“新区域主义”研究
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摘要
二十世纪九十年代以来,掀起了继五、六十年代后的第二次区域一体化浪潮,是谓“新区域主义”。但与此形成鲜明对照的是多边谈判的止步不前。区域主义和多边主义的关系是什么?发展中国家在“新区域主义”浪潮中应该选择怎样的RTA成员国?这是本文拟解决的两个主要问题。
通过对Ethier(1998,2001)的模型做出一些小的修改,得出以下有关区域主义和多边主义的结论:“新区域主义”是以往多边主义取得成功的结果;不同时期各国对区域主义和多边主义的态度会出现反复。同时理论分析还表明,“意大利面碗”式区域主义可能最终会促进多边主义。经验研究上,使用1996—2003年间发展中国家区域优惠关税和MFN税率的面板数据进行回归分析,发现他们之间存在正相关关系,即区域主义促进了多边主义。
发展中国家该如何选择RTA成员国?使用引力模型对1948-1999年间178个国家双边贸易的面板数据进行回归分析发现,南北型协定带来更多的贸易创造(TC)和更少的贸易转移(TD);“新区域主义”时期的RTA比“旧区域主义”时期的RTA带来更多的TC和更少的TD;同时,“自然贸易伙伴国”学说也得到验证。使用OECD国家和东盟8国1991-2000年间流入FDI的面板数据,验证知识—资本模型后发现:南北型RTA能比南南型RTA带来更多FDI。综上,发展中国家RTA成员国的合意选择是作为“自然贸易伙伴国”的发达国。因此,中国RTA成员国应优先考虑日韩两国。鉴于日本方面原因,建议尽快先和韩国签署FTA,通过“轮轴—辐条”效应迫使日本加入进来,最终与CAFTA对接,整合成东亚自由贸易区。上述过程中,由于轮轴国地位,中国收益得以最大化。
发展中国家还应处理好区域主义和多边主义的关系。在“意大利面碗”式的区域主义中,由于各国会面临高昂的管理成本和交易成本,各国不能为成为轮轴国而追求尽可能多的RTA。各国在积极开展区域主义的同时,不能抛弃多边主义。为了降低RTA的贸易转移效应,各发展中国家应实行“开放式区域主义”。
The new regionalism is here to stay and it's quite different from the "old" one, which started from 1950s and finally failed. At the same time, the multilateral trade negotiation makes little progress. Naturally, two questions are given: what's the relationship between the regionalism and multilateralism? What kind of RTA partner should the developing countries choose? These are the major topics that the thesis is trying to deal with.
As for the relationship between the regionalism and multilateralism, the conclusions are made as follows by analyzing the modified model which comes from Ethier (1998, 2001). The new regionalism may come from the past success of the multilateralism; regionalism and multilateralism may be in bandwagon in succession, which means multilateralism may be popular after the new regionalism tide. In the case of "spaghetti bowl" regionalism, it may help because of the unbundling, which rearranges the political economic forces of being against and for the rules of origins and bilateral cumulation, making countries try to harmonize the different rules of origins and favor diagonal cumulation. The empirical study about the regional preferential tariff and the MFN tariff showed, they are positively related, which means regionalism helps multilateralism.
What kind of partners should the developing countries choose in the "new regionalism" bandwagon? The analysis is based on the comparison of the South-North and South-South RTAs and the empirical study of the "Natural Trade Partner" hypothesis. Firstly, it is found that South-North RTAs can bring more trade creation and less trade diversion than South-South ones by analyzing the panel data about 178 countries in 1948-1999 using the gravity model, so does the new regionalism than the old one. Also the "Natural Trade Partner" hypothesis is testified. Secondly, the estimation of Knowledge-Capital model about OECD countries and ASEAN 8 countries in 1991-2000 demonstrates: South-North RTAs can bring more FDI than South-South ones. So the developing countries can gain more from South-North RTAs because of the technological diffusion of FDI. After all, the best choice of RTA partners during economic integration for the developing countries is the developed ones and the "Natural Trade Partner". So, China should concentrate on East Asia, forming RTAs with Japan and Korea. Considering the Japan's reluctant attitude, China should enter into a RTA with Korea as soon as possible, forcing Japan to join and finally combining with CAFTA into East Asia Free Trade Area. China's benefits are maximized because of its hub position during the process.
The developing countries should handle the relationship between the regionalism and the multilateralism properly. In the "spaghetti bowl" regionalism, the hub country gains at the expense of the spoke one. But it is no good for countries to enter into as many RTAs as possible, since the "spaghetti bowl" regionalism can bring countries costly management fee and the multinational corporations more transaction cost. So the developing countries should not abandon the multilateralism when taking active part in regional economic integration. And they should take the "open regionalism" policy, i.e. keep low MFN tariff, so that the trade diversion can be minimized, the hub countries and the spoke ones can both benefit.
通过对Ethier(1998,2001)的模型做出一些小的修改,得出以下有关区域主义和多边主义的结论:“新区域主义”是以往多边主义取得成功的结果;不同时期各国对区域主义和多边主义的态度会出现反复。同时理论分析还表明,“意大利面碗”式区域主义可能最终会促进多边主义。经验研究上,使用1996—2003年间发展中国家区域优惠关税和MFN税率的面板数据进行回归分析,发现他们之间存在正相关关系,即区域主义促进了多边主义。
发展中国家该如何选择RTA成员国?使用引力模型对1948-1999年间178个国家双边贸易的面板数据进行回归分析发现,南北型协定带来更多的贸易创造(TC)和更少的贸易转移(TD);“新区域主义”时期的RTA比“旧区域主义”时期的RTA带来更多的TC和更少的TD;同时,“自然贸易伙伴国”学说也得到验证。使用OECD国家和东盟8国1991-2000年间流入FDI的面板数据,验证知识—资本模型后发现:南北型RTA能比南南型RTA带来更多FDI。综上,发展中国家RTA成员国的合意选择是作为“自然贸易伙伴国”的发达国。因此,中国RTA成员国应优先考虑日韩两国。鉴于日本方面原因,建议尽快先和韩国签署FTA,通过“轮轴—辐条”效应迫使日本加入进来,最终与CAFTA对接,整合成东亚自由贸易区。上述过程中,由于轮轴国地位,中国收益得以最大化。
发展中国家还应处理好区域主义和多边主义的关系。在“意大利面碗”式的区域主义中,由于各国会面临高昂的管理成本和交易成本,各国不能为成为轮轴国而追求尽可能多的RTA。各国在积极开展区域主义的同时,不能抛弃多边主义。为了降低RTA的贸易转移效应,各发展中国家应实行“开放式区域主义”。
The new regionalism is here to stay and it's quite different from the "old" one, which started from 1950s and finally failed. At the same time, the multilateral trade negotiation makes little progress. Naturally, two questions are given: what's the relationship between the regionalism and multilateralism? What kind of RTA partner should the developing countries choose? These are the major topics that the thesis is trying to deal with.
As for the relationship between the regionalism and multilateralism, the conclusions are made as follows by analyzing the modified model which comes from Ethier (1998, 2001). The new regionalism may come from the past success of the multilateralism; regionalism and multilateralism may be in bandwagon in succession, which means multilateralism may be popular after the new regionalism tide. In the case of "spaghetti bowl" regionalism, it may help because of the unbundling, which rearranges the political economic forces of being against and for the rules of origins and bilateral cumulation, making countries try to harmonize the different rules of origins and favor diagonal cumulation. The empirical study about the regional preferential tariff and the MFN tariff showed, they are positively related, which means regionalism helps multilateralism.
What kind of partners should the developing countries choose in the "new regionalism" bandwagon? The analysis is based on the comparison of the South-North and South-South RTAs and the empirical study of the "Natural Trade Partner" hypothesis. Firstly, it is found that South-North RTAs can bring more trade creation and less trade diversion than South-South ones by analyzing the panel data about 178 countries in 1948-1999 using the gravity model, so does the new regionalism than the old one. Also the "Natural Trade Partner" hypothesis is testified. Secondly, the estimation of Knowledge-Capital model about OECD countries and ASEAN 8 countries in 1991-2000 demonstrates: South-North RTAs can bring more FDI than South-South ones. So the developing countries can gain more from South-North RTAs because of the technological diffusion of FDI. After all, the best choice of RTA partners during economic integration for the developing countries is the developed ones and the "Natural Trade Partner". So, China should concentrate on East Asia, forming RTAs with Japan and Korea. Considering the Japan's reluctant attitude, China should enter into a RTA with Korea as soon as possible, forcing Japan to join and finally combining with CAFTA into East Asia Free Trade Area. China's benefits are maximized because of its hub position during the process.
The developing countries should handle the relationship between the regionalism and the multilateralism properly. In the "spaghetti bowl" regionalism, the hub country gains at the expense of the spoke one. But it is no good for countries to enter into as many RTAs as possible, since the "spaghetti bowl" regionalism can bring countries costly management fee and the multinational corporations more transaction cost. So the developing countries should not abandon the multilateralism when taking active part in regional economic integration. And they should take the "open regionalism" policy, i.e. keep low MFN tariff, so that the trade diversion can be minimized, the hub countries and the spoke ones can both benefit.
引文
[1]商务部新闻发言人崇泉就中国与巴基斯坦签署自由贸易协定答记者问,商务部新闻办公室,2006.11。
[1]最新数据见WTO网站:http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm.
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[3]虽然人均GDP和人均国民收入不是一个概念,而且前者一般还大于后者,但两者相差并不是很大,故此处用各国的人均GDP来说明各国间的人均国民收入情况。
[1]正因为如此,才引发了日韩相继和东盟商谈自由贸易协定的“多米诺效应”。
[2]动机决定协定的内容、范围。中国东盟之间的争端解决机制就规定要用和平方式解决南海问题等领土争端。
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[1]最新数据见WTO网站:http://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/region_e/region_e.htm.
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[1]正因为如此,才引发了日韩相继和东盟商谈自由贸易协定的“多米诺效应”。
[2]动机决定协定的内容、范围。中国东盟之间的争端解决机制就规定要用和平方式解决南海问题等领土争端。
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