科技企业孵化器风险管理的理论和方法研究
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摘要
随着高新技术产业的发展,在促进技术产业化过程中扮演重要角色的科技企业孵化器也获得了长足的进步。伴随着种类和数量的增长,科技企业孵化器出现了两个明显的变化：一是多元投资主体逐步形成；二是企业化进程加快。这两大变化意味着科技企业孵化器正从间接面对市场转向直接面对市场,其经营过程中的风险不断加大。这些风险一方面来源于新型经济组织的创新风险,另一方面来源于孵化器市场扩大所带来的竞争风险。为了降低风险并在风险中寻求更大的发展机会,实施有效的风险管理以提高孵化器的成活率和孵化效率是很有必要的。
本文首先分析了研究的背景、目的与意义,并在回顾科技企业孵化器和风险管理相关领域研究现状的基础上,提出了当前需要解决的主要问题。其次,详细分析了科技企业孵化器的内涵、属性、功能、类型、运行机制、价值链理论、外部性理论和新制度经济学理论,建构了科技企业孵化器风险管理的理论基础。再次,从风险这一概念入手,结合孵化器的产业特征,在对科技企业孵化器风险的内涵和特征科学分析的基础上,提出了科技企业孵化器风险管理的目标、内容、原则和过程。第四,运用流程的方法和系统分析法对科技企业孵化器的风险进行了全面识别,指出科技企业孵化器的风险来源于组织内外部,包括环境风险、管理风险、种子风险和经营风险四个大类,每一大类又由若干子项目组成,它们共同构成了科技企业孵化器的风险因素体系。第五,在风险识别的基础上,运用结构解释模型对科技企业孵化器的风险进行了定性评价,指出孵化风险是科技企业孵化器的主要风险,这一风险直接来源于决策风险、种子风险和政策风险,最终来源于管理风险和市场风险。第六,建构了科技企业孵化器风险评价的双层指标体系,并在专家调研的基础上,运用模糊综合评价法对科技企业孵化器的风险进行了定量评价,得出了科技企业孵化器具有较高风险的结论。第七,在分析了科技企业孵化器风险决策的特征和决策者的基础上,建构了科技企业孵化器风险决策的3H6S范式,该范式包含三个层次和六个步骤的风险决策。进一步的,借助多目标风险决策模型,运用决策树法和分层序列法建立了科技企业孵化器的风险决策模型,并对该模型进行了解释。第八,提出了科技企业孵化器风险防范的主要措施。一是从战略风险、种子风险、孵化风险和投资风险等方面分析了科技企业孵化器风险回避的策略；二是从保险转移、合同转移、出让转移、担保转移和外包转移等方面阐述了科技企业孵化器风险转移的主要方式;三是从科技企业孵化器与风险投资联合的角度分析了科技企业孵化器风险分摊的机理；四是建立了科技企业孵化器风险预警的运行模式和风险预控的指标体系,并提出了风险预控的主要措施。第九,结合武汉市科技企业孵化器的发展状况,选定了一家专业孵化器进行了风险管理的实证分析,得出了该孵化器具有较高风险的结论。最后,对全文的内容以及创新之处进行了总结,并指出了文中相关领域的研究需要进一步深化的地方和未来的研究展望。
With the development of high-tech industries, science and technology business incubators which play an important role in the process of promoting the technological industrialization also have considerable progress. With the growth of type and quantity, technology business incubators have two significant changes:one is multiple investors having been formed gradually; the other is the process of industrialization having been speeded up. These two changes mean that technology business incubators have to face the market directly. The risks in their business are continuously increasing. These risks come from two aspects:one is the innovation risk of new economic organization, the other is the competition risk in the expand market. In order to reduce risk and to seek a greater developing opportunities, it is necessary to improve the survival rate and hatching efficiency of incubators through the implementation of effective risk management.
This dissertation first analyzes the background, purpose and meaning of this research. Based on the reviews of related theory of technology business incubators and risk management, the current major issues to be resolved are presented. Secondly, this dissertation analyzes in detail business incubators' content, property, function, type, operating system, value chain theory, externality theory, new institutional economics theory and constructs theoretical basis of risk management of business incubators. Thirdly, starting from the concept of risk, combining the industrial characteristics of business incubators and based on the analysis of the risk features of business incubators, this dissertation proposes the objectives, content, principles and processes of risk management of business incubators. Fourthly, using the process method and system analysis method, this dissertation identifies the risks of science and technology business incubators comprehensively and points out that the risks of science and technology business incubators come from inside and outside of the organization. These risks include four major categories:environmental risk, management risk, seeds risk and operational risk. Each major category is composed of several subprojects, which together constitute the science and technology business incubators' risk factors system. Fifthly, based on the risk identification, this dissertation applies ISM to evaluate the risks of business incubators qualitatively and points out that the incubation risk is business incubators' major risk. The risk directly comes from the decision risk, policy risk and the risk of seed. It comes from managing risk and market risk eventually.sixthly, based on the risk evaluation index system of technology business incubators and experts' research, this dissertation applies fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate business incubators' risks quantitatively and points out that business incubator have a higher risk. Seventhly, based on the analysis of risk decision-making characteristics and decision-makers of business incubators, this dissertation constructs business incubators' 3H6S risk decision-making paradigm. The paradigm includes three levels and six steps of risk decision.Besides, takeing advantage of multi-objective decision-making model, this dissertation use decision tree method and the layered series to establish the risk of decision-making model of business incubators and the model is explained. Eighthly, this dissertation puts forward the key risk prevention measures of business incubators. The first place, risk aversion strategies of business incubators are analysied from four aspects:strategic risk, seeds risks, incubation risks and investment risks.The second place, the main way of risk transfer of business incubators are stated from five aspects: insurance transfer, contract transfer, assignment transfer, security transfer and outsourcing transfer.The third place, risk sharing mechanism of technology business incubators is analysied from the joint perspective of business incubators and venture capital.The fourth place, business incubators' operating modes of risk warning and the index system of risk pre-control are established, and the main measures of risk pre-control are proposed.Ninethly, combined with the developing situation of Wuhan business incubators, this dissertation selects a professional incubator to conduct empirical analysis of risk management and reaches that the incubator has high-risk. Finally, the full-text content and innovations are summarized, and the relevant research in the field where the need for further deepening and the future Prospect of the study are pointed out.
本文首先分析了研究的背景、目的与意义,并在回顾科技企业孵化器和风险管理相关领域研究现状的基础上,提出了当前需要解决的主要问题。其次,详细分析了科技企业孵化器的内涵、属性、功能、类型、运行机制、价值链理论、外部性理论和新制度经济学理论,建构了科技企业孵化器风险管理的理论基础。再次,从风险这一概念入手,结合孵化器的产业特征,在对科技企业孵化器风险的内涵和特征科学分析的基础上,提出了科技企业孵化器风险管理的目标、内容、原则和过程。第四,运用流程的方法和系统分析法对科技企业孵化器的风险进行了全面识别,指出科技企业孵化器的风险来源于组织内外部,包括环境风险、管理风险、种子风险和经营风险四个大类,每一大类又由若干子项目组成,它们共同构成了科技企业孵化器的风险因素体系。第五,在风险识别的基础上,运用结构解释模型对科技企业孵化器的风险进行了定性评价,指出孵化风险是科技企业孵化器的主要风险,这一风险直接来源于决策风险、种子风险和政策风险,最终来源于管理风险和市场风险。第六,建构了科技企业孵化器风险评价的双层指标体系,并在专家调研的基础上,运用模糊综合评价法对科技企业孵化器的风险进行了定量评价,得出了科技企业孵化器具有较高风险的结论。第七,在分析了科技企业孵化器风险决策的特征和决策者的基础上,建构了科技企业孵化器风险决策的3H6S范式,该范式包含三个层次和六个步骤的风险决策。进一步的,借助多目标风险决策模型,运用决策树法和分层序列法建立了科技企业孵化器的风险决策模型,并对该模型进行了解释。第八,提出了科技企业孵化器风险防范的主要措施。一是从战略风险、种子风险、孵化风险和投资风险等方面分析了科技企业孵化器风险回避的策略；二是从保险转移、合同转移、出让转移、担保转移和外包转移等方面阐述了科技企业孵化器风险转移的主要方式;三是从科技企业孵化器与风险投资联合的角度分析了科技企业孵化器风险分摊的机理；四是建立了科技企业孵化器风险预警的运行模式和风险预控的指标体系,并提出了风险预控的主要措施。第九,结合武汉市科技企业孵化器的发展状况,选定了一家专业孵化器进行了风险管理的实证分析,得出了该孵化器具有较高风险的结论。最后,对全文的内容以及创新之处进行了总结,并指出了文中相关领域的研究需要进一步深化的地方和未来的研究展望。
With the development of high-tech industries, science and technology business incubators which play an important role in the process of promoting the technological industrialization also have considerable progress. With the growth of type and quantity, technology business incubators have two significant changes:one is multiple investors having been formed gradually; the other is the process of industrialization having been speeded up. These two changes mean that technology business incubators have to face the market directly. The risks in their business are continuously increasing. These risks come from two aspects:one is the innovation risk of new economic organization, the other is the competition risk in the expand market. In order to reduce risk and to seek a greater developing opportunities, it is necessary to improve the survival rate and hatching efficiency of incubators through the implementation of effective risk management.
This dissertation first analyzes the background, purpose and meaning of this research. Based on the reviews of related theory of technology business incubators and risk management, the current major issues to be resolved are presented. Secondly, this dissertation analyzes in detail business incubators' content, property, function, type, operating system, value chain theory, externality theory, new institutional economics theory and constructs theoretical basis of risk management of business incubators. Thirdly, starting from the concept of risk, combining the industrial characteristics of business incubators and based on the analysis of the risk features of business incubators, this dissertation proposes the objectives, content, principles and processes of risk management of business incubators. Fourthly, using the process method and system analysis method, this dissertation identifies the risks of science and technology business incubators comprehensively and points out that the risks of science and technology business incubators come from inside and outside of the organization. These risks include four major categories:environmental risk, management risk, seeds risk and operational risk. Each major category is composed of several subprojects, which together constitute the science and technology business incubators' risk factors system. Fifthly, based on the risk identification, this dissertation applies ISM to evaluate the risks of business incubators qualitatively and points out that the incubation risk is business incubators' major risk. The risk directly comes from the decision risk, policy risk and the risk of seed. It comes from managing risk and market risk eventually.sixthly, based on the risk evaluation index system of technology business incubators and experts' research, this dissertation applies fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate business incubators' risks quantitatively and points out that business incubator have a higher risk. Seventhly, based on the analysis of risk decision-making characteristics and decision-makers of business incubators, this dissertation constructs business incubators' 3H6S risk decision-making paradigm. The paradigm includes three levels and six steps of risk decision.Besides, takeing advantage of multi-objective decision-making model, this dissertation use decision tree method and the layered series to establish the risk of decision-making model of business incubators and the model is explained. Eighthly, this dissertation puts forward the key risk prevention measures of business incubators. The first place, risk aversion strategies of business incubators are analysied from four aspects:strategic risk, seeds risks, incubation risks and investment risks.The second place, the main way of risk transfer of business incubators are stated from five aspects: insurance transfer, contract transfer, assignment transfer, security transfer and outsourcing transfer.The third place, risk sharing mechanism of technology business incubators is analysied from the joint perspective of business incubators and venture capital.The fourth place, business incubators' operating modes of risk warning and the index system of risk pre-control are established, and the main measures of risk pre-control are proposed.Ninethly, combined with the developing situation of Wuhan business incubators, this dissertation selects a professional incubator to conduct empirical analysis of risk management and reaches that the incubator has high-risk. Finally, the full-text content and innovations are summarized, and the relevant research in the field where the need for further deepening and the future Prospect of the study are pointed out.
引文
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