基于统计学理论的城市住宅建筑能耗特征分析与节能评价
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摘要
随着我国经济的快速发展和人民生活水平的提高,住宅建筑节能已成为可持续发展的必然要求。如何通过科学的统计方法,全面分析住宅建筑能耗特征及其影响因素,并科学评价各城市住宅能耗现状及相关因素对其的作用,对了解住宅建筑能源消耗的本质特点、科学管理其发展变化、以及合理引导各城市住宅建筑节能有着重要意义。因此,本文根据统计学的相关理论,建立了住宅建筑能耗统计调查方法,根据该方法对五大建筑气候区划下典型城市的住宅建筑能耗进行了调查;并根据调查数据,对各城市住宅建筑能耗特征和影响因素进行了较为深入的统计分析;建立了住宅住宅建筑能量信息系统评价模型对各城市进行了评价。
文章首先定义了“住宅建筑能量信息系统”,该定义从住户能耗量、住宅建筑概况、住户基本资料、住户能耗设备信息、运行/状态信息、以及建筑物外部条件等六个方面,全面反映了住宅建筑能耗特征和复杂的影响因素,以及各因素和能耗量之间的关系。根据“住宅建筑能量信息系统”的定义,结合我国五大建筑气候区划下的住宅建筑能耗、社会、技术等各自特点,提出了全国住宅建筑能耗统计调查方法。该方法包括调查指标、调查表格以及调查组织方式。调查指标全面反映了不同建筑气候区划下住户能耗设备及能耗结构的特点,并将各指标科学地设计在调查表格之中。调查组织方式的确定有利于实际调查的开展。
按照上述统计调查方法,对严寒地区的哈尔滨、乌鲁木齐,寒冷地区的西安、北京,夏热冬冷地区的上海、长沙、重庆,温暖地区的昆明以及夏热冬暖地区的香港等城市进行了冬夏两季住宅建筑能耗调查。文章分析了各城市调查住户的建筑概况、住户基本资料、能耗设备信息及运行状况等特征,以及冬夏两季各城市住户能耗量,并对各城市住宅建筑总体的冬夏两季户均能耗量进行了区间估计。此外,选取了长沙和邵阳两城市进行了住宅建筑全年能耗调查及能耗特征分析,并利用分项能耗估算法对全年采暖空调、炊事热水等分项能耗值进行了估算。
在实测调查的基础上,利用数量化理论Ⅰ,从“住宅建筑能量信息系统”的建筑物内部因素即建筑概况、住宅基本资料、住户能耗设备基本信息、运行/状态信息等四方面,找出了各城市住宅建筑冬夏两季能耗影响因素以及长沙、邵阳两城市住宅建筑全年能耗影响因素,讨论了各城市住宅建筑节能的有效途径。数量化理论Ⅰ的应用,不仅可以分析各定量、定性的影响因素,还可以分析各定性因素中不同类目的各自影响程度,从而克服了传统多元统计分析方法的不足。对各城市影响因素的分析发现,建筑概况、采暖空调设备及热水器的使用、住户人口、年收入、气候等因素都能影响住宅建筑能耗。气候相似的各城市的影响因素具有某些共性,但不同城市又有其自身特点,如影响因素有所差别,各因素的影响程度也不相同等。因此,必须根据该城市的实际分析结果,采取相应节能措施。
为深入分析不同能耗量大小的各住户能耗特点,文章进一步从住宅建筑能源消费的“基本单位”一住户的角度出发,利用对应分析的方法,对各气候区划下的城市住户按能耗量大小进行了聚类评价,找出了导致不同能耗量等级的对应原因,并为同一城市不同能耗量等级的住户节能提出合理化建议。
综合评价住宅能量系统的优劣需考虑多方面的因素。文章最后从住户能耗量、建筑室内热环境、建筑内部其他因素、建筑外部条件、生态环境效益和社会经济效益等六个方面系统的确定了城市住宅建筑能量信息系统的评价指标,根据数量化理论Ⅲ建立了城市住宅建筑能量信息系统综合评价的数学模型,并对五大建筑气候区划下各城市住宅建筑能量信息系统进行了综合评价。数量化理论Ⅲ的优点在于,利用定性因素进行评价时,能根据实际情况,用0和1标记反应值,运用多元分析的原理和方法通过计算将定性数据量化,从而不需要专家主观打分来量化定性数据,克服了评分法或指数法的不足。
本文的主要创新点在于:
(1)提出了住宅建筑能耗指标体系,从住户能耗量、住宅建筑概况、住户基本资料、住户能耗设备信息、运行/状态信息、以及建筑物外部条件等六个方面全面定义了住宅建筑能耗特征以及影响因素;
(2)在住宅建筑能耗指标的基础上,建立了我国住宅建筑能耗统计调查方法。实施该方法能全面反映不同建筑气候区划下住户能耗设备及能耗结构的特点。
(3)对五大建筑气候区划下的各典型城市住宅建筑能耗进行了统一调查。该调查内容全面,调查组织形式科学;各城市的调查方法和指标统一,便于各城市之间的对比;反映了我国五大建筑气候区划下城市住宅建筑能耗的各自特点。
(4)将能耗统计调查方法的设计、统计调查、统计分析、节能评价四个连续的环节作为一个完整的研究体系,而将统计学理论作为贯穿每个环节的理论基础。课题研究按照该研究思想展开,从而使得整个住宅建筑能耗研究工作有了理论指导。其中,利用数量化理论,找出了五大建筑气候区划下各城市住宅建能耗的影响因素;通过对应分析,在同一张主因子平面点聚图中将各能耗量等级的住户与该能耗量等级的影响因子进行了“可视化对应”。
With the rapid growth of the economy and the great improvement of living standard, residential building energy conservation has become the necessity for sustainable development in China. It is very meaningful to analyze the characteristics of residential energy consumption and its influence factors in the round, and further scientifically evaluate the rationalities of current energy consumption actualities in different cities and the interactions between residential energy use and diversified social or architectural integrants and so on, so as to get a full understanding of inherent properties of residential energy consumption, reasonably manage its development, and impel the building energy conservation work finally. Therefore, in this dissertation, the methodology of national residential energy consumption investigation is worked out based on the related statistical theories, and the large scale investigations of residential energy consumption were taken in typical cities of the five architecture thermotechnical zones according to the established investigation method; the statistical analyses on the characteristics and influence factors of residential energy consumption are made in each city; the evaluation models are created to evaluate the residential energy systems in different cities.
A new concept of residential energy system is put forward. This concept is consist of residential energy consumption amounts, house unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances, running/status information and the situation exterior to the buildings, so as to reflect the characteristics of residential energy consumption, the complicated effect factors, and their relationship among them. Based on the new concept, the methodology of national residential energy consumption investigation is worked out, considering the respective social situations, technologies and energy consumption specialties of the five architecture thermotechnical zones. The investigation indices, questionnaires and the organization way of the investigations constitute the method. The indices can reflect the different energy consumption structures and various energy consuming systems in various zones, and are included reasonably in the questionnaires, while the organization way is propitious to the actualization of the national investigation.
Nine representative cities in the five architecture thermotechnical zones are selected to make the investigations of residential energy consumption in summer and winter by the investigation method above, namely Harbin and Urumqi in the frozen zone, Xi'an and Beijing in the cold zone, Shanghai, Changsha and Chongqing in the hot summer and cold winter zone, Kunming in the moderate zone, and Hongkong in the hot summer and warm winter zone. House unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances and their running/status information of the investigated families in each city are specified, as well as the residential energy consumption in both summer and winter. Interval estimation of household mean energy use amounts is further calculated for the collectivity of residential buildings in each city. Besides that, Changsha and Shaoyang are chosen to master the annual energy consumption peculiarities. The end use amounts of space heating and cooling, lighting, cooking and water heating, and other appliances are roughly calculated by the end-use estimation method.
The influences factors of summer and winter energy consumption in these cities and annual energy consumption in Changsha and Shaoyang are found from four aspects of house unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances and their running/status information, by Quantification Theory I. The effective approaches to save energy are also discussed accordingly. Thanks to the Quantification Theory I, both the quantitative and qualitative variables can be introduced into the model and the influences of different items in each qualitative variable can be further analyzed, so as to overcome the shortcoming of traditional multianlaysis. The analyses show that house unit characteristics, the utilization of space heaters and coolers and water heaters, household characteristics, and the different locations of the cities all contribute to the energy use; there are some commonness in influences factors among the cities with the similar climate, but each city has its own characteristics, such as there exist the differences in the influence factors and their effect extents among different cities. Hence the corresponding countermeasures should be adopted based on the status in the cities.
The clustering evaluations are made, from the angle of the basic unit of residential energy use—each residence, to classify the families with the same magnitude of energy consumption amounts into the same group in each city by Corresponding Analysis, and further to find out the corresponding reasons resulting in the energy consumption quantities in each family group. Reasonable suggestions are made for the high-energy-use family groups in each city accordingly.
A full-scale consideration should be given to the comprehensive evaluation of the residential energy system. The evaluation indices consist of building energy consumption amounts, indoor thermal environment, other interior factors, exterior institutions, environment benefit, and social and economic benefit. The evaluation model of the residential energy system is created by Quantification Theory III and applied to evaluate both the summer and winter residential energy systems of different cities. The advantages of Quantification Theory III are to use 0 and 1 as the response values of the qualitative indices and then to quantify the qualitative indices by calculations based on multianalysis methods, so that it is no need marking by experts.
The main innovations in this dissertation are shown as follows:
(1) An indices system of residential energy consumption is developed, covering six aspects of residential energy consumption amounts, house unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances, running/status information and the situation exterior to the buildings, and it reflects the characteristics of residential energy use and its influence factors in the round.
(2) The methodology of the national residential energy use investigations is worked out based on the above indices system of residential energy consumption. Representative characteristics of energy consuming appliances and energy use structures of the five zones can be reflected by actualizing this methodology.
(3) The investigations of residential energy use are carried out in the five architecture climate zones. The investigation items are comprehensive and the investigations are organized in a scientific way. The investigation method is uniform in each city so that the comparisons could be made among these cities. The respective characteristics of residential energy use in each zone have been reflected.
(4) The four consecutive steps of designing investigation methods, statistical investigations, statistical analyses and energy conservation evaluation are taken as an integrated research system, and the statistics methodology is used as the theoretical basis of each step. The whole research is carried out according to the above research thought so that it is guided directed by the theories. Quantification Theory is used to analyze the influence factors of residential energy use in five architecture climate zones. Family clustering and their corresponding influence factors are shown vividly in one principal divisor figure by Corresponding Analysis.
文章首先定义了“住宅建筑能量信息系统”,该定义从住户能耗量、住宅建筑概况、住户基本资料、住户能耗设备信息、运行/状态信息、以及建筑物外部条件等六个方面,全面反映了住宅建筑能耗特征和复杂的影响因素,以及各因素和能耗量之间的关系。根据“住宅建筑能量信息系统”的定义,结合我国五大建筑气候区划下的住宅建筑能耗、社会、技术等各自特点,提出了全国住宅建筑能耗统计调查方法。该方法包括调查指标、调查表格以及调查组织方式。调查指标全面反映了不同建筑气候区划下住户能耗设备及能耗结构的特点,并将各指标科学地设计在调查表格之中。调查组织方式的确定有利于实际调查的开展。
按照上述统计调查方法,对严寒地区的哈尔滨、乌鲁木齐,寒冷地区的西安、北京,夏热冬冷地区的上海、长沙、重庆,温暖地区的昆明以及夏热冬暖地区的香港等城市进行了冬夏两季住宅建筑能耗调查。文章分析了各城市调查住户的建筑概况、住户基本资料、能耗设备信息及运行状况等特征,以及冬夏两季各城市住户能耗量,并对各城市住宅建筑总体的冬夏两季户均能耗量进行了区间估计。此外,选取了长沙和邵阳两城市进行了住宅建筑全年能耗调查及能耗特征分析,并利用分项能耗估算法对全年采暖空调、炊事热水等分项能耗值进行了估算。
在实测调查的基础上,利用数量化理论Ⅰ,从“住宅建筑能量信息系统”的建筑物内部因素即建筑概况、住宅基本资料、住户能耗设备基本信息、运行/状态信息等四方面,找出了各城市住宅建筑冬夏两季能耗影响因素以及长沙、邵阳两城市住宅建筑全年能耗影响因素,讨论了各城市住宅建筑节能的有效途径。数量化理论Ⅰ的应用,不仅可以分析各定量、定性的影响因素,还可以分析各定性因素中不同类目的各自影响程度,从而克服了传统多元统计分析方法的不足。对各城市影响因素的分析发现,建筑概况、采暖空调设备及热水器的使用、住户人口、年收入、气候等因素都能影响住宅建筑能耗。气候相似的各城市的影响因素具有某些共性,但不同城市又有其自身特点,如影响因素有所差别,各因素的影响程度也不相同等。因此,必须根据该城市的实际分析结果,采取相应节能措施。
为深入分析不同能耗量大小的各住户能耗特点,文章进一步从住宅建筑能源消费的“基本单位”一住户的角度出发,利用对应分析的方法,对各气候区划下的城市住户按能耗量大小进行了聚类评价,找出了导致不同能耗量等级的对应原因,并为同一城市不同能耗量等级的住户节能提出合理化建议。
综合评价住宅能量系统的优劣需考虑多方面的因素。文章最后从住户能耗量、建筑室内热环境、建筑内部其他因素、建筑外部条件、生态环境效益和社会经济效益等六个方面系统的确定了城市住宅建筑能量信息系统的评价指标,根据数量化理论Ⅲ建立了城市住宅建筑能量信息系统综合评价的数学模型,并对五大建筑气候区划下各城市住宅建筑能量信息系统进行了综合评价。数量化理论Ⅲ的优点在于,利用定性因素进行评价时,能根据实际情况,用0和1标记反应值,运用多元分析的原理和方法通过计算将定性数据量化,从而不需要专家主观打分来量化定性数据,克服了评分法或指数法的不足。
本文的主要创新点在于:
(1)提出了住宅建筑能耗指标体系,从住户能耗量、住宅建筑概况、住户基本资料、住户能耗设备信息、运行/状态信息、以及建筑物外部条件等六个方面全面定义了住宅建筑能耗特征以及影响因素;
(2)在住宅建筑能耗指标的基础上,建立了我国住宅建筑能耗统计调查方法。实施该方法能全面反映不同建筑气候区划下住户能耗设备及能耗结构的特点。
(3)对五大建筑气候区划下的各典型城市住宅建筑能耗进行了统一调查。该调查内容全面,调查组织形式科学;各城市的调查方法和指标统一,便于各城市之间的对比;反映了我国五大建筑气候区划下城市住宅建筑能耗的各自特点。
(4)将能耗统计调查方法的设计、统计调查、统计分析、节能评价四个连续的环节作为一个完整的研究体系,而将统计学理论作为贯穿每个环节的理论基础。课题研究按照该研究思想展开,从而使得整个住宅建筑能耗研究工作有了理论指导。其中,利用数量化理论,找出了五大建筑气候区划下各城市住宅建能耗的影响因素;通过对应分析,在同一张主因子平面点聚图中将各能耗量等级的住户与该能耗量等级的影响因子进行了“可视化对应”。
With the rapid growth of the economy and the great improvement of living standard, residential building energy conservation has become the necessity for sustainable development in China. It is very meaningful to analyze the characteristics of residential energy consumption and its influence factors in the round, and further scientifically evaluate the rationalities of current energy consumption actualities in different cities and the interactions between residential energy use and diversified social or architectural integrants and so on, so as to get a full understanding of inherent properties of residential energy consumption, reasonably manage its development, and impel the building energy conservation work finally. Therefore, in this dissertation, the methodology of national residential energy consumption investigation is worked out based on the related statistical theories, and the large scale investigations of residential energy consumption were taken in typical cities of the five architecture thermotechnical zones according to the established investigation method; the statistical analyses on the characteristics and influence factors of residential energy consumption are made in each city; the evaluation models are created to evaluate the residential energy systems in different cities.
A new concept of residential energy system is put forward. This concept is consist of residential energy consumption amounts, house unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances, running/status information and the situation exterior to the buildings, so as to reflect the characteristics of residential energy consumption, the complicated effect factors, and their relationship among them. Based on the new concept, the methodology of national residential energy consumption investigation is worked out, considering the respective social situations, technologies and energy consumption specialties of the five architecture thermotechnical zones. The investigation indices, questionnaires and the organization way of the investigations constitute the method. The indices can reflect the different energy consumption structures and various energy consuming systems in various zones, and are included reasonably in the questionnaires, while the organization way is propitious to the actualization of the national investigation.
Nine representative cities in the five architecture thermotechnical zones are selected to make the investigations of residential energy consumption in summer and winter by the investigation method above, namely Harbin and Urumqi in the frozen zone, Xi'an and Beijing in the cold zone, Shanghai, Changsha and Chongqing in the hot summer and cold winter zone, Kunming in the moderate zone, and Hongkong in the hot summer and warm winter zone. House unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances and their running/status information of the investigated families in each city are specified, as well as the residential energy consumption in both summer and winter. Interval estimation of household mean energy use amounts is further calculated for the collectivity of residential buildings in each city. Besides that, Changsha and Shaoyang are chosen to master the annual energy consumption peculiarities. The end use amounts of space heating and cooling, lighting, cooking and water heating, and other appliances are roughly calculated by the end-use estimation method.
The influences factors of summer and winter energy consumption in these cities and annual energy consumption in Changsha and Shaoyang are found from four aspects of house unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances and their running/status information, by Quantification Theory I. The effective approaches to save energy are also discussed accordingly. Thanks to the Quantification Theory I, both the quantitative and qualitative variables can be introduced into the model and the influences of different items in each qualitative variable can be further analyzed, so as to overcome the shortcoming of traditional multianlaysis. The analyses show that house unit characteristics, the utilization of space heaters and coolers and water heaters, household characteristics, and the different locations of the cities all contribute to the energy use; there are some commonness in influences factors among the cities with the similar climate, but each city has its own characteristics, such as there exist the differences in the influence factors and their effect extents among different cities. Hence the corresponding countermeasures should be adopted based on the status in the cities.
The clustering evaluations are made, from the angle of the basic unit of residential energy use—each residence, to classify the families with the same magnitude of energy consumption amounts into the same group in each city by Corresponding Analysis, and further to find out the corresponding reasons resulting in the energy consumption quantities in each family group. Reasonable suggestions are made for the high-energy-use family groups in each city accordingly.
A full-scale consideration should be given to the comprehensive evaluation of the residential energy system. The evaluation indices consist of building energy consumption amounts, indoor thermal environment, other interior factors, exterior institutions, environment benefit, and social and economic benefit. The evaluation model of the residential energy system is created by Quantification Theory III and applied to evaluate both the summer and winter residential energy systems of different cities. The advantages of Quantification Theory III are to use 0 and 1 as the response values of the qualitative indices and then to quantify the qualitative indices by calculations based on multianalysis methods, so that it is no need marking by experts.
The main innovations in this dissertation are shown as follows:
(1) An indices system of residential energy consumption is developed, covering six aspects of residential energy consumption amounts, house unit characteristics, household characteristics, basic information of energy consuming appliances, running/status information and the situation exterior to the buildings, and it reflects the characteristics of residential energy use and its influence factors in the round.
(2) The methodology of the national residential energy use investigations is worked out based on the above indices system of residential energy consumption. Representative characteristics of energy consuming appliances and energy use structures of the five zones can be reflected by actualizing this methodology.
(3) The investigations of residential energy use are carried out in the five architecture climate zones. The investigation items are comprehensive and the investigations are organized in a scientific way. The investigation method is uniform in each city so that the comparisons could be made among these cities. The respective characteristics of residential energy use in each zone have been reflected.
(4) The four consecutive steps of designing investigation methods, statistical investigations, statistical analyses and energy conservation evaluation are taken as an integrated research system, and the statistics methodology is used as the theoretical basis of each step. The whole research is carried out according to the above research thought so that it is guided directed by the theories. Quantification Theory is used to analyze the influence factors of residential energy use in five architecture climate zones. Family clustering and their corresponding influence factors are shown vividly in one principal divisor figure by Corresponding Analysis.
引文
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