基于结构、工程、监管减排与排污权交易的污染物总量控制优化研究
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摘要
日趋紧迫的环境容量和日趋严峻的环境污染形势极大地制约了我国经济持续快速增长形势,环境问题已成为影响人类生存与发展的重要因素之一。针对国家环境质量现状危机,我国明确提出了“强化污染物减排和治理,实施主要污染物排放总量控制”的要求,以遏制我国环境污染的加剧趋势。作为污染物环境管理的思想核心,污染物总量控制政策与环境经济手段备受国内外青睐。为减少污染物对环境质量的危害,如何将污染物减排途径与排污权交易制度相结合,以较小的社会—经济发展代价,合理地改善当前环境污染现状是污染物总量控制研究的关键所在。此外,由于我国幅员辽阔、区域经济水平差异巨大、各地区经济发展水平不尽相同等因素,污染物排放的总量控制中势必存在较多的不确定性,如何能客观、科学的解决此类不确定问题也成为当前的研究热点。
本文以污染物总量控制理论为基础,以排污权交易制度为环境—经济结合点,从结构、工程、监管3大减排措施出发,提出“3+1”总量控制模式,并遵循区域指标体系构建原则,以各类污染物减排措施为污染物总量控制指标,建立基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制指标体系和基于“3+1”总量控制模式的区域主要污染物总量控制指标体系,突出评价指标体系实现的应用可操作性；基于我国“十一五”期间主要污染物总量控制完成情况和“十二五”总量控制规划要求,在所构建的主要污染物总量控制指标体系基础上,运用传统线性规划方法和不确定性优化方法,分别建立构建基于结构、工程、监管减排和基于“3+1”总量控制模式的区域主要污染物总量控制优化模型体系。
结合所构建的基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制指标体系,以区域主要污染物减排成本最小为目标函数,主要污染物总量控制指标体系的指标层为决策变量,选取国家“十二五”主要污染物总量控制目标等为约束条件,分别构建基于传统线性规划方法和区间不确定性规划方法的确定性和不确定性区域主要污染物总量控制优化模型,并以湖南省“十二五”主要污染物总量控制规划为研究案例,选取确定性和不确定性参数及约束条件,求解获得基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制优化减排方案,为区域主要污染物总量控制提出合理化减排建议；在基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制模型体系基础上,将排污权交易制度融入总量控制模型中,以基于“3+1”模式总量控制指标体系的指标层为决策变量,以行业污染物排放要求、社会经济发展增速等作为约束条件,以区域主要污染物减排成本最小为优化目标,运用区间数学规划方法对结构、工程、监管3种减排途径及排污权交易下的主要污染物减排量进行优化,获得基于“3+1”的区域主要污染物总量控制优化减排方案,从污染物减排与排污权交易角度对区域主要污染物总量控制提供科学决策,为社会、经济和环境关系的协调提供理论支持；通过对基于结构、工程、监管减排和基于“3+1”的两类区域主要污染物总量控制优化模型体系所获确定性与不确定性优化方案的分析和比较,结合案例区域主要污染物所存在的减排问题及原因,指出可能影响总量控制目标实现的主要因素,并依照模型体系优化结果对区域内主要行业总量控制提出合理、可行的建议、规范要求与保障措施,指导区域主要污染物总量控制工作的完善与有效实施,为今后区域主要污染物总量控制目标的实现和区域总量控制路径的制定提供了科学参考。
The increasing scarce environmental capacity and severe environmental pollution situation have greatly restricted the situation of China's sustained and rapid economic growth, environmental issues have become one of the important factors affecting human survival and development. In allusion to current crisis of national environmental quality, China has clearly put forward the requirements about enhancing the reduction and governance of pollutant emission, implementing the main pollutant emission control in order to retard the trend of worsening environmental pollution in China. As the core idea of the environmental management of pollutants, the pollutant total emission control policies and environmental economic measurements were favored by governments. The combination of pollutant emission reduction pathway and emission trading system with a minimum social-economic development expense is the key study of pollutant total emission control and can improve the current status of pollution distinctly. In addition, due to some factors such as vast territory, the huge difference among regional economy, the different development level of regional economic and so on, resulting in more uncertainty during pollutants total emission control. How to solve such the uncertainly objectively and scientifically has become a research hotspot for us.
Based on the pollutant total emission control theory and emission trading system, the paper have proposed the "3+1" total control mode from3kinds views of reduce emissions measures (structure, engineering, regulatory), established pollutants total control indication system based on structural, engineering, controlling emission and total control indication system based on the "3+1" pollutants total control model following the structure principle of the regional index System and various pollutants emission reduction measures which has highlighted the application operability of indication system; The total control optimization model system of regional main pollutant based on structural, engineering, controlling emission and "3+1" total control indication system have been established respectively by the traditional linear planning method and uncertainty optimization method with meeting the requirement of main pollutants emission situation during "11th Five-Year","12th Five-Year" total control planning and modeled total control indication system about main pollutants.
Combining with the main pollutants total control indication system based on structural, engineering, controlling emission, the minimum regional pollutant emission reduction cost was regarded as objective function, the index level of pollutants total control indication system as decision-making variable,"12th Five-Year" pollutants total control objective as constraint, the certainty and uncertainty total control optimization of main pollutants modes were established by means of traditional linear method and interval uncertainty planning method respectively. After the selected parameters and constraints, Hunan Province was used for case study, the regional pollutant total control optimization scheme based on structural, engineering, controlling emission was obtained which can propose reasonable emission reduction advice for regional main pollutants total control. In view of regional main pollutants total control model system based on structural, engineering, controlling emission, the emissions trading was introduced to total control model, index level of "3+1" model total control indication system was regarded as decision-making variable, industry pollutant emission requirements and socio-economic development growth as constraints, minimum main pollutants emission reduction cost as optimization goal, the ultimate regional pollutants total control optimization scheme based on "3+1" pollutants total control indication system was obtained by means of interval mathematical planning method to optimize main pollutants emission reductions under the situation of structural, engineering, controlling emission paths and emissions trading which could provide scientific decision-making for regional pollutants total control from views of pollutants emission reduction and emissions trading. By comparing the certainty and uncertainty optimization scheme established by main pollutants total control model system which according to structural, engineering, controlling emission and "3+1" total control pattern respectively, the paper combined with existing emission reduction problems of regional main pollutants in case province to indicate main factors affecting the achievement of total control objective. The optimal scheme resulted from model system could guide industry total control, guarantee the implementation and improvement of regional main pollutants total control and provide scientific reference for achieving regional main pollutants total control objectives and formulating regional total control pathways.
本文以污染物总量控制理论为基础,以排污权交易制度为环境—经济结合点,从结构、工程、监管3大减排措施出发,提出“3+1”总量控制模式,并遵循区域指标体系构建原则,以各类污染物减排措施为污染物总量控制指标,建立基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制指标体系和基于“3+1”总量控制模式的区域主要污染物总量控制指标体系,突出评价指标体系实现的应用可操作性；基于我国“十一五”期间主要污染物总量控制完成情况和“十二五”总量控制规划要求,在所构建的主要污染物总量控制指标体系基础上,运用传统线性规划方法和不确定性优化方法,分别建立构建基于结构、工程、监管减排和基于“3+1”总量控制模式的区域主要污染物总量控制优化模型体系。
结合所构建的基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制指标体系,以区域主要污染物减排成本最小为目标函数,主要污染物总量控制指标体系的指标层为决策变量,选取国家“十二五”主要污染物总量控制目标等为约束条件,分别构建基于传统线性规划方法和区间不确定性规划方法的确定性和不确定性区域主要污染物总量控制优化模型,并以湖南省“十二五”主要污染物总量控制规划为研究案例,选取确定性和不确定性参数及约束条件,求解获得基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制优化减排方案,为区域主要污染物总量控制提出合理化减排建议；在基于结构、工程、监管减排的区域主要污染物总量控制模型体系基础上,将排污权交易制度融入总量控制模型中,以基于“3+1”模式总量控制指标体系的指标层为决策变量,以行业污染物排放要求、社会经济发展增速等作为约束条件,以区域主要污染物减排成本最小为优化目标,运用区间数学规划方法对结构、工程、监管3种减排途径及排污权交易下的主要污染物减排量进行优化,获得基于“3+1”的区域主要污染物总量控制优化减排方案,从污染物减排与排污权交易角度对区域主要污染物总量控制提供科学决策,为社会、经济和环境关系的协调提供理论支持；通过对基于结构、工程、监管减排和基于“3+1”的两类区域主要污染物总量控制优化模型体系所获确定性与不确定性优化方案的分析和比较,结合案例区域主要污染物所存在的减排问题及原因,指出可能影响总量控制目标实现的主要因素,并依照模型体系优化结果对区域内主要行业总量控制提出合理、可行的建议、规范要求与保障措施,指导区域主要污染物总量控制工作的完善与有效实施,为今后区域主要污染物总量控制目标的实现和区域总量控制路径的制定提供了科学参考。
The increasing scarce environmental capacity and severe environmental pollution situation have greatly restricted the situation of China's sustained and rapid economic growth, environmental issues have become one of the important factors affecting human survival and development. In allusion to current crisis of national environmental quality, China has clearly put forward the requirements about enhancing the reduction and governance of pollutant emission, implementing the main pollutant emission control in order to retard the trend of worsening environmental pollution in China. As the core idea of the environmental management of pollutants, the pollutant total emission control policies and environmental economic measurements were favored by governments. The combination of pollutant emission reduction pathway and emission trading system with a minimum social-economic development expense is the key study of pollutant total emission control and can improve the current status of pollution distinctly. In addition, due to some factors such as vast territory, the huge difference among regional economy, the different development level of regional economic and so on, resulting in more uncertainty during pollutants total emission control. How to solve such the uncertainly objectively and scientifically has become a research hotspot for us.
Based on the pollutant total emission control theory and emission trading system, the paper have proposed the "3+1" total control mode from3kinds views of reduce emissions measures (structure, engineering, regulatory), established pollutants total control indication system based on structural, engineering, controlling emission and total control indication system based on the "3+1" pollutants total control model following the structure principle of the regional index System and various pollutants emission reduction measures which has highlighted the application operability of indication system; The total control optimization model system of regional main pollutant based on structural, engineering, controlling emission and "3+1" total control indication system have been established respectively by the traditional linear planning method and uncertainty optimization method with meeting the requirement of main pollutants emission situation during "11th Five-Year","12th Five-Year" total control planning and modeled total control indication system about main pollutants.
Combining with the main pollutants total control indication system based on structural, engineering, controlling emission, the minimum regional pollutant emission reduction cost was regarded as objective function, the index level of pollutants total control indication system as decision-making variable,"12th Five-Year" pollutants total control objective as constraint, the certainty and uncertainty total control optimization of main pollutants modes were established by means of traditional linear method and interval uncertainty planning method respectively. After the selected parameters and constraints, Hunan Province was used for case study, the regional pollutant total control optimization scheme based on structural, engineering, controlling emission was obtained which can propose reasonable emission reduction advice for regional main pollutants total control. In view of regional main pollutants total control model system based on structural, engineering, controlling emission, the emissions trading was introduced to total control model, index level of "3+1" model total control indication system was regarded as decision-making variable, industry pollutant emission requirements and socio-economic development growth as constraints, minimum main pollutants emission reduction cost as optimization goal, the ultimate regional pollutants total control optimization scheme based on "3+1" pollutants total control indication system was obtained by means of interval mathematical planning method to optimize main pollutants emission reductions under the situation of structural, engineering, controlling emission paths and emissions trading which could provide scientific decision-making for regional pollutants total control from views of pollutants emission reduction and emissions trading. By comparing the certainty and uncertainty optimization scheme established by main pollutants total control model system which according to structural, engineering, controlling emission and "3+1" total control pattern respectively, the paper combined with existing emission reduction problems of regional main pollutants in case province to indicate main factors affecting the achievement of total control objective. The optimal scheme resulted from model system could guide industry total control, guarantee the implementation and improvement of regional main pollutants total control and provide scientific reference for achieving regional main pollutants total control objectives and formulating regional total control pathways.
引文
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