天气风险对西部农户正规融资的影响及防范研究
|
摘要
近年来,尽管小额信贷在我国农村地区得到飞速发展,支农作用不断增强,但弱势农户贷款难,尤其是我国西部地区农户贷款难的问题依然严峻。目前我国西部农户的家庭收入主要源于农业,农业生产受极端天气影响较大,导致农业收入不稳定,从而影响农户正规融资的获得性。因此要提高我国西部农户正规融资能力,其最重要的途径是降低天气风险对农业生产的影响,稳定农户收入,然而现阶段我国缺乏有效的天气风险防范措施。从现有文献看,鲜有学者从有效规避天气风险,稳定农业收入的视角研究农户正规融资问题,基于农户正规融资与天气风险防范相结合的理论分析和实证研究亟待充实。本文受国家自然科学基金项目(项目批号:70873096)和教育部人文社科规划项目(项目批号:07JA790027)资助完成。
依据目前的研究现状,本文对天气风险影响农业生产及农户正规融资的国内外相关文献进行了比较全面、系统的综述,将我国西部农户按融资来源渠道分为:正规融资农户、非正规融资农户、兼容农户、无融资农户4类,运用陕西和甘肃897个农户的实地调查数据与资料,分析了我国西部农户正规融资的特征、不同融资类型农户规避天气风险的态度、措施及农户对天气保险品种的选择;探讨了天气风险对我国西部地区农户正规融资的影响及防范措施;在国际经验借鉴的基础上提出来对策和建议。
本文研究内容主要涉及以下5个方面:
第一,采用Binary Logistic回归模型等实证分析方法,研究西部地区农户正规融资的需求现状、特征,及影响农户正规融资的因素,并利用样本农户家庭最主要农产品(销售收入最高)明年的最低亩产量、最可能的亩产量和最高亩产量的变化量,评估了天气风险对我国西部农户正规融资的影响程度。数据分析结果显示:我国西部农户正规融资的主要特征表现为以非正规融资为主;受正规金融机构拒贷比例偏高;正规融资额度普遍较小;借贷期限较短;以生活性借贷为主;贷款偿还率高达99.0%;推迟还款率高达25.6%。研究还发现,影响农户正规融资的因素按其程度由大到小依次为:人均年收入、农业是否主要收入来源、是否弃农、是否愿意采用新品种,而文化程度、耕地面积、务农年数、是否被拒贷、是否愿意购买天气保险、是否遭遇旱灾、是否愿意多借等因素对农户正规融资影响不显著;随着家庭最主要农产品价格的上升,天气风险对人均年收入的影响被扩大,从而间接的影响了西部农户正规融资的可得性。因此,需要进一步研究农户天气风险防范的状况。
第二,运用列链表及对比分析的方法,比较不同融资类型的农户规避天气风险的态度、措施,并从农户对降雨量、气温和大风保险的兴趣入手分析其对天气保险品种的选择。数据分析结果显示,多数农户愿意承担“生产风险”、“新技术风险”、“新管理方法风险”;相对于没有正规融资的农户,有正规融资的农户中“愿意”承担这些风险的占比较高,即农户融资类型与农户风险态度之间存在相关性;为降低天气风险对农业生产的影响,80%以上的农户采用了相应措施(如保持家庭储蓄、经营多样化、投资非农产业等),但仍有部分农户对天气风险不够重视,其防范意识有待加强;对于降雨量过高、过低,气温过热、过冷,大风5种类型的天气保险均有超过50%的农户表示感兴趣;有正规融资的农户比无正规融资的农户对天气保险的兴趣更高。基于以上结论,本文进一步探究西部农户对正规融资与天气保险相结合的“新型天气保险产品”(或称“新型贷款产品”)的兴趣及其影响因素。
第三,利用Ordinal回归模型考察目前西部农户对“新型天气保险产品”(即将利率相对较高的正规融资与普通的天气保险相结合的金融产品,如当发生严重干旱时,农户需要偿还的债务会随着干旱程度的增加而减少,亦可称为“新型贷款产品”或“新型贷款产品”)的兴趣及其影响因素。研究结果表明,57.1%的农户对新型天气保险产品有兴趣。从影响因素来看,女性比男性对新型天气保险产品的兴趣更强烈,是否愿意多借、耕地面积、是否愿意购买天气保险等因素对农户新型天气保险产品兴趣有显著的负向影响;而文化程度、务农年数、借贷类型、农业是否主要收入来源、人均年收入、资产负债率、是否被拒贷、是否愿意采用新品种、是否遭遇旱灾、是否弃农等因素对农户新型天气保险产品(新型贷款产品)兴趣无显著影响。
第四,通过文献资料归纳与总结,比较了国内外防范天气风险提高农户正规融资能力的政策扶持经验与举措,例如健全的政府保障体系,完善的法律保障体系,发达的保险体系,完备的农村金融体系,规范的环保体系等,以期为有效防范天气风险改善我国西部地区农户正规融资能力提供国际借鉴。
第五,根据上述理论分析与实证结果,从政府部门、金融机构、保险公司、西部农户和环保部门、气象部门等多方主体角度,提出有效规避天气风险,提高我国西部农户正规融资能力,促进西部农村金融发展的对策和建议。
In recent years, although microfinance in rural China has been developing rapidly with the increasing support for agriculture, it is hard for disadvantaged farmers to borrow money, especially in the west regions of China. In the western of China, farmers' family income mainly comes from the agricultural industry which is variably influenced by weather disasters leading to agricultural income instability, thus it weakens the farmers’ability to obtain formal financing. In order to increase their formal financing capability, reducing the weather risk and stabling agricultural income are the most important ways, but at this stage, China is lack of the effective preventive measures. The literatures about farmers' formal financing mechanism from the perspective of risk aversion and steady revenue are rare. So it urgently needs the study on farmers’formal financing and weather risk prevention based on theoretical and empirical analysis. This research was supported by China National Nature Science Fund with grant number 70873096 and Humanities and Social Science Fund of China Education Department with grant number 07JA790027.
Based on the current situation, this dissertation summarizes the damages caused by adverse weather and farmers' formal financing from existing literatures both at home and abroad, and classifies China's western farmers into 4 categories by their financing sources, including formal financing, non-formal financing, compatible and without borrowing. On the basis of 897 households data from Shaanxi and Gansu Province, the typical western agricultural production areas, this paper analyses the characteristics of farmers’formal financing in western China, discusses different types of farmers’financing attitudes, measures and choices, explores the effects of weather risks and preventive measures of western farmers’formal financing, and policy suggestions were given based on international experience. This research mainly involves the following five aspects:
First, by using Binary Logistic Regression Model and other analysis, this dissertation studies the present situation, characteristics and influencing factors of formal financing in western China and estimates the influencing degree of weather risk. The results show that the main feature of western farmers’formal financing is informal finance-dominated; refusal borrowings account for a higher proportion; credit amount is small; the period of debt is short; basic daily needs dominated (especially for building houses); high repay rate(99%); higher late payment rate(25.6%), etc. According to the influencing extent from large to small, the factors are listed as follows: capita income, whether farming is the main source of income, whether abandon agriculture, whether be willing to adopt new species. However, some factors, such as degree of education, agricultural acreage, how long engaged in farming work, whether a loan ever being refused, whether be willing to buy weather insurance, whether suffering drought, whether be willing to borrow more money, have no obvious influence on the farmers’formal financing. The weather risks indirectly influence the farmers’formal financing ability through their agricultural income. Thus, we need make further study on weather risk's aversion.
Second, this part adopts contingency table estimation to compare the preventive attitudes, measures among different types of farmers and to analyze farmers' choices of insurance breeds according to their interest concerning rainfall levels, temperature and gale. The data shows that the majority are more willing to take“new production risks”,“new technology risks”and“new management method risks”; compared to farmers without formal financing, formal farmers hold a higher percentage of the willingness, that is to say, there is correlation between farmers’types of financing and their risk attitudes; in order to reduce the weather risk effect on agricultural production, over 80% of the farmers use the corresponding countermeasures (such as maintaining household saving, diversification, non-farm investment), but there are still some farmers who pay insufficient attention on weather risks; more than half farmers are interested in insurance of excessive heat, excessive rainfall, gale, cold weather or deficit in rainfall; compared to farmers without formal financing, more formal farmers are interested in weather insurance. Based on the above conclusions, the dissertation will further explore farmers' interests and influencing factors of "new weather insurance" (or "new loan products") combined by formal financing and weather insurance.
Third, the Ordinal Regression Model is used to investigate farmers' interests and influencing factors of weather insurance (A new loan product requires an increased interest rate, for example, such a loan product has a built-in insurance mechanism so that when a severe drought occurs the amount of debt you have to repay decreases as the intensity of the drought increases. In this paper, it is called new type of weather insurance or loan product.). 57.1% farmers are interested in this new type of weather insurance. Compared with men, women are more interested in it; whether be willing to borrow more money, agricultural acreage, whether be willing to buy weather insurance exert negative influence on the famers’interest in this new type of weather insurance. However, the factors including degree of education, how long engaged in farming work, types of borrowing, whether farming is the main source of income, capita income, asset-liability ratio, whether a loan ever being refused, whether be willing to adopt new species, whether be willing to adopt new species, whether suffering drought, whether abandon agriculture don’t have significant influence on the famers’interest to the new type of weather insurance or loan product.
Fourth, through using comparative analysis, this section discusses the preventive measures for weather risk both at home and abroad (sound governmental security system, perfect law setup, well-developed agricultural insurance system, modern rural financial system, canonical eco-environmental protection system, etc), This research intends to provide reference which can effectively prevent weather risk and improve the farmers’formal financing capacity in western China.
Fifth, according to the above theories and empirical results, the author puts forward recommendations and main countermeasures which can prevent the weather risk, improve the ability of farmers’formal financing in western China and promote the development of finance in western rural China from the aspects of government, financial institution, insurance company, farmers of western China, environmental protection sector, meteorological department and others.
依据目前的研究现状,本文对天气风险影响农业生产及农户正规融资的国内外相关文献进行了比较全面、系统的综述,将我国西部农户按融资来源渠道分为:正规融资农户、非正规融资农户、兼容农户、无融资农户4类,运用陕西和甘肃897个农户的实地调查数据与资料,分析了我国西部农户正规融资的特征、不同融资类型农户规避天气风险的态度、措施及农户对天气保险品种的选择;探讨了天气风险对我国西部地区农户正规融资的影响及防范措施;在国际经验借鉴的基础上提出来对策和建议。
本文研究内容主要涉及以下5个方面:
第一,采用Binary Logistic回归模型等实证分析方法,研究西部地区农户正规融资的需求现状、特征,及影响农户正规融资的因素,并利用样本农户家庭最主要农产品(销售收入最高)明年的最低亩产量、最可能的亩产量和最高亩产量的变化量,评估了天气风险对我国西部农户正规融资的影响程度。数据分析结果显示:我国西部农户正规融资的主要特征表现为以非正规融资为主;受正规金融机构拒贷比例偏高;正规融资额度普遍较小;借贷期限较短;以生活性借贷为主;贷款偿还率高达99.0%;推迟还款率高达25.6%。研究还发现,影响农户正规融资的因素按其程度由大到小依次为:人均年收入、农业是否主要收入来源、是否弃农、是否愿意采用新品种,而文化程度、耕地面积、务农年数、是否被拒贷、是否愿意购买天气保险、是否遭遇旱灾、是否愿意多借等因素对农户正规融资影响不显著;随着家庭最主要农产品价格的上升,天气风险对人均年收入的影响被扩大,从而间接的影响了西部农户正规融资的可得性。因此,需要进一步研究农户天气风险防范的状况。
第二,运用列链表及对比分析的方法,比较不同融资类型的农户规避天气风险的态度、措施,并从农户对降雨量、气温和大风保险的兴趣入手分析其对天气保险品种的选择。数据分析结果显示,多数农户愿意承担“生产风险”、“新技术风险”、“新管理方法风险”;相对于没有正规融资的农户,有正规融资的农户中“愿意”承担这些风险的占比较高,即农户融资类型与农户风险态度之间存在相关性;为降低天气风险对农业生产的影响,80%以上的农户采用了相应措施(如保持家庭储蓄、经营多样化、投资非农产业等),但仍有部分农户对天气风险不够重视,其防范意识有待加强;对于降雨量过高、过低,气温过热、过冷,大风5种类型的天气保险均有超过50%的农户表示感兴趣;有正规融资的农户比无正规融资的农户对天气保险的兴趣更高。基于以上结论,本文进一步探究西部农户对正规融资与天气保险相结合的“新型天气保险产品”(或称“新型贷款产品”)的兴趣及其影响因素。
第三,利用Ordinal回归模型考察目前西部农户对“新型天气保险产品”(即将利率相对较高的正规融资与普通的天气保险相结合的金融产品,如当发生严重干旱时,农户需要偿还的债务会随着干旱程度的增加而减少,亦可称为“新型贷款产品”或“新型贷款产品”)的兴趣及其影响因素。研究结果表明,57.1%的农户对新型天气保险产品有兴趣。从影响因素来看,女性比男性对新型天气保险产品的兴趣更强烈,是否愿意多借、耕地面积、是否愿意购买天气保险等因素对农户新型天气保险产品兴趣有显著的负向影响;而文化程度、务农年数、借贷类型、农业是否主要收入来源、人均年收入、资产负债率、是否被拒贷、是否愿意采用新品种、是否遭遇旱灾、是否弃农等因素对农户新型天气保险产品(新型贷款产品)兴趣无显著影响。
第四,通过文献资料归纳与总结,比较了国内外防范天气风险提高农户正规融资能力的政策扶持经验与举措,例如健全的政府保障体系,完善的法律保障体系,发达的保险体系,完备的农村金融体系,规范的环保体系等,以期为有效防范天气风险改善我国西部地区农户正规融资能力提供国际借鉴。
第五,根据上述理论分析与实证结果,从政府部门、金融机构、保险公司、西部农户和环保部门、气象部门等多方主体角度,提出有效规避天气风险,提高我国西部农户正规融资能力,促进西部农村金融发展的对策和建议。
In recent years, although microfinance in rural China has been developing rapidly with the increasing support for agriculture, it is hard for disadvantaged farmers to borrow money, especially in the west regions of China. In the western of China, farmers' family income mainly comes from the agricultural industry which is variably influenced by weather disasters leading to agricultural income instability, thus it weakens the farmers’ability to obtain formal financing. In order to increase their formal financing capability, reducing the weather risk and stabling agricultural income are the most important ways, but at this stage, China is lack of the effective preventive measures. The literatures about farmers' formal financing mechanism from the perspective of risk aversion and steady revenue are rare. So it urgently needs the study on farmers’formal financing and weather risk prevention based on theoretical and empirical analysis. This research was supported by China National Nature Science Fund with grant number 70873096 and Humanities and Social Science Fund of China Education Department with grant number 07JA790027.
Based on the current situation, this dissertation summarizes the damages caused by adverse weather and farmers' formal financing from existing literatures both at home and abroad, and classifies China's western farmers into 4 categories by their financing sources, including formal financing, non-formal financing, compatible and without borrowing. On the basis of 897 households data from Shaanxi and Gansu Province, the typical western agricultural production areas, this paper analyses the characteristics of farmers’formal financing in western China, discusses different types of farmers’financing attitudes, measures and choices, explores the effects of weather risks and preventive measures of western farmers’formal financing, and policy suggestions were given based on international experience. This research mainly involves the following five aspects:
First, by using Binary Logistic Regression Model and other analysis, this dissertation studies the present situation, characteristics and influencing factors of formal financing in western China and estimates the influencing degree of weather risk. The results show that the main feature of western farmers’formal financing is informal finance-dominated; refusal borrowings account for a higher proportion; credit amount is small; the period of debt is short; basic daily needs dominated (especially for building houses); high repay rate(99%); higher late payment rate(25.6%), etc. According to the influencing extent from large to small, the factors are listed as follows: capita income, whether farming is the main source of income, whether abandon agriculture, whether be willing to adopt new species. However, some factors, such as degree of education, agricultural acreage, how long engaged in farming work, whether a loan ever being refused, whether be willing to buy weather insurance, whether suffering drought, whether be willing to borrow more money, have no obvious influence on the farmers’formal financing. The weather risks indirectly influence the farmers’formal financing ability through their agricultural income. Thus, we need make further study on weather risk's aversion.
Second, this part adopts contingency table estimation to compare the preventive attitudes, measures among different types of farmers and to analyze farmers' choices of insurance breeds according to their interest concerning rainfall levels, temperature and gale. The data shows that the majority are more willing to take“new production risks”,“new technology risks”and“new management method risks”; compared to farmers without formal financing, formal farmers hold a higher percentage of the willingness, that is to say, there is correlation between farmers’types of financing and their risk attitudes; in order to reduce the weather risk effect on agricultural production, over 80% of the farmers use the corresponding countermeasures (such as maintaining household saving, diversification, non-farm investment), but there are still some farmers who pay insufficient attention on weather risks; more than half farmers are interested in insurance of excessive heat, excessive rainfall, gale, cold weather or deficit in rainfall; compared to farmers without formal financing, more formal farmers are interested in weather insurance. Based on the above conclusions, the dissertation will further explore farmers' interests and influencing factors of "new weather insurance" (or "new loan products") combined by formal financing and weather insurance.
Third, the Ordinal Regression Model is used to investigate farmers' interests and influencing factors of weather insurance (A new loan product requires an increased interest rate, for example, such a loan product has a built-in insurance mechanism so that when a severe drought occurs the amount of debt you have to repay decreases as the intensity of the drought increases. In this paper, it is called new type of weather insurance or loan product.). 57.1% farmers are interested in this new type of weather insurance. Compared with men, women are more interested in it; whether be willing to borrow more money, agricultural acreage, whether be willing to buy weather insurance exert negative influence on the famers’interest in this new type of weather insurance. However, the factors including degree of education, how long engaged in farming work, types of borrowing, whether farming is the main source of income, capita income, asset-liability ratio, whether a loan ever being refused, whether be willing to adopt new species, whether be willing to adopt new species, whether suffering drought, whether abandon agriculture don’t have significant influence on the famers’interest to the new type of weather insurance or loan product.
Fourth, through using comparative analysis, this section discusses the preventive measures for weather risk both at home and abroad (sound governmental security system, perfect law setup, well-developed agricultural insurance system, modern rural financial system, canonical eco-environmental protection system, etc), This research intends to provide reference which can effectively prevent weather risk and improve the farmers’formal financing capacity in western China.
Fifth, according to the above theories and empirical results, the author puts forward recommendations and main countermeasures which can prevent the weather risk, improve the ability of farmers’formal financing in western China and promote the development of finance in western rural China from the aspects of government, financial institution, insurance company, farmers of western China, environmental protection sector, meteorological department and others.
引文
曹辛欣. 2007.论农户小额信贷的风险及其化解对策.金融与经济,5:80～82
陈春生. 2009.陕西农户结构、金融需求与发展对策的实证分析.西北农林科技大学学报,9(4):1～5
陈春生. 2008.农村金融发展模式与路径的探讨——基于“功能观”范式和动态农户需求视角.西北大学学报.哲学社会科学版,5:32～37
陈风波,陈传波,丁世军. 2005.中国南方农户的干旱风险及其处理策略.中国农村经济,6:61～67
陈传波. 2007.农户多样化选择行为实证分析.农业技术经济,1:48～54
陈靖. 2004.天气期货在中国的开发和应用.上海金融,12:11~13
丁士军,陈传波. 2001.农户风险处理策略分析.农业现代化研究,22(6):346～349
何广文. 2001.中国农村金融供求特征及均衡供求.中国农村经济,10:40～45
胡爱军,祝燕德,何逸,熊一鹏. 2006.天气风险管理策略分析.经济地理,26:326～
328
黄小玉. 2007.我国天气风险管理的问题及对策.商业时代,30:6～7
霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,刘锦銮,薛昌颖. 2003.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究.自然资源学报,6:692～703
刘明亮,陈百明. 2000.自然灾害发生状况的相关分析.灾害学,15(4):78～85
赖春兰,郑发生,杜锦川. 2005.现行县域金融架构下小额农贷风险补偿机制初探.金融与经济,12:108～109
李茂松,李章成,王道龙,杨修,钟秀丽,李正,李育慧. 2005. 50年来我国自然灾害变化对粮食产量的影响.自然资源学报,14(2):55～60
雷星晖,苏涛永. 2006.我国农业自然灾害保险市场分析及其合理模式.自然灾害学报,15(6):137～140
龙健,宋奇成,王茜. 2005.我国农业自然风险保险体系的选择与实践.农村经济,6:85～57
刘璐,赵东,赵西社,年启华,段昌辉. 2008.陕西社会公众对高影响天气事件的风险关注度差异比较.气象科学,28(5):586～590
罗慧,吴宁强,张雄,李彩莲,石昌民. 2008.咸阳高影响天气事件风险评估方法.陕西气象,3:33～36
马宗晋. 1994.中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论).北京:科学出版社
马燕玲. 2007.国外农业保险的经验及其对我国的启示.金融与经济. 6:42~44
牛庆煌. 2006.经济欠发达地区农村金融支持农民情况的调查.河南金融管理干部学院学报,2(128):134～136
阮红新,杨海军,雷春柱. 2003.信贷资产分散条件下的风险与收益:对农户小额信用贷款的实证研究.管理世界,9:95～102
史培军,王静爱,谢云,王平,周武光. 1997.最近15年来中国气候变化、农业自然灾害与粮食生产的初步研究.自然资源学报,12(3):197～203
宋磊、李俊丽. 2006.农户信贷需求与农村金融市场非均衡态势的实证分析——基于泰安市农户信贷供求现状的调查.农业经济问题,7:55～61
孙礼辉,孔荣. 2009.农户投资非农产业意愿及其满意度的影响因素分析.华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),4(8):22~27
王国敏. 2005.农业自然灾害与农村贫困问题研究.经济学家,3:55～61
王志强,杨春燕,王静爱,商彦蕊. 2005.基于农户尺度的农业旱灾成灾风险评价与可持续发展.自然灾害学报,14(6):94～99
谢永刚,袁丽丽,孙亚楠. 2007.自然灾害对农户经济的影响及农户承灾力分析.自然灾害学报,16(6):171～179
徐秋慧. 2005.论农户生产经营的自然风险与控制.山东行政学院山东省经济管理干部学院学报,1(65):73～75
徐怀礼. 2007.国外天气衍生品市场现状及对我国农业灾害风险管理的启示.现代商贸工业,19(5):69～70
熊存开. 1994.国外农业风险管理研究.农业经济问题:1～61
尹晨,许晓茵. 2007.论天气衍生产品与农业风险管理.财经理论与实践,28(145):56～59
张玫,霍增辉,丁士军. 2005.干旱风险:南方农户生产行为、消费行为分析.农村经济,7:103～105
周可军,杨洪涛,任毅华. 2003.浅析支农贷款形成风险的原因及对策.经济师,12:285
周云. 2005.怎样防范小额农贷的潜在风险.金融信息参考,7:68～69
Andrew Dorward, Colin Poulton, Jonathan Kydd .2001.Rural and Farmer Finance:an International Perspective. http://purl.umn.edu/10924
Anne Goes,Jerry R.Skees.2003. Financing Natural Disaster Risk Using Charity Contributions and Ex Ante Index Insurance. http://purl.umn.edu/22188
Blair R. Zanzig, Charles B. Moss, and Andrew Schmitz. 1997. Natural Disasters and the Yield Curve of Florida Valencias.http://purl.umn.edu/35827
Barrett E. Kirwan. 2009. Adversity and the Propensity to Fail:The Impact of Disaster Payments and Multiple Peril Crop Insurance on U.S. Farm Exit Rates. http://purl.umn.edu/49569
Betty.1999.Identifying and mapping community vulnerability. Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management, 23(1):1～18
Carlo Cafiero,Federica Angelucci,Fabian Capitanio, Michele Vollaro.2007. Index Based Compensation for Weather Risk in the Italian Agriculture. A Feasibility Study Based on Actual Historic Data. http://purl.umn.edu/9261
Calum G. Turvey. 1999. Weather Derivatives and Specific Event Risk. http://purl.umn.edu/21550
T urvey, C. G., R. Kong. 2010. Weather Risk and the Viabilit y of Weather In surance in China’s Gansu, Shaanxi, and Henan Provinces. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2: 45～58
Dmitry V. Vedenov, Gabriel J. Power. 2008. Risk～Reducing Effectiveness of Revenue versus Yield Insurance in the Presence of Government Payments.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,40(2)
Denis Nadolnyak. 2009. Weather, Climate, and Agricultural Disaster Payments in the Southeastern U.S.http://purl.umn.edu/51802
IQBAL, F. 1983. The demand for funds by agricultural households: Evidences from rural india. Journal of Development Studies, 20:1
Jerry R.Skees. 2008. Innovations in Index Insurance for the Poor in Lower Income Countries. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 37(1)
John O’Tool.2002.Food Security: Area of Work Strategy—Resilient Crops for Water limited Environments, Rock feller Foundation’s study paper , Memo , Rock feller Foundation Jinno K. et al.1995.Risk Assessment of a water supply system during drought. Water Resources Development, 11(2):185～203
Lisha zhang. 2008. Assessing the Demand for Weather Index Insurance in Shandong Province, China. Lexington, kentucky
LONG,M. G.1968.Why peasant’s farmers borrow ?.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,50:4
McKinnon, Ronald I.1973. Money and Capital in Economic Development.Washington DC, The Brookings Institution
Musshoff O., Hirschauer N..2008. Improved Program Planning Generates Large Benefits in High Risk Crop Farming～A Profitable Application of Time Series Models and Stochastic Optimization. http://purl.umn.edu/44174
Mark R.Rosenzweig.1989. Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability:of Agricultural in Vestments. http://purl.umn.edu/7455
Michael A. Tannura, Scott Hiring, Darrel Logwood .2008. Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt. http://purl.umn.edu/37501
Olaf Heidelbach. 2009.Crop Insurance Market Development In A transition Economy:the Case of Kazakhstan. http://purl.umn.edu/51614
Payments and Multiple Peril Crop Insurance on U.S. Farm Exit Rates. http://purl.umn.edu/49569
Shanshan Lin, Jeffrey D. Mullen, Gerrit Hoogenboom. 2008. Farm～Level Risk Management Using Irrigation and Weather Derivatives. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 40(2)
Shanshan Lin, Jeffrey D.Mullen, Gerrit Hoogenboom Spatialand Temporal. 2009. On～Farm Risk Management～Crop Production Scheduling and Index Insurance Strategies. http://purl.umn.edu/49350
Shaw, Edward.1973. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York, Oxford University Press
Stark,O., et al.1986.Remittances and Inequality. The Economic Journal, 96 Takahiro Ito. 2006. Weather Risk and the Off～Farm Labor Supply of Agricultural Households in India.http://purl.umn.edu/25774
Turvey.2009. Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance in China’s Gansu, Shaanxi, and Henan Provinces. http://purl.umn.edu/49362
Vasco Molini, Michiel Keyzer, Bart van den Boom, Wouter Zant. 2007. Creating safety nets through semi～parametric index～based insurance:A simulation for Northern Ghana. http://purl.umn.edu/9263
Wei Xu, Martin Odening, Oliver Mu?hoff. 2008. Optimal Design of Weather Bonds. http://purl.umn.edu/6781
Wei Xu, Guenther Filler, Martin Odening. 2009. On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk. http://purl.umn.edu/51426
Yasuyuki Sawada. 2006. 2006. The Impact of Natural and Manmade Disasters on Household Welfare. http://purl.umn.edu/25750
Yaron, Benjamin, Piprek.1997.Rural Finance:Issues, Design and Best Practice, Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Studies and Monographs Series 14.World Bank.Washington DC, 7
陈春生. 2009.陕西农户结构、金融需求与发展对策的实证分析.西北农林科技大学学报,9(4):1～5
陈春生. 2008.农村金融发展模式与路径的探讨——基于“功能观”范式和动态农户需求视角.西北大学学报.哲学社会科学版,5:32～37
陈风波,陈传波,丁世军. 2005.中国南方农户的干旱风险及其处理策略.中国农村经济,6:61～67
陈传波. 2007.农户多样化选择行为实证分析.农业技术经济,1:48～54
陈靖. 2004.天气期货在中国的开发和应用.上海金融,12:11~13
丁士军,陈传波. 2001.农户风险处理策略分析.农业现代化研究,22(6):346～349
何广文. 2001.中国农村金融供求特征及均衡供求.中国农村经济,10:40～45
胡爱军,祝燕德,何逸,熊一鹏. 2006.天气风险管理策略分析.经济地理,26:326～
328
黄小玉. 2007.我国天气风险管理的问题及对策.商业时代,30:6～7
霍治国,李世奎,王素艳,刘锦銮,薛昌颖. 2003.主要农业气象灾害风险评估技术及其应用研究.自然资源学报,6:692～703
刘明亮,陈百明. 2000.自然灾害发生状况的相关分析.灾害学,15(4):78～85
赖春兰,郑发生,杜锦川. 2005.现行县域金融架构下小额农贷风险补偿机制初探.金融与经济,12:108～109
李茂松,李章成,王道龙,杨修,钟秀丽,李正,李育慧. 2005. 50年来我国自然灾害变化对粮食产量的影响.自然资源学报,14(2):55～60
雷星晖,苏涛永. 2006.我国农业自然灾害保险市场分析及其合理模式.自然灾害学报,15(6):137～140
龙健,宋奇成,王茜. 2005.我国农业自然风险保险体系的选择与实践.农村经济,6:85～57
刘璐,赵东,赵西社,年启华,段昌辉. 2008.陕西社会公众对高影响天气事件的风险关注度差异比较.气象科学,28(5):586～590
罗慧,吴宁强,张雄,李彩莲,石昌民. 2008.咸阳高影响天气事件风险评估方法.陕西气象,3:33～36
马宗晋. 1994.中国重大自然灾害及减灾对策(总论).北京:科学出版社
马燕玲. 2007.国外农业保险的经验及其对我国的启示.金融与经济. 6:42~44
牛庆煌. 2006.经济欠发达地区农村金融支持农民情况的调查.河南金融管理干部学院学报,2(128):134～136
阮红新,杨海军,雷春柱. 2003.信贷资产分散条件下的风险与收益:对农户小额信用贷款的实证研究.管理世界,9:95～102
史培军,王静爱,谢云,王平,周武光. 1997.最近15年来中国气候变化、农业自然灾害与粮食生产的初步研究.自然资源学报,12(3):197～203
宋磊、李俊丽. 2006.农户信贷需求与农村金融市场非均衡态势的实证分析——基于泰安市农户信贷供求现状的调查.农业经济问题,7:55～61
孙礼辉,孔荣. 2009.农户投资非农产业意愿及其满意度的影响因素分析.华南农业大学学报(社会科学版),4(8):22~27
王国敏. 2005.农业自然灾害与农村贫困问题研究.经济学家,3:55～61
王志强,杨春燕,王静爱,商彦蕊. 2005.基于农户尺度的农业旱灾成灾风险评价与可持续发展.自然灾害学报,14(6):94～99
谢永刚,袁丽丽,孙亚楠. 2007.自然灾害对农户经济的影响及农户承灾力分析.自然灾害学报,16(6):171～179
徐秋慧. 2005.论农户生产经营的自然风险与控制.山东行政学院山东省经济管理干部学院学报,1(65):73～75
徐怀礼. 2007.国外天气衍生品市场现状及对我国农业灾害风险管理的启示.现代商贸工业,19(5):69～70
熊存开. 1994.国外农业风险管理研究.农业经济问题:1～61
尹晨,许晓茵. 2007.论天气衍生产品与农业风险管理.财经理论与实践,28(145):56～59
张玫,霍增辉,丁士军. 2005.干旱风险:南方农户生产行为、消费行为分析.农村经济,7:103～105
周可军,杨洪涛,任毅华. 2003.浅析支农贷款形成风险的原因及对策.经济师,12:285
周云. 2005.怎样防范小额农贷的潜在风险.金融信息参考,7:68～69
Andrew Dorward, Colin Poulton, Jonathan Kydd .2001.Rural and Farmer Finance:an International Perspective. http://purl.umn.edu/10924
Anne Goes,Jerry R.Skees.2003. Financing Natural Disaster Risk Using Charity Contributions and Ex Ante Index Insurance. http://purl.umn.edu/22188
Blair R. Zanzig, Charles B. Moss, and Andrew Schmitz. 1997. Natural Disasters and the Yield Curve of Florida Valencias.http://purl.umn.edu/35827
Barrett E. Kirwan. 2009. Adversity and the Propensity to Fail:The Impact of Disaster Payments and Multiple Peril Crop Insurance on U.S. Farm Exit Rates. http://purl.umn.edu/49569
Betty.1999.Identifying and mapping community vulnerability. Journal of Disaster Studies, Policy and Management, 23(1):1～18
Carlo Cafiero,Federica Angelucci,Fabian Capitanio, Michele Vollaro.2007. Index Based Compensation for Weather Risk in the Italian Agriculture. A Feasibility Study Based on Actual Historic Data. http://purl.umn.edu/9261
Calum G. Turvey. 1999. Weather Derivatives and Specific Event Risk. http://purl.umn.edu/21550
T urvey, C. G., R. Kong. 2010. Weather Risk and the Viabilit y of Weather In surance in China’s Gansu, Shaanxi, and Henan Provinces. China Agricultural Economic Review, 2: 45～58
Dmitry V. Vedenov, Gabriel J. Power. 2008. Risk～Reducing Effectiveness of Revenue versus Yield Insurance in the Presence of Government Payments.Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics,40(2)
Denis Nadolnyak. 2009. Weather, Climate, and Agricultural Disaster Payments in the Southeastern U.S.http://purl.umn.edu/51802
IQBAL, F. 1983. The demand for funds by agricultural households: Evidences from rural india. Journal of Development Studies, 20:1
Jerry R.Skees. 2008. Innovations in Index Insurance for the Poor in Lower Income Countries. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 37(1)
John O’Tool.2002.Food Security: Area of Work Strategy—Resilient Crops for Water limited Environments, Rock feller Foundation’s study paper , Memo , Rock feller Foundation Jinno K. et al.1995.Risk Assessment of a water supply system during drought. Water Resources Development, 11(2):185～203
Lisha zhang. 2008. Assessing the Demand for Weather Index Insurance in Shandong Province, China. Lexington, kentucky
LONG,M. G.1968.Why peasant’s farmers borrow ?.American Journal of Agricultural Economics,50:4
McKinnon, Ronald I.1973. Money and Capital in Economic Development.Washington DC, The Brookings Institution
Musshoff O., Hirschauer N..2008. Improved Program Planning Generates Large Benefits in High Risk Crop Farming～A Profitable Application of Time Series Models and Stochastic Optimization. http://purl.umn.edu/44174
Mark R.Rosenzweig.1989. Wealth, Weather Risk and the Composition and Profitability:of Agricultural in Vestments. http://purl.umn.edu/7455
Michael A. Tannura, Scott Hiring, Darrel Logwood .2008. Weather, Technology, and Corn and Soybean Yields in the U.S. Corn Belt. http://purl.umn.edu/37501
Olaf Heidelbach. 2009.Crop Insurance Market Development In A transition Economy:the Case of Kazakhstan. http://purl.umn.edu/51614
Payments and Multiple Peril Crop Insurance on U.S. Farm Exit Rates. http://purl.umn.edu/49569
Shanshan Lin, Jeffrey D. Mullen, Gerrit Hoogenboom. 2008. Farm～Level Risk Management Using Irrigation and Weather Derivatives. Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 40(2)
Shanshan Lin, Jeffrey D.Mullen, Gerrit Hoogenboom Spatialand Temporal. 2009. On～Farm Risk Management～Crop Production Scheduling and Index Insurance Strategies. http://purl.umn.edu/49350
Shaw, Edward.1973. Financial Deepening in Economic Development. New York, Oxford University Press
Stark,O., et al.1986.Remittances and Inequality. The Economic Journal, 96 Takahiro Ito. 2006. Weather Risk and the Off～Farm Labor Supply of Agricultural Households in India.http://purl.umn.edu/25774
Turvey.2009. Weather Risk and the Viability of Weather Insurance in China’s Gansu, Shaanxi, and Henan Provinces. http://purl.umn.edu/49362
Vasco Molini, Michiel Keyzer, Bart van den Boom, Wouter Zant. 2007. Creating safety nets through semi～parametric index～based insurance:A simulation for Northern Ghana. http://purl.umn.edu/9263
Wei Xu, Martin Odening, Oliver Mu?hoff. 2008. Optimal Design of Weather Bonds. http://purl.umn.edu/6781
Wei Xu, Guenther Filler, Martin Odening. 2009. On the Systemic Nature of Weather Risk. http://purl.umn.edu/51426
Yasuyuki Sawada. 2006. 2006. The Impact of Natural and Manmade Disasters on Household Welfare. http://purl.umn.edu/25750
Yaron, Benjamin, Piprek.1997.Rural Finance:Issues, Design and Best Practice, Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development Studies and Monographs Series 14.World Bank.Washington DC, 7