人民币升值对中国对外直接投资的影响研究
摘要
二十世纪九十年代，经济全球化和区域经济一体化的浪潮席卷全球。借助信息技术的高速发展，国际贸易、跨国投资和国际金融得到了迅猛发展，世界经济呈现出空前紧密联系的发展趋势。作为新兴市场经济体、一个发展中的大国，中国成为经济全球化的深度参与者。中国经济的持续快速增长，并呈现出与全球经济相互依赖日益紧密的趋势已成为不争的事实。中国与世界经济的密切联系主要体现在庞大的国际贸易规模和由此产生且独立运行的巨额国际资本流动两个方面。其中，国际直接投资扮演着越来越重要的角色。2002年,中央提出“走出去”战略,鼓励有比较优势的各类所有制企业开展对外直接投资,中国的对外直接投资规模开始迅速增长。到2010年底,中国对外直接投资存量达到了3172.1亿美元,是2005年底同一指标的5.5倍；而2010年中国对外直接投资净额创下688.1亿美元的历史最高值，是“十五”期间中国对外直接投资总额的2.3倍。从发展前景来看，中国在经过长期大幅度引进外国直接投资的鼎盛期之后,将逐渐迎来对外直接投资的高潮。
自2005年7月21日，中国实行新的汇率制度以来，人民币汇率上下波动的区间显著扩大，人民币升值的趋势愈发明朗：从2006年至2011年，人民币兑美元全年累计升值幅度分别为6.80%、6.88%、3.35%、0.12%、3.0%和5.11%，虽然从2008年7月以后，人民币升值的幅度明显减小，然而由于种种原因，人民币升值的压力却是长期存在的。在开放经济中，汇率作为两国货币之间的比价，决定国内外商品和生产要素的相对价格，从而决定了国际直接投资的流向和规模，成为影响国际直接投资的重要因素。然而，传统的国际投资理论很少从金融角度分析。纵观国内外学者的研究，有的从微观角度考察跨国公司向外扩张的原因、投资区位以及投资进入方式等内容（如垄断优势理论、内部化理论、国际生产折衷论和寡占反应论），有的从中观层面探索跨国公司投资带来的产业转移、产业结构升级等内容（如产品生命周期论、边际产业扩散论），还有一些宏观层面的研究，包括波特的国家竞争优势理论等，这些理论多是针对发达资本主义国家在特定历史阶段进行研究的产物，而关于汇率的变动对国际直接投资影响的研究却始终没有形成系统的结论和完整的理论体系。对于发展中国家，其特定的国际政治地位和特殊的内部政治、经济体制，决定了其汇率形成机制及其变化对于一国对外直接投资的影响与作用机制不同于发达国家，而理论上关于这部分内容的探讨却鲜见于文。
在这种特定的历史背景下，关于人民币升值和波动对中国对外直接投资影响的研究亟待展开。这些研究的结论将完善发展中国家的对外直接投资理论，推动国际直接投资理论不断向前发展。在这个过程中，如何构建一个统一的理论框架，将汇率水平的变化和汇率波动幅度对国际直接投资的影响形成系统的结论，从而形成基于汇率视角的国际直接投资理论的新学说，将成为未来一个阶段国际直接投资理论研究的新任务。人民币长期稳定的小幅度升值及短期内的阶段性贬值，对于不同类型中国对外直接投资的规模和结构将产生哪些影响？人民币升值对于中国对外直接投资影响的宏观传导机制是什么？在人民币升值过程中产生的汇率波动怎样影响中国企业的对外直接投资决策？鼓励中国企业进行广泛的对外直接投资能否缓解长期存在的人民币升值压力？在中国进一步推进“走出去”战略的大背景下，中国企业该如何正确认识人民币升值带来的优势和弊端？这些正是本文研究的具体问题。
本文综合运用规范分析、模型分析和实证分析的研究方法，主要结合国际金融学、国际投资学、西方经济学等学科的理论对于人民币升值对中国对外直接投资规模和结构的影响及作用机理进行了系统研究。全文共分为六个主要部分，第一部分是汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的一般理论基础。第一章首先介绍了汇率变动的基础理论—汇率决定与波动理论体系，接下来介绍了汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的主要理论：相对成本论、相对财富论、风险规避论和实际期权论，上述四个理论为本文的数学模型奠定了重要的思想方法基础。第二部分是汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的研究文献综述。第二章，作者按照汇率变动对国际直接投资影响研究的演进脉络，对国外研究文献的经典方法、理论流派进行了归纳和总结，并对相关理论和文献进行评述；对于国内的研究，详细回顾了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的研究文献综述，并对该领域未来的发展方向进行展望。第三部分介绍了人民币升值和中国对外直接投资的历史沿革。第三章首先介绍了人民币升值的历程，继而深入分析了人民币升值的具体原因及持久性；接着对于中国对外直接投资活动的历史、现状及其特点进行了回顾。第四部分进行了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的理论分析。在数理模型分析部分，通过构造汇率不确定条件下，跨国公司的最优投资决策模型，本文详细讨论了人民币预期升值和人民币汇率波动幅度增大对于中国对外直接投资规模和结构的影响机制；在宏观传导机制分析部分，探讨了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的利率传导机制和价格传导机制；在利弊分析部分，总结了人民币预期升值对于中国对外直接投资带来的有利和不利影响。第五部分是人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的实证分析。第五章首先用面板数据的固定效应模型分析了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资规模的影响，接下来对人民币升值对中国对外直接投资结构的影响进行了经验分析，探讨了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资产业结构、区位结构和投资主体结构的影响。第六部分为人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的规范分析。第六章探讨了人民币升值背景下，中国对外直接投资的对策建议，并分别从政府层面的对策和企业层面的对策进行了论证。
本文的模型分析表明：人民币预期升值有利于中国开展成本导向型对外直接投资，而不利于中国进行市场导向型对外直接投资；人民币预期升值对于劳动密集型对外直接投资的影响较大，而对于资本密集型对外直接投资的影响较小；人民币预期升值会影响中国对外直接投资的结构，而人民币汇率的波动幅度对于对外直接投资的结构无影响；人民币汇率波动幅度增加，则成本导向型和市场导向型对外直接投资的规模都减小。人民币升值通过利率传导机制和价格传导机制作用于中国的对外直接投资。本文的实证分析表明：人民币预期升值、人民币汇率的波动对于中国对外直接投资的规模有显著影响：人民币预期升值有利于中国对外直接投资规模的扩大，而人民币汇率波动幅度的增加使中国对外直接投资的规模下降，现阶段人民币升值对于中国对外直接投资总规模的影响不显著。中国目前的对外直接投资以成本导向型为主，而成本导向型直接投资和市场导向型直接投资的比例接近。人民币升值使得流向亚洲和非洲的对外直接投资规模逐年增加；人民币升值使采矿业和交通运输业的对外直接投资总额明显增加；人民币升值预期使国有企业对外直接投资的比例下降，有限责任公司的对外直接投资比例上升。
在上述研究的基础上，本文提出了以下对策建议：政府对于人民币汇率形成机制的调节应与“走出去”战略协调发展；合理利用人民币升值带来的低成本优势和相对财富优势，进行对外直接投资的产业选择和区位布局；实行促进对外直接投资的财政金融优惠政策；加强企业内部的核心竞争力、合理利用人民币升值带来的相对财富优势，谨慎并稳步开展中国企业的海外并购；利用人民币升值的机遇，鼓励民营企业、中小企业对外直接投资的集群发展模式等。
Since the1990’s, the wave of the Economic Globalization and the Regional EconomicIntegration have swept the world. With the rapid development of modern informationtechnology, the International Trade、the International Investment and the InternationalFinance got rapid development. World economy presents a trend of unprecedented closelylinked together. As an emerging market economy and a developing great power, China hasdeeply participated in the Economic Globalization. China's rapid economic growth and theincreasingly close interdependence of the global economy has became an indisputable fact.The close links between China and the world economy lies mainly in the two aspects of largescale of international trade and the resulting but independent operation of huge internationalcapital flows. The International Direct Investment plays a more and more important role. Thestrategy of "going out" was put forward in2002. The Chinese government encouraged allkinds of enterprises with comparative advantage to go out. Accordingly China's OutwardForeign Direct Investment began to grow rapidly. By the end of2010, China's OutwardForeign Direct Investment has stock to$317.21billion which is the same index of5.5times inthe2005. The net flow of Outward Foreign Direct Investment hit a historic high of$68.81billion in2010which is2.3times of the total amount of China's Foreign Direct Investmentduring "the tenth five years plan". From the perspective of development prospects, China willgradually usher in the climax of Outward Foreign Direct Investment after a long period ofgreat Inward Foreign Direct Investment peak.
Since July21of2005, China implements the new exchange rate system, the flexibility ofthe RMB exchange rate which fluctuates up and down is significantly enhanced and the trendof the RMB appreciation becomes more clear: From2006to2011, the annual cumulativeappreciation of RMB were6.804%,6.882%,3.349%,6.882%,3%and5.11%. Althoughfrom July2008, the size of the RMB appreciation was decreased, however, for variousreasons, the pressure on the RMB appreciation is long-standing. In open economy, as thecomparison between the two currencies, exchange rate determines the relative prices of goodsand production factors at home and abroad, thus it determines the flow and scale ofInternational Direct Investment. Exchange rate becomes the important factor affecting theInternational Direct Investment. While the traditional theory of International Investmentresearch rarely from the perspective of finance. Throughout the domestic and foreign research,some scholars investigated to multinational companies from the microscopic view of outwardexpansion reason、the investment location and the form of investment(Such as MonopolisticAdvantage Theory, Internalization Theory, theory of International Production Compromiseand Oligopolistic Reaction Theory)；Some scholars researched from the medium level of theindustrial shift effect、 upgrading of industrial structure resulting from Foreign DirectInvestment (for example: Product Life Cycle Theory, Marginal Industry DiffusionTheory),While macro research involved the Porter's National Competitive Advantage Theory.These theories mostly study situations of the developed capitalist countries in a certain historical period. While the research about the impact of exchange rate changes on theInternational Direct Investment has not formed the systematic conclusions and completetheoretical system. For developing countries, the specific international political position andspecial internal politics, economy system determine its exchange rate formation mechanismand the impact of its change on a country's Foreign Direct Investment are different fromdeveloped countries. The theoretical research on this issue in papers are few.
In this particular background, the research on the China's Foreign Direct Investmentassociated with the appreciation and volatility of the RMB is to be carried out urgently. Theconclusions of these studies will enrich the theory of Foreign Direct Investment aboutdeveloping country and promote the continuous development of the International DirectInvestment Theory. In the process, building a unified theoretical framework to form the effectof International Direct Investment associated with exchange rate change and exchange ratevolatility into a systematic conclusion will be a new task of International Direct InvestmentTheory in next stage. What effect will be on the size and structure of the different types ofChina's Outward Foreign Direct Investment associated with the long-term gradualappreciation and short-term periodic depreciation of RMB? What is the macro transmissionmechanism about the influence of the China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment associatedwith the RMB appreciation? How exchange rate fluctuations affect the Chinese enterprise'sOutward Foreign Direct Investment decisions? Can a wide range of Outward Foreign DirectInvestment alleviate the pressure of the long-term RMB appreciation? How can Chineseenterprises understand the advantages and disadvantages of RMB appreciation exactly? Allthese issues are to be deeply researched in this paper.
In this paper, we focus on the impact of RMB Appreciation on the scales and structure ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, using the integrated methods of model analysis,empirical analysis and normative analysis, mainly based on the International Finance,International Investment and Western Economics. The full text is divided into six partsmainly: The first part is general theoretical basis of the impact of exchange rate changes onInternational Direct Investment. We first introduce the basic theory of exchange ratemovements-exchange rate determination and fluctuation theory system in the first chapter.Next we introduce the main theory about impact of exchange rate changes and volatility onInternational Direct Investment including the Relative Cost Theory、Relative Wealth Theory、Risk Aversion Theory and the Theory of real options. The four theories lay the importantthinking foundation of the mathematical model in paper. The second part is the researchliterature review of the impact of exchange rate changes and volatility on the InternationalDirect Investment.In the second chapter, according to the evolution of the study about theimpact of exchange rate changes on the international direct investment, we summarize thevarious methods and theories, while criticizing the related theories and literatures. For thedomestic research,We review the work about impact of the RMB Appreciation on China’sOutward Foreign Direct Investment in detail and point out the future research direction of thisissue. In the third part, we introduce the history of RMB appreciation and China’s OutwardForeign Direct Investment. The third chapter firstly introduces the development of the RMBappreciation, then we further analyzes the specific reasons and persistence of the RMB appreciation. Next, we reviewed the history、present situation and the features of China’sOutward Foreign Direct Investment activities. The fourth part is the theoretical analysis of theimpact of RMB Appreciation on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. In themicroscopic model analysis section, by constructing the optimal investment decision model ofmultinational corporations under exchange rate uncertainty, we discussed in detail the impactof the home country expected currency appreciation on the scale and structure of a country'soutward foreign direct investment and it’s mechanism. In the analysis of macroeconomictransmission mechanism, we focus on the interest rate transmission mechanism and pricetransmission mechanism of impact of RMB Appreciation on China’s Outward Foreign DirectInvestment. At last, we analyze the beneficial effects and adverse effects of the China'sOutward Foreign Direct Investment associated with the RMB Appreciation. The fifth part isthe empirical analysis of the impact of RMB appreciation on China’s Outward Foreign DirectInvestment. Using the fixed effects model of the panel data, we analyze the impact of theRMB Appreciation on the scales of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Then Westudy the experience of the impact of RMB Appreciation on structure of China’s OutwardForeign Direct Investment focusing on the industrial structure, regional structure andinvestment main body structure. The sixth part: the research on policy and suggestions ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment under the background of RMB appreciation. Wegives some suggestions from the government level and the enterprise level in the sixthchapter.
In my paper, the model shows that the expected currency appreciation of home countryis conducive to carry out Cost-oriented Foreign Direct Investment and against to carry outMarket-oriented Foreign Direct Investment. The influence of the expected currencyappreciation of home country in labor-intensive outward direct investment is larger, while incapital-intensive outward direct investment is smaller. Expected currency appreciation ofhome country affect the structure of the country's Foreign Direct Investment, while exchangerate volatility of the home country can not influent the structure of Foreign Direct Investment.With the currency volatility of home country increasing, the scales of Cost-oriented OutwardDirect Investment and Market-oriented Outward Direct Investment are reducing. Whilecurrency appreciation of home country affect a country's outward foreign direct investment byinterest rate transmission mechanism and price transmission mechanism. In this paper,empirical research shows that the expected appreciation and fluctuations of RMB have asignificant impact on the scales of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Expectedappreciation of RMB is conducive to the scales of China’s Outward Foreign DirectInvestment. While the increase of the RMB exchange rate volatility reduces the size ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. The impact of RMB Appreciation on scales ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment is not significant now. China's current OutwardForeign Direct Investment is given priority to cost-oriented，while the proportion of Costoriented-direct investment and Market-oriented Direct investment is close. RMB appreciationmakes the scales of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment to Asia and Africa increaseyear by year. RMB appreciation makes the total amount of mining and transport in foreign direct investment increase significantly. Expected RMB appreciation makes the proportion ofstate-owned enterprises in foreign direct investment fall, the proportion of limited liabilitycompany foreign direct investment rise.
My paper puts forward the following suggestions on the basis of the research. Thegovernment should develop the RMB exchange rate system reform and the "going out"strategy coordinated. We should use the low-cost advantage and the relative-wealth advantagecoming from RMB appreciation to select the industry and location layout of the OutwardForeign Direct Investment rationally. We should implement financial preferential policies topromote foreign direct investment. The core competitiveness of Chinese enterprises need tobe strengthened. We should be prudent and steady to develop Chinese enterprises' overseasmergers and acquisitions with the relative-wealth advantage coming form the appreciation ofthe RMB rationally. We should encourage private enterprises、 small and medium-sizedenterprises to develop the outward foreign direct investment with the industrial clusterpattern under the opportunity of RMB appreciation.
自2005年7月21日，中国实行新的汇率制度以来，人民币汇率上下波动的区间显著扩大，人民币升值的趋势愈发明朗：从2006年至2011年，人民币兑美元全年累计升值幅度分别为6.80%、6.88%、3.35%、0.12%、3.0%和5.11%，虽然从2008年7月以后，人民币升值的幅度明显减小，然而由于种种原因，人民币升值的压力却是长期存在的。在开放经济中，汇率作为两国货币之间的比价，决定国内外商品和生产要素的相对价格，从而决定了国际直接投资的流向和规模，成为影响国际直接投资的重要因素。然而，传统的国际投资理论很少从金融角度分析。纵观国内外学者的研究，有的从微观角度考察跨国公司向外扩张的原因、投资区位以及投资进入方式等内容（如垄断优势理论、内部化理论、国际生产折衷论和寡占反应论），有的从中观层面探索跨国公司投资带来的产业转移、产业结构升级等内容（如产品生命周期论、边际产业扩散论），还有一些宏观层面的研究，包括波特的国家竞争优势理论等，这些理论多是针对发达资本主义国家在特定历史阶段进行研究的产物，而关于汇率的变动对国际直接投资影响的研究却始终没有形成系统的结论和完整的理论体系。对于发展中国家，其特定的国际政治地位和特殊的内部政治、经济体制，决定了其汇率形成机制及其变化对于一国对外直接投资的影响与作用机制不同于发达国家，而理论上关于这部分内容的探讨却鲜见于文。
在这种特定的历史背景下，关于人民币升值和波动对中国对外直接投资影响的研究亟待展开。这些研究的结论将完善发展中国家的对外直接投资理论，推动国际直接投资理论不断向前发展。在这个过程中，如何构建一个统一的理论框架，将汇率水平的变化和汇率波动幅度对国际直接投资的影响形成系统的结论，从而形成基于汇率视角的国际直接投资理论的新学说，将成为未来一个阶段国际直接投资理论研究的新任务。人民币长期稳定的小幅度升值及短期内的阶段性贬值，对于不同类型中国对外直接投资的规模和结构将产生哪些影响？人民币升值对于中国对外直接投资影响的宏观传导机制是什么？在人民币升值过程中产生的汇率波动怎样影响中国企业的对外直接投资决策？鼓励中国企业进行广泛的对外直接投资能否缓解长期存在的人民币升值压力？在中国进一步推进“走出去”战略的大背景下，中国企业该如何正确认识人民币升值带来的优势和弊端？这些正是本文研究的具体问题。
本文综合运用规范分析、模型分析和实证分析的研究方法，主要结合国际金融学、国际投资学、西方经济学等学科的理论对于人民币升值对中国对外直接投资规模和结构的影响及作用机理进行了系统研究。全文共分为六个主要部分，第一部分是汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的一般理论基础。第一章首先介绍了汇率变动的基础理论—汇率决定与波动理论体系，接下来介绍了汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的主要理论：相对成本论、相对财富论、风险规避论和实际期权论，上述四个理论为本文的数学模型奠定了重要的思想方法基础。第二部分是汇率变动对国际直接投资影响的研究文献综述。第二章，作者按照汇率变动对国际直接投资影响研究的演进脉络，对国外研究文献的经典方法、理论流派进行了归纳和总结，并对相关理论和文献进行评述；对于国内的研究，详细回顾了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的研究文献综述，并对该领域未来的发展方向进行展望。第三部分介绍了人民币升值和中国对外直接投资的历史沿革。第三章首先介绍了人民币升值的历程，继而深入分析了人民币升值的具体原因及持久性；接着对于中国对外直接投资活动的历史、现状及其特点进行了回顾。第四部分进行了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的理论分析。在数理模型分析部分，通过构造汇率不确定条件下，跨国公司的最优投资决策模型，本文详细讨论了人民币预期升值和人民币汇率波动幅度增大对于中国对外直接投资规模和结构的影响机制；在宏观传导机制分析部分，探讨了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的利率传导机制和价格传导机制；在利弊分析部分，总结了人民币预期升值对于中国对外直接投资带来的有利和不利影响。第五部分是人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的实证分析。第五章首先用面板数据的固定效应模型分析了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资规模的影响，接下来对人民币升值对中国对外直接投资结构的影响进行了经验分析，探讨了人民币升值对中国对外直接投资产业结构、区位结构和投资主体结构的影响。第六部分为人民币升值对中国对外直接投资影响的规范分析。第六章探讨了人民币升值背景下，中国对外直接投资的对策建议，并分别从政府层面的对策和企业层面的对策进行了论证。
本文的模型分析表明：人民币预期升值有利于中国开展成本导向型对外直接投资，而不利于中国进行市场导向型对外直接投资；人民币预期升值对于劳动密集型对外直接投资的影响较大，而对于资本密集型对外直接投资的影响较小；人民币预期升值会影响中国对外直接投资的结构，而人民币汇率的波动幅度对于对外直接投资的结构无影响；人民币汇率波动幅度增加，则成本导向型和市场导向型对外直接投资的规模都减小。人民币升值通过利率传导机制和价格传导机制作用于中国的对外直接投资。本文的实证分析表明：人民币预期升值、人民币汇率的波动对于中国对外直接投资的规模有显著影响：人民币预期升值有利于中国对外直接投资规模的扩大，而人民币汇率波动幅度的增加使中国对外直接投资的规模下降，现阶段人民币升值对于中国对外直接投资总规模的影响不显著。中国目前的对外直接投资以成本导向型为主，而成本导向型直接投资和市场导向型直接投资的比例接近。人民币升值使得流向亚洲和非洲的对外直接投资规模逐年增加；人民币升值使采矿业和交通运输业的对外直接投资总额明显增加；人民币升值预期使国有企业对外直接投资的比例下降，有限责任公司的对外直接投资比例上升。
在上述研究的基础上，本文提出了以下对策建议：政府对于人民币汇率形成机制的调节应与“走出去”战略协调发展；合理利用人民币升值带来的低成本优势和相对财富优势，进行对外直接投资的产业选择和区位布局；实行促进对外直接投资的财政金融优惠政策；加强企业内部的核心竞争力、合理利用人民币升值带来的相对财富优势，谨慎并稳步开展中国企业的海外并购；利用人民币升值的机遇，鼓励民营企业、中小企业对外直接投资的集群发展模式等。
Since the1990’s, the wave of the Economic Globalization and the Regional EconomicIntegration have swept the world. With the rapid development of modern informationtechnology, the International Trade、the International Investment and the InternationalFinance got rapid development. World economy presents a trend of unprecedented closelylinked together. As an emerging market economy and a developing great power, China hasdeeply participated in the Economic Globalization. China's rapid economic growth and theincreasingly close interdependence of the global economy has became an indisputable fact.The close links between China and the world economy lies mainly in the two aspects of largescale of international trade and the resulting but independent operation of huge internationalcapital flows. The International Direct Investment plays a more and more important role. Thestrategy of "going out" was put forward in2002. The Chinese government encouraged allkinds of enterprises with comparative advantage to go out. Accordingly China's OutwardForeign Direct Investment began to grow rapidly. By the end of2010, China's OutwardForeign Direct Investment has stock to$317.21billion which is the same index of5.5times inthe2005. The net flow of Outward Foreign Direct Investment hit a historic high of$68.81billion in2010which is2.3times of the total amount of China's Foreign Direct Investmentduring "the tenth five years plan". From the perspective of development prospects, China willgradually usher in the climax of Outward Foreign Direct Investment after a long period ofgreat Inward Foreign Direct Investment peak.
Since July21of2005, China implements the new exchange rate system, the flexibility ofthe RMB exchange rate which fluctuates up and down is significantly enhanced and the trendof the RMB appreciation becomes more clear: From2006to2011, the annual cumulativeappreciation of RMB were6.804%,6.882%,3.349%,6.882%,3%and5.11%. Althoughfrom July2008, the size of the RMB appreciation was decreased, however, for variousreasons, the pressure on the RMB appreciation is long-standing. In open economy, as thecomparison between the two currencies, exchange rate determines the relative prices of goodsand production factors at home and abroad, thus it determines the flow and scale ofInternational Direct Investment. Exchange rate becomes the important factor affecting theInternational Direct Investment. While the traditional theory of International Investmentresearch rarely from the perspective of finance. Throughout the domestic and foreign research,some scholars investigated to multinational companies from the microscopic view of outwardexpansion reason、the investment location and the form of investment(Such as MonopolisticAdvantage Theory, Internalization Theory, theory of International Production Compromiseand Oligopolistic Reaction Theory)；Some scholars researched from the medium level of theindustrial shift effect、 upgrading of industrial structure resulting from Foreign DirectInvestment (for example: Product Life Cycle Theory, Marginal Industry DiffusionTheory),While macro research involved the Porter's National Competitive Advantage Theory.These theories mostly study situations of the developed capitalist countries in a certain historical period. While the research about the impact of exchange rate changes on theInternational Direct Investment has not formed the systematic conclusions and completetheoretical system. For developing countries, the specific international political position andspecial internal politics, economy system determine its exchange rate formation mechanismand the impact of its change on a country's Foreign Direct Investment are different fromdeveloped countries. The theoretical research on this issue in papers are few.
In this particular background, the research on the China's Foreign Direct Investmentassociated with the appreciation and volatility of the RMB is to be carried out urgently. Theconclusions of these studies will enrich the theory of Foreign Direct Investment aboutdeveloping country and promote the continuous development of the International DirectInvestment Theory. In the process, building a unified theoretical framework to form the effectof International Direct Investment associated with exchange rate change and exchange ratevolatility into a systematic conclusion will be a new task of International Direct InvestmentTheory in next stage. What effect will be on the size and structure of the different types ofChina's Outward Foreign Direct Investment associated with the long-term gradualappreciation and short-term periodic depreciation of RMB? What is the macro transmissionmechanism about the influence of the China's Outward Foreign Direct Investment associatedwith the RMB appreciation? How exchange rate fluctuations affect the Chinese enterprise'sOutward Foreign Direct Investment decisions? Can a wide range of Outward Foreign DirectInvestment alleviate the pressure of the long-term RMB appreciation? How can Chineseenterprises understand the advantages and disadvantages of RMB appreciation exactly? Allthese issues are to be deeply researched in this paper.
In this paper, we focus on the impact of RMB Appreciation on the scales and structure ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment, using the integrated methods of model analysis,empirical analysis and normative analysis, mainly based on the International Finance,International Investment and Western Economics. The full text is divided into six partsmainly: The first part is general theoretical basis of the impact of exchange rate changes onInternational Direct Investment. We first introduce the basic theory of exchange ratemovements-exchange rate determination and fluctuation theory system in the first chapter.Next we introduce the main theory about impact of exchange rate changes and volatility onInternational Direct Investment including the Relative Cost Theory、Relative Wealth Theory、Risk Aversion Theory and the Theory of real options. The four theories lay the importantthinking foundation of the mathematical model in paper. The second part is the researchliterature review of the impact of exchange rate changes and volatility on the InternationalDirect Investment.In the second chapter, according to the evolution of the study about theimpact of exchange rate changes on the international direct investment, we summarize thevarious methods and theories, while criticizing the related theories and literatures. For thedomestic research,We review the work about impact of the RMB Appreciation on China’sOutward Foreign Direct Investment in detail and point out the future research direction of thisissue. In the third part, we introduce the history of RMB appreciation and China’s OutwardForeign Direct Investment. The third chapter firstly introduces the development of the RMBappreciation, then we further analyzes the specific reasons and persistence of the RMB appreciation. Next, we reviewed the history、present situation and the features of China’sOutward Foreign Direct Investment activities. The fourth part is the theoretical analysis of theimpact of RMB Appreciation on China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. In themicroscopic model analysis section, by constructing the optimal investment decision model ofmultinational corporations under exchange rate uncertainty, we discussed in detail the impactof the home country expected currency appreciation on the scale and structure of a country'soutward foreign direct investment and it’s mechanism. In the analysis of macroeconomictransmission mechanism, we focus on the interest rate transmission mechanism and pricetransmission mechanism of impact of RMB Appreciation on China’s Outward Foreign DirectInvestment. At last, we analyze the beneficial effects and adverse effects of the China'sOutward Foreign Direct Investment associated with the RMB Appreciation. The fifth part isthe empirical analysis of the impact of RMB appreciation on China’s Outward Foreign DirectInvestment. Using the fixed effects model of the panel data, we analyze the impact of theRMB Appreciation on the scales of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Then Westudy the experience of the impact of RMB Appreciation on structure of China’s OutwardForeign Direct Investment focusing on the industrial structure, regional structure andinvestment main body structure. The sixth part: the research on policy and suggestions ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment under the background of RMB appreciation. Wegives some suggestions from the government level and the enterprise level in the sixthchapter.
In my paper, the model shows that the expected currency appreciation of home countryis conducive to carry out Cost-oriented Foreign Direct Investment and against to carry outMarket-oriented Foreign Direct Investment. The influence of the expected currencyappreciation of home country in labor-intensive outward direct investment is larger, while incapital-intensive outward direct investment is smaller. Expected currency appreciation ofhome country affect the structure of the country's Foreign Direct Investment, while exchangerate volatility of the home country can not influent the structure of Foreign Direct Investment.With the currency volatility of home country increasing, the scales of Cost-oriented OutwardDirect Investment and Market-oriented Outward Direct Investment are reducing. Whilecurrency appreciation of home country affect a country's outward foreign direct investment byinterest rate transmission mechanism and price transmission mechanism. In this paper,empirical research shows that the expected appreciation and fluctuations of RMB have asignificant impact on the scales of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. Expectedappreciation of RMB is conducive to the scales of China’s Outward Foreign DirectInvestment. While the increase of the RMB exchange rate volatility reduces the size ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment. The impact of RMB Appreciation on scales ofChina’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment is not significant now. China's current OutwardForeign Direct Investment is given priority to cost-oriented，while the proportion of Costoriented-direct investment and Market-oriented Direct investment is close. RMB appreciationmakes the scales of China’s Outward Foreign Direct Investment to Asia and Africa increaseyear by year. RMB appreciation makes the total amount of mining and transport in foreign direct investment increase significantly. Expected RMB appreciation makes the proportion ofstate-owned enterprises in foreign direct investment fall, the proportion of limited liabilitycompany foreign direct investment rise.
My paper puts forward the following suggestions on the basis of the research. Thegovernment should develop the RMB exchange rate system reform and the "going out"strategy coordinated. We should use the low-cost advantage and the relative-wealth advantagecoming from RMB appreciation to select the industry and location layout of the OutwardForeign Direct Investment rationally. We should implement financial preferential policies topromote foreign direct investment. The core competitiveness of Chinese enterprises need tobe strengthened. We should be prudent and steady to develop Chinese enterprises' overseasmergers and acquisitions with the relative-wealth advantage coming form the appreciation ofthe RMB rationally. We should encourage private enterprises、 small and medium-sizedenterprises to develop the outward foreign direct investment with the industrial clusterpattern under the opportunity of RMB appreciation.
引文
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