城市埋地天然气管道的脆弱性评估研究
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摘要
天然气作为能源材料具有易燃、易爆、有毒等危险特性,而城市天然气管道作为输送媒介,是确保天然气安全使用的关键环节,因此,评价和掌握城市各区域天然气管道的安全状况具有重要的现实意义。
作为风险研究的重要工具之一,脆弱性评估研究已被提升到前所未有的重要地位。本文即借助该评估方法,对城市天然气管道的综合安全状况进行评价。
首先,综合国内外各领域关于脆弱性研究的现有成果,掌握脆弱性评估的核心内容,结合论文实现的目的,定义城市埋地天然气管道的脆弱性内涵；其次,结合给定的脆弱性定义,分析影响管道脆弱性的指标因素,并根据实际情况对指标进行科学筛选,建立城市埋地天然气管道脆弱性评估指标体系；接着,在对常用脆弱性评估方法和天然气管道取值方法适用性比较基础上,选取层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法作为本论文的评估手段,并建立脆弱性评估的模糊层次综合评价模型；最后,选取北京三环和五环某两段埋地天然气管道作为实例研究对象,通过专家打分确定各指标脆弱程度隶属度,借助模糊评价模型进行最大脆弱度计算,通过脆弱度比较,确定评估对象的脆弱等级。
本论文的目的是管道相对脆弱程度的体现和比较,因此在指标体系和评估模型的建立过程中,并没有涵盖所有的风险指标,但却增加了以往风险评估所不考虑的应对能力因素。该指标对系统脆弱程度的抵消作用将更好的引导安全管理工作向深入发展。
Gas is one of the raw materials. It has flammable, explosive, toxic and other dangerous properties. As the transportation medium, Municipal natural gas pipeline is the key link to the natural gas safety. Therefore, to appraise and know the safe condition of the urban various regions gas pipeline is vital significant.
As one of the risk investigation's important tools, the vulnerable appraisal research has been promoted to the unprecedented important position. This article namely draws support from this appraisal method, carries on the appraisal to the city gas line's synthesis safe condition.
Firstly, synthesizing the domestic and foreign various domains about the vulnerable research existing achievement, grasping the central content of the vulnerable appraisal combining the goal of the article, defines the connotation of bury gas pipeline's vulnerability in city; Secondly, according to the definition which assigns, analyzing the influential indicators of vulnerable pipeline, establishes the municipal natural gas pipeline's vulnerability assessment index system; Thirdly, at the foundation of used vulnerability assessment method and gas pipeline value method, selecting analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation method as the appraisal method, and establishing the model of vulnerable appraisal; Finally, selects Beijing three link as a case,according to expert determined to define the targets frail degree, to help with the fuzzy evaluation model, through the frailty comparison, determinate the appraisal object frail rank.
The article's goal is to compare pipeline relatively frail degree manifestation. So in the procedure of setting up the indicator system and appraisal model, has not covered all risk indicator, but increasing the dealing with ability factor which the former risk assessment did not consider. Thorough the development, the target system frail degree will give better guidance to the safety management.
作为风险研究的重要工具之一,脆弱性评估研究已被提升到前所未有的重要地位。本文即借助该评估方法,对城市天然气管道的综合安全状况进行评价。
首先,综合国内外各领域关于脆弱性研究的现有成果,掌握脆弱性评估的核心内容,结合论文实现的目的,定义城市埋地天然气管道的脆弱性内涵；其次,结合给定的脆弱性定义,分析影响管道脆弱性的指标因素,并根据实际情况对指标进行科学筛选,建立城市埋地天然气管道脆弱性评估指标体系；接着,在对常用脆弱性评估方法和天然气管道取值方法适用性比较基础上,选取层次分析法和模糊综合评价方法作为本论文的评估手段,并建立脆弱性评估的模糊层次综合评价模型；最后,选取北京三环和五环某两段埋地天然气管道作为实例研究对象,通过专家打分确定各指标脆弱程度隶属度,借助模糊评价模型进行最大脆弱度计算,通过脆弱度比较,确定评估对象的脆弱等级。
本论文的目的是管道相对脆弱程度的体现和比较,因此在指标体系和评估模型的建立过程中,并没有涵盖所有的风险指标,但却增加了以往风险评估所不考虑的应对能力因素。该指标对系统脆弱程度的抵消作用将更好的引导安全管理工作向深入发展。
Gas is one of the raw materials. It has flammable, explosive, toxic and other dangerous properties. As the transportation medium, Municipal natural gas pipeline is the key link to the natural gas safety. Therefore, to appraise and know the safe condition of the urban various regions gas pipeline is vital significant.
As one of the risk investigation's important tools, the vulnerable appraisal research has been promoted to the unprecedented important position. This article namely draws support from this appraisal method, carries on the appraisal to the city gas line's synthesis safe condition.
Firstly, synthesizing the domestic and foreign various domains about the vulnerable research existing achievement, grasping the central content of the vulnerable appraisal combining the goal of the article, defines the connotation of bury gas pipeline's vulnerability in city; Secondly, according to the definition which assigns, analyzing the influential indicators of vulnerable pipeline, establishes the municipal natural gas pipeline's vulnerability assessment index system; Thirdly, at the foundation of used vulnerability assessment method and gas pipeline value method, selecting analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy quality synthetic evaluation method as the appraisal method, and establishing the model of vulnerable appraisal; Finally, selects Beijing three link as a case,according to expert determined to define the targets frail degree, to help with the fuzzy evaluation model, through the frailty comparison, determinate the appraisal object frail rank.
The article's goal is to compare pipeline relatively frail degree manifestation. So in the procedure of setting up the indicator system and appraisal model, has not covered all risk indicator, but increasing the dealing with ability factor which the former risk assessment did not consider. Thorough the development, the target system frail degree will give better guidance to the safety management.
引文
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[36]Available online:http://www.fews.org/fewspub.html.
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[39]邹君,杨玉蓉,田亚平等.南方丘陵区农业水资源脆弱性概念与评价[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(2)：302-310.
[40]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2008,11(3)：6.
[41]姚愉芳,贺菊煌等.中国经济增长与可持续发展——理论、模型与应用[D],167.北京： 社会科学文献出版社,1999.
[42胡健颖,冯泰.实用统计学.北京：北京大学出版社,1996.
[43]Turner Ⅱ B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P A. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J].PNAS,2003,100(14):8074～8079.
[44]王玉梅,郭书平.国外天然气管道事故分析[J].油气储运,2000,19(7)：5-10.
[45]杜艳,谢英,王子豪等.天然气管道事故分析[J].管道技术与设备,2009,2：16-18.
[46]马跃东.哈尔滨市管道煤气事故分析及其预防[J].工业安全与防尘,1999,5：1-4.
[47]马令申.城市埋地燃气管道危险源辨识评价研究与专家系统框架开发[D].北京：北京化工大学,2003.
[48]南京晨报.比利时煤气管道大爆炸[EB/OL]. http://www. xhby. net.
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[2]唐川.城市减灾研究综述[J].云南地理环境研究,2003,15(3)：1～6.
[3]黄助海.建立城市灾害预警系统和治救体系的一些看法[J].中国减灾,2000,10(3)：12-13.
[4]王绍玉,郝春新.关于推进防灾减灾与提高城市可持续发展能力的思考[J].国际地质灾害动态,2000,(3)：4-7.
[5]翟晓敏,盛昭瀚.应急研究综述与展望[J].系统工程理论与实践,1998,(7)：17-24.
[6]孙蕾.沿海城市自然灾害脆弱性评价研究[D].华东师范大学,2007.
[7]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实务[J].自然灾害学报.2002,11(3)：1-9.
[8]UN/ISDR. Living with risk:A global review of disaster reduction initiatives 2004 Version [M]. United Nations Publication,2004.
[9]史培军,邹铭,李保俊等.从区域安全建设到风险管理体系的形成——从第一届世界风险大会看灾害与风险研究的现状与发展趋向[J].地球科学进展,2005,20(2)：173-179.
[10]史培军,郭卫平,李保俊等.减灾与可持续发展模式——从第二次世界减灾大会看中国减灾战略的调整[J].自然灾害学报,2005,14(3)：1-7.
[11]樊运晓.区域承灾体脆弱性综合评价的研究[D].北京,中国地质大学(北京)工程技术学院,2000.
[12]陈倬,佘廉.城市物流系统脆弱性的概念与内涵[J].物流科技,2007,5(8)：5-8.
[13]Timmerman P. Vulnerability Resilience and the Collapse of Society [A].Environmental Monograph[C] Toronto:Institute for Environmental Studies,1981.
[14]沈珍瑶,杨志峰,曹瑜.环境脆弱性研究述评.地质科技情报,2003,22(3)：91-94.
[15]Gabor T and Griffith T K. The Assessment of Community acute Hazardous Materials Incidents[J]. Journal of Hazardous Materials,1980,8:323～333.
[16]Pijawka K D and Radwan A E.The Transportation of Haza Risk Assessment and Hazard Management[A].Dangerous Proper Materials Report[C].September/October,1985,2～11.
[17]刘雪华.脆弱生态区的一个典型例子——坝上康保县的生态径[A].生态环境综合整治和恢复技术研究(第一集)[C].北版社,1992
[18]赵跃龙.中国脆弱生态环境类型分布及其综合整治[M].北京：中国环境出版社,1999
[19]Cutter S L. Living with Risk[M]. London:Edward Arnold,1993
[20]Bohle W C. Bringing Social Theory to Hazards Research:Conditions and Consequences of the Mitigation of Environmental Hazards[J]. Sociological Perspectives,1989,31:147～168.
[21]刘燕华,李秀彬.脆弱生态环境与可持续发展[M].北京：商务印书馆,2001
[22]Gallopin G C, Gutman P, Maletta H. Global impoverishment, sustainable development and the environment. A conceptual approach. International Social Science Journal.1989,121:375-397.
[23]Smithers J, Smit B. Human adaptation to climatic variability and change. Global Environmental Change,1997,7(2),129—146
[24]Burton I, Kates R W, White G F. The Environment as Hazard. New York:Oxford University Press,1978.
[25]Smit B J. Wandel. Adaptation, adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:282-292.
[26]Adger W N. Vulnerability. Global Environmental Change,2006.16:268～281.
[27]Turner Ⅱ, B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P A, et al. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America.2003,100(14):8074～8079.
[28]方修琦,殷培红.弹性、脆弱性和适应——IHDP三个核心概念综述[J].地理科学进展,2007,26(5)：11-22
[29]Folke C. Resilience:the emergence of a perspective for social—ecological systems analyses. Global Environmental Change,2006,16:253～267.
[30]Gunderson L H, Holling C S. eds. Panarchy:Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems. Washington DC:Island Press,2002.
[31]Adger W N. Institutional adaptation to environmental risk under the transition in Vietnam. Annals of the Association of American Geographers,2000,90:738～758.
[32]冯振环.西部地区经济发展的脆弱性与优化调控研究,博士论文,天津大学,2003.
[33]朱书瑞.脆弱性评估模型及其在煤矿企业中的应用研究[D].河南：河南大学,2008.
[34]CARTER W. Disaster management:A disaster manager's Handbook [M]. Manila, Philip pines: Asian Development Bank:1992.
[35]张永领.公共安全管理中的环境脆弱性研究概述[J].河南理工大学学报,2009,10(3)：491-495.
[36]Available online:http://www.fews.org/fewspub.html.
[37]Moss R H, Malone E L, Brenkert A L. Vulnerability to climate change:a quantitative approach. Prepared for the US Department of Energy,2002. Available online: http://www. globalchange.
[38]陈鸿起,汪妮,申毅荣等.基于欧式贴近度的模糊物元模型在水安全评价中的应用[J].西安理工大学学报.2007,23(1)：37～42.
[39]邹君,杨玉蓉,田亚平等.南方丘陵区农业水资源脆弱性概念与评价[J].自然资源学报,2007,22(2)：302-310.
[40]史培军.三论灾害研究的理论与实践[J].自然灾害学报,2008,11(3)：6.
[41]姚愉芳,贺菊煌等.中国经济增长与可持续发展——理论、模型与应用[D],167.北京： 社会科学文献出版社,1999.
[42胡健颖,冯泰.实用统计学.北京：北京大学出版社,1996.
[43]Turner Ⅱ B L, Kasperson R E, Matson P A. A framework for vulnerability analysis in sustainability science[J].PNAS,2003,100(14):8074～8079.
[44]王玉梅,郭书平.国外天然气管道事故分析[J].油气储运,2000,19(7)：5-10.
[45]杜艳,谢英,王子豪等.天然气管道事故分析[J].管道技术与设备,2009,2：16-18.
[46]马跃东.哈尔滨市管道煤气事故分析及其预防[J].工业安全与防尘,1999,5：1-4.
[47]马令申.城市埋地燃气管道危险源辨识评价研究与专家系统框架开发[D].北京：北京化工大学,2003.
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