私立学校风险分析与管理决策研究
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摘要
中国是世界上私立教育发达、历史悠久的国家之一。中国历史上不乏办学优良、远近闻名的私立学校。然而,在改革的步伐不断加大,开放的进程有了质的飞跃的今天,在我国这样一个有着独特的社会历史文化传统的国度,私立学校教育的发展状况却不容乐观。他们在师资水平、办学条件、社会声誉等方面还远远没有达到人们心目中的“优秀学校”的形象。这不得不引起我们的深思。我国当前的私立学校究竟应该怎么办?私立学校能否保证义务教育的义务性、世俗性、免费性?能否保证学生就近入学、适龄入学、接受规定年限的教育?等等这些不确定因素导致了私立学校存在众多的风险问题,如何有效地进行风险管理是私立学校成败与否的重中之重。针对私立学校面临的多种多样的风险,需要在私立学校经营中实施风险管理,通过本文的研究能达到与私立学校整体经营战略相结合的风险最优化,保护私立学校不致因灾害性事件或错误而遭受重大损失,保证私立学校行为合规,以及保障有效和有效率的运营及可靠的信息沟通,有助于为私立学校风险管理及如何提高管理水平、避免风险有着重要的现实意义和参考价值。
风险管理,是使私立学校在实现其未来战略目标的过程中,将学校外部的不确定性和变化所产生的影响,控制在可接受范围内的过程。私立学校的风险管理是一个复杂有机的体系和动态过程,这个过程由学校全体教职员工实施,包括建立并维护风险管理体系,在私立学校层面和私立学校各个流程的层面,执行风险管理的一般程序,管理私立学校的所有重大风险,以实现风险管理的目标。风险管理的目标是达到与私立学校整体经营战略相结合的风险最优化,保护私立学校不致因灾害性事件或错误而遭受重大损失,保证私立学校行为合规,以及保障有效和有效率的运营及可靠的信息沟通。
本文针对国内外关于私立学校的风险管理的不足之处,结合自身的职业经验和目前温州私立学校普遍存在的风险问题及国内外知名的私立学校倒闭的原因,在相关基本理论的基础上,研究了私立学校的风险分析与管理决策。学校风险的产生是具有一定的条件的,只有当风险因素在系统所体现出来的适应能力、支持能力及匹配性无法通过学校的自我调节和修复达到动态平衡和协调,就会导致学校风险的产生,因此研究私立学校风险管理的首要工作是掌握和分析它的风险形成机理,以为后续研究提供良好的平台。风险识别使风险分析定量化,将风险管理建立在科学的基础上,并为选择最佳风险管理方法提供了较可靠的依据。再根据私立学校的风险分析并结合蚁群算法的特点和优点,采用蚁群算法来识别私立学校的风险。蚁群算法是对私立学校存在的风险进行把握和识别的,但为了将存在的问题和主要风险进一步认识和掌握其危险程度,对私立学校的风险因素进行评价是非常有必要的,结合属性数学模型的思想建立了私立学校的风险评价模型,运用属性数学模型对私立学校风险的不同认识及对风险程度判定的量化来确定风险的级别,对私立学校风险进行评价。私立学校的发展客观上要求加强学校风险预警理论与预警系统的构建,本文探讨了私立学校风险预警系统的构建目标、构成及其运行模式,并采用模糊粗集神经网络分析研究了私立学校的风险预警理论与预警系统的构建,提出了私立学校风险管理策略,最后以F高等职业技术学院这一办学成功的私立学校为案例进行实证研究。本文一方面弥补了私立学校风险管理的空白,另一方面为私立学校的风险管理提供一定的理论支持和一定的管理建议,以免重蹈那些已倒闭的知名私立学校的覆辙。
China is one of the developed and historical glorious countries in private education in the world. In Chinese history, there are many fine and renowned far and near private schools. However, today which the pace of reform enlarges unceasingly, the opening advancement has qualitative leap, in our country which has the unique society historical and cultural traditions, the private school education's development condition is actually unoptimistic. They, in teacher's level, school condition, social prestige aspects and so on, have not achieved "the outstanding school" image in the people mind by far. This can not but causes our thinking deeply. Actually should our country current private school how to manage? Can private school guarantee that the compulsory education is voluntary, secular, and free? That the student nearby enters a school, the matriculation of age and accepts the stipulated year education? And so on. These uncertainty elements have caused that private school has numerous risk questions, how to effectively carry on the risk management is very important for the private school's success or failure or not. The private school's various risks need it ot operate risk management in the implementation, the study of this paper can achieve the risk optimization combining with private schools overall operating strategy, so that private school cannot suffer a major loss caused by disastrous events or errors, ensure compliance, and ensure the effective and efficient operation and reliable information communication, propose the important practical significance and reference value for the private school risk management and how to improve the management level and avoid the risk.
The risk management will be causes the private school to realize that it controls the influence of school exterior uncertainty and the change in the accepted scope's process in its future strategic target process. Private school's risk management is a complex organic system and dynamic process, this process is implemented by school all teaching and administrative staff, including establishing and maintaining the risk management system, in the private school stratification plane and the private school each flow's stratification plane, carrying out the risk management general procedure, managing private school all material risks, achieving the risk management goal. Risk management's goal is that achieving the risk optimization which unifies with the private school whole business strategy, protecting the private school does not suffer the heavy loss because of the catastrophe event or wrong, guarantying that the private school behavior is fit for gauge, as well as safeguarding effective and efficient operation and reliable information communication.
In view of the deficiency of domestic and foreign private school risk management, the author unifies own occupation experience, Wenzhou private school universal existence's risk question and domestic and foreign well-known private schools faulure's reason, in the foundation of related elementary theory's, studies private school risk analysis and management decision. The school risk arises with certain conditions, only when the risk factors'adaptive ability, support ability and the match cannot achieve dynamic balance and coordination through itself regulation and repairation, that will cause the school risks, so the main job of private school risk management is to master and analyze it's risk forming mechanism, so that provide a good platform for subsequent research. Risk identification makes risk analysis be quantitative, and makes risk management be scientific, and provides a more reliable basis.for select the best risk management method. According to the private school risk analysis and combining with the characteristics and advantages of ant colony algorithm, this paper measures private schools risk by the ant colony algorithm.Ant colony algorithm controls and measures the private school risk, but in order to further understand and master the dangerous degree of the existing problems and the main risk, it is very necessary to evaluate the risk factor, this paper builts the attribute mathematical model to evaluate the private schools risk, classifies the numerous risk factors and determines the risk level by the attribute mathematical model.The development of the private schools objectively requires to strengthen the school risk early-warning theory and the construction of the early-warning system, this paper discusses the private school risk early-warning system's construction goal, composition and operation mode, and analyzes and studys private school's risk early-warning theory and early-warning system's construction based on the fuzzy rough neural networks, proposes the private school risk strategy, finally, takes the F school which successfully run school as the case to conduct the empirical study. This article has made up the private school risk management's blank; on the other hand, it provides certain theory support and certain management advices for private school's risk management, in order to avoid stepping the road of theset well-known private schools that are bankrupt.
风险管理,是使私立学校在实现其未来战略目标的过程中,将学校外部的不确定性和变化所产生的影响,控制在可接受范围内的过程。私立学校的风险管理是一个复杂有机的体系和动态过程,这个过程由学校全体教职员工实施,包括建立并维护风险管理体系,在私立学校层面和私立学校各个流程的层面,执行风险管理的一般程序,管理私立学校的所有重大风险,以实现风险管理的目标。风险管理的目标是达到与私立学校整体经营战略相结合的风险最优化,保护私立学校不致因灾害性事件或错误而遭受重大损失,保证私立学校行为合规,以及保障有效和有效率的运营及可靠的信息沟通。
本文针对国内外关于私立学校的风险管理的不足之处,结合自身的职业经验和目前温州私立学校普遍存在的风险问题及国内外知名的私立学校倒闭的原因,在相关基本理论的基础上,研究了私立学校的风险分析与管理决策。学校风险的产生是具有一定的条件的,只有当风险因素在系统所体现出来的适应能力、支持能力及匹配性无法通过学校的自我调节和修复达到动态平衡和协调,就会导致学校风险的产生,因此研究私立学校风险管理的首要工作是掌握和分析它的风险形成机理,以为后续研究提供良好的平台。风险识别使风险分析定量化,将风险管理建立在科学的基础上,并为选择最佳风险管理方法提供了较可靠的依据。再根据私立学校的风险分析并结合蚁群算法的特点和优点,采用蚁群算法来识别私立学校的风险。蚁群算法是对私立学校存在的风险进行把握和识别的,但为了将存在的问题和主要风险进一步认识和掌握其危险程度,对私立学校的风险因素进行评价是非常有必要的,结合属性数学模型的思想建立了私立学校的风险评价模型,运用属性数学模型对私立学校风险的不同认识及对风险程度判定的量化来确定风险的级别,对私立学校风险进行评价。私立学校的发展客观上要求加强学校风险预警理论与预警系统的构建,本文探讨了私立学校风险预警系统的构建目标、构成及其运行模式,并采用模糊粗集神经网络分析研究了私立学校的风险预警理论与预警系统的构建,提出了私立学校风险管理策略,最后以F高等职业技术学院这一办学成功的私立学校为案例进行实证研究。本文一方面弥补了私立学校风险管理的空白,另一方面为私立学校的风险管理提供一定的理论支持和一定的管理建议,以免重蹈那些已倒闭的知名私立学校的覆辙。
China is one of the developed and historical glorious countries in private education in the world. In Chinese history, there are many fine and renowned far and near private schools. However, today which the pace of reform enlarges unceasingly, the opening advancement has qualitative leap, in our country which has the unique society historical and cultural traditions, the private school education's development condition is actually unoptimistic. They, in teacher's level, school condition, social prestige aspects and so on, have not achieved "the outstanding school" image in the people mind by far. This can not but causes our thinking deeply. Actually should our country current private school how to manage? Can private school guarantee that the compulsory education is voluntary, secular, and free? That the student nearby enters a school, the matriculation of age and accepts the stipulated year education? And so on. These uncertainty elements have caused that private school has numerous risk questions, how to effectively carry on the risk management is very important for the private school's success or failure or not. The private school's various risks need it ot operate risk management in the implementation, the study of this paper can achieve the risk optimization combining with private schools overall operating strategy, so that private school cannot suffer a major loss caused by disastrous events or errors, ensure compliance, and ensure the effective and efficient operation and reliable information communication, propose the important practical significance and reference value for the private school risk management and how to improve the management level and avoid the risk.
The risk management will be causes the private school to realize that it controls the influence of school exterior uncertainty and the change in the accepted scope's process in its future strategic target process. Private school's risk management is a complex organic system and dynamic process, this process is implemented by school all teaching and administrative staff, including establishing and maintaining the risk management system, in the private school stratification plane and the private school each flow's stratification plane, carrying out the risk management general procedure, managing private school all material risks, achieving the risk management goal. Risk management's goal is that achieving the risk optimization which unifies with the private school whole business strategy, protecting the private school does not suffer the heavy loss because of the catastrophe event or wrong, guarantying that the private school behavior is fit for gauge, as well as safeguarding effective and efficient operation and reliable information communication.
In view of the deficiency of domestic and foreign private school risk management, the author unifies own occupation experience, Wenzhou private school universal existence's risk question and domestic and foreign well-known private schools faulure's reason, in the foundation of related elementary theory's, studies private school risk analysis and management decision. The school risk arises with certain conditions, only when the risk factors'adaptive ability, support ability and the match cannot achieve dynamic balance and coordination through itself regulation and repairation, that will cause the school risks, so the main job of private school risk management is to master and analyze it's risk forming mechanism, so that provide a good platform for subsequent research. Risk identification makes risk analysis be quantitative, and makes risk management be scientific, and provides a more reliable basis.for select the best risk management method. According to the private school risk analysis and combining with the characteristics and advantages of ant colony algorithm, this paper measures private schools risk by the ant colony algorithm.Ant colony algorithm controls and measures the private school risk, but in order to further understand and master the dangerous degree of the existing problems and the main risk, it is very necessary to evaluate the risk factor, this paper builts the attribute mathematical model to evaluate the private schools risk, classifies the numerous risk factors and determines the risk level by the attribute mathematical model.The development of the private schools objectively requires to strengthen the school risk early-warning theory and the construction of the early-warning system, this paper discusses the private school risk early-warning system's construction goal, composition and operation mode, and analyzes and studys private school's risk early-warning theory and early-warning system's construction based on the fuzzy rough neural networks, proposes the private school risk strategy, finally, takes the F school which successfully run school as the case to conduct the empirical study. This article has made up the private school risk management's blank; on the other hand, it provides certain theory support and certain management advices for private school's risk management, in order to avoid stepping the road of theset well-known private schools that are bankrupt.
引文
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