盐岩储气库风险分析预测及库群整体安全稳定性研究
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摘要
近年来,能源危机成为世界各国发展的战略性威胁,国际能源争夺呈愈演愈烈的趋势,随着我国现代化建设不断深入,能源短缺已经成为我国经济和社会发展的重要制约因素。盐岩地下储库因其良好的使用功能,愈发被世界各国所采用,自2003年以来,我国加大了地下能源储备建设,越来越多的地下储备库建成并投入使用。由于储气库的地下隐蔽性使得储气库在运行过程中具有一定的风险性,同时,我国的地下盐岩层构造同西方国家存在巨大地差异,因此,结合我国盐岩地下储备库实际情况,开展储库的风险分析预测及其系统安全稳定性研究,为盐岩地下能源储备库(群)的建设和营运提供技术支持和决策依据,以满足对能源地下储备安全的需求,具有十分重大的现实意义。
本文以工程随机力学和可靠性数学为理论基础,依托国家重点基础研究发展计划,以江苏金坛盐岩地下储气库为工程背景,并结合我国实际盐岩地层地质条件,开展对地下盐岩储气库(群)的失效风险分析与预测以及地下储气库群的整体安全稳定性研究。主要研究内容包括以下方面：
1.基于随机力学理论,分析计算了正常运营期随时间周期性变化的内压荷载对储库安全稳定性的影响,得出了可靠度变化规律及其时空响应特征。
2.根据工程实际应用,研究了注采速率对储气库系统可靠性的影响,计算出不同注采速率下储气库时变失效概率的变化情况。
3.根据可靠性数学理论,构建出了储气库马尔可夫概率预测模型,根据其概率转移矩阵对储气库进行了风险分析和寿命预测。
4.将强度折减法原理引入到盐岩储库腔群的安全稳定性研究中,基于强度折减法原理对储气库腔群进行静力分析和长期流变分析,定量地给出腔群的整体安全系数。
In recent years, the energy crisis has become a strategic threat to the development of countries in the world. International competition for energy resources becomes more and more intense. In our country, the energy shortage has become an important constraint for the economic and social development, with the continuous deepening of modernization. Salt rock underground gas storage is adopted around the world, because of its good features. Since2003, our country has stepped up the construction of underground energy reserves and more and more salt rock underground gas storages are put into use. Invisibility of the underground gas storage makes it a certain degree of risk and China's underground salt rock structure is different from that in western countries. Therefore, combining with the actual situation of China's salt rock underground reserves, it has great significance to study the risk analysis and prediction and system security stability of the storages. Some useful conclusions were finally obtained, which could provide scientific basis and technical support for the storage construction and safety operation.
Based on stochastic mechanics and reliability mathematics, this article relies on the national key basic research and development program. Jintan salt rock gas storage is studied as engineering background. Combining the actual salt rock layer and geological conditions in our country, the risk analysis and prediction and system security stability of the storages is studied. The main contents are as follows:
1. Based on the theory of stochastic mechanics, the influence to security and stability of the reservoir caused by time-varying pressure of the inner gas during operation period is studied and the variation of failure probability of the salt rock underground gas storage during operation period is obtained.
2. According to the practical application of engineering, the influence to the stability of the gas storage caused by changing the velocity of gas recovery and injection is discussed. Change of failure probability is calculated.
3. According to the theory of reliability mathematics, Markov probability prediction model is built. Risk analysis and life prediction of gas storage is studied based on its probability transition matrix.
4. Strength reduction theory is introduced into security and stability study of the underground gas storage caverns. It is analyzed both in static state and long-term rheology state based on strength reduction theory. Overall safety factor of the caverns is given quantitatively.
本文以工程随机力学和可靠性数学为理论基础,依托国家重点基础研究发展计划,以江苏金坛盐岩地下储气库为工程背景,并结合我国实际盐岩地层地质条件,开展对地下盐岩储气库(群)的失效风险分析与预测以及地下储气库群的整体安全稳定性研究。主要研究内容包括以下方面：
1.基于随机力学理论,分析计算了正常运营期随时间周期性变化的内压荷载对储库安全稳定性的影响,得出了可靠度变化规律及其时空响应特征。
2.根据工程实际应用,研究了注采速率对储气库系统可靠性的影响,计算出不同注采速率下储气库时变失效概率的变化情况。
3.根据可靠性数学理论,构建出了储气库马尔可夫概率预测模型,根据其概率转移矩阵对储气库进行了风险分析和寿命预测。
4.将强度折减法原理引入到盐岩储库腔群的安全稳定性研究中,基于强度折减法原理对储气库腔群进行静力分析和长期流变分析,定量地给出腔群的整体安全系数。
In recent years, the energy crisis has become a strategic threat to the development of countries in the world. International competition for energy resources becomes more and more intense. In our country, the energy shortage has become an important constraint for the economic and social development, with the continuous deepening of modernization. Salt rock underground gas storage is adopted around the world, because of its good features. Since2003, our country has stepped up the construction of underground energy reserves and more and more salt rock underground gas storages are put into use. Invisibility of the underground gas storage makes it a certain degree of risk and China's underground salt rock structure is different from that in western countries. Therefore, combining with the actual situation of China's salt rock underground reserves, it has great significance to study the risk analysis and prediction and system security stability of the storages. Some useful conclusions were finally obtained, which could provide scientific basis and technical support for the storage construction and safety operation.
Based on stochastic mechanics and reliability mathematics, this article relies on the national key basic research and development program. Jintan salt rock gas storage is studied as engineering background. Combining the actual salt rock layer and geological conditions in our country, the risk analysis and prediction and system security stability of the storages is studied. The main contents are as follows:
1. Based on the theory of stochastic mechanics, the influence to security and stability of the reservoir caused by time-varying pressure of the inner gas during operation period is studied and the variation of failure probability of the salt rock underground gas storage during operation period is obtained.
2. According to the practical application of engineering, the influence to the stability of the gas storage caused by changing the velocity of gas recovery and injection is discussed. Change of failure probability is calculated.
3. According to the theory of reliability mathematics, Markov probability prediction model is built. Risk analysis and life prediction of gas storage is studied based on its probability transition matrix.
4. Strength reduction theory is introduced into security and stability study of the underground gas storage caverns. It is analyzed both in static state and long-term rheology state based on strength reduction theory. Overall safety factor of the caverns is given quantitatively.
引文
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[7]吴文,杨春和,侯正猛.盐岩中能源(石油和天然气)地下储存力学问题研究现状及其进展[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(增2)：5561-5568.
[8]J. C. Stormont. In situ gas permeability measurements to delineate damage in rock salt [J]. Int. J. Rock Mech. Min. Sci.1997,34(7):1055-1064.
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[1 0]杨春和.973计划项目申请书.受理编号：S2008071054,2008.
[11]王贵君.天然气盐岩洞室群长期存储能力[J].岩土工程学报,2004,26(1)：62-66.
[12]谭羽飞,廉乐明,严铭卿.国外地下储气库的技术与发展[J].油气储运,1997,16(12)：17-19.
[13]Fujii Y, Kiyama T. Criumferential strain behavior during creep tests of brittle rocks. Int.J.Rock.Mech.Min.Sci.1999,36:323-337.
[14]Cristescu N D. A general constitutive equation for transient and stationary creep of rock salt [J]. Int. J. Rock. Mech. Sci. & Geomech Abstr.1993(30),2:125～140.
[15]K-H. Lux. Optimising underground gas storage opterations in salt caverns, with special reference to the rock mechanies and thermodynamics invulved. The 3rd Conference on the Mechanical Behavior of salt. Trans Tech publications 1996:445-458.
[16]K. Staudtmeister, R.B. Rokahr. Rock mechanical design of storage caverns for natural gas in rock salt mass. Int. J. Rock Mech. & Min.Sci.1997,34:3-4, Paper No.300.
[17]Ⅱ-Moon Chung, Woncheol Cho, Jun-Haeng Heo. Stochastic hydraulic safety factor for gas containment in underground storage caverns [J].Journal of Hydology,2003,284:77-91.
[18]J.M. Patroni. Lifetime of a Natural Gas Storage Well Assessment of Well-Field Maintenance Cost [J].Oil & Gas Science and Technology,2007,62(3):297-309.
[19]杨春和,李银平,陈峰.层状盐岩力学理论与工程[M].北京：科学出版社,2009.
[20]陈卫忠,谭贤君,伍国军等.含夹层盐岩储气库气体渗透规律研究[J].石力学与工程学报.2009,28(7)：1298-1304.
[21]杨强,邓检强,吕庆超等.基于能量判据的盐岩库群整体稳定性分析方法[J].岩石力学 与工程学报,2011,30(8)：1513-1521.
[22]Yang Chunhe, Daeman JJK, Yin Jianhua. Experimental investigation of creep behavior of salt rock[J].International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Science,2000,36(2):336— 341.
[23]Amadei B, Pan E, Gravitational stresses in anisotropic rock masses with inclined strata. Int. J. Rock Min.Sci. & Geomech. Abstr.,1992,29(3):225-236.
[24]Rokahr R, Staudtmeister K. the assessment of the stability of a cavern field in bedded salt with the help of the new hannover dimensioning concept [A]. Ghoreychi M, Berest Jr P, Langer M. Proceedings of 3rd Conf. Mech. Beh. Of Salt. Clausthal-Zellerfeld: Trans. Tech. Publ.:534-544.
[25]杨春和,梁卫国,魏东吼等.中国盐岩能源地下储存可行性研究[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2005,24(24)：4409-4417.
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