财政分权、外商直接投资与地区经济增长
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摘要
改革开放以来,我国经济飞速发展,经济增速超过两位数,被誉为“增长奇迹”。在取得成就的同时,我国粗放型经济增长方式面临的瓶颈也日益严重,如经济增长效率不高、产业结构失衡、地区间收入差距拉大、投资消费关系不和谐、过度开发资源等。经济增长速度过高和这些问题背后所反映出来的是与广大居民休戚相关的经济增长质量问题。经济增长速度和经济增长质量从来都是经济增长这枚硬币的正反面。鉴于人们正逐步从对经济增长速度的过分关注中转向对经济增长质量问题的日益关注,本文将同时将经济增长的这两方面作为分析对象,考察经济增长速度的同时,通过构建恰当的地区经济增长质量评价指标体系,分析考察各地区经济增长质量。
研究任何经济问题都不能脱离其制度背景,在我国尤为如此。1979年以来,我国实行了两项重要的制度安排：对内的财政分权改革以及对外开放。财政领域的分权改革激发了地方政府经济增长的积极性,分权对地区经济增长产生了多方面的影响。外资流入在我国经济增长过程中长期以来也一直扮演着极其重要的角色。此外,经济分权带来了地区间经济增长竞争,政治领域自上而下的垂直治理机制加剧了甚至恶化了这种竞争关系,其重要表现领域就是地区间“竞争到底”的引资政策博弈。地方政府间这种囚徒困境式博弈将影响跨国公司在华的投资决策和经营行为,据此强化或弱化外资对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量的影响,本文将对分权和外资流入对经济增长的上述间接和直接影响关系进行较为全面的考察。
具体而言在结构编排上,本文以省级面板数据为研究对象,首先从经济增长质量的内涵和测度方法入手并构建了适合我国经济发展现状的地区经济增长质量指数,从经济增长效率、经济增长结构、经济增长稳定性、经济增长的福利变化和成果分配以及经济增长的环境影响五个维度对地区经济增长质量进行考量；其次,对财政分权、外商直接投资以及二者交互影响对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量的影响机制进行了理论和模型分析；然后利用1998-2011年省级面板数据以及系统广义矩方法对财政分权、外商直接投资与地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量之间的关系进行了回归分析,据此得出这两项制度安排对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量的影响方向、影响程度以及影响途径。
本文的主要结论如下：第一,从地区经济增长质量的测算结果来看,首先我国不同地区间经济增长质量存在较大差距,直辖市及一些东部省份地区经济增长质量指数较高,部分西部省份平均经济增长质量指数则较为落后。其次,从时间趋势来看,各地区以2007年为转折点,经济增长质量指数差距呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势。第二,外商直接投资对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量指数提高有明显促进作用；财政分权对地区经济增长速度的促进作用不显著,但明显促进了地区经济增长质量水平的提高。第三,财政分权制度改革有利于地区经济增长结构的优化升级和居民福利水平的提升,但是对地区经济增长效率、经济增长稳定性以及环境则没有显著影响；外商直接投资对地区经济增长效率有阻碍作用,但能有效促进地区经济增长结构改善,并对地区经济增长的环境影响有正向作用；财政分权能够强化外商直接投资对地区经济增长结构的改善,削弱外商直接投资对地区经济增长速度的促进作用,同时强化对地区经济增长效率的阻碍作用。
Since the Chinese government adopted the policy of reform and opening-up, our economy developed rapidly over double-digit. At the same time, the bottleneck because of extensive pattern of economic growth has became more and more serious, such as economic growth inefficient, industrial structure imbalance, widening income gap between regions, investment and consumption disharmony, over-exploitation of resources, etc. The root of these contradictions reflects the quality of economic growth which is closely related with people. Now people changed their concern from the economic growth rate to the quality of economic growth. The paper focus on the quality of regional economic growth basing on the economic growth rate and build appropriate index evaluation system of the quality of regional economic growth, in order to investigate the quality of economic growth across the country.
Institution is a precondition and decisive force for regional economic growth. The China adopted two important institutional arrangements including the policy of reform and opening-up and the policy of fiscal decentralization since1979, which brought important and profound influence to China's economic growth. Therefore, the paper researched the effect to rate and quality of the regional economic growth made by foreign direct investment on the text of fiscal decentralization. At the same time, in order to attract more foreign enterprises, local governments competed to give further more preferential policies to foreign enterprises, thus fell into a "race to the bottom "kind of prisoner's dilemma game. Accordingly, this phenomenon is bound to affect the rate and the quality of regional economic growth coming from foreign direct investment.
The paper is basically structured as follows:First, the paper builds appropriate index evaluation system of the regional economic growth quality by starting with the research of connotation and measurement methods of economic growth quality and analyze the regional economic growth quality from five dimensions including economic growth efficiency, economic growth structure, economic growth stability, welfare effects and environmental effects of economic growth using the principal component analysis method. Second, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism to regional economic growth rate and regional economic growth quality made by fiscal decentralization and foreign direct investment and interaction of them from the level of theories and models. At the same time, the paper examines the relationship of fiscal decentralization, foreign direct investment and regional economic growth rate and regional economic growth quality using the method of SYS-GMM and the provincial panel data of1998-2011. Finally, the paper draws conclusions from the direction, the degree and the approach to regional economic growth rate and regional economic growth quality by the two institutional arrangements.
The conclusions of this paper as follows:First, from the estimation results of regional economic growth quality, the index of eastern provinces and the Municipalities are higher, but the western provinces'are lower. On the other hand, from the point of time trend, the index of economic growth quality appeared expanded at first and then narrowed as a turning point of2007. Second, foreign direct investment is beneficial to the regional economic growth rate and the index of economic growth quality; Fiscal decentralization can promote the level of index of regional economic growth quality significantly but limited to the regional economic growth rate. Third, fiscal decentralization is beneficial to the optimization and upgrading of the economic growth structure and raising the level of the residents' welfare; but there was no significant effect to the economic growth efficiency, economic growth stability and the environmental effects of economic growth. On the other hand, the foreign direct investment can improve the economic growth structure and environmental effects of economic growth, but it goes against economic growth efficiency. Finally, fiscal decentralization will strengthen positive effects of FDI on promoting regional economic growth structure while weaken positive effects of FDI on promoting regional economic growth rate, at the same time strengthen negative effects of FDI on impeding regional economic growth efficiency.
研究任何经济问题都不能脱离其制度背景,在我国尤为如此。1979年以来,我国实行了两项重要的制度安排：对内的财政分权改革以及对外开放。财政领域的分权改革激发了地方政府经济增长的积极性,分权对地区经济增长产生了多方面的影响。外资流入在我国经济增长过程中长期以来也一直扮演着极其重要的角色。此外,经济分权带来了地区间经济增长竞争,政治领域自上而下的垂直治理机制加剧了甚至恶化了这种竞争关系,其重要表现领域就是地区间“竞争到底”的引资政策博弈。地方政府间这种囚徒困境式博弈将影响跨国公司在华的投资决策和经营行为,据此强化或弱化外资对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量的影响,本文将对分权和外资流入对经济增长的上述间接和直接影响关系进行较为全面的考察。
具体而言在结构编排上,本文以省级面板数据为研究对象,首先从经济增长质量的内涵和测度方法入手并构建了适合我国经济发展现状的地区经济增长质量指数,从经济增长效率、经济增长结构、经济增长稳定性、经济增长的福利变化和成果分配以及经济增长的环境影响五个维度对地区经济增长质量进行考量；其次,对财政分权、外商直接投资以及二者交互影响对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量的影响机制进行了理论和模型分析；然后利用1998-2011年省级面板数据以及系统广义矩方法对财政分权、外商直接投资与地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量之间的关系进行了回归分析,据此得出这两项制度安排对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量的影响方向、影响程度以及影响途径。
本文的主要结论如下：第一,从地区经济增长质量的测算结果来看,首先我国不同地区间经济增长质量存在较大差距,直辖市及一些东部省份地区经济增长质量指数较高,部分西部省份平均经济增长质量指数则较为落后。其次,从时间趋势来看,各地区以2007年为转折点,经济增长质量指数差距呈现先扩大后缩小的趋势。第二,外商直接投资对地区经济增长速度和经济增长质量指数提高有明显促进作用；财政分权对地区经济增长速度的促进作用不显著,但明显促进了地区经济增长质量水平的提高。第三,财政分权制度改革有利于地区经济增长结构的优化升级和居民福利水平的提升,但是对地区经济增长效率、经济增长稳定性以及环境则没有显著影响；外商直接投资对地区经济增长效率有阻碍作用,但能有效促进地区经济增长结构改善,并对地区经济增长的环境影响有正向作用；财政分权能够强化外商直接投资对地区经济增长结构的改善,削弱外商直接投资对地区经济增长速度的促进作用,同时强化对地区经济增长效率的阻碍作用。
Since the Chinese government adopted the policy of reform and opening-up, our economy developed rapidly over double-digit. At the same time, the bottleneck because of extensive pattern of economic growth has became more and more serious, such as economic growth inefficient, industrial structure imbalance, widening income gap between regions, investment and consumption disharmony, over-exploitation of resources, etc. The root of these contradictions reflects the quality of economic growth which is closely related with people. Now people changed their concern from the economic growth rate to the quality of economic growth. The paper focus on the quality of regional economic growth basing on the economic growth rate and build appropriate index evaluation system of the quality of regional economic growth, in order to investigate the quality of economic growth across the country.
Institution is a precondition and decisive force for regional economic growth. The China adopted two important institutional arrangements including the policy of reform and opening-up and the policy of fiscal decentralization since1979, which brought important and profound influence to China's economic growth. Therefore, the paper researched the effect to rate and quality of the regional economic growth made by foreign direct investment on the text of fiscal decentralization. At the same time, in order to attract more foreign enterprises, local governments competed to give further more preferential policies to foreign enterprises, thus fell into a "race to the bottom "kind of prisoner's dilemma game. Accordingly, this phenomenon is bound to affect the rate and the quality of regional economic growth coming from foreign direct investment.
The paper is basically structured as follows:First, the paper builds appropriate index evaluation system of the regional economic growth quality by starting with the research of connotation and measurement methods of economic growth quality and analyze the regional economic growth quality from five dimensions including economic growth efficiency, economic growth structure, economic growth stability, welfare effects and environmental effects of economic growth using the principal component analysis method. Second, the paper analyzes the influence mechanism to regional economic growth rate and regional economic growth quality made by fiscal decentralization and foreign direct investment and interaction of them from the level of theories and models. At the same time, the paper examines the relationship of fiscal decentralization, foreign direct investment and regional economic growth rate and regional economic growth quality using the method of SYS-GMM and the provincial panel data of1998-2011. Finally, the paper draws conclusions from the direction, the degree and the approach to regional economic growth rate and regional economic growth quality by the two institutional arrangements.
The conclusions of this paper as follows:First, from the estimation results of regional economic growth quality, the index of eastern provinces and the Municipalities are higher, but the western provinces'are lower. On the other hand, from the point of time trend, the index of economic growth quality appeared expanded at first and then narrowed as a turning point of2007. Second, foreign direct investment is beneficial to the regional economic growth rate and the index of economic growth quality; Fiscal decentralization can promote the level of index of regional economic growth quality significantly but limited to the regional economic growth rate. Third, fiscal decentralization is beneficial to the optimization and upgrading of the economic growth structure and raising the level of the residents' welfare; but there was no significant effect to the economic growth efficiency, economic growth stability and the environmental effects of economic growth. On the other hand, the foreign direct investment can improve the economic growth structure and environmental effects of economic growth, but it goes against economic growth efficiency. Finally, fiscal decentralization will strengthen positive effects of FDI on promoting regional economic growth structure while weaken positive effects of FDI on promoting regional economic growth rate, at the same time strengthen negative effects of FDI on impeding regional economic growth efficiency.
引文
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