东北地区粮食作物气象指数农业保险合同设计
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摘要
农业保险这一重要金融工具在发达国家对于提高农业发展水平和农民收入水平发挥了重要作用。然而现阶段我国农业保险发展却呈现出了滞后和萎缩,农业保险公司亏损严重,与其在国民经济中的重要地位不相匹配。而我国农业保险发展滞后的一个重要原因则是传统险种与我国农业经济发展模式不匹配。在这样一个背景下,本文提出气象指数农业保险这一新险种的理论和设计实践,对于解决中国农业保险现阶段面临的问题具有非常重要的意义。
早在2002年开始,世界银行的商品风险管理组织(CRMG)就在发展中国家推动气象指数保险。从2003年以来,在印度建立了第一个试点以后,陆续有墨西哥等许多发展中国家进行了相关试点。试点收效显著,对农民的风险管理和防范起到了重要作用。
中国于2007年引入气象指数农业保险。2007年6月,中国农业部、国际农业发展基金与联合国世界粮食计划署共同商讨开展农村脆弱地区天气指数农业保险的合作。2007年底,安徽省被中央确定为第二批政策性农业保险试点省份,并承担了气象指数农业保险试点的任务。在中外专家的指导下,国元农业保险公司设计出了以长丰县为样本的水稻种植天气指数保险产品,并于2009年5月25日通过中国保监会备案,并已面向长丰县农户发行。这是截至目前我国唯一的一份气候指数农业保险。
本文在已有研究成果的启发下,利用面板数据模型设计了东北地区的粮食作物气象指数保险合同的制作方法。本文采用黑龙江、辽宁两省27个地级市13年的数据,根据气温、降水量和日照时间3个指标,设计了专门针对东北地区粮食作物的气象指数农业保险合同,是气象指数农业保险研究领域的一个创新,可以为该领域后续的研究工作及农业保险市场实践提供一定的借鉴作用。
As an important financial tool, agricultural insurance plays a great role in the development of agriculture and the income of farmers in western countries. However, the development of Chinese agricultural insurance is lagging behind. Agricultural insurance companies lose money seriously, which doesn’t match the role of the agricultural insurance in economy. One of the reasons is that the traditional insurance doesn’t suit the agricultural output model. In such a context, this paper puts forward a new kind of agricultural insurance, weather index agricultural insurance, to solve China's agricultural insurance problems faced at this stage.
Since 2002, the World Bank's commodity risk management organization (CRMG) has been promoting weather index insurance in developing countries. After the first trial in 2003 in India, many developing countries such as Mexico were related to the pilot . Weather index insurance plays an important role in farmers’risk management.
China introduced weather index of agricultural insurance in 2007.The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, IFAD and the United Nations World Food Programme discussed the cooperation in the weather index for rural agricultural insurance in vulnerable areas in June 2007. In the end of 2007, Anhui Province was identified as the pilot province of weather index agricultural insurance. Under the guidance of Chinese and foreign experts, Guoyuan Insurance Company designs a sample of rice planting weather index agricultural insurance based on Changfeng County, and was recorded by China Insurance Regulatory Commission on May 25, 2009. The insurance has been issued to farmers in Changfeng County. This is so far the only climate index Agricultural Insurance in China
Inspired by existed research results, this paper uses the panel data model to design a weather index crop insurance contract in Northeast. This paper utilizes data of 27 cities of Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces in the recent 13 years, according to temperature, precipitation and sunshine indicators, to design a specific weather index crop insurance for Northeast China, which could be considered as an innovation in the field, in order to provide a reference for following research and practice of weather index agricultural insurance market of China.
早在2002年开始,世界银行的商品风险管理组织(CRMG)就在发展中国家推动气象指数保险。从2003年以来,在印度建立了第一个试点以后,陆续有墨西哥等许多发展中国家进行了相关试点。试点收效显著,对农民的风险管理和防范起到了重要作用。
中国于2007年引入气象指数农业保险。2007年6月,中国农业部、国际农业发展基金与联合国世界粮食计划署共同商讨开展农村脆弱地区天气指数农业保险的合作。2007年底,安徽省被中央确定为第二批政策性农业保险试点省份,并承担了气象指数农业保险试点的任务。在中外专家的指导下,国元农业保险公司设计出了以长丰县为样本的水稻种植天气指数保险产品,并于2009年5月25日通过中国保监会备案,并已面向长丰县农户发行。这是截至目前我国唯一的一份气候指数农业保险。
本文在已有研究成果的启发下,利用面板数据模型设计了东北地区的粮食作物气象指数保险合同的制作方法。本文采用黑龙江、辽宁两省27个地级市13年的数据,根据气温、降水量和日照时间3个指标,设计了专门针对东北地区粮食作物的气象指数农业保险合同,是气象指数农业保险研究领域的一个创新,可以为该领域后续的研究工作及农业保险市场实践提供一定的借鉴作用。
As an important financial tool, agricultural insurance plays a great role in the development of agriculture and the income of farmers in western countries. However, the development of Chinese agricultural insurance is lagging behind. Agricultural insurance companies lose money seriously, which doesn’t match the role of the agricultural insurance in economy. One of the reasons is that the traditional insurance doesn’t suit the agricultural output model. In such a context, this paper puts forward a new kind of agricultural insurance, weather index agricultural insurance, to solve China's agricultural insurance problems faced at this stage.
Since 2002, the World Bank's commodity risk management organization (CRMG) has been promoting weather index insurance in developing countries. After the first trial in 2003 in India, many developing countries such as Mexico were related to the pilot . Weather index insurance plays an important role in farmers’risk management.
China introduced weather index of agricultural insurance in 2007.The Chinese Ministry of Agriculture, IFAD and the United Nations World Food Programme discussed the cooperation in the weather index for rural agricultural insurance in vulnerable areas in June 2007. In the end of 2007, Anhui Province was identified as the pilot province of weather index agricultural insurance. Under the guidance of Chinese and foreign experts, Guoyuan Insurance Company designs a sample of rice planting weather index agricultural insurance based on Changfeng County, and was recorded by China Insurance Regulatory Commission on May 25, 2009. The insurance has been issued to farmers in Changfeng County. This is so far the only climate index Agricultural Insurance in China
Inspired by existed research results, this paper uses the panel data model to design a weather index crop insurance contract in Northeast. This paper utilizes data of 27 cities of Heilongjiang and Liaoning provinces in the recent 13 years, according to temperature, precipitation and sunshine indicators, to design a specific weather index crop insurance for Northeast China, which could be considered as an innovation in the field, in order to provide a reference for following research and practice of weather index agricultural insurance market of China.
引文
[1]娄伟平,吴利红,姚益平,.水稻暴雨灾害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2010,(3).
[2]刘映宁,贺文丽,李艳莉,柏秦凤,梁轶,张涛,.陕西果区苹果花期冻害农业保险风险指数的设计[J].中国农业气象,2010,(1).
[3]王克,张峭,.农作物单产风险分布对保险费率厘定的影响——以新疆3县(市)棉花单产保险为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2010,(2).
[4]殷圣平,.关于水稻保险气象指数分区分级定损法的思考[J].上海保险,2010,(1).
[5]张宪强,潘勇辉,.农业气候指数保险的国际实践及对中国的启示[J].社会科学,2010,(1).
[6]娄伟平,吴利红,邱新法,唐启义,苏高利,毛裕定,.柑桔农业气象灾害风险评估及农业保险产品设计[J].自然资源学报,2009,(6).
[7]娄伟平,吴利红,倪沪平,唐启义,毛裕定,.柑橘冻害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2009,(4).
[8]李文芳,徐勇,方伶俐,.湖北水稻区域产量保险合同设计研究[J].湖北工业大学学报,2009,(6).
[9]于宁宁,陈盛伟,.天气指数保险国内外研究综述[J].山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,(4).
[10]李文亮,张冬有,张丽娟,.黑龙江省气象灾害风险评估与区划[J].干旱区地理,2009,(5).
[11]王扬锋,陆忠艳,马雁军,.东北地区渍涝风险气象等级预报[J].江西农业大学学报,2009,(5).
[12]陈新建,陶建平,.基于风险区划的水稻区域产量保险费率研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,(4).
[13]曹雪琴,.农业保险产品创新和天气指数保险的应用——印度实践评析与借鉴[J].上海保险,2008,(8).
[14]江和文,李春,曹士民,杨文艳,.盘锦水稻产量灾损风险及气象影响因子分析[J].气象,2008,(5).
[15]毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,姚益平,苏高利,.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计[J].中国农业气象,2007,(2).
[16]王丽红,杨华,田志宏,闫仲勇,.非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究——以河北安国市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2007,(1).
[17]周玉淑,邓国,齐斌,张敏.中国粮食产量保险费率的订定方法和保险费率区划[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,(6).
[18]郭迎春,闫宜玲,王卫,王春乙.农业自然风险评估及区域农业保险费率的确定方法[J].应用气象学报,1998,(2).
[19] Miranda M, Vedenov D V. Innovations in agricultural and natural disaster insurance. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2001, 83(3): 650-655.
[20] Skees J R, Black J R, Barnett B J. Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance contract. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1997, 79: 430-438.
[21] Smith V H. Federal crop and crop revenue insurance programs: Income protection. [2009-12-02] http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/ agsmospcb/ 29227. htm.
[22] Binici T, Zulauf C R. Determining wheat crop insurance premium based on area yield insurance scheme in Konya Province, Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2006, 6(5): 1148-1152.
[23] Raphael N K, Holly H W, Douglas L Y. Weather-based crop insurance contracts for african countries// International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference. Gold Coast, Australia, 2006.
[24] Barry J B, Olivier M. Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2007, 89(5): 1241-1247.
[25] Paulson N D, Hart C E. A spatial approach to addressing weather derivative basis risk: A drought insurance example//2006 Annual Meeting of American Agricultural Economics Association. Iowa State University, Ames, 2006.
[26] Varangis P, Skees J, Barnett B. Weather indexes for developing countries// Dischel R S. Climate Risk and the Weather Market. World Bank, University of Kentucky and University of Georgia, 2005.
[27] Skees J R, Varangis P, Larson D, Siegel P. Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks?//World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series. Washington, D C, 2002.
[28] Hess U, Syroka J. Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa: The case of Malawi//Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 13. the World Bank, Washington, D C, 2005.
[29] Smith V H, Chouinard H H, Baquet A E. Almost ideal area yield crop insurance contracts. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1994, 23(1): 75-83.
[30] Chantarat C, Barrett C B, Mude A G, Turvey C G. Using weather index insurance to improve drought response for famine prevention. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2007, 89(5): 1262-1268.
[31] Barnett B J. Agricultural index insurance products: Strengths and limitations//The 2004 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Arlington, Virginia, 2004.
[32] Glauber J W. Crop insurance reconsidered. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004, 86(5): 1179-1195.
[33] Ishimaru K, Togawa E, Ookawa T. New target for rice lodging resistance and its effect in a typhoon. Planta, 2008, 227(3): 601-609.
[34] Davidson R A, Lambert K B. Comparing the hurricane disaster risk of U. S. coastal counties. Natural Hazards Review, 2001, 2(3): 132-142.
[35] Goovaerts P. Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 228(1/2): 113-129.
[2]刘映宁,贺文丽,李艳莉,柏秦凤,梁轶,张涛,.陕西果区苹果花期冻害农业保险风险指数的设计[J].中国农业气象,2010,(1).
[3]王克,张峭,.农作物单产风险分布对保险费率厘定的影响——以新疆3县(市)棉花单产保险为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2010,(2).
[4]殷圣平,.关于水稻保险气象指数分区分级定损法的思考[J].上海保险,2010,(1).
[5]张宪强,潘勇辉,.农业气候指数保险的国际实践及对中国的启示[J].社会科学,2010,(1).
[6]娄伟平,吴利红,邱新法,唐启义,苏高利,毛裕定,.柑桔农业气象灾害风险评估及农业保险产品设计[J].自然资源学报,2009,(6).
[7]娄伟平,吴利红,倪沪平,唐启义,毛裕定,.柑橘冻害保险气象理赔指数设计[J].中国农业科学,2009,(4).
[8]李文芳,徐勇,方伶俐,.湖北水稻区域产量保险合同设计研究[J].湖北工业大学学报,2009,(6).
[9]于宁宁,陈盛伟,.天气指数保险国内外研究综述[J].山东农业大学学报(社会科学版),2009,(4).
[10]李文亮,张冬有,张丽娟,.黑龙江省气象灾害风险评估与区划[J].干旱区地理,2009,(5).
[11]王扬锋,陆忠艳,马雁军,.东北地区渍涝风险气象等级预报[J].江西农业大学学报,2009,(5).
[12]陈新建,陶建平,.基于风险区划的水稻区域产量保险费率研究[J].华中农业大学学报(社会科学版),2008,(4).
[13]曹雪琴,.农业保险产品创新和天气指数保险的应用——印度实践评析与借鉴[J].上海保险,2008,(8).
[14]江和文,李春,曹士民,杨文艳,.盘锦水稻产量灾损风险及气象影响因子分析[J].气象,2008,(5).
[15]毛裕定,吴利红,苗长明,姚益平,苏高利,.浙江省柑桔冻害气象指数保险参考设计[J].中国农业气象,2007,(2).
[16]王丽红,杨华,田志宏,闫仲勇,.非参数核密度法厘定玉米区域产量保险费率研究——以河北安国市为例[J].中国农业大学学报,2007,(1).
[17]周玉淑,邓国,齐斌,张敏.中国粮食产量保险费率的订定方法和保险费率区划[J].南京气象学院学报,2003,(6).
[18]郭迎春,闫宜玲,王卫,王春乙.农业自然风险评估及区域农业保险费率的确定方法[J].应用气象学报,1998,(2).
[19] Miranda M, Vedenov D V. Innovations in agricultural and natural disaster insurance. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2001, 83(3): 650-655.
[20] Skees J R, Black J R, Barnett B J. Designing and rating an area yield crop insurance contract. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 1997, 79: 430-438.
[21] Smith V H. Federal crop and crop revenue insurance programs: Income protection. [2009-12-02] http://econpapers.repec.org/paper/ agsmospcb/ 29227. htm.
[22] Binici T, Zulauf C R. Determining wheat crop insurance premium based on area yield insurance scheme in Konya Province, Turkey. Journal of Applied Sciences, 2006, 6(5): 1148-1152.
[23] Raphael N K, Holly H W, Douglas L Y. Weather-based crop insurance contracts for african countries// International Association of Agricultural Economists Conference. Gold Coast, Australia, 2006.
[24] Barry J B, Olivier M. Weather index insurance for agriculture and rural areas in lower-income countries. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2007, 89(5): 1241-1247.
[25] Paulson N D, Hart C E. A spatial approach to addressing weather derivative basis risk: A drought insurance example//2006 Annual Meeting of American Agricultural Economics Association. Iowa State University, Ames, 2006.
[26] Varangis P, Skees J, Barnett B. Weather indexes for developing countries// Dischel R S. Climate Risk and the Weather Market. World Bank, University of Kentucky and University of Georgia, 2005.
[27] Skees J R, Varangis P, Larson D, Siegel P. Can financial markets be tapped to help poor people cope with weather risks?//World Bank Policy Research Working Paper Series. Washington, D C, 2002.
[28] Hess U, Syroka J. Weather-based insurance in Southern Africa: The case of Malawi//Agriculture and Rural Development Discussion Paper 13. the World Bank, Washington, D C, 2005.
[29] Smith V H, Chouinard H H, Baquet A E. Almost ideal area yield crop insurance contracts. Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, 1994, 23(1): 75-83.
[30] Chantarat C, Barrett C B, Mude A G, Turvey C G. Using weather index insurance to improve drought response for famine prevention. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2007, 89(5): 1262-1268.
[31] Barnett B J. Agricultural index insurance products: Strengths and limitations//The 2004 USDA Agricultural Outlook Forum. Arlington, Virginia, 2004.
[32] Glauber J W. Crop insurance reconsidered. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 2004, 86(5): 1179-1195.
[33] Ishimaru K, Togawa E, Ookawa T. New target for rice lodging resistance and its effect in a typhoon. Planta, 2008, 227(3): 601-609.
[34] Davidson R A, Lambert K B. Comparing the hurricane disaster risk of U. S. coastal counties. Natural Hazards Review, 2001, 2(3): 132-142.
[35] Goovaerts P. Geostatistical approaches for incorporating elevation into the spatial interpolation of rainfall. Journal of Hydrology, 2000, 228(1/2): 113-129.