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不确定环境下网络化生产系统的稳定性及其治理
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摘要
随着信息技术的发展,人类社会的生产方式正在从集聚式的社会化大生产向分布式的网络化生产方式转变。与集聚式的社会化大生产不同,网络化生产处于高度不确定的社会经济环境之中。不确定环境下网络化生产系统的稳定性及其治理从微观层面讲是一个企业管理问题,从系统层面讲更是一个公共管理问题。
     网络化生产方式的分布式特点决定了这种生产系统必然要经受各种突发扰动的冲击。网络化生产系统中节点表示利益相关者,而连接边则表示利益相关者之间的关系。由于突发扰动的突发性、破坏性和扩散性等特点,使得网络化生产系统的节点容易遭受冲击,导致节点和连接边的删除,使得网络化生产系统具有极大的不稳定性,网络化生产的优势难以有效发挥。本文尝试运用图论、传播学、冲击模型、系统动力学以及治理等理论和方法,对不确定环境下网络化生产系统的稳定性及其治理进行研究。
     首先,运用图论理论对网络化生产系统进行了描述和刻画。对网络化生产方式的基本特征和运行模式进行了分析。根据网络化生产方式的特点构建了网络化生产系统,对其涉及的关键要素进行阐述,为更直观的展示网络化生产系统的结构,运用图论理论对网络化生产系统进行描述和刻画;
     其次,运用传播学理论对突发扰动进行了分析。对突发扰动进行了分类,在此基础上分析了突发扰动的来源、性质和特点。然后运用传播学理论对突发扰动的作用机理、演变规律等进行了分析;
     再次,运用系统动力学和冲击模型等理论对网络化生产系统的稳定性进行了分析。分析了系统稳定性的内涵、表现形式和特征;提出了衡量系统稳定性的结构指标和性能指标。进一步分析了突发扰动对系统产生的影响。然后运用系统动力学和冲击模型等理论构建了系统稳定性的去边比例和去点比例模型,并进行了数值模拟;
     最后,构建了系统稳定性的三级协同治理体系。根据网络化生产系统的稳定性受节点企业、企业间相互关系和整体网络环境影响的特点,提出了企业内自治、企业间协同治理和整体网络成员共治的三级协同治理模式。并相应的提出了微观治理、中观治理和宏观治理的三层治理机制。通过治理结构、治理机制和治理模式的作用,构建了不确定环境下网络化生产系统稳定性的三级协同治理体系。
     不确定环境下网络化生产系统的稳定性及其治理是对类似公共管理问题的探索性研究,本文的研究将有助于社会生产方式的发展完善,有助于提高网络化生产系统的稳定性和可靠性,有助于促进产业结构的调整和升级,有助于社会生产从传统生产向网络化生产的转型。同时,将有助于拓展公共管理问题的研究方法,促进相关理论的发展完善。
The production style of human society is changing from conglomerating social large-scale production to a distributed network production, due to the development of information technology. The network production is in a high uncertain economical environment, distinguishing with the conglomerating social large-scale production. The network production, in which the nodes indicate the stakeholders and the edges indicate the cooperation between the stakeholders, has became one of the most important production style of the society because it adapts to the development of society. The research of the stability snd its governance of network production system with uncertain environment is not only the business administration problem, but also a typical public administration problem.
     Uncertain commonly exists in production processes, since the network production lies in a dynamic, complex and uncertain environment. Due to the characteristic of sudden disturbance, the nodes of the network production system are easy shocked, in which nodes and edges are deleted, which make the network production system insatiably. We introduce the theory and method of shock model, system dynamic and communication sciences to analyze the stability and its governance of the network production system.
     Firstly, we introduce the graph theory to describe the structure of network production system. We analyze the basic characteristic and operational mode of the network production pattern. We construct a network production system according to the characteristic of the network production pattern. Furthermore, we introduce the graph theory to describe the network production system.
     Secondly, we introduce the theory of communication sciences to analyze the sudden disruption. We analyze the sources, properties and characteristic of sudden disturbance based on the classification research. Then, we tentatively analyze the mechanism and evolution of the sudden disturbance using the theory of communication sciences.
     Thirdly, we analyze the stability of the network production system using the theory of the system dynamic and shocked model. We analyze the connotation, form and characteristics of the system stability. Then, the structure indicators and the performance indicators are put forward to measure the stability of the system. Furthermore, we analyze the influence that the sudden disturbance on the system. At last, we construct the stability model of the system by introducing the theory of system dynamic and shock model, and provide a numerical simulation.
     Finally, we put forward the governance system for the stability of the system. We present the government pattern including the Nodes autonomy, cooperative governance between the nodes and shared governance among the network members, according to the characteristic that the nodes, the mutual relations and the network environment influence the stability of the system. And then we put forward the management mechanism including the management of macroscopic, the management of medium and the management of micro. At last, we construct the governance system which devotes to maintaining the stability of the system.
     The research of this paper will be helpful to promote the perfection for social production style, to enhance the stability and reliability for network production system, to promote the adjustment and ungrading for industrical structure, to speed up the transformation of society production from traditional production to network production. Meanwhile, this research may fill up the gap in relevant research area.
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