基于系统动力学的煤炭工业可持续发展研究
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摘要
煤炭工业作为基础产业,在经济和社会发展中具有十分重要的地位和作用,它是一个以资源利用为基础的自然、人口、经济复杂大系统,保持煤炭工业可持续发展是实现经济社会可持续发展目标的前提和保证。
本论文在详细研究了国内外有关可持续发展研究现状和全面总结迄今为止该领域所取得的进展及成果的基础上,根据可持续发展的理论,运用系统工程思想和系统动力学方法,将煤炭资源、经济、人口、环境等放在一个大系统中进行经济社会可持续发展的动态分析研究,建立了煤炭工业可持续发展对策研究系统动力学模型,为论文后续研究框定出明确的主题范围,从而提高了课题研究的精准性和有效性。
通过对煤炭工业生产与自然资源、人口的内部结构和变量之间因果关系,社会行为和过程、环境的仿真实验,编写DYNAMO方程,对煤炭工业未来的可持续发展趋势进行了多方案的预测描述,考查技术—经济参数的变化、政策因素的介入或变化对系统行为的影响。
深入系统的研究了随煤矿的具体地域、资源条件、环境条件、人口条件和经济条件的不同而改变的煤炭工业可持续发展对策,从“总量增长主导型”向“结构优化主导型”转变,发展以煤为基础,煤与非煤产业并重的多元化新型产业结构,为煤炭工业可持续发展科学决策提供依据,同时为其它行业或企业的可持续发展对策研究提供借鉴。
本论文将所建立的煤炭工业可持续发展对策研究系统动力学模型应用于贵州省省域煤炭工业,利用计算机软件Vensim对此模型的参数估计、敏感性因素、未来煤炭工业系统利用演化的趋势进行了分析和模拟,在完成对实证案例发展过程动态分析的同时,使评价理论和方法得到应用性检验。
通过各子系统主要指标的模拟仿真结果对贵州省煤炭工业资源可持续发展、经济可持续发展、人口可持续发展、环境生态可持续发展进行了实证分析,并在此基础上提出了关于贵州省煤炭工业可持续发展策略,为我国省域煤炭工业可持续发展提供参考依据。
The coal industry, as a basic factor, plays a very important part in the development of the society and economy. It is a major complex system that builds on the basement of the utilization of the nature, population and economy.How to keep the sustainability of the coal industry is prerequisite and guarantee of the realization of the goal of how to achieve the purpose of keeping the steady development of the sustainable development of the society of Economy
The present dissertation, based on the intensive study of the recent research concerning the recent the sustainable development both abroad and at home, and summary of the developments and fruits achieved in this field to try to analysis and study the sustainability of coal resource, economy, population and environment in a comprehensive system, according to the theory of sustainable development, and try to build a model of dynamical systematic study of countermeasures for the sustainable of coal mining industry in order to make clear of the scope of the theme of the further research, and in an effort to make clear the exactitude and effectiveness of the research.
This dissertation composes a Dynamo equation which is based on the imitative experiment of causality of the coal mining industrial production and natural resource, the inner construct composition of population and variety, the social behavior and process to make a predictive description of the tendency of the sustainable development of coal mining industry in the future, and it also makes a study of the alteration of the parameter of technology and economy, the interference of political factor, and also the influence of alteration upon the systematic behavior.
The dissertation also makes a thorough and systematic study of the affective countermeasures for the sustainable development of the coal industry in specific region, resource condition, environment, factor and economic condition. It aims at offering some proper and valuable suggestions for the alteration of the orientation of total increase to the orientation of improvement of structure.It argues that it is necessary to form a new industrial construction of coal and none-coal industry on various levels to give some sound reasons for the decision of the sustainable development of the coal industry, as well as that of other trades.
The dissertation applies the set model of systematical study of the countermeasure of the sustainable development of coal industry to the coal industry in Guizhou province, and makes use of the computer software Vensim to evaluate the parameter of the model, the sensibility factor, and the development of coal industry in the future.It aims to prove both theoretically and practically the method to be effective in process of a dynamical analysis of the fulfillment of the actual cases.
Based on the analysis of sustainable development of coal industry, population, economy and environment in Guizhou province, according to the results of simulated emulation of the major indexes in the subsystems, the dissertation tries to offer some reference suggestions of the sustainable development of coal industry in provincial regions in our country, while having put forward some tactics of the sustainable development of coal industry in Guizhou province.
本论文在详细研究了国内外有关可持续发展研究现状和全面总结迄今为止该领域所取得的进展及成果的基础上,根据可持续发展的理论,运用系统工程思想和系统动力学方法,将煤炭资源、经济、人口、环境等放在一个大系统中进行经济社会可持续发展的动态分析研究,建立了煤炭工业可持续发展对策研究系统动力学模型,为论文后续研究框定出明确的主题范围,从而提高了课题研究的精准性和有效性。
通过对煤炭工业生产与自然资源、人口的内部结构和变量之间因果关系,社会行为和过程、环境的仿真实验,编写DYNAMO方程,对煤炭工业未来的可持续发展趋势进行了多方案的预测描述,考查技术—经济参数的变化、政策因素的介入或变化对系统行为的影响。
深入系统的研究了随煤矿的具体地域、资源条件、环境条件、人口条件和经济条件的不同而改变的煤炭工业可持续发展对策,从“总量增长主导型”向“结构优化主导型”转变,发展以煤为基础,煤与非煤产业并重的多元化新型产业结构,为煤炭工业可持续发展科学决策提供依据,同时为其它行业或企业的可持续发展对策研究提供借鉴。
本论文将所建立的煤炭工业可持续发展对策研究系统动力学模型应用于贵州省省域煤炭工业,利用计算机软件Vensim对此模型的参数估计、敏感性因素、未来煤炭工业系统利用演化的趋势进行了分析和模拟,在完成对实证案例发展过程动态分析的同时,使评价理论和方法得到应用性检验。
通过各子系统主要指标的模拟仿真结果对贵州省煤炭工业资源可持续发展、经济可持续发展、人口可持续发展、环境生态可持续发展进行了实证分析,并在此基础上提出了关于贵州省煤炭工业可持续发展策略,为我国省域煤炭工业可持续发展提供参考依据。
The coal industry, as a basic factor, plays a very important part in the development of the society and economy. It is a major complex system that builds on the basement of the utilization of the nature, population and economy.How to keep the sustainability of the coal industry is prerequisite and guarantee of the realization of the goal of how to achieve the purpose of keeping the steady development of the sustainable development of the society of Economy
The present dissertation, based on the intensive study of the recent research concerning the recent the sustainable development both abroad and at home, and summary of the developments and fruits achieved in this field to try to analysis and study the sustainability of coal resource, economy, population and environment in a comprehensive system, according to the theory of sustainable development, and try to build a model of dynamical systematic study of countermeasures for the sustainable of coal mining industry in order to make clear of the scope of the theme of the further research, and in an effort to make clear the exactitude and effectiveness of the research.
This dissertation composes a Dynamo equation which is based on the imitative experiment of causality of the coal mining industrial production and natural resource, the inner construct composition of population and variety, the social behavior and process to make a predictive description of the tendency of the sustainable development of coal mining industry in the future, and it also makes a study of the alteration of the parameter of technology and economy, the interference of political factor, and also the influence of alteration upon the systematic behavior.
The dissertation also makes a thorough and systematic study of the affective countermeasures for the sustainable development of the coal industry in specific region, resource condition, environment, factor and economic condition. It aims at offering some proper and valuable suggestions for the alteration of the orientation of total increase to the orientation of improvement of structure.It argues that it is necessary to form a new industrial construction of coal and none-coal industry on various levels to give some sound reasons for the decision of the sustainable development of the coal industry, as well as that of other trades.
The dissertation applies the set model of systematical study of the countermeasure of the sustainable development of coal industry to the coal industry in Guizhou province, and makes use of the computer software Vensim to evaluate the parameter of the model, the sensibility factor, and the development of coal industry in the future.It aims to prove both theoretically and practically the method to be effective in process of a dynamical analysis of the fulfillment of the actual cases.
Based on the analysis of sustainable development of coal industry, population, economy and environment in Guizhou province, according to the results of simulated emulation of the major indexes in the subsystems, the dissertation tries to offer some reference suggestions of the sustainable development of coal industry in provincial regions in our country, while having put forward some tactics of the sustainable development of coal industry in Guizhou province.
引文
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