中国林产品出口影响因素研究
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摘要
作为中国对外贸易的重要组成部分,林产业出口贸易的快速发展对中国经济增长和国内就业形成了重要推动作用,然而已有研究并未紧随中国林产品出口贸易增长步伐,对中国林产品出口增长影响因素研究存在一定滞后性,不利于林产业政策的有效制定。本文在全球视角下,系统分析了中国林产品出口贸易现状,并采用CMS模型和出口引力模型,借助面板数据模型计量方法,对中国林产品出口影响因素进行实证研究。研究结果表明:(1)中国林产品在世界市场中地位不断提升,中国林产品出口品种结构与世界并非一致,中国林产品贸易主要表现为产业间贸易,中国林产品整体竞争力较弱,但呈现不断走强之势;(2)在世界市场上,自2002年以来,中国林产品出口竞争力提升是推动中国林产品出口增长的主要因素,世界需求增长强化中国林产品的出口增长,而中国林产品出口品种结构和市场分布的不合理则构成阻碍作用;(3)中国实际GDP、国外实际GDP、国外实际人均GDP、人民币汇率、中国加入WTO等因素均对中国林产品出口贸易形成正面影响,其中中国加入WTO的正面效应最强,其次是国外生产规模的引致作用,而中国与国外市场的地理距离以及国外林业生产潜能扩大则不利于中国林产品出口增长,其中距离因素的负面影响最大。在进行总体分析的同时,本文还从地区视角,对中国林产品对北美自由贸易区、欧盟、东盟、韩国和日本等地区的出口增长影响因素展开了深入研究。
As an important section of Chinese foreign trading, the exporting trading of forestry plays an important driving role for Chinese economy increase and domestic employment, but existed research did not follow up the steps of the increased Chinese forestry exporting, the research of the Chinese forestry increasing factors was lagged and impacted the forestry policy’s making. This article analyses the current status of the Chinese forestry exporting with global angle of view and with CMS Model and Trade Gravity Model, used measuring method of Panel Data model made a demonstration research on the influence factors of the Chinese forestry exporting.
The results indicated:
(1)The rank of the Chinese forestry is raising, but the exporting structure of the Chinese forestry exporting is not same with the world’s, Chinese forestry exporting mainly the business between different industries, the integrated competition capacity is relatively weak but is improving now.
(2)The increasing of the Chinese forestry exporting competition capacity is the major factor of the increasing of Chinese forestry exporting, the world’s demands motivated Chinese forestry exporting, the irrationality of the Chinese forestry exporting structure and market allocation composing obstacles.
(3)Chinese GDP, foreign GDP, actual average foreign GDP, Renminbi exchange rate and the entry of WTO have positive impact to the Chinese forestry exporting trading. Among these factors Chinese entry to WTO was the most positive affect the second one was the leading of foreign manufacture scale. But the forestry markets distance and foreign forestry potential capacity amplification will impact Chinese forestry exporting, among these factors distance is the most negative factor. When making the collectivity analysis the article used global vision made a deep research on the impacts which Chinese forestry imposed on the forestry exporting of North America, EU, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Korea and Japan.
As an important section of Chinese foreign trading, the exporting trading of forestry plays an important driving role for Chinese economy increase and domestic employment, but existed research did not follow up the steps of the increased Chinese forestry exporting, the research of the Chinese forestry increasing factors was lagged and impacted the forestry policy’s making. This article analyses the current status of the Chinese forestry exporting with global angle of view and with CMS Model and Trade Gravity Model, used measuring method of Panel Data model made a demonstration research on the influence factors of the Chinese forestry exporting.
The results indicated:
(1)The rank of the Chinese forestry is raising, but the exporting structure of the Chinese forestry exporting is not same with the world’s, Chinese forestry exporting mainly the business between different industries, the integrated competition capacity is relatively weak but is improving now.
(2)The increasing of the Chinese forestry exporting competition capacity is the major factor of the increasing of Chinese forestry exporting, the world’s demands motivated Chinese forestry exporting, the irrationality of the Chinese forestry exporting structure and market allocation composing obstacles.
(3)Chinese GDP, foreign GDP, actual average foreign GDP, Renminbi exchange rate and the entry of WTO have positive impact to the Chinese forestry exporting trading. Among these factors Chinese entry to WTO was the most positive affect the second one was the leading of foreign manufacture scale. But the forestry markets distance and foreign forestry potential capacity amplification will impact Chinese forestry exporting, among these factors distance is the most negative factor. When making the collectivity analysis the article used global vision made a deep research on the impacts which Chinese forestry imposed on the forestry exporting of North America, EU, Association of Southeast Asian Nations, Korea and Japan.
引文
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