移动电信数据业务价值链评价方法及应用研究
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摘要
近几年,中国移动电信行业的用户已突破四亿,移动基础的语音业务增长态势趋于平缓,而移动数据业务收入增长水平超过了其他电信业务的增长水平,带动了移动电信行业新的利润增长点。起步较基础业务晚的数据业务,在过去几年的发展中取得了惊人的成绩,但其中仍然存在很多潜在的不足。从目前的发展现状来看,制约移动数据业务发展的主要因素是数据业务的应用开发与客户需求不完全一致,各类运营商之间没有形成“共赢”的盈利模式,终端的手机产品没能与业务很好的匹配。移动数据业务是由多种类型企业组成的业务价值链,它的繁荣和发展需要整个价值链的完美整合。
本文在国内外移动电信数据业务价值链理论学者研究基础上,通过对移动电信数据业务价值链的研究,综合了层次分析法和灰色关联分析的优势,以层次分析法和灰色关联分析相结合的层次—灰色关联分析来构建移动电信数据业务的评价方法。首先依据层次分析法的原理构建出了我国移动电信数据业务价值链的评价指标,然后在指标确定原则的规范性下,将评价指标进行修正。最终确定5个二级指标,12个三级指标,并确定各指标的权重。接下来将层次分析法中得到的各指标的权重值应用到灰色关联分析的计算中,得到各业务价值链的评价值。
最后对本文构建的评价方法进行算例应用分析。得到的结果很好地反映了当前移动数据业务以技术为导向,以用户为出发点的特性。本论文所提出的评价方法在实践中对移动电信数据业务价值链的选择具有一定的参考决策价值。
During the last several years, the consumers of mobile telecommunication industry in China has became over 400 millions. The increasing of mobile basal voice services has been becoming more and more slowly. The increasing level of mobile digital services is beyond the increasing level of other telecommunication services, that brought along the new increasing point of profit in mobile telecommunication industry. In the last few years, the digital services which appeared later than basal services, developed at an absolutely fast speed. However, there are also a few of potential disadvantages in the developing of digital service. According to the actual developing situation, the main facts which restrict the developing of mobile digital services are that the exploiture of the digital services doesn't match the demand of consumers, and the model of all kinds of operation enterprise payoff together doesn't be engendered, and the terminal mobile phone doesn't match the digital service very well. The mobile digital services actually is a value chain which is made up of many kinds of enterprises, its booming and development need a perfect conformity of the whole chain.
The paper based on concluding domestic and foreign scholars' research results of mobile telecommunication digital service, via the research of mobile digital services on value chain, integrate the advantages of AHP and Gray Relation Extend Evaluation, construct the evaluation method of mobile digital services on value chain in China with combination of AHP and Gray Relation Extend Evaluation. firstly, according to AHP, construct the evaluation index method of mobile digital services on value chain, divided the key impact factors of mobile digital services value chain into five second-level indexes and twelve third-level indexes, and then identified weight and overall weight of all single-level indexes in evaluation method. At last, using the weights we got from the AHP into the Gray Relation Extend Evaluation, we got the value result.
Finally, analysed the application of the valuation method. The results have been very good to reflect on the current mobile data services to technology-oriented, user-oriented features. In this paper, the proposed evaluation method in the practice of mobile data telecommunications business value chain of choice has some reference value of the decision-making.
本文在国内外移动电信数据业务价值链理论学者研究基础上,通过对移动电信数据业务价值链的研究,综合了层次分析法和灰色关联分析的优势,以层次分析法和灰色关联分析相结合的层次—灰色关联分析来构建移动电信数据业务的评价方法。首先依据层次分析法的原理构建出了我国移动电信数据业务价值链的评价指标,然后在指标确定原则的规范性下,将评价指标进行修正。最终确定5个二级指标,12个三级指标,并确定各指标的权重。接下来将层次分析法中得到的各指标的权重值应用到灰色关联分析的计算中,得到各业务价值链的评价值。
最后对本文构建的评价方法进行算例应用分析。得到的结果很好地反映了当前移动数据业务以技术为导向,以用户为出发点的特性。本论文所提出的评价方法在实践中对移动电信数据业务价值链的选择具有一定的参考决策价值。
During the last several years, the consumers of mobile telecommunication industry in China has became over 400 millions. The increasing of mobile basal voice services has been becoming more and more slowly. The increasing level of mobile digital services is beyond the increasing level of other telecommunication services, that brought along the new increasing point of profit in mobile telecommunication industry. In the last few years, the digital services which appeared later than basal services, developed at an absolutely fast speed. However, there are also a few of potential disadvantages in the developing of digital service. According to the actual developing situation, the main facts which restrict the developing of mobile digital services are that the exploiture of the digital services doesn't match the demand of consumers, and the model of all kinds of operation enterprise payoff together doesn't be engendered, and the terminal mobile phone doesn't match the digital service very well. The mobile digital services actually is a value chain which is made up of many kinds of enterprises, its booming and development need a perfect conformity of the whole chain.
The paper based on concluding domestic and foreign scholars' research results of mobile telecommunication digital service, via the research of mobile digital services on value chain, integrate the advantages of AHP and Gray Relation Extend Evaluation, construct the evaluation method of mobile digital services on value chain in China with combination of AHP and Gray Relation Extend Evaluation. firstly, according to AHP, construct the evaluation index method of mobile digital services on value chain, divided the key impact factors of mobile digital services value chain into five second-level indexes and twelve third-level indexes, and then identified weight and overall weight of all single-level indexes in evaluation method. At last, using the weights we got from the AHP into the Gray Relation Extend Evaluation, we got the value result.
Finally, analysed the application of the valuation method. The results have been very good to reflect on the current mobile data services to technology-oriented, user-oriented features. In this paper, the proposed evaluation method in the practice of mobile data telecommunications business value chain of choice has some reference value of the decision-making.
引文
1.罗宏.中国移动增值业务的现状和发展[J],移动通信,2003,4：23-25
2.吴晓云,朱哲.中国移动通信企业在WTO条件下的营销战略[J],南开学报,2002,6
3.朱建.中国电信战略转型与业务创新的学习与思考[J],信息网络,2005,6：1-9
4.胡世良.电信产品开发创新面临的机遇、挑战和对策[J],通信管理与技术,2007,4：10-13
5. Jae-Hyeon Ahn. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related management strategy [J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
6. Deok-Jooleea, Jae-KyoungAhnb. Factors affecting companies telecommunication service selection
strategy [J], Omega,2007,35:486-493
7.蒋群.我国增值电信业务市场监管的研究及建议[D],北京：北京邮电大学,硕士学位论文,2007
8.王培文.中国移动通信服务行业的竞争发展及其战略调整[J],科学之友,2007,7：134-135
9.卞玮.3G技术环境下电信增值业务的商业模式研究[D],武汉：华中科技大学硕士学位论文,2006
10. Jae-Hyeon Ahn, Kyoung Cheon Cha, Duk Bin Jun, Myoung Hwan Park c. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related manfgement strategy[J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
11.臧晋.英国电信的融合与转型[J],通信世界,2007,4：27-28
12.迟晓英,宣国良,价值链研究发展综述[J],外国经济与管理,2000,01
13. Dong-Hee Shin. A critique of Korean National Information Strategy:Case of national information infrastructures [J], Government Information Quarterly,2007,24:624-645
14. Jae-Hyeon Ahn. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related management strategy [J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
15.王育民.从电信价值链到产业生态系统[J],通信企业管理,2004,3：28-30
16.[美]迈克尔·波特著,陈悦译.竞争优势[M],北京：华夏出版社,2005：34-55.
17.张翠英,史勇.基于价值链的竞争对手模糊数学评价模型[J],实践研究,2008,3：370-373
18.李苗苗.基于价值链的业务流程再造方法与应用研究[D],阜新：辽宁工程科技大学,学位论文,2003
19.迈克尔·波特,陈悦译.竞争优势[M],北京：华夏出版社,2005：34-55
20. Tom McGuffog, Nick Wadsley. The general principles of value chain management[J], Supply chain management:An International Journal,1999
21. Jeffrey F, Ray Port and Jone J. Sviokla. Exploiting the Virtual Value Chain [J], Harvard Business Review,1995:75-99.
22.郁义鸿.产业链类型及产业链效率基准[J],经济与管理研究,2005, (11)： 25-30.
23.潘成云.解读产业价值链——兼析我国新兴产业价值链基本特征[J],当代财经,2000, (9)：7-12.
24.蒋国俊,蒋明新.产业链理论及其稳定机制研究[J],重庆大学学报,2004, (10).
25.唐守廉,郑丽,王江磊.电信产业价值链的演变和价值网络[J],电信科学,2003,(9)： 1-4.
26.张鸿,韩黛娜,李娟.电信产业价值链演变路径研究[J],财经论丛,2008,1：96-102
27. POSNER L. The Social Costs of Monopoly and Regulation [J], Journal of Political Economy,1975, 83(4):807-827.
28. Woodruff R. B. Customer Value:The Nest Source for Competitive Advantage [J], Journal of The Academy of Marketing Science,1997,2(2):139-153.
29.许可.电信运营商数据业务价值链模式比较与策略选择[J],当代通信,2003,22：60-63
30.陈慧.中国联通数据业务竞争环境分析及对策研究[D],成都：西南财经大学,工商管理硕士学位论文,2004
31.孔晓波.移动增值业务商业模式的创新与借鉴[D],北京：北京邮电大学,MBA学位论文,2006
32.魏布龙.层次分析法(AHP)程序的设计[J],计算机农业应用,1994,3
33.袁亚湘,孙文瑜.最优化理论与方法[M],北京：科学出版社,1997
34.邓志刚,韩星明.社会经济系统工程[M],北京：中国人民出版社,1994
35.TL萨蒂.层次分析法在资源分配、管理和冲突分析中的应用[M],北京：煤炭工业出版社,1988
36.刘光中.发展战略与数学模型[M],四川：四川科学技术出版社,1989
37.王雪.层次分析法在绩效考评指标权重设定中的应用[J],经济管理论坛,2005,6
38.熊锐,蒋晓亚.层次分析法在多目标决策中的应用[J],南京航空航天大学学报,1994,4
39.闵庆飞.中国企业ERP系统实施关键成功因素的实证研究[D],大连理工大学,2005.
40.傅立.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],北京：科学技术文献出版社,1992,(10)：185-238
41.刘思峰,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学出版社,2004
42.王际科.基于灰色系统理论的商业银行竞争力评价模型[D],大连： 大连理工大学,2005
43.刘思峰,史开泉.灰色系统学术论文集[M],河南大学出版社,1993
44.邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M],武汉：华中科技大学出版社,2002.
45.刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科技出版社,2005.6,11-12
46.邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[M],华中科技大学出版社,2002.9,20-23
47. Ying-Feng Kuo, Pang-Cheng Chen. Selection of mobile value-added services for method perators using fuzzy synthetic evaluation [J], Expert with Applications,2006,30:612-620
48. Jae-Hyeon Ahn. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related management strategy [J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
2.吴晓云,朱哲.中国移动通信企业在WTO条件下的营销战略[J],南开学报,2002,6
3.朱建.中国电信战略转型与业务创新的学习与思考[J],信息网络,2005,6：1-9
4.胡世良.电信产品开发创新面临的机遇、挑战和对策[J],通信管理与技术,2007,4：10-13
5. Jae-Hyeon Ahn. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related management strategy [J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
6. Deok-Jooleea, Jae-KyoungAhnb. Factors affecting companies telecommunication service selection
strategy [J], Omega,2007,35:486-493
7.蒋群.我国增值电信业务市场监管的研究及建议[D],北京：北京邮电大学,硕士学位论文,2007
8.王培文.中国移动通信服务行业的竞争发展及其战略调整[J],科学之友,2007,7：134-135
9.卞玮.3G技术环境下电信增值业务的商业模式研究[D],武汉：华中科技大学硕士学位论文,2006
10. Jae-Hyeon Ahn, Kyoung Cheon Cha, Duk Bin Jun, Myoung Hwan Park c. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related manfgement strategy[J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
11.臧晋.英国电信的融合与转型[J],通信世界,2007,4：27-28
12.迟晓英,宣国良,价值链研究发展综述[J],外国经济与管理,2000,01
13. Dong-Hee Shin. A critique of Korean National Information Strategy:Case of national information infrastructures [J], Government Information Quarterly,2007,24:624-645
14. Jae-Hyeon Ahn. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related management strategy [J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
15.王育民.从电信价值链到产业生态系统[J],通信企业管理,2004,3：28-30
16.[美]迈克尔·波特著,陈悦译.竞争优势[M],北京：华夏出版社,2005：34-55.
17.张翠英,史勇.基于价值链的竞争对手模糊数学评价模型[J],实践研究,2008,3：370-373
18.李苗苗.基于价值链的业务流程再造方法与应用研究[D],阜新：辽宁工程科技大学,学位论文,2003
19.迈克尔·波特,陈悦译.竞争优势[M],北京：华夏出版社,2005：34-55
20. Tom McGuffog, Nick Wadsley. The general principles of value chain management[J], Supply chain management:An International Journal,1999
21. Jeffrey F, Ray Port and Jone J. Sviokla. Exploiting the Virtual Value Chain [J], Harvard Business Review,1995:75-99.
22.郁义鸿.产业链类型及产业链效率基准[J],经济与管理研究,2005, (11)： 25-30.
23.潘成云.解读产业价值链——兼析我国新兴产业价值链基本特征[J],当代财经,2000, (9)：7-12.
24.蒋国俊,蒋明新.产业链理论及其稳定机制研究[J],重庆大学学报,2004, (10).
25.唐守廉,郑丽,王江磊.电信产业价值链的演变和价值网络[J],电信科学,2003,(9)： 1-4.
26.张鸿,韩黛娜,李娟.电信产业价值链演变路径研究[J],财经论丛,2008,1：96-102
27. POSNER L. The Social Costs of Monopoly and Regulation [J], Journal of Political Economy,1975, 83(4):807-827.
28. Woodruff R. B. Customer Value:The Nest Source for Competitive Advantage [J], Journal of The Academy of Marketing Science,1997,2(2):139-153.
29.许可.电信运营商数据业务价值链模式比较与策略选择[J],当代通信,2003,22：60-63
30.陈慧.中国联通数据业务竞争环境分析及对策研究[D],成都：西南财经大学,工商管理硕士学位论文,2004
31.孔晓波.移动增值业务商业模式的创新与借鉴[D],北京：北京邮电大学,MBA学位论文,2006
32.魏布龙.层次分析法(AHP)程序的设计[J],计算机农业应用,1994,3
33.袁亚湘,孙文瑜.最优化理论与方法[M],北京：科学出版社,1997
34.邓志刚,韩星明.社会经济系统工程[M],北京：中国人民出版社,1994
35.TL萨蒂.层次分析法在资源分配、管理和冲突分析中的应用[M],北京：煤炭工业出版社,1988
36.刘光中.发展战略与数学模型[M],四川：四川科学技术出版社,1989
37.王雪.层次分析法在绩效考评指标权重设定中的应用[J],经济管理论坛,2005,6
38.熊锐,蒋晓亚.层次分析法在多目标决策中的应用[J],南京航空航天大学学报,1994,4
39.闵庆飞.中国企业ERP系统实施关键成功因素的实证研究[D],大连理工大学,2005.
40.傅立.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],北京：科学技术文献出版社,1992,(10)：185-238
41.刘思峰,党耀国.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科学出版社,2004
42.王际科.基于灰色系统理论的商业银行竞争力评价模型[D],大连： 大连理工大学,2005
43.刘思峰,史开泉.灰色系统学术论文集[M],河南大学出版社,1993
44.邓聚龙.灰理论基础[M],武汉：华中科技大学出版社,2002.
45.刘思峰,党耀国,方志耕.灰色系统理论及其应用[M],科技出版社,2005.6,11-12
46.邓聚龙.灰预测与灰决策[M],华中科技大学出版社,2002.9,20-23
47. Ying-Feng Kuo, Pang-Cheng Chen. Selection of mobile value-added services for method perators using fuzzy synthetic evaluation [J], Expert with Applications,2006,30:612-620
48. Jae-Hyeon Ahn. Bridging telecommunication service:its concept and related management strategy [J], Telecommunications Policy,2004,28:733-750
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