Charles P. Kindleberger, who studied the short-term capital flows systematically in his famous book International Short-term Capital Movements, published in 1937. In this book, he studied the influence upon the money supply and BOP; his main focus was on the influence, without talking about the supervision. Now, there are a lot of researches on the financial crises and international capital flows. However, there is nearly no systematic research on the short-term capital flows, especially on its supervision. So, I plan to study the short-term capital flows thoroughly.
II The main points and the difficulties
In this research, there are three main points: the risks of the short-term capital flows; the monitor system about it; the supervisory system about it.
First, the risks of the short-term capital flows. I plan to study the impacts on financial markets, the exchange-rate regimes, the monetary policies, and the contagion of crisis. In this point, the difficulties are as follows: Jamaica Agreement, after Bretton Wood System, is in a mess. Because of the fragile currency markets and the disequilibrium in international monetary system, there are few choices of the exchange-rate regimes available for the developing countries. Most of them use pegged system, currency board, or crawling system, which are the disguised fixed exchange-rate regime. Among the developed countries, there also exists this problem. With the development of globalization, especially the establishment of European Monetary Union (EMU), there will be more and more monetary unions that will adopt the fixed exchange-rate regime, which is the main target of the short-term capital flows. According to Mundell-Fleming model, the government can’t adopt the fixed regime, the independent monetary policy and the perfect mobility of the capital at the same time. It’s very difficult to deal with the contradiction between the theory and the reality, but we have to solve the trilemma.
The second is how to monitor the short-term capital flows. It has been almost blank until now. There are a great many researches on the leading indicators of currency crises. The most important models are: Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart model (1997), Frankel-Rose model (1996) and Sachs-Tornell-Velasco model (1996). In these models, there are no indicators about the short-term capital. Meanwhile, all of them can’t forecast the currency crisis correctly. According to the theory of self-fulfilling (Obstfeld, 1986), the crisis is un-predicable. But, I think there must be some abnormal phenomena in the pre-crisis period, the short-term capital flows in particular. We can use the short-term capital flows to establish a warning system. The difficulties are as follows: for the lack of the former research in this field, I can only do some tentative studies on it and there is the risk that the warning system fails to work.
The third is about the supervisory system. Because of the globalization, the financial deepening and financial liberalization, the capital flows very fast. Financial innovations make the flows be difficult to be regulated. I plan to establish a supervisory system to regulate the short-term capital flows effectively. The difficulties are as follows: the system includes many scopes. During establishing the system, I need the combination of theory and practice, and need some new knowledge about the modern supervision and about the operations in the real life.
During study, I have read many books on the theories of international finance and the econometric models. When I was preparing this research plan, I have studied intensively some books about the theories of supervision and the exchange rate, and the three warning models in particular. III The research methods
The main methods are as follows:
The comparative study. When studying the differences among the short-tem capital, the fictitious capital, the speculative capital, and the venture capital, I will use this method.
The combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. During establishing the monitor system and supervisory system, I will use the econometric models and other theories to analyze, quantitatively and qualitatively.
The use of macroeconomic theories. During the analysis of the factors that influence the short-term capital flows, I will use the theory of interest-rate parity, the theory of rational anticipation, the game theory, etc. In the mean time, I will use the regional economics, the theory of exchange-rate and the theory of finance to analyze the risks of the short-term capital flows; use the theory of modern supervision, the institutional economics and the information economics to establish the supervisory system.
The combination of theory and practice. During establishing the supervisory system, I must use this method to study it. IV The Structure
There are two main parts, one is about the short-term capital flows, and the other is about the monitor and supervision.
Chapter One Introduction;
Chapter Two The Patterns of Short-term Capital Flows;
Chapter Three The Risks of Short-term Capital Flows;
Chapter Four The Supervision and Regulation of Short-term Capital in the World;
Chapter Five The International Cooperation in the Supervision and V The main contents
The first chapter is to define the short-term capital and to describe the characteristics and tendency of the short-term capital flows since 1990. The main contents are as follows: 1. the definition of the short-term capital; 2. the relationship and differences among the short-term capital, fictitious capital, speculative currency, hedge funds, and venture capital, etc.; 3. the formation of short-term capital; 4. the characteristics of short-term capital flows, specially the impact of establishment of the EMU on the short-term capital flows. The phase achievement is to publish a paper about the differences among these different capitals.
The second chapter is about the patterns of the short-term capital flows. The main contents are as follows: 1. the factors that influence the short-term capital flows. I will employ some theories to analyze the following factors: the interest rate spread, the difference in rate of exchange, expectation, the government reputation, the convertibility of capital account, business cycle, international trade, inflation, etc.; 2. the patterns of the short-term capital flows. I will study this from trade, financing activities, and stock investment and research into the conditions when the capital flows in and flows out. 3. the carriers of the short-term capital flows, mainly including the derivatives and hedge funds. Phase achievement is to publish a paper about the factors that influence the short-term capital flows.
The third chapter is about the risks of the short-term capital flows. I will analyze this from two angles, namely the host countries and the recipient countries. The main contents are as follows: 1. the impact on financial markets; 2. the impact on the exchange-rate regime. James E. Meade pointed out that the country is in a dilemma whether to take the fixed exchange-rate regime or let the short-term capital flow freely. The Mundell-Fleming model pointed out further that there is an impossible trinity, i.e. the government couldn’t take the fixed regime, the independent monetary policy and the free mobility of the capital at one time. That is to say there is a contradiction between the fixed regime and the free mobility of the capital. How to solve the trilemma? I will research into how to choose a suitable regime both for the developing countries and for the developed countries, especially whether the fixed exchange-rate regime in the Euroland can avoid the speculative attack of the short-term capital. 3. the impact on monetary policy; 4. the contagion of crisis. After the above analysis, I will research into the comprehensive influence of the short-term capital flows over the recipient/host countries and publish it as the phase achievement.
The fourth--sixth chapters are about the regulation and supervision of the short-term capital flows. The principles are to magnify the risk of the speculation and to reduce the profit margin. All the supervision is divided into two parts: one is the supervision on ordinary days to iron the fierce fluctuation; the other is the supervision during the crisis to minimize the damage. I will use the theory of imperfect-contract supervision, the cost-benefit analysis, public choice theory to analysis this from four levels. The main contents are as follows:
The first level is the domestic regulation and supervision. There are four sides: 1. the regulation and supervision of the commercial banks and non-bank financial intermediaries. Here, I focus on the problems related to the short-term capital flows. 2. the macroeconomic policy, mainly focusing on the capital account convertibility and Tobin tax. I will analyze the costs and benefits when the developing countries open their capital accounts, and whether Tobin tax can prevent the crisis from self-fulfilling, and the effectiveness of the two-tier Tobin tax. 3. the monetary policy, mainly the exchange-rate policy and the interest-rate policy. I will study the choice of a suitable regime and the costs and benefits of the high interest-rate policy in the developing countries. 4. the construction of the laws and regulations. Phase achievement is to publish a paper about the coordination of the policies to minimize the risk and to maximize the utility of the short-term capital flows.
The second level is the international coordination, mainly including the governments, the central banks and the fiscal organizations, etc.
The third level is the cooperation of the international organizations, including International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), Bank For International Settlements (BIS), International Organization of Security Commissions (IOSCO) and Basel Committee. Neither Basel Accord nor Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision prevented the crises from happening, and the world criticized the role of IMF during the Asian crisis. We can see that it is impossible for only one organization to supervise the short-term capital flows effectively. But the fact is that there is no substantive cooperation among these organizations in supervising the short-term capital flows. So, the main contents are: 1. how can we do to improve the functions of each organization to supervise the short-term capital flows effectively; 2. how do these international organizations cooperate in supervising the short-term capital flows.
The last level is the reform of world monetary system. Since 1990, the crises mainly happened in the developing countries. The wrong economic policies would take the blame, but the chaotic world monetary system also contributed to it. The launch of the euro will challenge the dollar-dominated world and will stabilize the world economy. I will study the reform of world monetary system focusing on the supervision and regulation of the short-term capital flows. The general principle is to let the capital move freely and orderly.
短期资本的大量流动、资产价格的大幅度调整、货币汇率的异常波动和危机的频繁出现已在全球学术界引起普遍关注。目前,随着经济全球化、金融深化及金融自由化趋势的发展,资本的流动速度越来越快。另外,由于金融创新,使短期资本的流动更加隐蔽,使各国的监管机构无能为力,全球也正在研究如何对其进行监管的问题。本论文在对短期资本流动进行系统研究的基础上,侧重于短期资本流动的风险与对短期资本流动的监管。对于短期资本流动的风险,主要研究短期资本流动对一国宏观经济,包括金融市场、汇率制度、货币政策、危机的传导机制等方面。对于监测与监管,首先建立一个短期资本流动的预警系统,然后研究中国如何对短期资本流动进行监管。
第一章主要是对短期资本进行定义并研究20世纪90年代后期短期资本流动的特征与趋势。随之我们研究了虚拟资本、投机资本、对冲基金、风险资本等,与短期资本的联系,以及它们的规模、流动性、风险等。接着,研究了短期资本的来源。最后讨论其流动特点。
第二章是短期资本流动的来源、流动媒介和运行方式。首先,讨论影响短期资本流动的因素。本文根据利率平价学说、理性预期理论和博弈论等,从利差、汇率差、心理预期、政府声誉、资本项目开放、经济周期、国际贸易、通胀等方面对短期资本流动的影响因素进行分析。其次,讨论短期资本流动的形式。本文从贸易、融资、证券投资等方面进行分析,并讨论短期资本流入/出的时机选择。
第三章是短期资本流动的影响机制分析。本文从全球视角出发分析了短期资本流动在发展中国家与发达国家的表现,分别研究了对金融市场、汇率制度、货币政策的影响及对危机的传递。
第四章是国际上对短期资本流动的监管与控制。这包括四大方面:一是对银行、非银金融机构的监管,二是一国的宏观经济政策,三是一国的货币政策,四是一国的法律、法规。首先是央行对银行、非银行金融机构的监管及金融机构的自组织能力。其二,就是一国的宏观经济政策,主要分析资本项目控制及托宾税。最后,简单讨论了法律、法规建设等问题。
第五章是研究国际短期资本流动的国际合作监管。对于控制短期资本流动的危害,发挥其作用,各国政府必须进行合作。这包括央行、证券等部门的合作。这主要涉及IMF、世界银行、WTO、BIS及国际证券业协会等组织。
第六章是研究我国对中国际短期资本流动的监管。主要介绍我国面对的国际短期流动资本的现状和所采取的监管措施的效果分析,并提出结合我国现实国情的监管改革方向。
I The Background
In recent years, the volume of short-term capital flows is increasing sharply, the exchange rate fluctuates fiercely, and the money crises happen frequently. The new phenomena aroused general concern all over the world. Since the development of financial innovations, it is difficult for the governments to supervise the short-term capital flows effectively. The academics, all over the world, begin to research into how to supervise it. In the early time, there were several famous scholars studying this. For examples, B. Ohlin focused on the influence of the short-term capital flows on the country; R. Nurkse focused on the capital formation in underdevelopment countries; James E. Meade focused on the impact of the capital flows on the Balance-of-Payments. But there is only one scholar, Charles P. Kindleberger, who studied the short-term capital flows systematically in his famous book International Short-term Capital Movements, published in 1937. In this book, he studied the influence upon the money supply and BOP; his main focus was on the influence, without talking about the supervision. Now, there are a lot of researches on the financial crises and international capital flows. However, there is nearly no systematic research on the short-term capital flows, especially on its supervision. So, I plan to study the short-term capital flows thoroughly.
II The main points and the difficulties
In this research, there are three main points: the risks of the short-term capital flows; the monitor system about it; the supervisory system about it.
First, the risks of the short-term capital flows. I plan to study the impacts on financial markets, the exchange-rate regimes, the monetary policies, and the contagion of crisis. In this point, the difficulties are as follows: Jamaica Agreement, after Bretton Wood System, is in a mess. Because of the fragile currency markets and the disequilibrium in international monetary system, there are few choices of the exchange-rate regimes available for the developing countries. Most of them use pegged system, currency board, or crawling system, which are the disguised fixed exchange-rate regime. Among the developed countries, there also exists this problem. With the development of globalization, especially the establishment of European Monetary Union (EMU), there will be more and more monetary unions that will adopt the fixed exchange-rate regime, which is the main target of the short-term capital flows. According to Mundell-Fleming model, the government can’t adopt the fixed regime, the independent monetary policy and the perfect mobility of the capital at the same time. It’s very difficult to deal with the contradiction between the theory and the reality, but we have to solve the trilemma.
The second is how to monitor the short-term capital flows. It has been almost blank until now. There are a great many researches on the leading indicators of currency crises. The most important models are: Kaminsky-Lizondo-Reinhart model (1997), Frankel-Rose model (1996) and Sachs-Tornell-Velasco model (1996). In these models, there are no indicators about the short-term capital. Meanwhile, all of them can’t forecast the currency crisis correctly. According to the theory of self-fulfilling (Obstfeld, 1986), the crisis is un-predicable. But, I think there must be some abnormal phenomena in the pre-crisis period, the short-term capital flows in particular. We can use the short-term capital flows to establish a warning system. The difficulties are as follows: for the lack of the former research in this field, I can only do some tentative studies on it and there is the risk that the warning system fails to work.
The third is about the supervisory system. Because of the globalization, the financial deepening and financial liberalization, the capital flows very fast. Financial innovations make the flows be difficult to be regulated. I plan to establish a supervisory system to regulate the short-term capital flows effectively. The difficulties are as follows: the system includes many scopes. During establishing the system, I need the combination of theory and practice, and need some new knowledge about the modern supervision and about the operations in the real life.
During study, I have read many books on the theories of international finance and the econometric models. When I was preparing this research plan, I have studied intensively some books about the theories of supervision and the exchange rate, and the three warning models in particular. III The research methods
The main methods are as follows:
The comparative study. When studying the differences among the short-tem capital, the fictitious capital, the speculative capital, and the venture capital, I will use this method.
The combination of qualitative analysis and quantitative analysis. During establishing the monitor system and supervisory system, I will use the econometric models and other theories to analyze, quantitatively and qualitatively.
The use of macroeconomic theories. During the analysis of the factors that influence the short-term capital flows, I will use the theory of interest-rate parity, the theory of rational anticipation, the game theory, etc. In the mean time, I will use the regional economics, the theory of exchange-rate and the theory of finance to analyze the risks of the short-term capital flows; use the theory of modern supervision, the institutional economics and the information economics to establish the supervisory system.
The combination of theory and practice. During establishing the supervisory system, I must use this method to study it. IV The Structure
There are two main parts, one is about the short-term capital flows, and the other is about the monitor and supervision.
Chapter One Introduction;
Chapter Two The Patterns of Short-term Capital Flows;
Chapter Three The Risks of Short-term Capital Flows;
Chapter Four The Supervision and Regulation of Short-term Capital in the World;
Chapter Five The International Cooperation in the Supervision and V The main contents
The first chapter is to define the short-term capital and to describe the characteristics and tendency of the short-term capital flows since 1990. The main contents are as follows: 1. the definition of the short-term capital; 2. the relationship and differences among the short-term capital, fictitious capital, speculative currency, hedge funds, and venture capital, etc.; 3. the formation of short-term capital; 4. the characteristics of short-term capital flows, specially the impact of establishment of the EMU on the short-term capital flows. The phase achievement is to publish a paper about the differences among these different capitals.
The second chapter is about the patterns of the short-term capital flows. The main contents are as follows: 1. the factors that influence the short-term capital flows. I will employ some theories to analyze the following factors: the interest rate spread, the difference in rate of exchange, expectation, the government reputation, the convertibility of capital account, business cycle, international trade, inflation, etc.; 2. the patterns of the short-term capital flows. I will study this from trade, financing activities, and stock investment and research into the conditions when the capital flows in and flows out. 3. the carriers of the short-term capital flows, mainly including the derivatives and hedge funds. Phase achievement is to publish a paper about the factors that influence the short-term capital flows.
The third chapter is about the risks of the short-term capital flows. I will analyze this from two angles, namely the host countries and the recipient countries. The main contents are as follows: 1. the impact on financial markets; 2. the impact on the exchange-rate regime. James E. Meade pointed out that the country is in a dilemma whether to take the fixed exchange-rate regime or let the short-term capital flow freely. The Mundell-Fleming model pointed out further that there is an impossible trinity, i.e. the government couldn’t take the fixed regime, the independent monetary policy and the free mobility of the capital at one time. That is to say there is a contradiction between the fixed regime and the free mobility of the capital. How to solve the trilemma? I will research into how to choose a suitable regime both for the developing countries and for the developed countries, especially whether the fixed exchange-rate regime in the Euroland can avoid the speculative attack of the short-term capital. 3. the impact on monetary policy; 4. the contagion of crisis. After the above analysis, I will research into the comprehensive influence of the short-term capital flows over the recipient/host countries and publish it as the phase achievement.
The fourth--sixth chapters are about the regulation and supervision of the short-term capital flows. The principles are to magnify the risk of the speculation and to reduce the profit margin. All the supervision is divided into two parts: one is the supervision on ordinary days to iron the fierce fluctuation; the other is the supervision during the crisis to minimize the damage. I will use the theory of imperfect-contract supervision, the cost-benefit analysis, public choice theory to analysis this from four levels. The main contents are as follows:
The first level is the domestic regulation and supervision. There are four sides: 1. the regulation and supervision of the commercial banks and non-bank financial intermediaries. Here, I focus on the problems related to the short-term capital flows. 2. the macroeconomic policy, mainly focusing on the capital account convertibility and Tobin tax. I will analyze the costs and benefits when the developing countries open their capital accounts, and whether Tobin tax can prevent the crisis from self-fulfilling, and the effectiveness of the two-tier Tobin tax. 3. the monetary policy, mainly the exchange-rate policy and the interest-rate policy. I will study the choice of a suitable regime and the costs and benefits of the high interest-rate policy in the developing countries. 4. the construction of the laws and regulations. Phase achievement is to publish a paper about the coordination of the policies to minimize the risk and to maximize the utility of the short-term capital flows.
The second level is the international coordination, mainly including the governments, the central banks and the fiscal organizations, etc.
The third level is the cooperation of the international organizations, including International Monetary Fund (IMF), World Bank, World Trade Organization (WTO), Bank For International Settlements (BIS), International Organization of Security Commissions (IOSCO) and Basel Committee. Neither Basel Accord nor Core Principles for Effective Banking Supervision prevented the crises from happening, and the world criticized the role of IMF during the Asian crisis. We can see that it is impossible for only one organization to supervise the short-term capital flows effectively. But the fact is that there is no substantive cooperation among these organizations in supervising the short-term capital flows. So, the main contents are: 1. how can we do to improve the functions of each organization to supervise the short-term capital flows effectively; 2. how do these international organizations cooperate in supervising the short-term capital flows.
The last level is the reform of world monetary system. Since 1990, the crises mainly happened in the developing countries. The wrong economic policies would take the blame, but the chaotic world monetary system also contributed to it. The launch of the euro will challenge the dollar-dominated world and will stabilize the world economy. I will study the reform of world monetary system focusing on the supervision and regulation of the short-term capital flows. The general principle is to let the capital move freely and orderly.
引文
中国学术期刊(光盘版)电子杂志社编者注:文中涉及台湾、香港的地方的“国家”均应为“国家(地区)”,“国”均应为“国(地区)”,“各国”均应为“各国(地区)”。
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7 S. Claessens, 1993: Alternatives forms of external finance: a survey, The world bank research observer, Vol.8, No.1
8 IMF,1996:《国际收支手册》(第五版),中国金融出版社
9 C. Kindleberger, 1937: International short-term capital movements, Columbia university press.
10田宝良,2003:《国际资本流动—分析、比较与监管》,中国金融出版社
11宋文兵,2000:《国际短期资本的流动机制》,复旦大学出版社
12冯菊平,2006:《国际游资与汇率风险》,中国经济出版社
13李翀,2004:《短期资本流动的成因、效应与风险》,人民出版社
14何泽荣、徐艳:《论国际热钱》,《财经科学》,2004年2月。
15于光远主编,1992:《经济大辞典》,P2127,上海辞书出版社
16马克思,1975:《资本论》第一卷,人民出版社
17于光远主编,1992:《经济大辞典》,P343,上海辞书出版社
18 IMF,1996:《货币可兑换和金融部门的改革》,中国金融出版社,P92-96。
21钟心安,1996:《世界游资对国际金融的影响》,《国际金融研究》,第2期。
22黄隽,1996:《国际游资的新动向》,《海南金融》,第5期
24陈岱孙,厉以宁主编,1997:《国际金融学说史》,中国金融出版社,P199-201
25宋文兵,2000:《国际短期资本的流动机制》,复旦大学出版社,P55-77
26 Hamid Faruqee, 1992: Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries—Estimation and Policy Implication, IMF Staff Paper, Vol.39 No.3, Sep. 1992
27 Mundell, R.A., 1962:The Appropriation Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates, IMF Staff Papers, No.9. Fleming, J.M., 1962: Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates, IMF Staff Papers, No.9
28这种报酬被称为风险报酬,通常以预期的超额收益形式出现。
33 H. Blanco and P. Garber: Recurrent devaluation and speculative attacks on the Mexican Peso, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94, 1986, P.148-166
34第一代投机冲击模型详见IMF:《国际资本市场:发展、前景和政策》,中国金融出版社1996, P.69-78
35 R. Flood and N. Marion, 1998: Self-fulfilling risk prediction: an application to speculative attacks, IMF working paper, August
36 Barro, R. and David B. Gorden 1983: Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy, Journal of Development Economics, No.12, P.101-121
40 Klein, M. W., and Marion, N.P. 1997: Explaining the Duration of Exchange rate Pegs, Journal of Development Economics, No.54, P.387-404
41 Corsetti, Giancarlo, Pesenti, Paolo and Roubini, Nouriel, 1998: Paper Tigers? A model of the Asian Crisis, http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/asiahomepage.html.
42 Krugman, Paul 1998: What happened to Asia? mimeo, MIT, January
54 1999年上半年,资本又开始大量回流。
55据Dornbush, Rudiger,: Contagion: How it spread and how it can be stopped? Prepared for WIDER Workshop on financial contagion. 1999、2000年,二分之五的经济体,其中大多数是发展中国家遇到了衰退。
59 Haishun Sun, 1998: Macroeconomic impact of direct foreign investment in china: 1979-1996. [J] The World Economy, Vol.121, No.5, P675-693
60 Steven J.Most and Hendrik Van Den Berg, 1996: Growth in Africa does the source of investment financing matter? [J] Applied Economics, No.28, P1427-1433
61罗云毅,1999:《中国经济增长中投资贡献率的研究》,《宏观经济研究》, No.2, P33-36
75 Kane, E., 1995: Capital movements, banking insolvency and silent runs in the Asian financial crisis, NBER working paper 7514.
76 R. Lenzer, 1998: Archimedes on Wall street, Forbes, Oct. 19, P53
77陈岱孙主编:《国际金融学说史》,中国金融出版社,1997年,P493—530。
78 Mundell, R. 1963: capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rate, Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol.24, No.4
79 Krguman, P. 1979: A model of balance payments crises, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, No.11, P311-325; Flood and Garber, 1984: Collapsing exchange rate regimes: some liner example, Journal of International Economics, No.17, P1-13.
80 Blackburn and Sola, 1993: Speculative currency attacks and balance of payments crises, Journal of Economics Surveys, No.7(2), P119-144.
81马来西来在此文发表后一天即宣布实行直接资本管制政策。
82 Stiglit, J., 1999: Reforming the global economics, Journal of Finance, No.54, P.1508-1521.
83据:Ariyosh, Akira, Karl Habermeier, Bernard Laurens, Inci Otker-Robe, Jorge Ivan Canales-Kriljendo and Andrei Kirilenko, Country Experience with the Use and Liberalization of Capital Controls, Advance Copy, IMF, 2000.
84强制性资本管制往往是非对称的,主要用来控制资本外流。但往往起到吓阻国外投资者的作用。
85指不依靠基本面进行决策的投机者。
86凯恩斯型投机者源自《通论》中著名的投资与选美类比的故事。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯,1996:《就业利息和货币通论》,商务印书馆。
87 Eichgreen, Barry and James Tobin and Charles Wyplosz: Two cases for sand in the wheels of international finance, Economic Journal, 1995, 105, 163-175
88 Ito, Takatoshi, Capital Flows in Asia, NBER WP7134, 1999
89 Edwrds, Sebastian: How effective are capital controls? NBER WP7413, 1999
98国际清算银行:BIS第69期年报[R],北京,中国金融出版社,1999年,P94-110。
99 BIS:国际清算银行第69期年报[R],北京,中国金融出版社,1999年
100 Beddoes, Z., 1999: From EMU to AMU, Foreign Affairs, (July/August).
101 Goldstein, M. et al, 1999: The future of the international financial architecture, Foreign Affairs,(November/December)
102 Frankel, J., 1999: No single currency regime is right for all countries or at all times, Essays in international financial, No.215
109 Garber, P.: Sand in the wheels of foreign exchange markets: a skeptical note, The Economic Journal, Vol.105, 1995, P.173-180
110 Dooley, M.: A survey of academic literature on controls over international capital transactions, IMF working paper WP/127/95, Nov, 1995
111 Spahn, P.: International financial flows and transactions taxes: survey and options, IMF Working paper WP/95/172, 1995
112 Greenway, D.: Policy forum: sand in the wheels of international finance, The Economic Journal, Vol.105, 1995, P160-161
113 Tobin, J.: International currency regimes, capital mobility and macroeconomic policy, Cowels Foundation Discussion Paper, No.993, Yale University
114 Spahn, P.: The Tobin tax and exchange rate stability, IMF Finance & Development, June, 1996, P.24-227
115 Stotsky, J.: Why a two-tier Tobin tax won’t work, IMF Finance & Development, June, 1996, P28-29
116 IMF:《国际资本市场》,中国金融出版社1995年, P79-94。
117 IMF:《国际资本市场》,中国金融出版社1995年, P79-83。
118 P. Quirk and O. Evans: Capital account convertibility, IMF occasional paper, No.131, 1995, Washington, D.C.
119 S. Edwards: Capital flows, real exchange rates, and capital controls, Presented at a conference on capital flows to emerging market, Feb. 1998, Massachusetts.
120 M. Dooley: A survey of the literature on controls over international capital transaction, IMF staff paper, Vol.43, Dec. 1996, Washington D.C.
121 B. Eichengreen, J. Tobin and C. Wyplosz: Two cases for sand in the wheels of international finance, Economic Journal, Vol.105, Jan. 1995, P.162-172.
122 P. Gaber and M. Taylor: Sand in the wheels of foreign exchange markets, The Economic Journal, Vol.105, 1995, P.173-180.
123 D. Mathieson and L. Rojas-Suares: Liberalization of the capital account, experiences and issues, IMF occasional paper, No.103, 1993, Washington D.C.
124 IMF:《国际资本市场:发展、前景和政策》,中国金融出版社1996年,P108。
126曹建明,贺小勇:《中国加入WTO的若干法律问题》,《法学》1999年12期,P49
127张春、马超:《依法建立防范风险机制,保障金融业长治久安》,《金融时报》,1998年10月5日
128倪国爱、杨青峰:《论中国证券市场会计信息披露的规范》,《财贸研究》,1997年6期,P70
129 J. Frenkel, 1989: Capital movements and exchange rate volatility, in International Payments in the 1980s, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston
130 R. N. Cooper, 1984: Is there a need for reform, in The International Monetary System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston
131刘丰铭:《国际金融法》,中国政法大学出版社,1997年,P427
132《路透社》,华盛顿,1998年10月30日电。
133《路透社》,华盛顿,1998年10月3日电
135 IOSCO, 1994: Operational and financial risk management control mechanisms for OTC derivative activities of regulated securities firms, July
136巴塞尔委员会与IOSCO技术委员会,1995:Joint report, framework for supervisory information about derivatives activities, May
137文德斯尔宣言涉及四个主要问题:监管当局之间的合作;对顾客资金和资产的保护;破产程序;紧急情况下的监管合作。文德斯尔宣言载于Financial Times, 1995年5月,P2-4。
139巴塞尔委员会,1993:The supervisory treatment of market risks, consultative proposal, April, P.2-3
140对流动性好及多样化的投资资本要求,巴塞尔的股本头寸风险要求为4%+8%,而CAD的相应规定为2%+8%。
141哈利法克斯公报,1995年6月,P4
144中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第二十二条
145中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第二十二条
146中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第十三条
147中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第十七条
148中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第二十六条
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17于光远主编,1992:《经济大辞典》,P343,上海辞书出版社
18 IMF,1996:《货币可兑换和金融部门的改革》,中国金融出版社,P92-96。
21钟心安,1996:《世界游资对国际金融的影响》,《国际金融研究》,第2期。
22黄隽,1996:《国际游资的新动向》,《海南金融》,第5期
24陈岱孙,厉以宁主编,1997:《国际金融学说史》,中国金融出版社,P199-201
25宋文兵,2000:《国际短期资本的流动机制》,复旦大学出版社,P55-77
26 Hamid Faruqee, 1992: Dynamic Capital Mobility in Pacific Basin Developing Countries—Estimation and Policy Implication, IMF Staff Paper, Vol.39 No.3, Sep. 1992
27 Mundell, R.A., 1962:The Appropriation Use of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Under Fixed Exchange Rates, IMF Staff Papers, No.9. Fleming, J.M., 1962: Domestic Financial Policies under Fixed and Floating Exchange Rates, IMF Staff Papers, No.9
28这种报酬被称为风险报酬,通常以预期的超额收益形式出现。
33 H. Blanco and P. Garber: Recurrent devaluation and speculative attacks on the Mexican Peso, Journal of Political Economy, Vol.94, 1986, P.148-166
34第一代投机冲击模型详见IMF:《国际资本市场:发展、前景和政策》,中国金融出版社1996, P.69-78
35 R. Flood and N. Marion, 1998: Self-fulfilling risk prediction: an application to speculative attacks, IMF working paper, August
36 Barro, R. and David B. Gorden 1983: Rules, Discretion and Reputation in a Model of Monetary Policy, Journal of Development Economics, No.12, P.101-121
40 Klein, M. W., and Marion, N.P. 1997: Explaining the Duration of Exchange rate Pegs, Journal of Development Economics, No.54, P.387-404
41 Corsetti, Giancarlo, Pesenti, Paolo and Roubini, Nouriel, 1998: Paper Tigers? A model of the Asian Crisis, http://www.stern.nyu.edu/~nroubini/asia/asiahomepage.html.
42 Krugman, Paul 1998: What happened to Asia? mimeo, MIT, January
54 1999年上半年,资本又开始大量回流。
55据Dornbush, Rudiger,: Contagion: How it spread and how it can be stopped? Prepared for WIDER Workshop on financial contagion. 1999、2000年,二分之五的经济体,其中大多数是发展中国家遇到了衰退。
59 Haishun Sun, 1998: Macroeconomic impact of direct foreign investment in china: 1979-1996. [J] The World Economy, Vol.121, No.5, P675-693
60 Steven J.Most and Hendrik Van Den Berg, 1996: Growth in Africa does the source of investment financing matter? [J] Applied Economics, No.28, P1427-1433
61罗云毅,1999:《中国经济增长中投资贡献率的研究》,《宏观经济研究》, No.2, P33-36
75 Kane, E., 1995: Capital movements, banking insolvency and silent runs in the Asian financial crisis, NBER working paper 7514.
76 R. Lenzer, 1998: Archimedes on Wall street, Forbes, Oct. 19, P53
77陈岱孙主编:《国际金融学说史》,中国金融出版社,1997年,P493—530。
78 Mundell, R. 1963: capital mobility and stabilization policy under fixed and flexible exchange rate, Canadian Journal of Economics and Political Science, Vol.24, No.4
79 Krguman, P. 1979: A model of balance payments crises, Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, No.11, P311-325; Flood and Garber, 1984: Collapsing exchange rate regimes: some liner example, Journal of International Economics, No.17, P1-13.
80 Blackburn and Sola, 1993: Speculative currency attacks and balance of payments crises, Journal of Economics Surveys, No.7(2), P119-144.
81马来西来在此文发表后一天即宣布实行直接资本管制政策。
82 Stiglit, J., 1999: Reforming the global economics, Journal of Finance, No.54, P.1508-1521.
83据:Ariyosh, Akira, Karl Habermeier, Bernard Laurens, Inci Otker-Robe, Jorge Ivan Canales-Kriljendo and Andrei Kirilenko, Country Experience with the Use and Liberalization of Capital Controls, Advance Copy, IMF, 2000.
84强制性资本管制往往是非对称的,主要用来控制资本外流。但往往起到吓阻国外投资者的作用。
85指不依靠基本面进行决策的投机者。
86凯恩斯型投机者源自《通论》中著名的投资与选美类比的故事。约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯,1996:《就业利息和货币通论》,商务印书馆。
87 Eichgreen, Barry and James Tobin and Charles Wyplosz: Two cases for sand in the wheels of international finance, Economic Journal, 1995, 105, 163-175
88 Ito, Takatoshi, Capital Flows in Asia, NBER WP7134, 1999
89 Edwrds, Sebastian: How effective are capital controls? NBER WP7413, 1999
98国际清算银行:BIS第69期年报[R],北京,中国金融出版社,1999年,P94-110。
99 BIS:国际清算银行第69期年报[R],北京,中国金融出版社,1999年
100 Beddoes, Z., 1999: From EMU to AMU, Foreign Affairs, (July/August).
101 Goldstein, M. et al, 1999: The future of the international financial architecture, Foreign Affairs,(November/December)
102 Frankel, J., 1999: No single currency regime is right for all countries or at all times, Essays in international financial, No.215
109 Garber, P.: Sand in the wheels of foreign exchange markets: a skeptical note, The Economic Journal, Vol.105, 1995, P.173-180
110 Dooley, M.: A survey of academic literature on controls over international capital transactions, IMF working paper WP/127/95, Nov, 1995
111 Spahn, P.: International financial flows and transactions taxes: survey and options, IMF Working paper WP/95/172, 1995
112 Greenway, D.: Policy forum: sand in the wheels of international finance, The Economic Journal, Vol.105, 1995, P160-161
113 Tobin, J.: International currency regimes, capital mobility and macroeconomic policy, Cowels Foundation Discussion Paper, No.993, Yale University
114 Spahn, P.: The Tobin tax and exchange rate stability, IMF Finance & Development, June, 1996, P.24-227
115 Stotsky, J.: Why a two-tier Tobin tax won’t work, IMF Finance & Development, June, 1996, P28-29
116 IMF:《国际资本市场》,中国金融出版社1995年, P79-94。
117 IMF:《国际资本市场》,中国金融出版社1995年, P79-83。
118 P. Quirk and O. Evans: Capital account convertibility, IMF occasional paper, No.131, 1995, Washington, D.C.
119 S. Edwards: Capital flows, real exchange rates, and capital controls, Presented at a conference on capital flows to emerging market, Feb. 1998, Massachusetts.
120 M. Dooley: A survey of the literature on controls over international capital transaction, IMF staff paper, Vol.43, Dec. 1996, Washington D.C.
121 B. Eichengreen, J. Tobin and C. Wyplosz: Two cases for sand in the wheels of international finance, Economic Journal, Vol.105, Jan. 1995, P.162-172.
122 P. Gaber and M. Taylor: Sand in the wheels of foreign exchange markets, The Economic Journal, Vol.105, 1995, P.173-180.
123 D. Mathieson and L. Rojas-Suares: Liberalization of the capital account, experiences and issues, IMF occasional paper, No.103, 1993, Washington D.C.
124 IMF:《国际资本市场:发展、前景和政策》,中国金融出版社1996年,P108。
126曹建明,贺小勇:《中国加入WTO的若干法律问题》,《法学》1999年12期,P49
127张春、马超:《依法建立防范风险机制,保障金融业长治久安》,《金融时报》,1998年10月5日
128倪国爱、杨青峰:《论中国证券市场会计信息披露的规范》,《财贸研究》,1997年6期,P70
129 J. Frenkel, 1989: Capital movements and exchange rate volatility, in International Payments in the 1980s, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston
130 R. N. Cooper, 1984: Is there a need for reform, in The International Monetary System, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, Boston
131刘丰铭:《国际金融法》,中国政法大学出版社,1997年,P427
132《路透社》,华盛顿,1998年10月30日电。
133《路透社》,华盛顿,1998年10月3日电
135 IOSCO, 1994: Operational and financial risk management control mechanisms for OTC derivative activities of regulated securities firms, July
136巴塞尔委员会与IOSCO技术委员会,1995:Joint report, framework for supervisory information about derivatives activities, May
137文德斯尔宣言涉及四个主要问题:监管当局之间的合作;对顾客资金和资产的保护;破产程序;紧急情况下的监管合作。文德斯尔宣言载于Financial Times, 1995年5月,P2-4。
139巴塞尔委员会,1993:The supervisory treatment of market risks, consultative proposal, April, P.2-3
140对流动性好及多样化的投资资本要求,巴塞尔的股本头寸风险要求为4%+8%,而CAD的相应规定为2%+8%。
141哈利法克斯公报,1995年6月,P4
144中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第二十二条
145中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第二十二条
146中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第十三条
147中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第十七条
148中华人民共和国外汇管理条例(1996年)第二十六条
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