电网公司购售电优化理论及其辅助决策支持系统研究
|
摘要
电力市场化改革作为世界电力工业发展的潮流,促使各国的电力企业在考虑电网安全运行的前提下更多地关注电力行业所能够产生的经济效益和社会效益。随着社会主义市场经济制度的不断完善,中国电力工业市场化改革基本实现了“厂网分开”,发电厂与电网公司以及电网公司与用户之间以电价为纽带,形成了电力商品的买卖关系。这其中电网公司具有买方和卖方的双重身份。电网公司都在积极承担国家赋予的政治责任和社会责任的同时,还必须努力追求企业发展和实现企业价值最大化。电网公司如何在买方和卖方这两种身份上,实现经济利益和社会责任最大化,或者说电网公司如何结合自身的条件和所处的环境进行购售电系统协调优化与优化,以制定和实施正确的购售电策略是电网企业面临的重要问题。本文基于上述观点,通过对国内外电力购售电交易市场进入深入分析,对符合我国电网公司的购电和售电问题进行了全面的分析和研究。
首先,对电网公司购电优化理论和模型进行研究。在了解我国当前电力市场的规则以及未来电力市场发展走向的基础上,结合电力市场建设方案,根据电力市场的发展阶段,分当前和未来两个阶段建立电网公司购电优化的理论模型。然后对电网公司售电优化理论和模型进行研究,建立供不应求和供大于求两种情况下影响售电收益的两套指标体系,采用层次分析法对指标赋权,建立两种情况下售电优化模型。
其次,对电网公司购售电分析模型进行研究,利用因素导数替代法原理,分别建立购电和售电环节的因素分析模型,以便对未来的购售电决策提供指导；选取同时购买水电和火电的电网公司为实证研究的对象,对电网公司购售电优化和分析进行了实证分析,收集该公司购电和售电环节的数据,对前面建立的优化和分析模型进行计算,验证模型的合理性与可行性,根据计算的结果,给出该电网公司购售电决策的建议。
最后根据上述建立的理论模型和求解方法,结合电网公司购售电工作的实际情况,利用计算机信息技术,分析电网公司购售电协调优化辅助决策支持系统的目标,设计系统的功能模块。并完成电网公司购售电优化和分析辅助决策支持整套系统的开发,为电网公司的购售电决策工作提供理论支持及其应用平台。
As the world's electric power industry development trend, the reform of the electricity market led the electricity enterprises to pay more attention to the economic and social benefits generated by electrical trade, considering the premise of safe operation of power grid. As the socialist market economy continued to be refined, China's power market-oriented reform basically realized "Power Network and Plants Separation", the price is a link between power plants and grid companies, grid companies and the users, which becomes the relationship between the seller and the buyer. Each grid companies has the dual identity of the buyer and the seller. They also are actively taking on the state's political empowerment and social responsibility; at the same time they must strive for enterprise development and implementation to maximize enterprise value. As the power grid company, on both buyers and sellers identity, how to maximize the economic benefits and social duty, and study power purchasing and sales system considering their own conditions and environment overall analysis and optimization, in order to develop and implement the right purchasing and sales strategy, has an important theoretical significance and application prospects. Based on the above viewpoints, through an in-depth analysis on power purchase and sale market at home and abroad, this paper gives a comprehensive analysis and research on the problems of purchasing and sale of electricity in china.
Firstly, electricity purchasing optimization theory and model of power Grid Company is studied. Basing on the current electricity market rules and the future development trend, combined with the power market construction program, according to the electricity market stage of development, electricity purchasing optimization theoretical model of power grid companies are set up at two stages of current and future electricity market. Then, electricity sales optimization theoretical model of power grid companies is studied and two sets of impact of the income at the two conditions of a shortage supply and exceeding demand are set up, and electricity sales optimization model of the two conditions are established using analytic hierarchy process to empower the index.
Secondly, the purchasing and sales electricity analysis model of power grid companies is studied in the next.The common analysis theory and method are compared and used in the electricity purchasing and sales analysis of power grid companies. The factor analysis model of electricity purchasing and sales is separately set up using derivative factor substitution principle, in order to provide guidance in the future electricity purchasing and sales decision-making. Then empirical analysis which selects a grid company having Hydropower and Thermal power of power grid companies'electricity purchasing and sales optimization and analysis is conducted in the paper. The data of electricity purchasing and sales of the company are collected, and the front optimization and analysis model are calculated, the rationality and feasibility of the model is verified, and in accordance with the results of the calculation, the electricity purchasing and sales decision-making suggestion of the company is given.
Finally, in accordance with the previous theoretical model and method, combined with actual situation of the electricity purchasing and sales work, using computer information technology, the support decision-making support system goal of electricity purchasing and sales optimization and analysis is analyzed, the function of the system modules are designed. What's more, the entire system development of support decision-making of electricity purchasing and sales optimization and analysis are completed.
首先,对电网公司购电优化理论和模型进行研究。在了解我国当前电力市场的规则以及未来电力市场发展走向的基础上,结合电力市场建设方案,根据电力市场的发展阶段,分当前和未来两个阶段建立电网公司购电优化的理论模型。然后对电网公司售电优化理论和模型进行研究,建立供不应求和供大于求两种情况下影响售电收益的两套指标体系,采用层次分析法对指标赋权,建立两种情况下售电优化模型。
其次,对电网公司购售电分析模型进行研究,利用因素导数替代法原理,分别建立购电和售电环节的因素分析模型,以便对未来的购售电决策提供指导；选取同时购买水电和火电的电网公司为实证研究的对象,对电网公司购售电优化和分析进行了实证分析,收集该公司购电和售电环节的数据,对前面建立的优化和分析模型进行计算,验证模型的合理性与可行性,根据计算的结果,给出该电网公司购售电决策的建议。
最后根据上述建立的理论模型和求解方法,结合电网公司购售电工作的实际情况,利用计算机信息技术,分析电网公司购售电协调优化辅助决策支持系统的目标,设计系统的功能模块。并完成电网公司购售电优化和分析辅助决策支持整套系统的开发,为电网公司的购售电决策工作提供理论支持及其应用平台。
As the world's electric power industry development trend, the reform of the electricity market led the electricity enterprises to pay more attention to the economic and social benefits generated by electrical trade, considering the premise of safe operation of power grid. As the socialist market economy continued to be refined, China's power market-oriented reform basically realized "Power Network and Plants Separation", the price is a link between power plants and grid companies, grid companies and the users, which becomes the relationship between the seller and the buyer. Each grid companies has the dual identity of the buyer and the seller. They also are actively taking on the state's political empowerment and social responsibility; at the same time they must strive for enterprise development and implementation to maximize enterprise value. As the power grid company, on both buyers and sellers identity, how to maximize the economic benefits and social duty, and study power purchasing and sales system considering their own conditions and environment overall analysis and optimization, in order to develop and implement the right purchasing and sales strategy, has an important theoretical significance and application prospects. Based on the above viewpoints, through an in-depth analysis on power purchase and sale market at home and abroad, this paper gives a comprehensive analysis and research on the problems of purchasing and sale of electricity in china.
Firstly, electricity purchasing optimization theory and model of power Grid Company is studied. Basing on the current electricity market rules and the future development trend, combined with the power market construction program, according to the electricity market stage of development, electricity purchasing optimization theoretical model of power grid companies are set up at two stages of current and future electricity market. Then, electricity sales optimization theoretical model of power grid companies is studied and two sets of impact of the income at the two conditions of a shortage supply and exceeding demand are set up, and electricity sales optimization model of the two conditions are established using analytic hierarchy process to empower the index.
Secondly, the purchasing and sales electricity analysis model of power grid companies is studied in the next.The common analysis theory and method are compared and used in the electricity purchasing and sales analysis of power grid companies. The factor analysis model of electricity purchasing and sales is separately set up using derivative factor substitution principle, in order to provide guidance in the future electricity purchasing and sales decision-making. Then empirical analysis which selects a grid company having Hydropower and Thermal power of power grid companies'electricity purchasing and sales optimization and analysis is conducted in the paper. The data of electricity purchasing and sales of the company are collected, and the front optimization and analysis model are calculated, the rationality and feasibility of the model is verified, and in accordance with the results of the calculation, the electricity purchasing and sales decision-making suggestion of the company is given.
Finally, in accordance with the previous theoretical model and method, combined with actual situation of the electricity purchasing and sales work, using computer information technology, the support decision-making support system goal of electricity purchasing and sales optimization and analysis is analyzed, the function of the system modules are designed. What's more, the entire system development of support decision-making of electricity purchasing and sales optimization and analysis are completed.
引文
[1]国家电监会.欧洲、澳洲电力市场[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2005：12-42.
[2]张粒子,郑华.区域电力市场电价机制[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2004：14-32.
[3]魏世红.发电侧有限竞争阶段上网电价规制研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2005.
[4]Yongjun Ren, Galiana, F. D. Pay-as-bid versus marginal pricing-part I:Strategic generator offers[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2004,19(4): 1771-1776.
[5]江健健,康重庆,赵儆,等.电力市场中不同电价结算方式的分析与比较[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2003,43(3)：389-392.
[6]王雁凌,张粒子,杨以涵.边际电价结算和发电方报价价格结算竞价机制的经济分析[J].电网技术,2004,28(11)：13-17.
[7]段刚,王心丰,白玮,等.抑制电价飞升的系统边际价格与报价价格混合拍卖机制[J].电力系统自动化,2002,(9)：30-35.
[8]关勇.提高电能效率目的下电网企业购售电风险度量与控制模型[D].北京：华北电力大学,2009.
[9]姚建刚,付维生,陈庆祺,等.电力市场中电价与能源及环境保护的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(5)：71-75.
[10]李金颖,牛东晓.非线形季节型电力负荷灰色组合预测研究[J].电网技术,2003,27(5)：26-28.
[11]张伏生,刘芳,赵文彬,等.灰色模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2003,27(5)：37-39.
[12]赵宏伟,任震,黄雯莹.基于周期自回归模型的短期负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,1997,17(5)：348-351.
[13]张林,刘先珊,阴和俊.基于时间序列的支持向量机在负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(19)：38-41.
[14]Abdullah S. Al-Fuhaid, Mohammed A. E1-Sayed, Magdi S. Mahmoud. Neuro-short-term load forecast of the power system in Kuwait[J]. Applied Mathematical Modeling,1997,21(4):215-219.
[15]P. J. Santos, A. G. Martins, A. J. Pires. Designing the input vector to ANN-based models for short-term load forecast in electricity distribution systems[J]. International Journal of electric Power & Energy Systems,2007, 29(4):338-347.
[16]Paras Mandal, Tomonobu Senjyu, Toshihisa Funabashi. Neural Networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,2006,47(15-16): 2128-2142.
[17]Toyoda J, Chen M, Inoue Y. An application of state estimation to short-term forecasting[J]. IEEE trans on PAS,1970,89(7):1678-1688.
[18]谢宏,程浩忠,张国立.基于粗糙集理论建立短期电力负荷神经网络预测模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(11)：1-4.
[19]谢开贵,李春燕,周家启.基于神经网络的负荷组合预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(7)：85-89.
[20]周佃民,管晓宏,孙婕,等.基于神经网络的电力系统短期负荷研究[J].电网技术,2002,26(2)：10-14.
[21]Ling, S. H., Leung, F. H. F., Lam, H. K., et al. Short-term electric load forecasting based on a neural fuzzy network[J]. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics,2003,6(5):1305-1316.
[22]Gwo-Ching Liao, Ta-Peng Tsao. Integrating evolving fuzzy neural networks and tabu search for short term load forecasting[C]. Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2003IEEE PES,2003,12(2):755-762.
[23]张少华,李渝曾.电力市场中的远期合同交易[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(10)： 6-10.
[24]张显,王锡凡,陈皓勇,等.电力市场中的双边合同[J].电力自动化设备,2003,23(11)：77-86.
[25]黄永皓,尚金成,康重庆,等.电力中长期合约交易市场的运作机制及模型[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(4)：24-29.
[26]张少华,李渝曾,王长军,等.结合期权理论的双边可选择电力远期合同模型[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(11)：28-34.
[27]陈松波,丁振华,张崇见.利用拉格朗日松弛法解决电网优化购入电量[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2002,14(1)：76-79.
[28]陈永进,任震,邱文锋.电力市场中考虑机组启停约束的购电策略[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(1)：12-16.
[29]黄志伟.批发竞争区域电力市场及供电公司交易策略初探[D].武汉：武汉大学,2004.
[30]谭忠富,张立辉,李晓军,等.区域电力市场环境下电网公司的多级购电优化模型分析[J].电力学报,2004,19(4)：274-275.
[31]Li C A, Svoboda A J, Zhao Q. Multi-objective Solutions for Coordinating Auctions of Power Systems[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1999,14(2): 492-497.
[32]郭金,江伟.风险条件下供电公司最优购电问题研究[J].电网技术,2004,28(6)： 18-22.
[33]刘亚安,管晓宏.电力市场中购电商的市场分配问题研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(10)：20-23.
[34]刘亚安,管晓宏.考虑风险因素的两市场购电优化分配问题[J].电力系统自动化,2002(10)：41-48.
[35]Guan X, Luh P, Yan H. An optimization based method for unit commitment[J]. International Journal of Electric Power & Energy Systems, 1992,14(1):9-17.
[36]Liu Y A, Guan X H. Purchase allocation and bidding in dual electric power markets with risk management[C]. Proceedings of the 15th World Congress of IFAC International Federation of Automatic control,2002:21-26.
[37]刘亚安,管晓宏,薛禹胜.Price-taker在在两个市场中的交易决策[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(16)：12-15.
[38]曾次玲,张步涵,谢培元,等.基于风险管理在开放的电能量市场和备用市场间优化分配发电容量[J].电网技术,2004,28(13)：70-74.
[39]H Yan, Yan H, Zhang H. Demand allocation analysis for energy purchase in deregulated energy markets[C]. International conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies Proceeding,2000: 344-348.
[40]Liu Y, Guan X H. Purchase allocation and demand bidding in electric power markets[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2003,18(1):106-112.
[41]Woo C-K, Karimov R I-Horowitz I. Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company[J]. Energy policy,2004,32(5): 635-645.
[42]周明,李庚银,严正,等.考虑备用需求和风险的供电企业最优购电计划[J].电网技术,2005,29(3)：33-40.
[43]王婧.电力市场环境下购电优化问题的研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2004.
[44]Zhou Ming, Y X Ni, Li Gengyi. Research on electricity procurement strategy for the utility in power markets[J]. IEE APSCOM2003/HongKong,2003,11(1): 106-111.
[45]金骆松.基于DSM的电网企业销售电价研究[D].浙江：浙江大学,2007.
[46]曹福成.电网企业购售电经营中的优化模型与方法研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2007.
[47]电力工业部计划用电办公室.国外电力需求侧管理[M].北京：中国电力出版社,1997：1-5.
[48]曾鸣,孙听,张启平.电力市场交易与电价理论及其应用[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2003：23-34.
[49]周平,谢开贵,周家启,等.适应电力市场运营环境的可靠性电价与赔偿机制[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(21)：14-16.
[50]沈力.计及可靠性价值的电力市场电价研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2003.
[51]刘昌,李继传,姚建刚,等.峰谷分时电价的分析与建模[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(5)：14-17.
[52]刘昌,姚建刚,姚文峰,等.基于DSM的分时电价的确定与分析[J].继电器,2005,33(15)：57-61.
[53]段登伟,刘俊勇,吴集光.计及风险的配电公司最优分时零售电价模型[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(3)：8-12.
[54]秦祯芳,岳顺民,余贻鑫,等.零售端电力市场中的电量电价弹性矩阵[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(5)：16-20.
[55]丁伟,袁家海,胡兆光.基于用户价格向应和满意度的峰谷分时电价决策模型[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(20)：10-14.
[56]唐杰,任震,胡秀珍.一种可操作的需求侧管理峰谷分时电价定价方法[J].电网技术,2005,29(22)：71-75.
[57]郭联哲,谭忠富,李晓军.基于用户响应下的分时电价优化设计模型与方[J]法.电网技术,2006,30(5)：24-28.
[58]雷霞,刘俊勇.丰枯——峰谷电价中用户反应度模型研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2007,19(2)：11-13.
[59]Daniel S Kirschen, Goran Strbac, Pariya Cumperayot. Factoring the elasticity of demand in electricity prices[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2000,15(2):612-617.
[60]Emre CelebiandJ. DavidFuller. A model for effieient consumer Pricing schemes in electricity markets[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2007, 22(1):60-67.
[61]李扬,王治华,卢毅,等.峰谷分时电价的实施及大工业用户的响应[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(8)：45-48.
[62]刘严,谭忠富,乞建勋.峰谷分时电价设计的优化模型[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(5)：87-92.
[63]任震,邝新武,黄雯莹.电力市场中可中断电价的设计[J].华南理工大学学报,2006,34(4)：70-74.
[64]王建学,王锡凡,王秀丽.电力市场可中断负荷合同模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(9)：11-16.
[65]Huang K Y, Chin H C, Huang Y C. A model reference adaptive control strategy for Interruptible load management[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power System,2004,19(1):683-689.
[66]王治华,李博,李扬.电力市场下的可中断负荷管理及其方法[J].中国电力,2003,36(6)：14-17.
[67]S Majumdar, D Chattopadhyay, Jvoti Parikh. Interruptible load management using optimal power flow analysis[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1996,11(2):715-720.
[68]Kankar Bhattacharya, Math H J Bollen, Jaap E Daalder. Real time optimal Interruptible tariff mechanism incorporating utility-customer interactions[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2000,15(2):700-706.
[69]Gedra T W, Varaiya P P. Markets and pricing for Interruptible electric power[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power System,1993,8(1):122-128.
[70]任震,高志华,黄福全.发电厂商成本效益分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(2)：13-16.
[71]李文良,张绪刚.电力公共关系手册[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002：67-78.
[72]胡建.电力市场营销管理[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2000：32-41.
[73]吕振勇.电力市场营销与供用电合同[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2000：45-48.
[74]王学军.电力市场营销学[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2000：61-71.
[75]王相勤,丁毓山.电力营销管理手册[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002：54-60.
[76]孙天详,孙薇.电力目标市场[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2003：35-38.
[77]丁冬.电力营销策略与供求规律的研究[D].北京：中国农业大学,2005.
[78]刘立焰.综合售电单价影响因素及其贡献份额计算[J].广西电业,2002,6(3)： 12-14.
[79]舒旭辉.供电企业如何提高售电均价[J].电力营销,2003,10(1)：34-35.
[80]孟忠泽,王健,陈志梅.浅谈影响售电均价的因素[J].山西电力,2003,6： 19-23.
[81]曾军,谭洪恩,夏怀民,等.地区级售电侧市场结构及经济分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(6)：22-25.
[82]康重庆,李顺福,夏清,等.用电市场的结构分析及其对市场营销的启示[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(14)：27-32.
[83]吕泉,李卫东,武亚光.日前电力市场的多时段购电交易新算法[J].电网技术,2005,29(16)：33-38.
[84]易俗,王文平,刘应梅,等.一种基于线性规划的交易管理实用算法[J].电网技术,2003,27(1)：57-60.
[85]Arroyo J M, Conejo A J. Multiperiod auction for a pool-base Electricity market[J]. IEEE Trans Power Systems,2002,17(4):1225-1231.
[86]Motto A L, Galiana F D, Conejo A J, et al. Network-constrained multi-period auction for a pool-based electricity market[J]. IEEE Trans Power Systems,2002,17(3):646-653.
[87]Padhy.N P. Unit commitment-a bibliographical survey[J]. IEEE Trans Power Systems,2004,12(2):1196-1205.
[88]卢艳超,张彩庆.电力公司购电、配电计划的多目标优化算法[J].华东电力,2006,34(2)：11-15.
[89]段登伟,刘俊勇.基于不完全信息静态博弈论的购电商竞价策略研究[J].电力系统自动化设备,2003,23(7)：10-15.
[90]Song H, Liu C, Lawarree J. Nash equilibrium bidding strategies in a bilateral electricity market[J]. IEEE trans. On power systems,2002,17(1):73-78.
[91]刘秋华,陈洪转.电力市场条件下供电企业购电风险分析[J].统计与决策,2005,9：143-144.
[92]陈刚,王超,周波.电力营销决策支持系统的设计[J].电磁避雷器,2003,5： 43-48.
[93]陈晓红.决策支持系统理论和应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000：94-102.
[94]夏安帮.决策支持系统引论[M].上海：统计大学出版社,2001：42-53.
[95]梁雯.基于数据仓库技术的决策支持系统[J].微机发展,2001,3(7)：34-36.
[96]高洪深.决策支持系统的理论、方法、案例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000：18-23.
[97]赵杰辉.电力市场营销理论分析与决策支持系统开发[D].天津：天津大学,2003.
[98]刘羿.数据挖掘在电力营销决策支持系统中的研究与应用[D].北京：华北电力大学,2002.
[99]黄志伟,陈允平,严正.单一卖方电力市场及购电商竞价策略研究[J].电工技术学报,2004,19(4)：101-106.
[100]Richter C W Jr, Sheble G B. A profit-based unit commitment GA for the competitive environment[J]. IEEE Trans.on Power Systems,2000,15(2): 715-721.
[2]张粒子,郑华.区域电力市场电价机制[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2004：14-32.
[3]魏世红.发电侧有限竞争阶段上网电价规制研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2005.
[4]Yongjun Ren, Galiana, F. D. Pay-as-bid versus marginal pricing-part I:Strategic generator offers[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2004,19(4): 1771-1776.
[5]江健健,康重庆,赵儆,等.电力市场中不同电价结算方式的分析与比较[J].清华大学学报(自然科学版),2003,43(3)：389-392.
[6]王雁凌,张粒子,杨以涵.边际电价结算和发电方报价价格结算竞价机制的经济分析[J].电网技术,2004,28(11)：13-17.
[7]段刚,王心丰,白玮,等.抑制电价飞升的系统边际价格与报价价格混合拍卖机制[J].电力系统自动化,2002,(9)：30-35.
[8]关勇.提高电能效率目的下电网企业购售电风险度量与控制模型[D].北京：华北电力大学,2009.
[9]姚建刚,付维生,陈庆祺,等.电力市场中电价与能源及环境保护的研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2000,20(5)：71-75.
[10]李金颖,牛东晓.非线形季节型电力负荷灰色组合预测研究[J].电网技术,2003,27(5)：26-28.
[11]张伏生,刘芳,赵文彬,等.灰色模型在中长期负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2003,27(5)：37-39.
[12]赵宏伟,任震,黄雯莹.基于周期自回归模型的短期负荷预测[J].中国电机工程学报,1997,17(5)：348-351.
[13]张林,刘先珊,阴和俊.基于时间序列的支持向量机在负荷预测中的应用[J].电网技术,2004,28(19)：38-41.
[14]Abdullah S. Al-Fuhaid, Mohammed A. E1-Sayed, Magdi S. Mahmoud. Neuro-short-term load forecast of the power system in Kuwait[J]. Applied Mathematical Modeling,1997,21(4):215-219.
[15]P. J. Santos, A. G. Martins, A. J. Pires. Designing the input vector to ANN-based models for short-term load forecast in electricity distribution systems[J]. International Journal of electric Power & Energy Systems,2007, 29(4):338-347.
[16]Paras Mandal, Tomonobu Senjyu, Toshihisa Funabashi. Neural Networks approach to forecast several hour ahead electricity prices and loads in deregulated market[J]. Energy Conversion and Management,2006,47(15-16): 2128-2142.
[17]Toyoda J, Chen M, Inoue Y. An application of state estimation to short-term forecasting[J]. IEEE trans on PAS,1970,89(7):1678-1688.
[18]谢宏,程浩忠,张国立.基于粗糙集理论建立短期电力负荷神经网络预测模型[J].中国电机工程学报,2003,23(11)：1-4.
[19]谢开贵,李春燕,周家启.基于神经网络的负荷组合预测模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2002,22(7)：85-89.
[20]周佃民,管晓宏,孙婕,等.基于神经网络的电力系统短期负荷研究[J].电网技术,2002,26(2)：10-14.
[21]Ling, S. H., Leung, F. H. F., Lam, H. K., et al. Short-term electric load forecasting based on a neural fuzzy network[J]. IEEE Transactions on Industrial Electronics,2003,6(5):1305-1316.
[22]Gwo-Ching Liao, Ta-Peng Tsao. Integrating evolving fuzzy neural networks and tabu search for short term load forecasting[C]. Transmission and Distribution Conference and Exposition,2003IEEE PES,2003,12(2):755-762.
[23]张少华,李渝曾.电力市场中的远期合同交易[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(10)： 6-10.
[24]张显,王锡凡,陈皓勇,等.电力市场中的双边合同[J].电力自动化设备,2003,23(11)：77-86.
[25]黄永皓,尚金成,康重庆,等.电力中长期合约交易市场的运作机制及模型[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(4)：24-29.
[26]张少华,李渝曾,王长军,等.结合期权理论的双边可选择电力远期合同模型[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(11)：28-34.
[27]陈松波,丁振华,张崇见.利用拉格朗日松弛法解决电网优化购入电量[J].电力系统及其自动化学报,2002,14(1)：76-79.
[28]陈永进,任震,邱文锋.电力市场中考虑机组启停约束的购电策略[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(1)：12-16.
[29]黄志伟.批发竞争区域电力市场及供电公司交易策略初探[D].武汉：武汉大学,2004.
[30]谭忠富,张立辉,李晓军,等.区域电力市场环境下电网公司的多级购电优化模型分析[J].电力学报,2004,19(4)：274-275.
[31]Li C A, Svoboda A J, Zhao Q. Multi-objective Solutions for Coordinating Auctions of Power Systems[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,1999,14(2): 492-497.
[32]郭金,江伟.风险条件下供电公司最优购电问题研究[J].电网技术,2004,28(6)： 18-22.
[33]刘亚安,管晓宏.电力市场中购电商的市场分配问题研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2001,21(10)：20-23.
[34]刘亚安,管晓宏.考虑风险因素的两市场购电优化分配问题[J].电力系统自动化,2002(10)：41-48.
[35]Guan X, Luh P, Yan H. An optimization based method for unit commitment[J]. International Journal of Electric Power & Energy Systems, 1992,14(1):9-17.
[36]Liu Y A, Guan X H. Purchase allocation and bidding in dual electric power markets with risk management[C]. Proceedings of the 15th World Congress of IFAC International Federation of Automatic control,2002:21-26.
[37]刘亚安,管晓宏,薛禹胜.Price-taker在在两个市场中的交易决策[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(16)：12-15.
[38]曾次玲,张步涵,谢培元,等.基于风险管理在开放的电能量市场和备用市场间优化分配发电容量[J].电网技术,2004,28(13)：70-74.
[39]H Yan, Yan H, Zhang H. Demand allocation analysis for energy purchase in deregulated energy markets[C]. International conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies Proceeding,2000: 344-348.
[40]Liu Y, Guan X H. Purchase allocation and demand bidding in electric power markets[J]. IEEE Trans on Power Systems,2003,18(1):106-112.
[41]Woo C-K, Karimov R I-Horowitz I. Managing electricity procurement cost and risk by a local distribution company[J]. Energy policy,2004,32(5): 635-645.
[42]周明,李庚银,严正,等.考虑备用需求和风险的供电企业最优购电计划[J].电网技术,2005,29(3)：33-40.
[43]王婧.电力市场环境下购电优化问题的研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2004.
[44]Zhou Ming, Y X Ni, Li Gengyi. Research on electricity procurement strategy for the utility in power markets[J]. IEE APSCOM2003/HongKong,2003,11(1): 106-111.
[45]金骆松.基于DSM的电网企业销售电价研究[D].浙江：浙江大学,2007.
[46]曹福成.电网企业购售电经营中的优化模型与方法研究[D].北京：华北电力大学,2007.
[47]电力工业部计划用电办公室.国外电力需求侧管理[M].北京：中国电力出版社,1997：1-5.
[48]曾鸣,孙听,张启平.电力市场交易与电价理论及其应用[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2003：23-34.
[49]周平,谢开贵,周家启,等.适应电力市场运营环境的可靠性电价与赔偿机制[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(21)：14-16.
[50]沈力.计及可靠性价值的电力市场电价研究[D].重庆：重庆大学,2003.
[51]刘昌,李继传,姚建刚,等.峰谷分时电价的分析与建模[J].电力需求侧管理,2005,7(5)：14-17.
[52]刘昌,姚建刚,姚文峰,等.基于DSM的分时电价的确定与分析[J].继电器,2005,33(15)：57-61.
[53]段登伟,刘俊勇,吴集光.计及风险的配电公司最优分时零售电价模型[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(3)：8-12.
[54]秦祯芳,岳顺民,余贻鑫,等.零售端电力市场中的电量电价弹性矩阵[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(5)：16-20.
[55]丁伟,袁家海,胡兆光.基于用户价格向应和满意度的峰谷分时电价决策模型[J].电力系统自动化,2005,29(20)：10-14.
[56]唐杰,任震,胡秀珍.一种可操作的需求侧管理峰谷分时电价定价方法[J].电网技术,2005,29(22)：71-75.
[57]郭联哲,谭忠富,李晓军.基于用户响应下的分时电价优化设计模型与方[J]法.电网技术,2006,30(5)：24-28.
[58]雷霞,刘俊勇.丰枯——峰谷电价中用户反应度模型研究[J].电力需求侧管理,2007,19(2)：11-13.
[59]Daniel S Kirschen, Goran Strbac, Pariya Cumperayot. Factoring the elasticity of demand in electricity prices[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2000,15(2):612-617.
[60]Emre CelebiandJ. DavidFuller. A model for effieient consumer Pricing schemes in electricity markets[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2007, 22(1):60-67.
[61]李扬,王治华,卢毅,等.峰谷分时电价的实施及大工业用户的响应[J].电力系统自动化,2001,25(8)：45-48.
[62]刘严,谭忠富,乞建勋.峰谷分时电价设计的优化模型[J].中国管理科学,2005,13(5)：87-92.
[63]任震,邝新武,黄雯莹.电力市场中可中断电价的设计[J].华南理工大学学报,2006,34(4)：70-74.
[64]王建学,王锡凡,王秀丽.电力市场可中断负荷合同模型研究[J].中国电机工程学报,2005,25(9)：11-16.
[65]Huang K Y, Chin H C, Huang Y C. A model reference adaptive control strategy for Interruptible load management[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power System,2004,19(1):683-689.
[66]王治华,李博,李扬.电力市场下的可中断负荷管理及其方法[J].中国电力,2003,36(6)：14-17.
[67]S Majumdar, D Chattopadhyay, Jvoti Parikh. Interruptible load management using optimal power flow analysis[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, 1996,11(2):715-720.
[68]Kankar Bhattacharya, Math H J Bollen, Jaap E Daalder. Real time optimal Interruptible tariff mechanism incorporating utility-customer interactions[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power Systems,2000,15(2):700-706.
[69]Gedra T W, Varaiya P P. Markets and pricing for Interruptible electric power[J]. IEEE Transactions on Power System,1993,8(1):122-128.
[70]任震,高志华,黄福全.发电厂商成本效益分析[J].电力系统自动化,2004,28(2)：13-16.
[71]李文良,张绪刚.电力公共关系手册[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002：67-78.
[72]胡建.电力市场营销管理[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2000：32-41.
[73]吕振勇.电力市场营销与供用电合同[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2000：45-48.
[74]王学军.电力市场营销学[M].北京：中国水利水电出版社,2000：61-71.
[75]王相勤,丁毓山.电力营销管理手册[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2002：54-60.
[76]孙天详,孙薇.电力目标市场[M].北京：中国电力出版社,2003：35-38.
[77]丁冬.电力营销策略与供求规律的研究[D].北京：中国农业大学,2005.
[78]刘立焰.综合售电单价影响因素及其贡献份额计算[J].广西电业,2002,6(3)： 12-14.
[79]舒旭辉.供电企业如何提高售电均价[J].电力营销,2003,10(1)：34-35.
[80]孟忠泽,王健,陈志梅.浅谈影响售电均价的因素[J].山西电力,2003,6： 19-23.
[81]曾军,谭洪恩,夏怀民,等.地区级售电侧市场结构及经济分析[J].电力需求侧管理,2004,6(6)：22-25.
[82]康重庆,李顺福,夏清,等.用电市场的结构分析及其对市场营销的启示[J].电力系统自动化,2003,27(14)：27-32.
[83]吕泉,李卫东,武亚光.日前电力市场的多时段购电交易新算法[J].电网技术,2005,29(16)：33-38.
[84]易俗,王文平,刘应梅,等.一种基于线性规划的交易管理实用算法[J].电网技术,2003,27(1)：57-60.
[85]Arroyo J M, Conejo A J. Multiperiod auction for a pool-base Electricity market[J]. IEEE Trans Power Systems,2002,17(4):1225-1231.
[86]Motto A L, Galiana F D, Conejo A J, et al. Network-constrained multi-period auction for a pool-based electricity market[J]. IEEE Trans Power Systems,2002,17(3):646-653.
[87]Padhy.N P. Unit commitment-a bibliographical survey[J]. IEEE Trans Power Systems,2004,12(2):1196-1205.
[88]卢艳超,张彩庆.电力公司购电、配电计划的多目标优化算法[J].华东电力,2006,34(2)：11-15.
[89]段登伟,刘俊勇.基于不完全信息静态博弈论的购电商竞价策略研究[J].电力系统自动化设备,2003,23(7)：10-15.
[90]Song H, Liu C, Lawarree J. Nash equilibrium bidding strategies in a bilateral electricity market[J]. IEEE trans. On power systems,2002,17(1):73-78.
[91]刘秋华,陈洪转.电力市场条件下供电企业购电风险分析[J].统计与决策,2005,9：143-144.
[92]陈刚,王超,周波.电力营销决策支持系统的设计[J].电磁避雷器,2003,5： 43-48.
[93]陈晓红.决策支持系统理论和应用[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000：94-102.
[94]夏安帮.决策支持系统引论[M].上海：统计大学出版社,2001：42-53.
[95]梁雯.基于数据仓库技术的决策支持系统[J].微机发展,2001,3(7)：34-36.
[96]高洪深.决策支持系统的理论、方法、案例[M].北京：清华大学出版社,2000：18-23.
[97]赵杰辉.电力市场营销理论分析与决策支持系统开发[D].天津：天津大学,2003.
[98]刘羿.数据挖掘在电力营销决策支持系统中的研究与应用[D].北京：华北电力大学,2002.
[99]黄志伟,陈允平,严正.单一卖方电力市场及购电商竞价策略研究[J].电工技术学报,2004,19(4)：101-106.
[100]Richter C W Jr, Sheble G B. A profit-based unit commitment GA for the competitive environment[J]. IEEE Trans.on Power Systems,2000,15(2): 715-721.
© 2004-2018 中国地质图书馆版权所有 京ICP备05064691号 京公网安备11010802017129号 地址：北京市海淀区学院路29号 邮编：100083 电话：办公室：(+86 10)66554848；文献借阅、咨询服务、科技查新：66554700 |