水资源约束下的西陇海兰新经济带甘肃段城市化过程研究
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摘要
西陇海兰新经济带是国家实施西部大开发战略着力重点开发的“两带一区”区域之一,而甘肃段则是该经济带上重要的区段,更是甘肃省的“黄金线”和“生命线”。甘肃要实现经济的振兴,甘肃段城市化快速发展是必然选择。由于历史和现实的原因,未来城市化进程将不可避免地面临越来越严重的水资源短缺的限制。从水资源系统约束的角度研究甘肃段的城市化过程,不仅对形成独立的水资源与城市化关系理论体系是必要的,而且对推动甘肃段、乃至干旱区半干旱区建设资源节约型城市、环境友好型城市及区域和谐发展都具有十分重要的现实意义。
按照地理学“格局——过程——模式”的研究范式,论文开展了如下研究:
较系统提出水资源约束力基本内涵,基于水约束城市化三个方面的基础理论,探讨了七种关系对水资源约束城市化的影响,并阐明了水资源约束城市化的作用规律与机理。
基于多年份序列资料数据,分别从水资源系列要素(降雨、地表径流、地下水、水资源总量、水质)、水资源禀赋(产水系数、产水模数、农业水资源、人均水资源)城市比较、水资源开发利用(用水结构、用水效益)动态变化等方面系统评价甘肃段水资源时空变化及用水条件,并对42县区的水资源可利用量的丰富程度进行了综合判定。
评判甘肃段各城市城市化综合发展水平,金昌最高,定西最低,兰州位居第三,这由各自的城市化内涵构成差异所致。甘肃段的人口城市化方面,9个城市中提高幅度较快的城市只有嘉峪关、兰州、酒泉、金昌,反映了甘肃段城市化整体推进较慢,突出地区不多;42个县区中城市化两极分化明显,而增速高于平均的县区较多,反映了整体的发展态势较好,有一定增长潜力群的存在。与西北地区、全国相比,甘肃段的城市化发展有一定优势,但与西陇海--兰新海经济带相比,其城市化水平和增速都偏低,反映了甘肃段作为经济带发展洼地情势的继续存在。
从历史到将来较长一段时间内水资源都将影响着甘肃段城市化发展的时空秩序。甘肃段历史上百余座古城中,直接因水环境变迁而衰败或废弃的有26个;有64座城市分布在河流的两岸或附近,表现出“逐水源而居”的变化规律;有8座古城的位置迁移与水系变化有关,表现出“随河流而迁移”的变化规律。对甘肃段现代城市而言,大多城市经济发展与用水的相关性较好,如嘉峪关市、兰州市、天水市、武威市为高度相关,金昌市与酒泉市为显著相关,反映了目前阶段水资源对城市经济规模扩张有较大的制约作用。甘肃段的水系格局基本上决定了该区域的城市化空间格局,42县(区)中依然有32个县城(城区)直接坐落在河流两岸或一侧,表现出“强烈的亲水性”。大多城镇也都临河布局,沿河川展布,并且附近河流的等级规模也很大程度上决定了城镇的等级规模,二者相关性很大。
从水资源约束力的变化规律与变化机制出发,分别运用二元指标法和综合指标法,综合定量测度甘肃段水资源对城市化的约束强度、空间差异及其变化。
采用灰色关联分析方法及耦合度模型,从时空角度定量揭示研究区水资源环境与城市化相互耦合的主要影响因素及耦合协调程度。
Western Longhai-Lanxin economic zone is a key area of "Two zones and one region" in implementing western development strategy; while Gansu section is an important segement of this econimic zone as well as the "Golden line" of Gansu province. To achieve economic revitalization in Gansu, the rapid urbanization in Gansu is an inevitable choice. Due to historical and practical reasons, future urbanization process will inevitably be faced with increasingly serious water shortage. Studying the urbanization process of Gansu section from the perspective of water resource constraint is not only necessary to the form an independent theoretical system between water resources and urbanization, but also have a great practical significance to establish resources conservation and environment-friendly cities in Gansu section as well as arid and semi-arid areas.
In accordance with the "pattern-process-model" geographic research paradigm, the paper carries out the following studies:
Systematically proposes the basic connotation of water resource constraint. Based on the basic theories about water-restrained urbanization, it discusses the influence of seven relations on water-restrained urbanization and explains the laws and mechanism of urbanization restrained by water resources.
Based on multi-year sequence information and data, the paper systematically evaluates the temporal and spatial changes and water conditions of Gansu section water resources in terms of a series of water resource elements (rainfall, surface runoff, groundwater, total water resources, water quality), water resources endowment comparison in cities (production of water coefficient, modulus of producing water, agriculture water resources, per capita water resources), dynamic changes of water resource development (water structure, water-use efficiency) and conducted a comprehensive judgment of the richness of water resources can be used in 42 counties or towns.
In the judgment of the integrated urbanization development in Gansu section, Jinchang ranks No.1, Dingxi is the last one and Lanzhou ranks No.3, which is resulted from different urbanization connotation of every city. In terms of the urbanization about population in Guansu section, among the 9 cities, only Jiayuguan, Lanzhou, Jiuquan, Jinchang enjoy a faster raising rate, reflecting the overall urban progress of Gansu section is slow with few outstanding areas; there is apparent urban polarization in 42 counties and towns, while there are quite a few with the growth rate higher than the average level, reflecting a good overall development trend and having a group with a certain of growth potential. Compared with the northwest region and the whole country, the urbanization in Gansu section has certain advantages; while compared with Western Longhai-Lanxin economic zone, its urbanization level and growth rate are lower, reflecting continuous depression of development in Gansu section.
From history to a long period in future, water resource will influence the spatial and temporal order of urban development in Gansu section. Among more than 100 ancient cities in Gansu section, there are 26 cities decayed or abandoned directly due to water environment change; 64 cities located in both river sides or nearby, showing the rule of "living near the water"; and the moving of 8 cities was related to river change, showing the rule of "migration with the river". As for the modern cities in Gansu section, the economic development of most cities has a good relation with water utilization, such as the highly correlation of Jiayuguan, Lanzhou, Tianshui and Wuwei, and the significant correlation of Jinchang and Jiuquan, reflecting that the current water resources have a great restriction on urban economic scale expansion. The water pattern in Gaunsu section largely determines the spatial pattern of urbanization in the region. There are still 32 counties (built area) of the 42 counties (district) located directly across the straits or the side of the river, showing "strong hydrophilic nature". Most cities are also located near or along the river and the scales of nearby rivers largely determine city scale, so the two are highly related.
Proceed from water-restraining rule and changing mechanism, the paper respectively make a quantitative measurement of water resources constraint intensity and its spatial difference and changes by dual indicator method and integrated index method in Gansu section.
From temporal and spatial perspective, the paper quantitatively reveals the major influencing factors and coupling coordination level of two systems such as water and urbanization based on GRA (gray relational analysis) and the coupling models in Gansu section.
按照地理学“格局——过程——模式”的研究范式,论文开展了如下研究:
较系统提出水资源约束力基本内涵,基于水约束城市化三个方面的基础理论,探讨了七种关系对水资源约束城市化的影响,并阐明了水资源约束城市化的作用规律与机理。
基于多年份序列资料数据,分别从水资源系列要素(降雨、地表径流、地下水、水资源总量、水质)、水资源禀赋(产水系数、产水模数、农业水资源、人均水资源)城市比较、水资源开发利用(用水结构、用水效益)动态变化等方面系统评价甘肃段水资源时空变化及用水条件,并对42县区的水资源可利用量的丰富程度进行了综合判定。
评判甘肃段各城市城市化综合发展水平,金昌最高,定西最低,兰州位居第三,这由各自的城市化内涵构成差异所致。甘肃段的人口城市化方面,9个城市中提高幅度较快的城市只有嘉峪关、兰州、酒泉、金昌,反映了甘肃段城市化整体推进较慢,突出地区不多;42个县区中城市化两极分化明显,而增速高于平均的县区较多,反映了整体的发展态势较好,有一定增长潜力群的存在。与西北地区、全国相比,甘肃段的城市化发展有一定优势,但与西陇海--兰新海经济带相比,其城市化水平和增速都偏低,反映了甘肃段作为经济带发展洼地情势的继续存在。
从历史到将来较长一段时间内水资源都将影响着甘肃段城市化发展的时空秩序。甘肃段历史上百余座古城中,直接因水环境变迁而衰败或废弃的有26个;有64座城市分布在河流的两岸或附近,表现出“逐水源而居”的变化规律;有8座古城的位置迁移与水系变化有关,表现出“随河流而迁移”的变化规律。对甘肃段现代城市而言,大多城市经济发展与用水的相关性较好,如嘉峪关市、兰州市、天水市、武威市为高度相关,金昌市与酒泉市为显著相关,反映了目前阶段水资源对城市经济规模扩张有较大的制约作用。甘肃段的水系格局基本上决定了该区域的城市化空间格局,42县(区)中依然有32个县城(城区)直接坐落在河流两岸或一侧,表现出“强烈的亲水性”。大多城镇也都临河布局,沿河川展布,并且附近河流的等级规模也很大程度上决定了城镇的等级规模,二者相关性很大。
从水资源约束力的变化规律与变化机制出发,分别运用二元指标法和综合指标法,综合定量测度甘肃段水资源对城市化的约束强度、空间差异及其变化。
采用灰色关联分析方法及耦合度模型,从时空角度定量揭示研究区水资源环境与城市化相互耦合的主要影响因素及耦合协调程度。
Western Longhai-Lanxin economic zone is a key area of "Two zones and one region" in implementing western development strategy; while Gansu section is an important segement of this econimic zone as well as the "Golden line" of Gansu province. To achieve economic revitalization in Gansu, the rapid urbanization in Gansu is an inevitable choice. Due to historical and practical reasons, future urbanization process will inevitably be faced with increasingly serious water shortage. Studying the urbanization process of Gansu section from the perspective of water resource constraint is not only necessary to the form an independent theoretical system between water resources and urbanization, but also have a great practical significance to establish resources conservation and environment-friendly cities in Gansu section as well as arid and semi-arid areas.
In accordance with the "pattern-process-model" geographic research paradigm, the paper carries out the following studies:
Systematically proposes the basic connotation of water resource constraint. Based on the basic theories about water-restrained urbanization, it discusses the influence of seven relations on water-restrained urbanization and explains the laws and mechanism of urbanization restrained by water resources.
Based on multi-year sequence information and data, the paper systematically evaluates the temporal and spatial changes and water conditions of Gansu section water resources in terms of a series of water resource elements (rainfall, surface runoff, groundwater, total water resources, water quality), water resources endowment comparison in cities (production of water coefficient, modulus of producing water, agriculture water resources, per capita water resources), dynamic changes of water resource development (water structure, water-use efficiency) and conducted a comprehensive judgment of the richness of water resources can be used in 42 counties or towns.
In the judgment of the integrated urbanization development in Gansu section, Jinchang ranks No.1, Dingxi is the last one and Lanzhou ranks No.3, which is resulted from different urbanization connotation of every city. In terms of the urbanization about population in Guansu section, among the 9 cities, only Jiayuguan, Lanzhou, Jiuquan, Jinchang enjoy a faster raising rate, reflecting the overall urban progress of Gansu section is slow with few outstanding areas; there is apparent urban polarization in 42 counties and towns, while there are quite a few with the growth rate higher than the average level, reflecting a good overall development trend and having a group with a certain of growth potential. Compared with the northwest region and the whole country, the urbanization in Gansu section has certain advantages; while compared with Western Longhai-Lanxin economic zone, its urbanization level and growth rate are lower, reflecting continuous depression of development in Gansu section.
From history to a long period in future, water resource will influence the spatial and temporal order of urban development in Gansu section. Among more than 100 ancient cities in Gansu section, there are 26 cities decayed or abandoned directly due to water environment change; 64 cities located in both river sides or nearby, showing the rule of "living near the water"; and the moving of 8 cities was related to river change, showing the rule of "migration with the river". As for the modern cities in Gansu section, the economic development of most cities has a good relation with water utilization, such as the highly correlation of Jiayuguan, Lanzhou, Tianshui and Wuwei, and the significant correlation of Jinchang and Jiuquan, reflecting that the current water resources have a great restriction on urban economic scale expansion. The water pattern in Gaunsu section largely determines the spatial pattern of urbanization in the region. There are still 32 counties (built area) of the 42 counties (district) located directly across the straits or the side of the river, showing "strong hydrophilic nature". Most cities are also located near or along the river and the scales of nearby rivers largely determine city scale, so the two are highly related.
Proceed from water-restraining rule and changing mechanism, the paper respectively make a quantitative measurement of water resources constraint intensity and its spatial difference and changes by dual indicator method and integrated index method in Gansu section.
From temporal and spatial perspective, the paper quantitatively reveals the major influencing factors and coupling coordination level of two systems such as water and urbanization based on GRA (gray relational analysis) and the coupling models in Gansu section.
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