区域降雨型滑坡预报预警方法研究
|
摘要
区域降雨型滑坡是我国主要的地质灾害类型之一,具有群发性、同时性、暴发性和成灾大的特点。长期以来,国内对单体滑坡的预报预警较为关注,而对区域性的预警研究进展较缓慢。在全国积极开展地质灾害气象预报预警工作初期,开展降雨型滑坡预报预警研究,探索形成一套科学的、完整的、实用的预警预报方法,具有十分重要的实际意义。 论文选取素有“雨城”之称的四川省雅安市雨城区为研究区,以丰富的实际资料为基础,深入研究了影响滑坡发生的各种因素,全面分析了滑坡时空分布与降雨的关系,探索了确定降雨诱发区域滑坡的降雨临界值的方法,初步建立了区域降雨型滑坡预报预警体系。通过2004 年在研究区的反演模拟,整套方法接近实际,实用、可行,能够为主动减灾防灾提供科学依据。主要研究内容、方法和结论如下:
(1)论文针对基于 GIS 的统计分析模型在进行滑坡危险性评价时存在的不同数据层的合并以及数据层叠加权重确定等问题,提出了 CF 逻辑回归模型,即滑坡发生确定性系数(CF)与逻辑回归模型(Binary Logistic)相融合,并借助 SPSS 统计分析软件,很好地解决了滑坡评价中因子的选择、异质数据合并和各数据层叠加的权重问题,提高了滑坡危险性区划的精度和效率。
采用滑坡确定性系数的方法,开展研究区滑坡影响因子的敏感性分析;通过确定性系数的合并检验,确定研究区影响滑坡的关键因子;建立逻辑统计分析预测模型,采用均质网格划分,实现了滑坡危险性的空间定量评价。
研究表明,雨城区软弱相间岩组、东和西南朝向的 10°～40°的顺向坡、海拔 600～1000 m 的高程范围内的林地区最易于滑坡发生。影响滑坡危险性的关键因子为坡向、高程、岩组、斜坡类型和坡度。根据计算的单元格滑坡发生概率值,将雨城区滑坡危险性划分为 5个等级,即极不稳定、不稳定、潜在不稳定、基本稳定和稳定。
利用雨城区新滑坡点进行检验。结果显示,极不稳定区和不稳定区中包含了 86%的校验滑坡,说明评价结果与实际发生的滑坡情况基本吻合。
(2)首次将逻辑回归模型引入区域降雨型滑坡预警预报,并据此建立了降雨诱发区域滑坡临界值表达式及降雨对滑坡的影响概率。
利用逻辑回归系数,定量研究了诱发区域滑坡降雨临界值的表达雨量。通过滑坡点与降雨量及降雨过程之间的统计分析,建立了同时考虑降雨强度和降雨过程的降雨临界值表达式。
研究表明,雨城区滑坡发生与 4 天的降雨量有关,即当日降雨量(1 日降雨量)、前一天降雨量(2 日降雨量)、前两天降雨量(3 日降雨量)、前三天降雨量(4 日降雨量)。其中 1 日降雨量对滑坡发生的影响最大。降雨临界值表达雨量确定为滑坡当日降雨量和前三日的累计降雨量。雨城区降雨诱发区域滑坡临界值表达式: R_1 = -0.62R_(L3) + 84.4
Regional precipitation-induced landslide is one of the major geologic hazards in our country, which features large areas of damage, simultaneity, sudden breakout and serious consequences. For quite some time, close attentions have been paid to the forecast and early warning of single landslide in our country while the research of regional early warning proceeds quite slowly. It is essential to carry out the research into the forecast and early warning of precipitation-induced landslide and establish a scientific, complete and practical early warning and forecasting approach at the beginning of the national campaign launched for the geologic hazard weather forecast and early warning.
Yucheng District of Ya'an City, the so-called rain city of Sichuan province is chosen as the research target in the paper. Based on the rich practical data, the paper makes the in-depth research into various factors affecting the occurrence of landslide, conducts an overall analysis on the relationship between the time-space distribution of landslide and rainfall, and explores the method to determine the threshold of precipitation inducing the regional landslide. It also preliminarily establishes the precipitation-induced landslide forecast and early warning system. Based on the inverse modeling carried out in the research area in 2004, all approaches are practical, feasible and can provide scientific basis for the active disaster mitigation and prevention. The key researches, approaches and conclusions are as follows:
(1)The paper proposes the CF logic regression model to address the consolidation of different data layers during the landslide critical evaluation through GIS-based statistical analysis model and the determination of data layer superposition weight. By combining the certainty coefficient (CF) and logic regression model (Binary Logistic) and with the assistance of SPSS statistical analysis software, the factor selection, heterogeneity data consolidation and the data layer superposition weight are solved and the precision and efficiency of landslide susceptivity zoning are improved.
Sensitivity analysis on the landslide impact factor in the research area is carried out by using the landslide certainty coefficient; Key factors affecting the landslide in the research area are determined by the consolidated inspection on the certainty coefficient. Logic statistical analysis predictive model is established, and through homogeneous meshing, the space quantitative evaluation on landslide susceptivity is realized.
Research shows that landslide is mostly likely to happen at the petrofabric with interlacing softness in Yucheng district, dip slope of 10°～40°facing the east and southwest as well as the forest with elevation between 600～1000 m. Key factors affecting the landslide risk include the aspect of slope, elevation, petrofabric, type of slope and inclination. Based on the calculated cell landslide probability of occurrence, the landslide risk in Yucheng district is divided into 5 grades, namely extremely unstable, unstable, latent unstable, basically stable and stable.
Inspection is carried out on the new landslide sites of Yucheng district. The result shows that the extremely unstable area and unstable area contain 86% of the verified landslide, indicating that the evaluation result is in reasonable agreement with the actual landslide.
(2) Logic regression model is introduced into the precipitation-induced landslide early warning and forecast, based on which, the precipitation-induced regional landslide threshold expression and the probability of rainfall's impact on the landslide is established.
Quantitative investigation has been conducted on the expressed rainfall precipitation for the rainfall threshold inducing the regional landslide based on the logical regression coefficient. Expression considering both the rainfall intensity and rainfall threshold during the rainfall is established. Research indicates that the occurrence of landslide in Yucheng district is relevant to the rainfall during the 4 days, i.e.
(1)论文针对基于 GIS 的统计分析模型在进行滑坡危险性评价时存在的不同数据层的合并以及数据层叠加权重确定等问题,提出了 CF 逻辑回归模型,即滑坡发生确定性系数(CF)与逻辑回归模型(Binary Logistic)相融合,并借助 SPSS 统计分析软件,很好地解决了滑坡评价中因子的选择、异质数据合并和各数据层叠加的权重问题,提高了滑坡危险性区划的精度和效率。
采用滑坡确定性系数的方法,开展研究区滑坡影响因子的敏感性分析;通过确定性系数的合并检验,确定研究区影响滑坡的关键因子;建立逻辑统计分析预测模型,采用均质网格划分,实现了滑坡危险性的空间定量评价。
研究表明,雨城区软弱相间岩组、东和西南朝向的 10°～40°的顺向坡、海拔 600～1000 m 的高程范围内的林地区最易于滑坡发生。影响滑坡危险性的关键因子为坡向、高程、岩组、斜坡类型和坡度。根据计算的单元格滑坡发生概率值,将雨城区滑坡危险性划分为 5个等级,即极不稳定、不稳定、潜在不稳定、基本稳定和稳定。
利用雨城区新滑坡点进行检验。结果显示,极不稳定区和不稳定区中包含了 86%的校验滑坡,说明评价结果与实际发生的滑坡情况基本吻合。
(2)首次将逻辑回归模型引入区域降雨型滑坡预警预报,并据此建立了降雨诱发区域滑坡临界值表达式及降雨对滑坡的影响概率。
利用逻辑回归系数,定量研究了诱发区域滑坡降雨临界值的表达雨量。通过滑坡点与降雨量及降雨过程之间的统计分析,建立了同时考虑降雨强度和降雨过程的降雨临界值表达式。
研究表明,雨城区滑坡发生与 4 天的降雨量有关,即当日降雨量(1 日降雨量)、前一天降雨量(2 日降雨量)、前两天降雨量(3 日降雨量)、前三天降雨量(4 日降雨量)。其中 1 日降雨量对滑坡发生的影响最大。降雨临界值表达雨量确定为滑坡当日降雨量和前三日的累计降雨量。雨城区降雨诱发区域滑坡临界值表达式: R_1 = -0.62R_(L3) + 84.4
Regional precipitation-induced landslide is one of the major geologic hazards in our country, which features large areas of damage, simultaneity, sudden breakout and serious consequences. For quite some time, close attentions have been paid to the forecast and early warning of single landslide in our country while the research of regional early warning proceeds quite slowly. It is essential to carry out the research into the forecast and early warning of precipitation-induced landslide and establish a scientific, complete and practical early warning and forecasting approach at the beginning of the national campaign launched for the geologic hazard weather forecast and early warning.
Yucheng District of Ya'an City, the so-called rain city of Sichuan province is chosen as the research target in the paper. Based on the rich practical data, the paper makes the in-depth research into various factors affecting the occurrence of landslide, conducts an overall analysis on the relationship between the time-space distribution of landslide and rainfall, and explores the method to determine the threshold of precipitation inducing the regional landslide. It also preliminarily establishes the precipitation-induced landslide forecast and early warning system. Based on the inverse modeling carried out in the research area in 2004, all approaches are practical, feasible and can provide scientific basis for the active disaster mitigation and prevention. The key researches, approaches and conclusions are as follows:
(1)The paper proposes the CF logic regression model to address the consolidation of different data layers during the landslide critical evaluation through GIS-based statistical analysis model and the determination of data layer superposition weight. By combining the certainty coefficient (CF) and logic regression model (Binary Logistic) and with the assistance of SPSS statistical analysis software, the factor selection, heterogeneity data consolidation and the data layer superposition weight are solved and the precision and efficiency of landslide susceptivity zoning are improved.
Sensitivity analysis on the landslide impact factor in the research area is carried out by using the landslide certainty coefficient; Key factors affecting the landslide in the research area are determined by the consolidated inspection on the certainty coefficient. Logic statistical analysis predictive model is established, and through homogeneous meshing, the space quantitative evaluation on landslide susceptivity is realized.
Research shows that landslide is mostly likely to happen at the petrofabric with interlacing softness in Yucheng district, dip slope of 10°～40°facing the east and southwest as well as the forest with elevation between 600～1000 m. Key factors affecting the landslide risk include the aspect of slope, elevation, petrofabric, type of slope and inclination. Based on the calculated cell landslide probability of occurrence, the landslide risk in Yucheng district is divided into 5 grades, namely extremely unstable, unstable, latent unstable, basically stable and stable.
Inspection is carried out on the new landslide sites of Yucheng district. The result shows that the extremely unstable area and unstable area contain 86% of the verified landslide, indicating that the evaluation result is in reasonable agreement with the actual landslide.
(2) Logic regression model is introduced into the precipitation-induced landslide early warning and forecast, based on which, the precipitation-induced regional landslide threshold expression and the probability of rainfall's impact on the landslide is established.
Quantitative investigation has been conducted on the expressed rainfall precipitation for the rainfall threshold inducing the regional landslide based on the logical regression coefficient. Expression considering both the rainfall intensity and rainfall threshold during the rainfall is established. Research indicates that the occurrence of landslide in Yucheng district is relevant to the rainfall during the 4 days, i.e.
引文
[1] 中华人民共和国国土资源部,中国地质环境公报,2001
[2] 中华人民共和国国土资源部,中国地质环境公报,2002
[3] 中华人民共和国国土资源部,中国地质环境公报,2003
[4] 李媛,董颖,杨旭东,孟晖,等. 542个县市地质灾害调查综合研究报告[R].北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2004
[5] 李媛,陈君,杨旭东,等. 542个县市地质灾害调查综合研究图集[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院, 2004
[6] 李媛, 孟晖, 等. 中国地质灾害类型及其特征----基于全国县市地质灾害调查成果分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2004, 15(2):29-34
[7] 刘传正, 唐灿, 等. 全国地质灾害气象预报预警实施方案[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2003
[8] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)宝兴幅H-48-XIII,1976
[9] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)荥经幅H-48-XIX,1974
[10] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)邛崃幅H-48-XIV,1976
[11] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)峨眉幅H-48-XX,1971
[12] 四川省地质局、地震局,四川省构造体系与地震震中分布规律图及说明书(1:100万),1980
[13] 成都地质学院,四川省挽近构造形迹图(1:65万),1976
[14] 国家测绘局,1:5万数字高程模型(H48E011004,H48E011005,H48E012004,H48E012005,H48E013004,H48E013005,H48E014004,H48E014005),2000
[15] 四川省雅安地区地质环境监测站,雅安地区地质灾害调查研究报告(1:50 万),1995
[16] 四川地勘局九O九水文地质工程地质大队.四川省雅安市雨城区地质灾害调查与区划报告[R]. 江油:四川地勘局九O九水文地质工程地质大队,2002.
[17] Nilsen T. H., Brabb E. E., Slope stability studies in the San Francisco Bay region, California, Geol. Soc. America, Reviews in Eng. Geol., 1977, pp235-243
[18] Sheko A.E., Theoretical principles of regional temporary prediction of landslide activation, Bulletin of IAEG, Prague, No.16, 1997, pp69-72
[19] Carrara A. , Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation, Math. Geol., 1983, 15:403-426
[20] Brabb E. E., Innovation approaches to landslide hazard and risk mapping, Proc. of 4th ISL, Toronto, 1984, pp307-323
[21] Brand E. W., Landslide risk assessment in Hong Kong, Landslide, 1988, pp1059-1074
[22] Cross M., Landslide susceptibility mapping using two matrix assessment approach, Geohazards in engineering geology, edited by J.G. Maund and M. Eddleston, Geological society engineering geology special publication No. 15, London, 1998, pp247-264
[23] Lumb P. Slope failures in Hong Kong[J]. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology, 1975, 8(1):31-65
[24] Ruxton B P. Slope problems in Hong Kong, a geological appraisal[J]. Hong Kong Engineer, 1980, 8(6):31-39
[25] Fourie A B. Predicting rainfall-induced slope instability[J]. Geotechnical Engineering,Institution of Civil Engineers,1996,119:211-218
[26] Collison A J C,Anderson M G. Using a combined slope hydrology-stability model to identify suitable conditions for landslide prevention by vegetation in the humid tropics[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,1996,21:737-747
[27] Evans N C. Natural terrain landslide study:preliminary assessment of the influence of rainfall on natural terrain landslide initiation[R]. Hong Kong:Geotechnical Engineering Office,1997,28～29
[28] Mark R K,Ellen S D. Statistical and simulation models for mapping debris flow hazard[A]. In:Carrara A,Guzetti F ed. Geographical Information System in Assessing Natural Hazard[C]. Amsterdam: Academic Publishers,1995,93-106
[29] Brabb E. Innovation approach to landslide hazard and risk mappin
[A]. In:Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on Landslide[C]. Toronto:Hazards Center Publication,1984,1:307-323
[30] 舒斯特R.T,等.滑坡的分析与防治[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1987.48.
[31] Kienholz. H.et.al. Leg ends modulable pour la cartographie des phenomenes[M], 1995.12-16
[32] Takashi. Japan-China joint symposium on slope stability and their control[Z]. 1995.114-118.
[33] Ragozin A. L. Landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment[Z]. Landslides in research, theory and practice, 1257-1262, Thomas Telford, London, 2000
[34] Michael-leiba M. Quantitative landslides risk assessment of Cairns Australia[Z].
[35] Aleotti P., Baldelli P., Polloni G., et al. Hydrogeological risk assessment of the Po river basin(Italy)[Z]. Landslides in research, theory and practice, 13-18, Thomas Telford, London, 2000
[36] 乔建平.不稳定斜坡危险度的判别[J].山地研究,1991,9(2):117～122.
[37] 乔建平,滑坡危险度区划方法研究[J].国土经济,1995,(专刊):35～45.
[38] 乔建平,等.长江上游滑坡危险度区划[J].水土保持学报,1994,8(1):39～44.
[39] 张业成,等.中国地质灾害危险性分析与灾变区划[J].地质灾害与环境保护,1995,6(3): 1～13.
[40] Anbal.K. 山区滑坡灾害的评价及分带制图[J].铁道勘测与设计,1993,(1):62～70.
[41] 钟荫乾.黄腊石滑坡综合信息预报方法研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1995, 6(4): 68～74.
[42] 徐刚.灾害地貌危险度综合评价研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(1):8～14.
[43] 倪万魁.钢川市滑坡危险性综合评价[J].西安地质学院学报,1996,18(3):63～68.
[44] 张永治,等.山地填土边坡场内地表危险参水量的估算[J].西南公路,1994,(3):31～36.
[45] 殷坤龙,朱良峰. 滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):279-284
[46] 殷坤龙,等. 滑坡灾害区划系统研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2000, 11(4):28-32
[47] 殷坤龙,等. 地质灾害风险区划与综合防治对策[J]. 安全与环境工程, 2003, 10(1):32-35
[48] 殷坤龙. 滑坡灾害预测预报分类[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2003, 14(4):12-18
[49] 吴益平, 等. 物元模型在滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用[J]. 地质科技情报, 2003, 22(4): 96-99
[50] 邢秋菊等.基于 GIS 的滑坡危险性逻辑回归评价研究.[J].地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(3):49-51
[51] 王亚强,王兰民,等. GIS 支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究[J]. 地理科学, 2004,24(2): 170-176
[52] Brand, E. W.; Premchitt, J.; Phillipson, H. B. 1984. Relationship between rainfall and landslide in HongKong. Proceeding 4th International Symposium Landslides, Toronto, 17 September 1984, 1:377-384
[53] David K. Keefer et al, 1987. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall. Science,Vol.238: 921-925
[54] Au, S.W.C. 1998. Rain-induced slop instability in Hong Kong. Engineering Geology (1998) Vol.51(1):1-36
[55] Ayalew, L. 1999. The effect of seasonal rainfall on landslides in the highland of Ethiopia. Bull Eng Geol Env (1999)58:9-19
[56] Polemio, M.; Sdao, F. 1999. The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy). Engineering Geology (1999) Vol.53(3-4):297-309
[57] Fuchu, D.; Lee, C.F.; Sijing, W. 1999.Analysis of rainstorm-induced slide-debris flows on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Engineering Geology (1999) Vol.51(4):279-290
[58] Gland, T. 2000. Modeling landslide triggering rainfall thresholds at a range of complexities. Proceeding 8th International Symposium Landslides, Cardiff, 26 June 2000, 2:633-640
[59] Lin, M.L.; Jeng, F.S. 2000. Characteristics of hazards induced by extremely heavy rainfall in Central Taiwan. Engineering Geology (2000) Vol.58(2):191-207
[60] Dai, F. C.; Lee, C. F. 2001.Frequency-volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. Engineering Geology (2001) Vol.59(3-4):253-266
[61] K.T.Chau ,Y.L.Sze,M.K.Fung,W.Y.Wong,E.L.Fong,L.C.P.Chan. Landslide hazard analysis for HongKongusing landslide inventory and GIS [J] Computers &Geosciences 2004,30(4): 429 –443
[62] Murat Ercanogluand ,Candan Gokceoglu. Use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area (West Black Sea Region, Turkey) [J]. Engineering Geology, 2004,75(3-4): 215-354
[63] Pietro Aleotti. A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures [J] Engineering Geology, 2004,73(3-4): 247-265
[64] Tenalem Ayenew,Giulio Barbieri。Inventory of landslides and susceptibility mapping in the Dessie area, northern Ethiopia [J] Engineering Geology, 2005,77(1-2): 1-15
[65] Francesco Fiorillo and Raymond C. Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy) [J] Engineering Geology, 2004,75(3-4): 263-289
[66] Iiritano, G., Versace, P.,Sirangelo, B. Real time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall. [J] Environmental Geology ,1998,35( 2–3):175–183
[67] Keefer, D.K., Wilson, R.C., Mark, R.K., Brabb, E.E., Brown, W.M., Ellen, S.D., Harp, E.L., Wieczorek, G.F., Alger, C.S. and Zatkin, R.S., 1987. Real time landslide warning system during heavy rainfall. Science 238, pp. 921–925
[68] Glade, T., Crozier, M. and Smith, P., 2000. Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using empirical "antecedent daily rainfall model". Pure and Applied Geophysics 157, pp. 1059–1079
[69] Glade, T., 2000. Modelling landslide-triggering rainfalls in different regions of New Zealand—the soil water status model. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie N.E. 122, pp. 63–84.
[70] Glade, T., 2000. Modelling landslide triggering rainfall thresholds at a range of complexities. In: Proc of the VIII International Symposium on Landslides, Cardiff vol. 2, Telford, London, pp. 633–640.
[71] Wilson, R.C. and Wieczorek, G.F., 1995. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flow at La Honda, California. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience 1 1, pp. 11–27.
[72] 张先发,等. 长江上游暴雨与滑坡崩塌的关系[J]. 地理,1995,8(3).
[73] 杜榕桓,等. 长江三峡库区滑坡与泥石流研究[M]. 四川科学技术出版社,1991.
[74] 晏同珍,等. 崩塌滑坡灾害群发性初探[J]. 灾害学,1987,2(3).
[75] 李晓. 重庆地区的强降雨过程与地质灾害的相关分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(3).
[76] 钟荫乾. 滑坡与降雨关系及其预报[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(4).
[77] 谭炳炎,等. 暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J]. 铁道学报,1992,14(3).
[78] 谭炳炎,等. 山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J]. 自然灾害学报,1995,4(2).
[79] 吴积善,等. 泥石流及其综合治理[M]. 科学出版社,1993.
[80] 符文熹. 川西泥石流分布特征与防治原则研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998 , 9(1).
[81] 谭万沛,等. 四川省泥石流预报的区域临界雨量指标研究[J ]. 灾害学,1992,7(2).
[82] 唐灿, 李铁锋,等. 地质灾害气象预报预警技术要求[R]. 北京:中国地质环境监测院,2005
[83] 刘传正,李云贵,等. 四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):20-30
[84] 周平根, 侯圣山, 等. 四川雅安地质灾害预警示范区建设阶段报告(2)[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2005.
[85] 乔建平,赵宇. 滑坡危险度区划研究综述[J]. 山地学报, 2001,19(2): 157-160
[86] 秦四清,张倬元,等. 滑坡非线性时间预报理论[A]. 工程地质研究进展[C]. 成都:西南交通大学出版社,1993,171-181
[87] 周萃英, 晏同珍. 滑坡灾害系统非线性动力学研究[J]. 长春地质学院学报, 1995, 25(3): 311-316
[88] Carrara A., Guzzetti F. Use of GIS technology in the prediction and Monitoring of landslide hazard[J]. Natural Hazards, 1999,20:117-135
[89] 张桂荣、殷坤龙,等. 基于 GIS 的陕西省旬阳地区滑坡灾害危险性区划. 中国地质灾害防治学报,2003,14(4):39-43
[90] 王亚强、王兰民、张小曳. GIS支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究. 地理科学,2004,24(2):170-176
[91] Newmark N M. Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments [J].Geotechnique, 1965, 15(2):139-160.
[92] Taylor D W. Fundamentals of Soil Mechanice [M].New York:Wiley,1948.
[93] Koppula S D.Pseudo-static analysis of clay slopes subjected toearthquakes [J]. Geotechnique, 1984, 34(1), 71-79
[94] Wilson R, Eieczorek G, Harp E. Development of criteria for regional mapping of seismic slope stability [J]. Gelolgical Society of America, Abstracts with Programs,1979,11(3):37-38
[95] Jibson R W,E L Harp, J A Michael. A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps [J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):271-289.
[96] Luzi L, F Pergalani. Applications of statistical and GIS techniques to slope instability zonation (1:50000 Fabriano geological map sheet) [J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 1996, 15(2):83-94
[97] Refice A, D Capolongo. Probabilistic modeling of uncertainties in earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment [J]. Computers & Geosciences,2002,28(6):735-749
[98] Miles S B, C L Ho. Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Ne wmark’s method and stochastic ground motion simulation [J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 1999, 18(4):305-323.
[99] Technical Committee for Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering, ISSMGE. Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards[M]. Tokyo: The Japanese Geotechnical Society, 1999.
[100] Gupta R P,B C Joshi. Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach-a case study from the Ramganaga Catchment, Himalayas [J].Engineering Geology, 1990, 28(2):119-131
[101] Dai F C, C F Lee. Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong [J]. Geomorphology, 2002,48(4):349-364.
[102] Clerici A, S Perego, C Tellini.A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method [J].Geomorphology, 2002, 48(4):349-364.
[103] Baeza C., Corominas J. Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of statistical techniques[A]. In: Proc Ⅶ Int. Symp. on landslide, Trondheim[C],1996,1:153-158
[104] 文宝萍. 滑坡预测预报研究现状与发展趋势[J].地学前缘,1996,3(1-2):86-92
[105] 张梁,张业成,等. 地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M]. 北京: 地质出版社, 1998
[106] Fell R. Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J]. Journal of Canadian Geotechnique, 1994, 31: 261-272
[107] 戴福初,李军. 地理信息系统在滑坡灾害研究中的应用[J]. 地质科技情报, 2000,19(1):91-96
[108] Refice A, D Capolongo. Probabilistic modeling of uncertainties in earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment [J]. Computers & Geosciences,2002,28(6):735-749
[109] Miles S B, C L Ho. Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Ne wmark’s method and stochastic ground motion simulation [J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 1999, 18(4):305-323.
[110] 兰恒星,伍法权,王思敬. 基于GIS的滑坡CF多元回归模型及其应用[J]. 山地学报,2002,20(6):732-737
[111] Heckeman. Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN’s certainty factors[A]. In:L.N.Kanal and J.F.Lemmer (eds). Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence[C]. New York, Elsevier, 1986.298-311
[112] 兰恒星,伍法权,等. 基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2002, 21(10):1500-1506
[113] 孙广忠,姚宝魁.中国滑坡地质灾害及其研究[A].中国岩石力学与工程学会编,中国典型滑坡[C].北京:科学出版社,1988 1-11
[114] 刘传正,李云贵,等. 四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4): 20-32
[115] 刘传正,李云贵,等. 地质灾害典型区监测预警示范区建设研究报告[R].
[116] 周平根, 侯圣山, 等. 四川雅安地质灾害预警示范区建设阶段报告(2)[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2005.
[117] 兰恒星,王苓涓,周成虎. 云南小江流域滑坡关键影响因子研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003, 14(1): 100-106
[118] Wieczorek, G.F., Morgan, B.A. and Campbell, R.H., 2000. Debris flow hazards in the Blue Ridge of Central Virginia[J]. Environmetal and Engineering Geoscience 1989 VI 1, pp. 3–23.
[119] Campbell, R.H. Debris flow originating from soil slip during rainstorm in southern California[J]. Enginerring Geologist 1975,7, pp. 339–349.
[120] Lumb, P., 1975. Slope failure in Hong Kong. Quarterly Journal Engineeering Geologist 8, pp. 31–65.
[121] Brand, E.W., Premchitt, J. and Phillipson, H.B., 1984. Relationship between rainfall and landslides in Hong Kong. In: Proc. of the IV International Symposium on Landslides, Toronto vol. 1, pp. 377–384.
[122] Cancelli, A. and Nova, R., 1985. Landslides in soil debris cover triggered by rainstorm in Valtellina (Central Alps, Italy). In: Proc. of the IV International Conference on Landslides, Tokyo vol. 1, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp. 267–272.
[123] Cannon, S.H. and Ellen, S.D., 1985. Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches, San Francisco Bay region, California. California Geology 38 12, pp. 267–272
[124] Wieczorek, G.F., 1987. Effect of rainfall intensity and duration on debris flows in central Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In: Costa and Wieczorek, Editors, 1987. Debris Flows/Avalanches: Processes, Recognition and MitigationReviews in Engineering Geology vol. 7, Geological Society of America, pp. 23–104.
[125] Guzzetti, F., Crosta, G., Marchetti, M. and Reichenbach, P., 1992. Debris flows triggered by the July, 17–19, 1987 storm in the Valtellina Area (Northern Italy). In: Proc. of the VII International Congress Interpraevent 1992, Bern vol. 2, pp. 193–204.
[126] Polloni, G., Ceriani, M., Lauzi, S., Padovan, N. and Crosta, G., 1992. Rainfall and soil slipping events in Valtellina. Proc. of the VI International Symposium on Landslides. Christchurch 1, pp. 183–188.
[127] Morgan, B.A., Wieczorek, G.F., Campbell, R.H. and Gori, P.L., 1997. Debris flow hazards in areas affected by the June 27, 1995 storm in Madison County, Virginia. USGS Open File Report, pp. 97–438.
[128] Crosta, G., 1998. Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environmental Geology 35 2–3, pp. 131–145.
[129] Corominas, J. and Moya, J., 1999. Reconstructing recent landslide activity in relation to rainfall in the Llobregat river basin, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain. Geomorphology 30, pp. 79–93.
[130] Flentje, P., Chowdhury, R.N. and Tobin, P., 2000. Management of landslides triggered by a major storm event in Wollongong, Australia. In: Proc. of the II International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation, Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, Taipei, pp. 479–487.
[131] Paronuzzi, P., Del Fabbro, M. and Maddaleni, P., 2002. Frane superficiali tipo slide debris flow causate dal nubifragio del 21/22 giugno 1996 nella Val Chiarsò (Alpi Carniche, Friuli). Memorie della Societa Geologica Italiana 57, pp. 443–452.
[132] Sandersen, F., Bakkeoi, S., Hestnes, E. and Lied, K., 1996. The influence of meteorological factors on the initiation of debris flows, rockfalls, rockslides and rockmass stability. In: Proc. of the VII International Symposium on Landslides, Trondheim vol. 1, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp. 97–114.
[133] Bonnard, Ch. and Noverraz, F., 2001. Influence of climate change on large landslides: assessment of long term movements and trends. In: Proc. of the International Conference on Landslides: causes impact and countermeasures, Gluckauf, Essen, Davos, pp. 121–138.
[134] Brand, E. W.; Premchitt, J.; Phillipson, H. B. Relationship between rainfall and landslide in HongKong. Proceeding 4th International Symposium Landslides, Toronto, 17 September 1984, 1:377-384
[135] Alan F. Chleborad,Preliminary Method for Anticipating the Occurrence of Precipitation-Induced Landslides in Seattle, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-469 2000
[136] Alan F. Chleborad,Preliminary Evaluation of a Precipitation Threshold for Anticipating the Occurrence of Landslides in the Seattle, Washington Area. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 03-463 2003
[137] LumbP.GeneralnaturalofthesoilofHongKong[A].In:Anon.SymposiumonHongkongSoils[C]. 1962.19-31.
[138] Brand E. W. Landslide risk assessmention in Hongkong [A].In:BonnardC.Proc.5th Sym.on Landslides[C]. 1988.1059-1074.
[139] Wieczorek G.F., and Sarmiento, J. Significance of storm intensity-duration for triggering of debris flows near La Honda, California: Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, 1983,,v. 15, no. 5, p. 289.
[140] Wieczorek, G.F., Lips, E.W., and Ellen, S.D., Debris flows and hyperconcentrated floods along the Wasatch Front, Utah, 1983 and 1984: Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologists, V. 26, No. 2, p. 191-208.
[141] Reichenbach, P., Cardinali, M., De Vita, P. and Guzzetti, F., 1998. Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy). Environmental Geology 35 2–3, pp. 146–159
[142] 谢剑明,刘礼领, 等. 浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨量阀值研究[J]. 地质科技情报, 2003, 22(4): 101-105
[143] Wieczork, G.F. Evaulating Danger Landslide Caralogue Map[J]. Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologists, 1984, 1(1): 337-342
[144] Ellen S.D. et, al. Landslide, Floods and Natine Effect of the Storm of January 1982, in the San Francisco Bay Ragion[Z]. California, V.S.S, 1988.3-5
[145] 卢全中等.地质灾风险评估(价)研究综述[J].灾害学,2003,18(4):59-63
[146] 向喜琼,黄润秋,基于 GIS 的人工神经网络模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J]。中国地质灾害与防治学报,2000,11(3):24-27
[147] 王济川、郭志刚,Logistic 回归模型方法与应用[M],北京高等到教育出版社,2001
[148] 周翠英等.基于 GIS 技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):911-914
[149] 孙怀军、张永波,滑坡预测预报的现状和发展趋势,太原理工大学学报,2001.11,32(6),636-639
[150] 许强、黄润秋,李秀珍,滑坡时间预测预报研究进展,地球科学与进展,200.4,19(3),478-483
[151] 张梁、张建军,地质灾害风险区划理论与方法[J],地质灾害与环境保护,2000,11(4):323-328
[152] 周萃英、晏同珍、汤连生,滑坡灾害系统非线性动力学研究,长春地质学院学报,1995.7,25(3),311-316
[153] 陈永波等.基于地理信息系统及人工智能技术的滑坡危险度区划探讨[J].水土保持学报,2003,17(5):169-171
[154] 张春山,吴满路,张业成,地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].自然灾害学报,2002,12(1):96-102
[155] 柳源,中国地质灾害(以崩、滑、流为主)危险性分析与区划[J],中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):95-99
[156] 谢小娟,地质环境条件及诱发因素在地质灾害易发分区中定量化评价初探[J],探矿工程,2003:93-95
[157] 阮沈勇、黄润秋,基于 GIS 的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J],成都理工学院学报,2001,28(1):89-92
[158] 陈正洪等.湖北省降雨型滑坡泥石流及其降雨因子的时空分布、相关性浅析[J].岩土力学,1995,16 (3):62-68
[159] 许强、黄润秋,非线性科学理论在地质灾害评价预测中的应用——地质灾害系统分析原理[J],山地学报,2000,18(3):272-277
[160] 王建锋,滑坡发生时间预报分析,中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003.6,14(2),1-18
[161] 文海家、张永兴、柳源,滑坡预报国内外研究动态及发展趋势,中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004.3,15(1),1-4
[162] 杜榕恒等.长江三峡库区滑坡与泥石流研究[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1991,33-36
[163] 单新建等.基于 GIS 的区域滑坡危险性预测方法与初步应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1 507-1 514
[164] 谢守益等.长江三峡库区典型滑坡降雨诱发的概率分析[J].工程地质学报,1995,3 (2):60-69
[165] 罗菊英.巴东县城关及其周边地区滑坡与降水的关系初探[J].湖北气象,2001,(4):10-12
[166] 汪明武.基于神经网络的泥石流危险度区划[J].水文地质工程地质,2000(2):18-19
[167] 白永峰等.成昆铁路暴雨泥石流灾害预测模型的研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(4):74-80
[168] 李思平等.基于非线性理论的边坡稳定性评价模型[J]水文地质工程地质,2002,第 2期:11-14
[169] 袁曾任.人工神经元网络及其应用[M]北京:清华大学出版社,1999
[170] 崔鹏,刘世建,谭万沛.中国泥石流监测预报研究现状与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):10-15
[171] 龙辉等.边坡演化的非线性动力学与突变分析[J]工程地质学报,2001,9(3):331-334
[172] 郑乾墙.滑坡危险性的模糊综合评判[J]江西地质,1999,13(4):299-303
[173] 崔中兴等.神经网络在滑坡预报中的应用[J]水土保持通报,1995,15(5)
[174] 文科军等.暴雨泥石流实时预报的研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1998,20(6):59-64
[175] 周金星等.山洪泥石流灾害预报预警技术述评[J].山地学报,2001,19(6):527-532
[176] 唐璐等.混沌和神经网络结合的滑坡预测方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2003,22(12):1984-1987
[177] 许强等.斜坡稳定性空间预测的神经网络方法[J]中国地质灾害与防治学报,1994,5(2):17-2
[178] 李东山等到.三峡库区滑坡综合预报系统的设计与实现[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(2):24-27
[179] 唐红梅等.重庆万州区地质灾害危险性分区及评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(3):1-5
[180] 吴文德等.边坡稳定的灾变分析[J]化工矿山技术,1994,23(2):5-6
[181] 周国兵等.重庆市山体滑坡气象条件等级预报业务系统[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(1):122-124
[182] 谭炳炎,段爱英.山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J] .自然灾害学报,1995(42):43-52.[29]
[183] 戴作鹏等.简述滑坡的观测方法和滑坡预报[J]四川测绘,1999,22(3):140-141
[184] 沈良峰等基于指数平滑技术的边坡位移预测方法[J].建筑科学,2004,20(4):43-46
[185] 许强等.地质灾害发生时间和空间的预测预报[J].山地学报,2000,18(增刊)
[186] 柳源.滑坡临界暴雨精度[J].水文地质工程地质,1998,25(3):43-45
[187] 吴益平等.物元模型在滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用[J].地质科技情报,2003,22(4):96-99
[188] Greenway D.R. et al, 1984. Influence of vegetation on slope stability in Hong Kong. Proceeding 4th International Symposium Landslides, Toronto, 17 September 1984, 1: 399-404
[189] 郁淑华.四川盆地泥石流、滑坡的时空分布特征及其气象成因分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(增刊):83-89
[190] 刘少军等.利用 A r c G I S 中 VBA 开发滑坡阶段综合预报功能[J].桂林工学院学报,2004,24(3):315-318
[191] 张玲等.基于 GIS 的滑坡临界降雨指标的研究[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2003,29(5):493-498
[192] 朱良峰等.基于 GIS 的中国滑坡灾害风险分析[J].岩土力学,2003,24(增刊):221-224
[193] 单九生等.诱发江西滑坡的降水特征分析[J].气象,200330(1):13-16
[194] 韦方强等.泥石流危险性动量分区方法与应用[J].科学通报,2003,48(3):298-301
[195] Carrara A,Guzzetti F.Use of GIS technology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard. Natural Hazards,1999,20(2):117-135
[196] Pike R J.Quantifying landslide-terrain types from digital elevation models. Mathematical Geology, 1988,20(5):491-511
[197] Chung C.F.Fabbri A.G. Multivariate regression analysis for landslide hazard zonation. Ln:GIS in Assessing Natural Hazards. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1995.107-133
[198] Heckerman D. Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN’s certainty factors: Kanal L N, Lemmer J F Uncertainty in Artifical Intelligence. New York: Elsevier, 1986.298～311
[199] Chung C F, Fabbri A G, Probabilitic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. photogrammetric engineering & remote Sensing, 1999,65(12):1388-1399
[200] Montgomery D R, Dietrich W E.A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resouces Research, 1994,30(4) :1153-1171
[201] Dietrich E W, Reises R, Hsu ML. A process-based model for colluvial soil depth and shallow landsliding using digital elevation data. Hydrological Processes, 1995.9:383-400
[202] Wu W, sidle R C. A distributed slope stability model for steep forested watersheds. Water Resouces Research, 1995,31(8):2097-2110
[203] Chung C F, Fabbri A G Predicton models for landslide hazard using fuzzy set approadch.In: Marchetti M. Geomorphology and Environmental Impact Assessment. Rotterdam: A Balkerna publisher, 2001,31-47
[204] Binaghi E,Luzi L.slope instsbility zonation: A comparison between certainty factor fuzzy Dempster-Shafer approaches. Natural Hazards, 1998,17-97
[205] Saro Lee, Joo-Hyung Rty, Moung-Jin Lee, Joong-Sun Won, 2003,Use of an artificial neural nework for analysis of the susceptibility landslides at Boun, Korea. Environmental Geology 44:820-833.
[206] Kim S.K. et al, 1988. Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides in Korea, Proceeding 6th International Symposium Landslides, 1988, 1:989-99
[2] 中华人民共和国国土资源部,中国地质环境公报,2002
[3] 中华人民共和国国土资源部,中国地质环境公报,2003
[4] 李媛,董颖,杨旭东,孟晖,等. 542个县市地质灾害调查综合研究报告[R].北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2004
[5] 李媛,陈君,杨旭东,等. 542个县市地质灾害调查综合研究图集[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院, 2004
[6] 李媛, 孟晖, 等. 中国地质灾害类型及其特征----基于全国县市地质灾害调查成果分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2004, 15(2):29-34
[7] 刘传正, 唐灿, 等. 全国地质灾害气象预报预警实施方案[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2003
[8] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)宝兴幅H-48-XIII,1976
[9] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)荥经幅H-48-XIX,1974
[10] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)邛崃幅H-48-XIV,1976
[11] 四川省地质局,中华人民共和国区域地质调查报告及区域地质图(1:20 万)峨眉幅H-48-XX,1971
[12] 四川省地质局、地震局,四川省构造体系与地震震中分布规律图及说明书(1:100万),1980
[13] 成都地质学院,四川省挽近构造形迹图(1:65万),1976
[14] 国家测绘局,1:5万数字高程模型(H48E011004,H48E011005,H48E012004,H48E012005,H48E013004,H48E013005,H48E014004,H48E014005),2000
[15] 四川省雅安地区地质环境监测站,雅安地区地质灾害调查研究报告(1:50 万),1995
[16] 四川地勘局九O九水文地质工程地质大队.四川省雅安市雨城区地质灾害调查与区划报告[R]. 江油:四川地勘局九O九水文地质工程地质大队,2002.
[17] Nilsen T. H., Brabb E. E., Slope stability studies in the San Francisco Bay region, California, Geol. Soc. America, Reviews in Eng. Geol., 1977, pp235-243
[18] Sheko A.E., Theoretical principles of regional temporary prediction of landslide activation, Bulletin of IAEG, Prague, No.16, 1997, pp69-72
[19] Carrara A. , Multivariate models for landslide hazard evaluation, Math. Geol., 1983, 15:403-426
[20] Brabb E. E., Innovation approaches to landslide hazard and risk mapping, Proc. of 4th ISL, Toronto, 1984, pp307-323
[21] Brand E. W., Landslide risk assessment in Hong Kong, Landslide, 1988, pp1059-1074
[22] Cross M., Landslide susceptibility mapping using two matrix assessment approach, Geohazards in engineering geology, edited by J.G. Maund and M. Eddleston, Geological society engineering geology special publication No. 15, London, 1998, pp247-264
[23] Lumb P. Slope failures in Hong Kong[J]. Quarterly Journal of Engineering Geology, 1975, 8(1):31-65
[24] Ruxton B P. Slope problems in Hong Kong, a geological appraisal[J]. Hong Kong Engineer, 1980, 8(6):31-39
[25] Fourie A B. Predicting rainfall-induced slope instability[J]. Geotechnical Engineering,Institution of Civil Engineers,1996,119:211-218
[26] Collison A J C,Anderson M G. Using a combined slope hydrology-stability model to identify suitable conditions for landslide prevention by vegetation in the humid tropics[J]. Earth Surface Processes and Landforms,1996,21:737-747
[27] Evans N C. Natural terrain landslide study:preliminary assessment of the influence of rainfall on natural terrain landslide initiation[R]. Hong Kong:Geotechnical Engineering Office,1997,28～29
[28] Mark R K,Ellen S D. Statistical and simulation models for mapping debris flow hazard[A]. In:Carrara A,Guzetti F ed. Geographical Information System in Assessing Natural Hazard[C]. Amsterdam: Academic Publishers,1995,93-106
[29] Brabb E. Innovation approach to landslide hazard and risk mappin
[A]. In:Proceedings of the Fourth International Symposium on Landslide[C]. Toronto:Hazards Center Publication,1984,1:307-323
[30] 舒斯特R.T,等.滑坡的分析与防治[M].北京:中国铁道出版社,1987.48.
[31] Kienholz. H.et.al. Leg ends modulable pour la cartographie des phenomenes[M], 1995.12-16
[32] Takashi. Japan-China joint symposium on slope stability and their control[Z]. 1995.114-118.
[33] Ragozin A. L. Landslide hazard, vulnerability and risk assessment[Z]. Landslides in research, theory and practice, 1257-1262, Thomas Telford, London, 2000
[34] Michael-leiba M. Quantitative landslides risk assessment of Cairns Australia[Z].
[35] Aleotti P., Baldelli P., Polloni G., et al. Hydrogeological risk assessment of the Po river basin(Italy)[Z]. Landslides in research, theory and practice, 13-18, Thomas Telford, London, 2000
[36] 乔建平.不稳定斜坡危险度的判别[J].山地研究,1991,9(2):117～122.
[37] 乔建平,滑坡危险度区划方法研究[J].国土经济,1995,(专刊):35～45.
[38] 乔建平,等.长江上游滑坡危险度区划[J].水土保持学报,1994,8(1):39～44.
[39] 张业成,等.中国地质灾害危险性分析与灾变区划[J].地质灾害与环境保护,1995,6(3): 1～13.
[40] Anbal.K. 山区滑坡灾害的评价及分带制图[J].铁道勘测与设计,1993,(1):62～70.
[41] 钟荫乾.黄腊石滑坡综合信息预报方法研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报, 1995, 6(4): 68～74.
[42] 徐刚.灾害地貌危险度综合评价研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(1):8～14.
[43] 倪万魁.钢川市滑坡危险性综合评价[J].西安地质学院学报,1996,18(3):63～68.
[44] 张永治,等.山地填土边坡场内地表危险参水量的估算[J].西南公路,1994,(3):31～36.
[45] 殷坤龙,朱良峰. 滑坡灾害空间区划及GIS应用研究[J].地学前缘,2001,8(2):279-284
[46] 殷坤龙,等. 滑坡灾害区划系统研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2000, 11(4):28-32
[47] 殷坤龙,等. 地质灾害风险区划与综合防治对策[J]. 安全与环境工程, 2003, 10(1):32-35
[48] 殷坤龙. 滑坡灾害预测预报分类[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报, 2003, 14(4):12-18
[49] 吴益平, 等. 物元模型在滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用[J]. 地质科技情报, 2003, 22(4): 96-99
[50] 邢秋菊等.基于 GIS 的滑坡危险性逻辑回归评价研究.[J].地理与地理信息科学,2004,20(3):49-51
[51] 王亚强,王兰民,等. GIS 支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究[J]. 地理科学, 2004,24(2): 170-176
[52] Brand, E. W.; Premchitt, J.; Phillipson, H. B. 1984. Relationship between rainfall and landslide in HongKong. Proceeding 4th International Symposium Landslides, Toronto, 17 September 1984, 1:377-384
[53] David K. Keefer et al, 1987. Real-time landslide warning during heavy rainfall. Science,Vol.238: 921-925
[54] Au, S.W.C. 1998. Rain-induced slop instability in Hong Kong. Engineering Geology (1998) Vol.51(1):1-36
[55] Ayalew, L. 1999. The effect of seasonal rainfall on landslides in the highland of Ethiopia. Bull Eng Geol Env (1999)58:9-19
[56] Polemio, M.; Sdao, F. 1999. The role of rainfall in the landslide hazard: the case of the Avigliano urban area (Southern Apennines, Italy). Engineering Geology (1999) Vol.53(3-4):297-309
[57] Fuchu, D.; Lee, C.F.; Sijing, W. 1999.Analysis of rainstorm-induced slide-debris flows on natural terrain of Lantau Island, Hong Kong. Engineering Geology (1999) Vol.51(4):279-290
[58] Gland, T. 2000. Modeling landslide triggering rainfall thresholds at a range of complexities. Proceeding 8th International Symposium Landslides, Cardiff, 26 June 2000, 2:633-640
[59] Lin, M.L.; Jeng, F.S. 2000. Characteristics of hazards induced by extremely heavy rainfall in Central Taiwan. Engineering Geology (2000) Vol.58(2):191-207
[60] Dai, F. C.; Lee, C. F. 2001.Frequency-volume relation and prediction of rainfall-induced landslides. Engineering Geology (2001) Vol.59(3-4):253-266
[61] K.T.Chau ,Y.L.Sze,M.K.Fung,W.Y.Wong,E.L.Fong,L.C.P.Chan. Landslide hazard analysis for HongKongusing landslide inventory and GIS [J] Computers &Geosciences 2004,30(4): 429 –443
[62] Murat Ercanogluand ,Candan Gokceoglu. Use of fuzzy relations to produce landslide susceptibility map of a landslide prone area (West Black Sea Region, Turkey) [J]. Engineering Geology, 2004,75(3-4): 215-354
[63] Pietro Aleotti. A warning system for rainfall-induced shallow failures [J] Engineering Geology, 2004,73(3-4): 247-265
[64] Tenalem Ayenew,Giulio Barbieri。Inventory of landslides and susceptibility mapping in the Dessie area, northern Ethiopia [J] Engineering Geology, 2005,77(1-2): 1-15
[65] Francesco Fiorillo and Raymond C. Rainfall induced debris flows in pyroclastic deposits, Campania (southern Italy) [J] Engineering Geology, 2004,75(3-4): 263-289
[66] Iiritano, G., Versace, P.,Sirangelo, B. Real time estimation of hazard for landslides triggered by rainfall. [J] Environmental Geology ,1998,35( 2–3):175–183
[67] Keefer, D.K., Wilson, R.C., Mark, R.K., Brabb, E.E., Brown, W.M., Ellen, S.D., Harp, E.L., Wieczorek, G.F., Alger, C.S. and Zatkin, R.S., 1987. Real time landslide warning system during heavy rainfall. Science 238, pp. 921–925
[68] Glade, T., Crozier, M. and Smith, P., 2000. Applying probability determination to refine landslide-triggering rainfall thresholds using empirical "antecedent daily rainfall model". Pure and Applied Geophysics 157, pp. 1059–1079
[69] Glade, T., 2000. Modelling landslide-triggering rainfalls in different regions of New Zealand—the soil water status model. Zeitschrift für Geomorphologie N.E. 122, pp. 63–84.
[70] Glade, T., 2000. Modelling landslide triggering rainfall thresholds at a range of complexities. In: Proc of the VIII International Symposium on Landslides, Cardiff vol. 2, Telford, London, pp. 633–640.
[71] Wilson, R.C. and Wieczorek, G.F., 1995. Rainfall thresholds for the initiation of debris flow at La Honda, California. Environmental and Engineering Geoscience 1 1, pp. 11–27.
[72] 张先发,等. 长江上游暴雨与滑坡崩塌的关系[J]. 地理,1995,8(3).
[73] 杜榕桓,等. 长江三峡库区滑坡与泥石流研究[M]. 四川科学技术出版社,1991.
[74] 晏同珍,等. 崩塌滑坡灾害群发性初探[J]. 灾害学,1987,2(3).
[75] 李晓. 重庆地区的强降雨过程与地质灾害的相关分析[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,1995,6(3).
[76] 钟荫乾. 滑坡与降雨关系及其预报[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(4).
[77] 谭炳炎,等. 暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J]. 铁道学报,1992,14(3).
[78] 谭炳炎,等. 山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J]. 自然灾害学报,1995,4(2).
[79] 吴积善,等. 泥石流及其综合治理[M]. 科学出版社,1993.
[80] 符文熹. 川西泥石流分布特征与防治原则研究[J]. 中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998 , 9(1).
[81] 谭万沛,等. 四川省泥石流预报的区域临界雨量指标研究[J ]. 灾害学,1992,7(2).
[82] 唐灿, 李铁锋,等. 地质灾害气象预报预警技术要求[R]. 北京:中国地质环境监测院,2005
[83] 刘传正,李云贵,等. 四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4):20-30
[84] 周平根, 侯圣山, 等. 四川雅安地质灾害预警示范区建设阶段报告(2)[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2005.
[85] 乔建平,赵宇. 滑坡危险度区划研究综述[J]. 山地学报, 2001,19(2): 157-160
[86] 秦四清,张倬元,等. 滑坡非线性时间预报理论[A]. 工程地质研究进展[C]. 成都:西南交通大学出版社,1993,171-181
[87] 周萃英, 晏同珍. 滑坡灾害系统非线性动力学研究[J]. 长春地质学院学报, 1995, 25(3): 311-316
[88] Carrara A., Guzzetti F. Use of GIS technology in the prediction and Monitoring of landslide hazard[J]. Natural Hazards, 1999,20:117-135
[89] 张桂荣、殷坤龙,等. 基于 GIS 的陕西省旬阳地区滑坡灾害危险性区划. 中国地质灾害防治学报,2003,14(4):39-43
[90] 王亚强、王兰民、张小曳. GIS支持下的黄土高原地震滑坡区划研究. 地理科学,2004,24(2):170-176
[91] Newmark N M. Effects of earthquakes on dams and embankments [J].Geotechnique, 1965, 15(2):139-160.
[92] Taylor D W. Fundamentals of Soil Mechanice [M].New York:Wiley,1948.
[93] Koppula S D.Pseudo-static analysis of clay slopes subjected toearthquakes [J]. Geotechnique, 1984, 34(1), 71-79
[94] Wilson R, Eieczorek G, Harp E. Development of criteria for regional mapping of seismic slope stability [J]. Gelolgical Society of America, Abstracts with Programs,1979,11(3):37-38
[95] Jibson R W,E L Harp, J A Michael. A method for producing digital probabilistic seismic landslide hazard maps [J].Engineering Geology,2000,58(3-4):271-289.
[96] Luzi L, F Pergalani. Applications of statistical and GIS techniques to slope instability zonation (1:50000 Fabriano geological map sheet) [J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 1996, 15(2):83-94
[97] Refice A, D Capolongo. Probabilistic modeling of uncertainties in earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment [J]. Computers & Geosciences,2002,28(6):735-749
[98] Miles S B, C L Ho. Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Ne wmark’s method and stochastic ground motion simulation [J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 1999, 18(4):305-323.
[99] Technical Committee for Earthquake Geotechnical Engineering, ISSMGE. Manual for Zonation on Seismic Geotechnical Hazards[M]. Tokyo: The Japanese Geotechnical Society, 1999.
[100] Gupta R P,B C Joshi. Landslide hazard zoning using the GIS approach-a case study from the Ramganaga Catchment, Himalayas [J].Engineering Geology, 1990, 28(2):119-131
[101] Dai F C, C F Lee. Landslide characteristics and slope instability modeling using GIS, Lantau Island, Hong Kong [J]. Geomorphology, 2002,48(4):349-364.
[102] Clerici A, S Perego, C Tellini.A procedure for landslide susceptibility zonation by the conditional analysis method [J].Geomorphology, 2002, 48(4):349-364.
[103] Baeza C., Corominas J. Assessment of shallow landslide susceptibility by means of statistical techniques[A]. In: Proc Ⅶ Int. Symp. on landslide, Trondheim[C],1996,1:153-158
[104] 文宝萍. 滑坡预测预报研究现状与发展趋势[J].地学前缘,1996,3(1-2):86-92
[105] 张梁,张业成,等. 地质灾害灾情评估理论与实践[M]. 北京: 地质出版社, 1998
[106] Fell R. Landslide risk assessment and acceptable risk[J]. Journal of Canadian Geotechnique, 1994, 31: 261-272
[107] 戴福初,李军. 地理信息系统在滑坡灾害研究中的应用[J]. 地质科技情报, 2000,19(1):91-96
[108] Refice A, D Capolongo. Probabilistic modeling of uncertainties in earthquake-induced landslide hazard assessment [J]. Computers & Geosciences,2002,28(6):735-749
[109] Miles S B, C L Ho. Rigorous landslide hazard zonation using Ne wmark’s method and stochastic ground motion simulation [J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 1999, 18(4):305-323.
[110] 兰恒星,伍法权,王思敬. 基于GIS的滑坡CF多元回归模型及其应用[J]. 山地学报,2002,20(6):732-737
[111] Heckeman. Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN’s certainty factors[A]. In:L.N.Kanal and J.F.Lemmer (eds). Uncertainty in Artificial Intelligence[C]. New York, Elsevier, 1986.298-311
[112] 兰恒星,伍法权,等. 基于GIS的云南小江流域滑坡因子敏感性分析[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2002, 21(10):1500-1506
[113] 孙广忠,姚宝魁.中国滑坡地质灾害及其研究[A].中国岩石力学与工程学会编,中国典型滑坡[C].北京:科学出版社,1988 1-11
[114] 刘传正,李云贵,等. 四川雅安地质灾害时空预警试验区初步研究[J]. 水文地质工程地质,2004,31(4): 20-32
[115] 刘传正,李云贵,等. 地质灾害典型区监测预警示范区建设研究报告[R].
[116] 周平根, 侯圣山, 等. 四川雅安地质灾害预警示范区建设阶段报告(2)[R]. 北京: 中国地质环境监测院,2005.
[117] 兰恒星,王苓涓,周成虎. 云南小江流域滑坡关键影响因子研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003, 14(1): 100-106
[118] Wieczorek, G.F., Morgan, B.A. and Campbell, R.H., 2000. Debris flow hazards in the Blue Ridge of Central Virginia[J]. Environmetal and Engineering Geoscience 1989 VI 1, pp. 3–23.
[119] Campbell, R.H. Debris flow originating from soil slip during rainstorm in southern California[J]. Enginerring Geologist 1975,7, pp. 339–349.
[120] Lumb, P., 1975. Slope failure in Hong Kong. Quarterly Journal Engineeering Geologist 8, pp. 31–65.
[121] Brand, E.W., Premchitt, J. and Phillipson, H.B., 1984. Relationship between rainfall and landslides in Hong Kong. In: Proc. of the IV International Symposium on Landslides, Toronto vol. 1, pp. 377–384.
[122] Cancelli, A. and Nova, R., 1985. Landslides in soil debris cover triggered by rainstorm in Valtellina (Central Alps, Italy). In: Proc. of the IV International Conference on Landslides, Tokyo vol. 1, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp. 267–272.
[123] Cannon, S.H. and Ellen, S.D., 1985. Rainfall conditions for abundant debris avalanches, San Francisco Bay region, California. California Geology 38 12, pp. 267–272
[124] Wieczorek, G.F., 1987. Effect of rainfall intensity and duration on debris flows in central Santa Cruz Mountains, California. In: Costa and Wieczorek, Editors, 1987. Debris Flows/Avalanches: Processes, Recognition and MitigationReviews in Engineering Geology vol. 7, Geological Society of America, pp. 23–104.
[125] Guzzetti, F., Crosta, G., Marchetti, M. and Reichenbach, P., 1992. Debris flows triggered by the July, 17–19, 1987 storm in the Valtellina Area (Northern Italy). In: Proc. of the VII International Congress Interpraevent 1992, Bern vol. 2, pp. 193–204.
[126] Polloni, G., Ceriani, M., Lauzi, S., Padovan, N. and Crosta, G., 1992. Rainfall and soil slipping events in Valtellina. Proc. of the VI International Symposium on Landslides. Christchurch 1, pp. 183–188.
[127] Morgan, B.A., Wieczorek, G.F., Campbell, R.H. and Gori, P.L., 1997. Debris flow hazards in areas affected by the June 27, 1995 storm in Madison County, Virginia. USGS Open File Report, pp. 97–438.
[128] Crosta, G., 1998. Regionalization of rainfall thresholds: an aid to landslide hazard evaluation. Environmental Geology 35 2–3, pp. 131–145.
[129] Corominas, J. and Moya, J., 1999. Reconstructing recent landslide activity in relation to rainfall in the Llobregat river basin, Eastern Pyrenees, Spain. Geomorphology 30, pp. 79–93.
[130] Flentje, P., Chowdhury, R.N. and Tobin, P., 2000. Management of landslides triggered by a major storm event in Wollongong, Australia. In: Proc. of the II International Conference on Debris-Flow Hazards Mitigation, Mechanics, Prediction and Assessment, Taipei, pp. 479–487.
[131] Paronuzzi, P., Del Fabbro, M. and Maddaleni, P., 2002. Frane superficiali tipo slide debris flow causate dal nubifragio del 21/22 giugno 1996 nella Val Chiarsò (Alpi Carniche, Friuli). Memorie della Societa Geologica Italiana 57, pp. 443–452.
[132] Sandersen, F., Bakkeoi, S., Hestnes, E. and Lied, K., 1996. The influence of meteorological factors on the initiation of debris flows, rockfalls, rockslides and rockmass stability. In: Proc. of the VII International Symposium on Landslides, Trondheim vol. 1, Balkema, Rotterdam, pp. 97–114.
[133] Bonnard, Ch. and Noverraz, F., 2001. Influence of climate change on large landslides: assessment of long term movements and trends. In: Proc. of the International Conference on Landslides: causes impact and countermeasures, Gluckauf, Essen, Davos, pp. 121–138.
[134] Brand, E. W.; Premchitt, J.; Phillipson, H. B. Relationship between rainfall and landslide in HongKong. Proceeding 4th International Symposium Landslides, Toronto, 17 September 1984, 1:377-384
[135] Alan F. Chleborad,Preliminary Method for Anticipating the Occurrence of Precipitation-Induced Landslides in Seattle, Washington. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 00-469 2000
[136] Alan F. Chleborad,Preliminary Evaluation of a Precipitation Threshold for Anticipating the Occurrence of Landslides in the Seattle, Washington Area. U.S. Geological Survey Open-File Report 03-463 2003
[137] LumbP.GeneralnaturalofthesoilofHongKong[A].In:Anon.SymposiumonHongkongSoils[C]. 1962.19-31.
[138] Brand E. W. Landslide risk assessmention in Hongkong [A].In:BonnardC.Proc.5th Sym.on Landslides[C]. 1988.1059-1074.
[139] Wieczorek G.F., and Sarmiento, J. Significance of storm intensity-duration for triggering of debris flows near La Honda, California: Geological Society of America Abstracts with Programs, 1983,,v. 15, no. 5, p. 289.
[140] Wieczorek, G.F., Lips, E.W., and Ellen, S.D., Debris flows and hyperconcentrated floods along the Wasatch Front, Utah, 1983 and 1984: Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologists, V. 26, No. 2, p. 191-208.
[141] Reichenbach, P., Cardinali, M., De Vita, P. and Guzzetti, F., 1998. Regional hydrological thresholds for landslides and floods in the Tiber River Basin (central Italy). Environmental Geology 35 2–3, pp. 146–159
[142] 谢剑明,刘礼领, 等. 浙江省滑坡灾害预警预报的降雨量阀值研究[J]. 地质科技情报, 2003, 22(4): 101-105
[143] Wieczork, G.F. Evaulating Danger Landslide Caralogue Map[J]. Bulletin of the Association of Engineering Geologists, 1984, 1(1): 337-342
[144] Ellen S.D. et, al. Landslide, Floods and Natine Effect of the Storm of January 1982, in the San Francisco Bay Ragion[Z]. California, V.S.S, 1988.3-5
[145] 卢全中等.地质灾风险评估(价)研究综述[J].灾害学,2003,18(4):59-63
[146] 向喜琼,黄润秋,基于 GIS 的人工神经网络模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J]。中国地质灾害与防治学报,2000,11(3):24-27
[147] 王济川、郭志刚,Logistic 回归模型方法与应用[M],北京高等到教育出版社,2001
[148] 周翠英等.基于 GIS 技术的区域性滑坡发生概率分析[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2004,23(6):911-914
[149] 孙怀军、张永波,滑坡预测预报的现状和发展趋势,太原理工大学学报,2001.11,32(6),636-639
[150] 许强、黄润秋,李秀珍,滑坡时间预测预报研究进展,地球科学与进展,200.4,19(3),478-483
[151] 张梁、张建军,地质灾害风险区划理论与方法[J],地质灾害与环境保护,2000,11(4):323-328
[152] 周萃英、晏同珍、汤连生,滑坡灾害系统非线性动力学研究,长春地质学院学报,1995.7,25(3),311-316
[153] 陈永波等.基于地理信息系统及人工智能技术的滑坡危险度区划探讨[J].水土保持学报,2003,17(5):169-171
[154] 张春山,吴满路,张业成,地质灾害风险评价方法及展望[J].自然灾害学报,2002,12(1):96-102
[155] 柳源,中国地质灾害(以崩、滑、流为主)危险性分析与区划[J],中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(1):95-99
[156] 谢小娟,地质环境条件及诱发因素在地质灾害易发分区中定量化评价初探[J],探矿工程,2003:93-95
[157] 阮沈勇、黄润秋,基于 GIS 的信息量法模型在地质灾害危险性区划中的应用[J],成都理工学院学报,2001,28(1):89-92
[158] 陈正洪等.湖北省降雨型滑坡泥石流及其降雨因子的时空分布、相关性浅析[J].岩土力学,1995,16 (3):62-68
[159] 许强、黄润秋,非线性科学理论在地质灾害评价预测中的应用——地质灾害系统分析原理[J],山地学报,2000,18(3):272-277
[160] 王建锋,滑坡发生时间预报分析,中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003.6,14(2),1-18
[161] 文海家、张永兴、柳源,滑坡预报国内外研究动态及发展趋势,中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004.3,15(1),1-4
[162] 杜榕恒等.长江三峡库区滑坡与泥石流研究[M].成都:四川科学技术出版社,1991,33-36
[163] 单新建等.基于 GIS 的区域滑坡危险性预测方法与初步应用[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2002,21(10):1 507-1 514
[164] 谢守益等.长江三峡库区典型滑坡降雨诱发的概率分析[J].工程地质学报,1995,3 (2):60-69
[165] 罗菊英.巴东县城关及其周边地区滑坡与降水的关系初探[J].湖北气象,2001,(4):10-12
[166] 汪明武.基于神经网络的泥石流危险度区划[J].水文地质工程地质,2000(2):18-19
[167] 白永峰等.成昆铁路暴雨泥石流灾害预测模型的研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,1998,9(4):74-80
[168] 李思平等.基于非线性理论的边坡稳定性评价模型[J]水文地质工程地质,2002,第 2期:11-14
[169] 袁曾任.人工神经元网络及其应用[M]北京:清华大学出版社,1999
[170] 崔鹏,刘世建,谭万沛.中国泥石流监测预报研究现状与展望[J].自然灾害学报,2000,9(2):10-15
[171] 龙辉等.边坡演化的非线性动力学与突变分析[J]工程地质学报,2001,9(3):331-334
[172] 郑乾墙.滑坡危险性的模糊综合评判[J]江西地质,1999,13(4):299-303
[173] 崔中兴等.神经网络在滑坡预报中的应用[J]水土保持通报,1995,15(5)
[174] 文科军等.暴雨泥石流实时预报的研究[J].北京林业大学学报,1998,20(6):59-64
[175] 周金星等.山洪泥石流灾害预报预警技术述评[J].山地学报,2001,19(6):527-532
[176] 唐璐等.混沌和神经网络结合的滑坡预测方法[J].岩石力学与工程学报,2003,22(12):1984-1987
[177] 许强等.斜坡稳定性空间预测的神经网络方法[J]中国地质灾害与防治学报,1994,5(2):17-2
[178] 李东山等到.三峡库区滑坡综合预报系统的设计与实现[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2003,14(2):24-27
[179] 唐红梅等.重庆万州区地质灾害危险性分区及评价[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2004,15(3):1-5
[180] 吴文德等.边坡稳定的灾变分析[J]化工矿山技术,1994,23(2):5-6
[181] 周国兵等.重庆市山体滑坡气象条件等级预报业务系统[J].应用气象学报,2003,14(1):122-124
[182] 谭炳炎,段爱英.山区铁路沿线暴雨泥石流预报的研究[J] .自然灾害学报,1995(42):43-52.[29]
[183] 戴作鹏等.简述滑坡的观测方法和滑坡预报[J]四川测绘,1999,22(3):140-141
[184] 沈良峰等基于指数平滑技术的边坡位移预测方法[J].建筑科学,2004,20(4):43-46
[185] 许强等.地质灾害发生时间和空间的预测预报[J].山地学报,2000,18(增刊)
[186] 柳源.滑坡临界暴雨精度[J].水文地质工程地质,1998,25(3):43-45
[187] 吴益平等.物元模型在滑坡灾害风险预测中的应用[J].地质科技情报,2003,22(4):96-99
[188] Greenway D.R. et al, 1984. Influence of vegetation on slope stability in Hong Kong. Proceeding 4th International Symposium Landslides, Toronto, 17 September 1984, 1: 399-404
[189] 郁淑华.四川盆地泥石流、滑坡的时空分布特征及其气象成因分析[J].高原气象,2003,22(增刊):83-89
[190] 刘少军等.利用 A r c G I S 中 VBA 开发滑坡阶段综合预报功能[J].桂林工学院学报,2004,24(3):315-318
[191] 张玲等.基于 GIS 的滑坡临界降雨指标的研究[J].浙江大学学报(农业与生命科学版),2003,29(5):493-498
[192] 朱良峰等.基于 GIS 的中国滑坡灾害风险分析[J].岩土力学,2003,24(增刊):221-224
[193] 单九生等.诱发江西滑坡的降水特征分析[J].气象,200330(1):13-16
[194] 韦方强等.泥石流危险性动量分区方法与应用[J].科学通报,2003,48(3):298-301
[195] Carrara A,Guzzetti F.Use of GIS technology in the prediction and monitoring of landslide hazard. Natural Hazards,1999,20(2):117-135
[196] Pike R J.Quantifying landslide-terrain types from digital elevation models. Mathematical Geology, 1988,20(5):491-511
[197] Chung C.F.Fabbri A.G. Multivariate regression analysis for landslide hazard zonation. Ln:GIS in Assessing Natural Hazards. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers,1995.107-133
[198] Heckerman D. Probabilistic interpretation of MYCIN’s certainty factors: Kanal L N, Lemmer J F Uncertainty in Artifical Intelligence. New York: Elsevier, 1986.298～311
[199] Chung C F, Fabbri A G, Probabilitic prediction models for landslide hazard mapping. photogrammetric engineering & remote Sensing, 1999,65(12):1388-1399
[200] Montgomery D R, Dietrich W E.A physically based model for the topographic control on shallow landsliding. Water Resouces Research, 1994,30(4) :1153-1171
[201] Dietrich E W, Reises R, Hsu ML. A process-based model for colluvial soil depth and shallow landsliding using digital elevation data. Hydrological Processes, 1995.9:383-400
[202] Wu W, sidle R C. A distributed slope stability model for steep forested watersheds. Water Resouces Research, 1995,31(8):2097-2110
[203] Chung C F, Fabbri A G Predicton models for landslide hazard using fuzzy set approadch.In: Marchetti M. Geomorphology and Environmental Impact Assessment. Rotterdam: A Balkerna publisher, 2001,31-47
[204] Binaghi E,Luzi L.slope instsbility zonation: A comparison between certainty factor fuzzy Dempster-Shafer approaches. Natural Hazards, 1998,17-97
[205] Saro Lee, Joo-Hyung Rty, Moung-Jin Lee, Joong-Sun Won, 2003,Use of an artificial neural nework for analysis of the susceptibility landslides at Boun, Korea. Environmental Geology 44:820-833.
[206] Kim S.K. et al, 1988. Prediction of rainfall-triggered landslides in Korea, Proceeding 6th International Symposium Landslides, 1988, 1:989-99