外资并购对东道国产业竞争力的影响研究
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摘要
竞争是人类社会永恒的主题,而跨国公司作为商场竞争中一股强大的主导性力量,自20世纪90年代以来其对外直接投资方式迅速地以跨国并购取代了绿地投资,从而对东道国(特别是发展中东道国)产生了极为深远的影响。外资并购是一把“双刃剑”,它既可能成为东道国经济增长和国际竞争力提升的重要解释变量,也可能严重地损害东道国产业竞争力,威胁到东道国的产业安全与经济安全。然而,从目前的情况看,对外资并购与产业竞争力这两大热点问题的研究存在人为割裂的状态,从而导致无法就这一问题展开深入研究的弊病。因此,突破这种人为割裂状态,从东道国视角探讨外资并购对一国产业竞争力的影响,无疑具有较强的理论与现实意义。
借助于著名的波特“钻石”模型,我们可以从中提炼出三大中介变量:技术因素、市场结构与产业结构因素,以分析外资并购对东道国产业竞争力的影响。其中,外资并购技术“溢出效应”是东道国刻意追求的一个方面。基于信息不对称的跨国并购技术溢出性博弈分析表明,只要并购的技术溢出程度不低于一定的“临界点”,则外资并购对东道国产业发展总体来说是有利的,这在一定程度上说明了东道国以“市场换技术”的合理性。然而,鉴于主导权由跨国公司所掌握,东道国需综合权衡技术溢出效应能否弥补其放弃的市场收益,否则将陷入外资并购技术溢出的负面陷阱,即由于跨国公司在国际技术转移中的支配地位,使它有足够的能力对转移技术进行垄断与控制,并进而造成东道国,特别是发展中东道国的外部技术依赖。
外资并购通过改变东道国市场中企业间的垄断与竞争态势而影响到东道国的市场结构,并进而最终影响其产业竞争力。产业集中度、产品差异化程度与进入壁垒等市场结构决定因素是影响企业与产业的竞争优势的重要指标。无论是对外资并购与东道国市场结构效应的一般性分析,还是基于主导厂商理论模型的研究都表明,外资并购对东道国有形成垄断的威胁,但企业规模经济约束、技术约束等制约因素的存在使外资并购不一定是反竞争的,东道国政府通过宏观调控与微观规制对市场进行有效、适度干预也是非常必要的。
产业结构状况直接反映了一国的产业结构竞争力与经济发展程度,而产业结构的有效调整是增强一国产业竞争力的有效途径。外资并购对东道国的产业结构优化效应来源于其有效地开发了东道国的比较优势或诱致东道国形成新的竞争优势。这种产业结构优化效应的作用机理是通过伴随并购而发生的资本促长效应、技术溢出效应、产业关联效应、竞争与示范效应等共同作用而综合表现出来。然而,外资的这种产业带动效应在一定程度上具有潜在性,受东道国经济发展水平、产业转移承接能力、外资项目的产业关联系数高低等因素制约。
“入世”以来,外资在华并购速度有所提升,并呈现出向行业龙头企业与服务业蔓延等新趋势。从长远来看,外资并购对我国劳动密集型产业的发展是利大于弊,原则上我们对劳动密集型产业的外资并购应持支持的态度,它有助于提升该产业竞争力和实现可持续发展;鉴于我国支柱产业、主导产业多分布于资本密集型产业内,外资并购对这一产业的影响较为复杂,政府的政策引导和合理规制显得尤其重要:外资对技术特别是高新技术、核心技术的锁定效应,使我国期望纯粹依赖外资以实现高技术领域的突破是不现实的,政府应当引起足够的重视,着力培养本国企业的自主创新能力。外资并购主要是通过对我国的技术进步、市场结构与产业结构产生有利或不利影响,从而对我国产业竞争力产生上述有益或有害的影响。因此,在制定外资并购政策措施时,我们极有必要从思想上就外资并购与民族工业发展、外资并购与“以市场换技术”战略,以及产业竞争力提升中政府与企业的合理定位等问题做出反思,并基于我国现实条件,从推动外资并购技术溢出、促进有效竞争和产业发展等方面采取相应的政策措施,以实现我国产业竞争力的较快提升和促进国民经济的健康发展的长远目标。
Competitions are unavoidable in human society. And currently, as major and powerful actors in business market, MNEs have replaced their original Greenfield investments with foreign capital mergers and acquisitions (M&As) since 1990s, through which exert profound influences on the host countries, especially those developing host countries. Foreign capital M&A can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can be an important explanatory variable for the economic development of host countries and the promotion of their international competitiveness; on the other hand, it can also damage dramatically the industrial competitiveness of host countries and accordingly endanger the industrial security and the economic security of host countries. However, under current situations, there are definitely deliberate estrangement between studies on foreign M&A and studies on industrial competitiveness, which hence produce the impossibilities of a furtherance fathoming into the problems existing. Therefore, to break through the deliberate estrangement, probing into the influences of foreign capital mergers and acquisitions on industrial competitiveness from the perspective of host countries can be indisputably of comparatively profound theoretical and practical significance.
Resorting to the outstanding 'diamond model' propounded by Porter, three mediated variables can be organized: technology factor, market structure factor and industrial structure factor, by which the influences of CM&A on the industrial competitiveness of host countries can be probed into. Among them, technological "Spillover Effects" of CM&A is one of the major factors which host countries deliberately intend for. The game analysis upon the technological spillover of CM&A in asymmetrical information demonstrates that, if the degree of technological spillover of CM&A isn't below the critical point, then generally it is advantageous to the industrial development of host countries, which, to some extent, indicate the rationality of "technology replaces market" strategy of host countries. Yet as transnational corporations predominate the process, host country should consider whether technological spillover effects can make up for the market profit abandoned; or there will be considerable risks of being entrapped disadvantageously by the technological spillover effects of foreign capital M&A, or, to be more specific, because of the predominance of MNE in the transactions of international technology transfer, it will enable them to monopolize and control the technology transfer efficiently and accordingly render host countries, especially those developing countries, to be inevitably dependent on internal foreign technology helplessly.
Foreign capital M&A influence the market structure of host countries by means of changing the monopolization and the competitions among corporations in the markets of host countries, and eventually further influences the industrial competitiveness. The determinants of marker structure, such as industrial concentration degree, product differentiation degree and entry barriers, are the important and primary indexes which can influence the competitive advantages of corporations and industries. Both the general analysis on the effects of transnational mergers and acquisitions on market structure of host country and the exploration on the basis of predominate producer theory illustrate that CM&A pose a potential threat of monopolization. However, the dependent factors like the restrictions on enterprise scale economy and technology may restrict foreign capital M&A not to be anti-competitive. And, moreover, the effective and efficient macro adjustment control and micro regulation of host countries on the markets are essential and of great necessity.
The conditions of industrial structure can directly reflect the competitiveness of industrial structure and the economic development of a country. And efficient adjustments on industrial structure can effectively strengthen and enhance industrial competitiveness. The industrial structure optimization effects of foreign capital M&A on host countries derive from the efficient explorations on the comparative advantages of host countries and the initiations on establishing new competitive advantages in host countries. The mechanism of this kind of industrial structure optimization effects is demonstrated comprehensively in the co-actions with the other effects originating from the M&As, for examples, capital promotion effects, technological spillover effects, industrial linkage effects, competition and demonstration effects, etc. Nevertheless, the industrial promoting effects of foreign capital, to a very large extent, is potential and is restricted by the economic development situation, the industrial transfer undertaking ability and the industrial linkage ratio of foreign capital, etc, in host countries.
Since China got its membership in WTO, the speed of foreign capital M&A has been considerably increased. And recently the mergers and acquisitions tend to extend to the leading enterprises and the service industry. In the long run, to the development oflabor intensive industry in China, the advantages of foreign capital mergers andacquisitions outweigh the disadvantages. In principle, we should be positive to foreigncapital mergers and acquisitions on labor intensive industry, which in essence, canenhance the competitiveness of the industry and help to realize a sustainabledevelopment. And because the pillar industries and the leading industries of our countryare mostly located in capital intensive industry, the influences of foreign capital mergersand acquisitions on capital intensive industry are comparatively complicated. Hence thestrategic guidance and the rational regulation of government appear to be primarilyimportant and indispensable. The lock-in effects of foreign capital on technology,especially on new and high technologies and core technologies, make it unrealistic forour country to depend sorely on foreign capital for breakthroughs in high technologies.The government should pay attention to this and devote great efforts to cultivate theindependent innovation ability of domestic enterprises. Through both the advantageousand the disadvantages influences on technology promotion, market structure andindustrial structure of our country, foreign capital mergers and acquisitions furthermoreimpose both beneficial and harmful influences on the industrial competitiveness in China.Therefore, when making strategies and measures on foreign capital mergers andacquisitions, overall considerations and reflections on the relationships between foreigncapital mergers and acquisitions and the development of national industry, therelationships between foreign capital mergers and acquisitions and the strategy of"technology replaces market", and the appropriate orientation of government andenterprises in promoting industrial competitiveness, etc., would definitely be extremelycritical and essential. And, to realize the long-term target of enhancing the industrialcompetitiveness significantly and promoting the national economy's stable and healthdevelopment of our country, on basis of our current situation, related strategies andmeasures to propel technological spillover of foreign capital mergers and acquisitionsand promote efficient competition and industrial development should be indisputablyimplemented.
借助于著名的波特“钻石”模型,我们可以从中提炼出三大中介变量:技术因素、市场结构与产业结构因素,以分析外资并购对东道国产业竞争力的影响。其中,外资并购技术“溢出效应”是东道国刻意追求的一个方面。基于信息不对称的跨国并购技术溢出性博弈分析表明,只要并购的技术溢出程度不低于一定的“临界点”,则外资并购对东道国产业发展总体来说是有利的,这在一定程度上说明了东道国以“市场换技术”的合理性。然而,鉴于主导权由跨国公司所掌握,东道国需综合权衡技术溢出效应能否弥补其放弃的市场收益,否则将陷入外资并购技术溢出的负面陷阱,即由于跨国公司在国际技术转移中的支配地位,使它有足够的能力对转移技术进行垄断与控制,并进而造成东道国,特别是发展中东道国的外部技术依赖。
外资并购通过改变东道国市场中企业间的垄断与竞争态势而影响到东道国的市场结构,并进而最终影响其产业竞争力。产业集中度、产品差异化程度与进入壁垒等市场结构决定因素是影响企业与产业的竞争优势的重要指标。无论是对外资并购与东道国市场结构效应的一般性分析,还是基于主导厂商理论模型的研究都表明,外资并购对东道国有形成垄断的威胁,但企业规模经济约束、技术约束等制约因素的存在使外资并购不一定是反竞争的,东道国政府通过宏观调控与微观规制对市场进行有效、适度干预也是非常必要的。
产业结构状况直接反映了一国的产业结构竞争力与经济发展程度,而产业结构的有效调整是增强一国产业竞争力的有效途径。外资并购对东道国的产业结构优化效应来源于其有效地开发了东道国的比较优势或诱致东道国形成新的竞争优势。这种产业结构优化效应的作用机理是通过伴随并购而发生的资本促长效应、技术溢出效应、产业关联效应、竞争与示范效应等共同作用而综合表现出来。然而,外资的这种产业带动效应在一定程度上具有潜在性,受东道国经济发展水平、产业转移承接能力、外资项目的产业关联系数高低等因素制约。
“入世”以来,外资在华并购速度有所提升,并呈现出向行业龙头企业与服务业蔓延等新趋势。从长远来看,外资并购对我国劳动密集型产业的发展是利大于弊,原则上我们对劳动密集型产业的外资并购应持支持的态度,它有助于提升该产业竞争力和实现可持续发展;鉴于我国支柱产业、主导产业多分布于资本密集型产业内,外资并购对这一产业的影响较为复杂,政府的政策引导和合理规制显得尤其重要:外资对技术特别是高新技术、核心技术的锁定效应,使我国期望纯粹依赖外资以实现高技术领域的突破是不现实的,政府应当引起足够的重视,着力培养本国企业的自主创新能力。外资并购主要是通过对我国的技术进步、市场结构与产业结构产生有利或不利影响,从而对我国产业竞争力产生上述有益或有害的影响。因此,在制定外资并购政策措施时,我们极有必要从思想上就外资并购与民族工业发展、外资并购与“以市场换技术”战略,以及产业竞争力提升中政府与企业的合理定位等问题做出反思,并基于我国现实条件,从推动外资并购技术溢出、促进有效竞争和产业发展等方面采取相应的政策措施,以实现我国产业竞争力的较快提升和促进国民经济的健康发展的长远目标。
Competitions are unavoidable in human society. And currently, as major and powerful actors in business market, MNEs have replaced their original Greenfield investments with foreign capital mergers and acquisitions (M&As) since 1990s, through which exert profound influences on the host countries, especially those developing host countries. Foreign capital M&A can be a double-edged sword. On one hand, it can be an important explanatory variable for the economic development of host countries and the promotion of their international competitiveness; on the other hand, it can also damage dramatically the industrial competitiveness of host countries and accordingly endanger the industrial security and the economic security of host countries. However, under current situations, there are definitely deliberate estrangement between studies on foreign M&A and studies on industrial competitiveness, which hence produce the impossibilities of a furtherance fathoming into the problems existing. Therefore, to break through the deliberate estrangement, probing into the influences of foreign capital mergers and acquisitions on industrial competitiveness from the perspective of host countries can be indisputably of comparatively profound theoretical and practical significance.
Resorting to the outstanding 'diamond model' propounded by Porter, three mediated variables can be organized: technology factor, market structure factor and industrial structure factor, by which the influences of CM&A on the industrial competitiveness of host countries can be probed into. Among them, technological "Spillover Effects" of CM&A is one of the major factors which host countries deliberately intend for. The game analysis upon the technological spillover of CM&A in asymmetrical information demonstrates that, if the degree of technological spillover of CM&A isn't below the critical point, then generally it is advantageous to the industrial development of host countries, which, to some extent, indicate the rationality of "technology replaces market" strategy of host countries. Yet as transnational corporations predominate the process, host country should consider whether technological spillover effects can make up for the market profit abandoned; or there will be considerable risks of being entrapped disadvantageously by the technological spillover effects of foreign capital M&A, or, to be more specific, because of the predominance of MNE in the transactions of international technology transfer, it will enable them to monopolize and control the technology transfer efficiently and accordingly render host countries, especially those developing countries, to be inevitably dependent on internal foreign technology helplessly.
Foreign capital M&A influence the market structure of host countries by means of changing the monopolization and the competitions among corporations in the markets of host countries, and eventually further influences the industrial competitiveness. The determinants of marker structure, such as industrial concentration degree, product differentiation degree and entry barriers, are the important and primary indexes which can influence the competitive advantages of corporations and industries. Both the general analysis on the effects of transnational mergers and acquisitions on market structure of host country and the exploration on the basis of predominate producer theory illustrate that CM&A pose a potential threat of monopolization. However, the dependent factors like the restrictions on enterprise scale economy and technology may restrict foreign capital M&A not to be anti-competitive. And, moreover, the effective and efficient macro adjustment control and micro regulation of host countries on the markets are essential and of great necessity.
The conditions of industrial structure can directly reflect the competitiveness of industrial structure and the economic development of a country. And efficient adjustments on industrial structure can effectively strengthen and enhance industrial competitiveness. The industrial structure optimization effects of foreign capital M&A on host countries derive from the efficient explorations on the comparative advantages of host countries and the initiations on establishing new competitive advantages in host countries. The mechanism of this kind of industrial structure optimization effects is demonstrated comprehensively in the co-actions with the other effects originating from the M&As, for examples, capital promotion effects, technological spillover effects, industrial linkage effects, competition and demonstration effects, etc. Nevertheless, the industrial promoting effects of foreign capital, to a very large extent, is potential and is restricted by the economic development situation, the industrial transfer undertaking ability and the industrial linkage ratio of foreign capital, etc, in host countries.
Since China got its membership in WTO, the speed of foreign capital M&A has been considerably increased. And recently the mergers and acquisitions tend to extend to the leading enterprises and the service industry. In the long run, to the development oflabor intensive industry in China, the advantages of foreign capital mergers andacquisitions outweigh the disadvantages. In principle, we should be positive to foreigncapital mergers and acquisitions on labor intensive industry, which in essence, canenhance the competitiveness of the industry and help to realize a sustainabledevelopment. And because the pillar industries and the leading industries of our countryare mostly located in capital intensive industry, the influences of foreign capital mergersand acquisitions on capital intensive industry are comparatively complicated. Hence thestrategic guidance and the rational regulation of government appear to be primarilyimportant and indispensable. The lock-in effects of foreign capital on technology,especially on new and high technologies and core technologies, make it unrealistic forour country to depend sorely on foreign capital for breakthroughs in high technologies.The government should pay attention to this and devote great efforts to cultivate theindependent innovation ability of domestic enterprises. Through both the advantageousand the disadvantages influences on technology promotion, market structure andindustrial structure of our country, foreign capital mergers and acquisitions furthermoreimpose both beneficial and harmful influences on the industrial competitiveness in China.Therefore, when making strategies and measures on foreign capital mergers andacquisitions, overall considerations and reflections on the relationships between foreigncapital mergers and acquisitions and the development of national industry, therelationships between foreign capital mergers and acquisitions and the strategy of"technology replaces market", and the appropriate orientation of government andenterprises in promoting industrial competitiveness, etc., would definitely be extremelycritical and essential. And, to realize the long-term target of enhancing the industrialcompetitiveness significantly and promoting the national economy's stable and healthdevelopment of our country, on basis of our current situation, related strategies andmeasures to propel technological spillover of foreign capital mergers and acquisitionsand promote efficient competition and industrial development should be indisputablyimplemented.
引文
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