制度与中国对外直接投资的理论与实证
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摘要
中国对外直接投资的现状，从宏观上讲，处于对外直接投资周期理论的第三个阶段。对外直接投资规模依然相对较小，但增长迅速，投资区位地域特征明显；对外直接投资受能源安全、过剩产能转移、产业转型升级等经济内因的驱动；另外，对外直接投资有明显的源自于企业内部制度异质性和地区间制度环境异质性引致的差异；最后，对外直接投资得到了国家政策的大力支持。
从母国制度论角度，我们把企业制度异质性因素，引入到企业对外直接投资决策和对外直接投资区位决策的理论分析中，拓展了新新贸易理论的适用范围。我们把制度论的相关理念与新新贸易理论相融合，构建了新的数理模型，新模型在保留了企业生产率异质性的基础上，重点强调了制度因素在解释处于经济体制转型时期发展中大国(中国)对外直接投资问题上的作用。理论分析显示，企业生产率异质性依然是影响企业国际化模式决策和企业对外直接投资区位决策的一个重要因素；除此之外，企业的制度异质性也影响了企业国际化模式的边界，以及企业对外直接投资的区位抉择边界。
经验分析结果支持了理论推断，与政府关系密切的企业享有相对较低的对外直接投资门槛。经验分析显示，(1)企业异质性因素对企业国际化模式决策有显著地影响，企业生产率异质性对企业出口或ODI抉择都有显著影响，生产率较低的企业只服务于国内市场，生产率较高的企业通过出口服务国际市场，生产率最高的企业通过ODI服务海外市场；另外，企业制度异质性——企业与政府关系亲疏程度，对企业出口抉择也有显著地影响，相对而言与政府关系近的企业容易出口，但是，企业制度异质性因素对ODI抉择的影响并不显著。(2)企业异质性因素对企业ODI区位决策也有显著地影响，企业生产率异质性对企业ODI区位抉择有显著影响，生产率较高的企业选择投资到发展中国家，生产率更高的企业选择投资到发达国家，生产率最高的企业选择同时投资到这两类国家；另外，企业制度异质性——企业与政府关系亲疏程度，对企业ODI区位抉择也有显著影响，与政府关系近的企业，可以享受制度的红利，使得这些企业在ODI上有制度比较优势，与其他企业相比，这些企业ODI可以有相对较低的门槛。不论是对发展中国家ODI、发达国家ODI、还是同时对这两类国家ODI,与政府关系近的企业都更容易成功，企业的制度异质性因素改变了企业ODI区位抉择的边界。
另外，鉴于母国内部地区之间存在明显的制度差异，从契约论等角度的分析认为，制度环境可能成为当地企业的一个比较优势。经验分析证实，地区制度环境显著地影响了企业国际化模式决策和对外直接投资区位决策。地区制度环境地改善，显著地促进了当地企业出口或对外直接投资；地区制度环境地改善,也显著地促进当地企业对发达国家进行投资。在控制了新贸易理论，新新贸易理论等相关因素的影响之后，我们分别用地区法治环境指数、地区产权保护指数、地区所有者权益保护指数作为地区法治制度环境的代理变量，对微观企业的国际化模式抉择和ODI区位抉择分别进行了实证分析，结果显示，(1)在对企业国际化模式的影响上，地区法治制度因素的确对企业出口抉择与ODI抉择都有显著地正向影响，地区法治环境的改善促进所在地企业出口和对外直接投资，表明地区法治制度环境是企业出口或ODI的一个比较优势，显著地影响了企业国际化模式。(2)在对企业ODI区位抉择的影响上，地区法治环境因素也显著影响了所在地企业ODI的区位抉择，相对而言，地区法治制度环境的改善有助于企业去发达国家进行投资。
除了母国企业内部制度异质性，母国内部地区之间制度差异之外，本文最后分析了东道国制度因素（与中国的制度距离），对中国企业投资决策和投资区位选择的影响。经验分析证实，一般而言，东道国制度环境越好越能吸引到来自中国企业的投资，但东道国不同经济制度指标的分析结果略有差异。我们在控制了一系列对中国企业ODI的影响因素后，分别用经济制度环境综合指数、产权指数、行政清廉指数、财政自由度指数、政府支出指数、营业自由度指数、劳动力自由度指数、货币自由度指数、贸易自由度指数、投资自由度指数、金融自由度指数作为东道国经济制度的代理变量，检验了其对中国企业国际化模式及ODI区位抉择的影响，结果显示，(1)相对于出口，东道国经济制度越成熟越能吸引中国企业ODI，我们用东道国各种经济制度指标衡量，经验分析结果都比较稳定。(2)一般而言，发展中国家、发达国家的经济制度越好都越能吸引到中国企业ODI,发达国家的吸引作用相对更明显。
根据本文的理论及实证分析结果，我们谨慎提出以下政策建议：(1)加快推进国有企业内部体制改革，逐渐减弱或消除其相对“超国民”优势，政策上逐渐向民营企业倾斜，在制度层面上保证各个企业个体有相对公平的环境；(2)加快一些地区硬件设施建设，同时，通过交流、培训、指导、监督加快这些地区的制度软环境建设，缓解地区之间在制度上的非平衡性；(3)加快经济体制转型，加快政府职能的转变，剥离政府在经济体系中的双重身份。国家的制度架构与政府职能影响个体经济及综合经济效率，加强非人格化的制度建设，强化法律制度规范的权威，经济问题的解决依据契约精神，而非人格或关系因素，提高经济运行绩效；规范政府对经济的干预，强化政府的服务职能，从制度上强化依法行政，加强对行政的民主监督。
The status quo of China's ODI, from a macro perspective, China is currently inthe third phase in foreign direct investment cycle theory. The amount of ODI is stillrelatively less, but it is growing particularly fast, the investment location has obviousregional characteristic; ODI has driven by the energy security, transfer of excesscapacity, industry transformation and upgrading (Internal economic factors); Inaddition, ODI has obvious heterogeneity caused by the enterprise internal systemdifference and regional institutional environment heterogeneity; Finally, the ODI hasbeen the strong support from national policy.
From the perspective of Home institutional theories, the enterprise systemheterogeneity factor is introduced into theoretical analysis of the choice of ODI andODI’s location, expanding the new new trade theory. By the integration of the relatedconcept of institutional theory and new new trade theory, a new mathematical modelwas constructed, the new model on the basis of the enterprises productivityheterogeneity, emphasizes role of the institutional factors in explaining ODI issues inbig developing country(China) in the period of institutional transition. Theoreticalresults show that the heterogeneity of enterprise productivity is still one of the mostimportant factors of influence on its internationalization mode and ODI locationchoice; In addition, the heterogeneity in system of the enterprise also affects theenterprise internationalization model boundary, as well as the enterprise ODIlocation choice boundary. Experience analysis supports the inference conclusion oftheories. Analysis shows that enterprises with close ties to government enjoy arelatively low barrier for ODI.
Empirical analysis shows that (1) the enterprise heterogeneity factors havesignificant impact on mode choices of enterprise for internationalization, theproductivity heterogeneity of enterprise has significant impact on it’s choice betweenexport and ODI, the enterprises with low productivity service only in the domesticmarket, the enterprises with higher productivity through export services in theinternational market, the enterprises with highest productivity through ODI servicein the foreign markets; In addition, the heterogeneity of enterprise system,relationship between enterprises and government, significantly affect the choice ofenterprises for export, the enterprises are more close to government, they are morelikely to export, but the influence of heterogeneity in enterprise system on it’s ODIchoice is not significant.(2) the enterprise heterogeneity factors significantly alsoimpact on the location choice of it’s ODI, heterogeneity in productivitiessignificantly affect it’s ODI location choices, the enterprises with high productivitychoose to investment in the developing countries, the enterprises with moreproductivity choose to investment in the developed countries, the enterprises withhighest productivity choose to investment both countries at the same time;Heterogeneity of enterprise system, degree in relationship between the enterprisesand government significantly affect the location choices of the enterprise for ODI,the enterprises are more close with government, they can enjoy some ‘dividends’from institution, so they acquire some enterprise comparative advantage on ODI,compared with other enterprises, these enterprises ODI may enjoy relatively low threshold, Whether ODI for developing countries or ODI for developed countries orODI for both developing countries and developed countries are more successful, ifthe enterprise are more close with government, the institutional heterogeneity factorsof the enterprise changed the border of enterprises in ODI location choices
In addition, in view of the motherland regional institutional environmentdifference markedly, by analysis from the perspective of contract theory and so on,the institutional environment may become a comparative advantage of localenterprises. Empirical analysis confirmed that the institution of regional environmentsignificantly affected the enterprise internationalization mode choice, and ODIlocation choice. The improvement of the institution of regional environmentsignificantly promotes local enterprises to export or ODI; the improvement of theinstitution of regional environment significantly promotes local companies to investin developed countries. In control of a lot of influential factors from the new tradetheory, new trade theory, we use an index for the rule of law, an index for the districtproperty protection, an index for regional protection of the rights and interests ofowners as the proxy variables for regional institutional differences, to explore theinfluence of regional legal institutional differences on mode choice ofinternationalization and on choice of ODI location for the microscopic enterpriseslocate in these regions, the results shows that (1) regional legal environment hassignificant positive influence on both export choice and ODI choice for enterpriseslocate in these regions, improvement in regional legal environment promote localenterprises to export and outward direct investment, the regional environment is acomparative advantage for local enterprises, and significantly affect theinternationalization mode of the enterprises;(2) regional legal environment hassignificant influence on choice of ODI location for enterprises locate in these regions,improvement in regional legal environment promote local enterprises to investmentin developed countries.
In addition to heterogeneity of the enterprise internal system, and home interiorregion institutional differences, finally, the paper analyzes the impact of theinstitutional factors in the host country (distance) on the Chinese enterpriseinvestment decision and the investment location choice. The empirical results showthat in general, the host countries with better institutional environment are morelikely to attract investment from Chinese companies, but there are differences in theresults of the different host system indicators.
In control of a lot of influential factors from the new trade theory, new tradetheory, we respectively use comprehensive economic environment index, propertyrights index, administrative corruption perceptions index, financial freedom index,government spending index, business freedom index, monetary freedom index,labour freedom index, trade freedom index, investment freedom index, financialfreedom index as the proxy variables for economic institutional factors of hostcountries’s, to explore the influence of these host countries’s economic institutionalfactors on mode choice of internationalization and on choice of ODI location for theenterprises in China, the results shows that (1) relative to export, the host countrymore attract Chinese enterprises ODI, if the economic institutional environment ofthese countries are more mature, we use a variety of economic institutional measure to empirical analysis, the results are steady.(2) In general, whether improvement ineconomic institutional environment for the developing countries or developedcountries is more attracted ODI from Chinese enterprises ODI, the improvement indeveloped countries is more attractive in ODI than in developing countries.
According to the theory and empirical analysis results of this paper, wecarefully put forward the following Suggestions:(1) to accelerating reform of thestate-owned enterprise internal system, we need to gradually weaken or eliminate itsrelative "super national" advantage, need more policy to supporting the privateenterprises gradually, we use the institutional structure to ensure each individualfirms to have relatively fair environment;(2) to accelerating the construction ofinfrastructure in some regions, at the same time, through communication, training,guidance, supervision, we accelerate the regional soft institutional environmentconstruction for the relief on the difference between areas;(3) to speeding up theeconomic system transformation, and speed up the transformation of governmentfunctions and stripping double identity of the government in the economic system,because of that the system architecture of State and functions of the governmentinfluence the individual economy and comprehensive economic efficiency, we needto strengthen the system construction of impersonalization, to strengthen theauthority of the legal system of norms for the solution of the economic problemsaccording to the contract spirit, rather than personality or relational factors, and thenthe economic performance improved; we need to standardizing the governmentintervention in the economy, to strengthen the government's service function, theadministration according to law, and the democracy of administrative supervision.
从母国制度论角度，我们把企业制度异质性因素，引入到企业对外直接投资决策和对外直接投资区位决策的理论分析中，拓展了新新贸易理论的适用范围。我们把制度论的相关理念与新新贸易理论相融合，构建了新的数理模型，新模型在保留了企业生产率异质性的基础上，重点强调了制度因素在解释处于经济体制转型时期发展中大国(中国)对外直接投资问题上的作用。理论分析显示，企业生产率异质性依然是影响企业国际化模式决策和企业对外直接投资区位决策的一个重要因素；除此之外，企业的制度异质性也影响了企业国际化模式的边界，以及企业对外直接投资的区位抉择边界。
经验分析结果支持了理论推断，与政府关系密切的企业享有相对较低的对外直接投资门槛。经验分析显示，(1)企业异质性因素对企业国际化模式决策有显著地影响，企业生产率异质性对企业出口或ODI抉择都有显著影响，生产率较低的企业只服务于国内市场，生产率较高的企业通过出口服务国际市场，生产率最高的企业通过ODI服务海外市场；另外，企业制度异质性——企业与政府关系亲疏程度，对企业出口抉择也有显著地影响，相对而言与政府关系近的企业容易出口，但是，企业制度异质性因素对ODI抉择的影响并不显著。(2)企业异质性因素对企业ODI区位决策也有显著地影响，企业生产率异质性对企业ODI区位抉择有显著影响，生产率较高的企业选择投资到发展中国家，生产率更高的企业选择投资到发达国家，生产率最高的企业选择同时投资到这两类国家；另外，企业制度异质性——企业与政府关系亲疏程度，对企业ODI区位抉择也有显著影响，与政府关系近的企业，可以享受制度的红利，使得这些企业在ODI上有制度比较优势，与其他企业相比，这些企业ODI可以有相对较低的门槛。不论是对发展中国家ODI、发达国家ODI、还是同时对这两类国家ODI,与政府关系近的企业都更容易成功，企业的制度异质性因素改变了企业ODI区位抉择的边界。
另外，鉴于母国内部地区之间存在明显的制度差异，从契约论等角度的分析认为，制度环境可能成为当地企业的一个比较优势。经验分析证实，地区制度环境显著地影响了企业国际化模式决策和对外直接投资区位决策。地区制度环境地改善，显著地促进了当地企业出口或对外直接投资；地区制度环境地改善,也显著地促进当地企业对发达国家进行投资。在控制了新贸易理论，新新贸易理论等相关因素的影响之后，我们分别用地区法治环境指数、地区产权保护指数、地区所有者权益保护指数作为地区法治制度环境的代理变量，对微观企业的国际化模式抉择和ODI区位抉择分别进行了实证分析，结果显示，(1)在对企业国际化模式的影响上，地区法治制度因素的确对企业出口抉择与ODI抉择都有显著地正向影响，地区法治环境的改善促进所在地企业出口和对外直接投资，表明地区法治制度环境是企业出口或ODI的一个比较优势，显著地影响了企业国际化模式。(2)在对企业ODI区位抉择的影响上，地区法治环境因素也显著影响了所在地企业ODI的区位抉择，相对而言，地区法治制度环境的改善有助于企业去发达国家进行投资。
除了母国企业内部制度异质性，母国内部地区之间制度差异之外，本文最后分析了东道国制度因素（与中国的制度距离），对中国企业投资决策和投资区位选择的影响。经验分析证实，一般而言，东道国制度环境越好越能吸引到来自中国企业的投资，但东道国不同经济制度指标的分析结果略有差异。我们在控制了一系列对中国企业ODI的影响因素后，分别用经济制度环境综合指数、产权指数、行政清廉指数、财政自由度指数、政府支出指数、营业自由度指数、劳动力自由度指数、货币自由度指数、贸易自由度指数、投资自由度指数、金融自由度指数作为东道国经济制度的代理变量，检验了其对中国企业国际化模式及ODI区位抉择的影响，结果显示，(1)相对于出口，东道国经济制度越成熟越能吸引中国企业ODI，我们用东道国各种经济制度指标衡量，经验分析结果都比较稳定。(2)一般而言，发展中国家、发达国家的经济制度越好都越能吸引到中国企业ODI,发达国家的吸引作用相对更明显。
根据本文的理论及实证分析结果，我们谨慎提出以下政策建议：(1)加快推进国有企业内部体制改革，逐渐减弱或消除其相对“超国民”优势，政策上逐渐向民营企业倾斜，在制度层面上保证各个企业个体有相对公平的环境；(2)加快一些地区硬件设施建设，同时，通过交流、培训、指导、监督加快这些地区的制度软环境建设，缓解地区之间在制度上的非平衡性；(3)加快经济体制转型，加快政府职能的转变，剥离政府在经济体系中的双重身份。国家的制度架构与政府职能影响个体经济及综合经济效率，加强非人格化的制度建设，强化法律制度规范的权威，经济问题的解决依据契约精神，而非人格或关系因素，提高经济运行绩效；规范政府对经济的干预，强化政府的服务职能，从制度上强化依法行政，加强对行政的民主监督。
The status quo of China's ODI, from a macro perspective, China is currently inthe third phase in foreign direct investment cycle theory. The amount of ODI is stillrelatively less, but it is growing particularly fast, the investment location has obviousregional characteristic; ODI has driven by the energy security, transfer of excesscapacity, industry transformation and upgrading (Internal economic factors); Inaddition, ODI has obvious heterogeneity caused by the enterprise internal systemdifference and regional institutional environment heterogeneity; Finally, the ODI hasbeen the strong support from national policy.
From the perspective of Home institutional theories, the enterprise systemheterogeneity factor is introduced into theoretical analysis of the choice of ODI andODI’s location, expanding the new new trade theory. By the integration of the relatedconcept of institutional theory and new new trade theory, a new mathematical modelwas constructed, the new model on the basis of the enterprises productivityheterogeneity, emphasizes role of the institutional factors in explaining ODI issues inbig developing country(China) in the period of institutional transition. Theoreticalresults show that the heterogeneity of enterprise productivity is still one of the mostimportant factors of influence on its internationalization mode and ODI locationchoice; In addition, the heterogeneity in system of the enterprise also affects theenterprise internationalization model boundary, as well as the enterprise ODIlocation choice boundary. Experience analysis supports the inference conclusion oftheories. Analysis shows that enterprises with close ties to government enjoy arelatively low barrier for ODI.
Empirical analysis shows that (1) the enterprise heterogeneity factors havesignificant impact on mode choices of enterprise for internationalization, theproductivity heterogeneity of enterprise has significant impact on it’s choice betweenexport and ODI, the enterprises with low productivity service only in the domesticmarket, the enterprises with higher productivity through export services in theinternational market, the enterprises with highest productivity through ODI servicein the foreign markets; In addition, the heterogeneity of enterprise system,relationship between enterprises and government, significantly affect the choice ofenterprises for export, the enterprises are more close to government, they are morelikely to export, but the influence of heterogeneity in enterprise system on it’s ODIchoice is not significant.(2) the enterprise heterogeneity factors significantly alsoimpact on the location choice of it’s ODI, heterogeneity in productivitiessignificantly affect it’s ODI location choices, the enterprises with high productivitychoose to investment in the developing countries, the enterprises with moreproductivity choose to investment in the developed countries, the enterprises withhighest productivity choose to investment both countries at the same time;Heterogeneity of enterprise system, degree in relationship between the enterprisesand government significantly affect the location choices of the enterprise for ODI,the enterprises are more close with government, they can enjoy some ‘dividends’from institution, so they acquire some enterprise comparative advantage on ODI,compared with other enterprises, these enterprises ODI may enjoy relatively low threshold, Whether ODI for developing countries or ODI for developed countries orODI for both developing countries and developed countries are more successful, ifthe enterprise are more close with government, the institutional heterogeneity factorsof the enterprise changed the border of enterprises in ODI location choices
In addition, in view of the motherland regional institutional environmentdifference markedly, by analysis from the perspective of contract theory and so on,the institutional environment may become a comparative advantage of localenterprises. Empirical analysis confirmed that the institution of regional environmentsignificantly affected the enterprise internationalization mode choice, and ODIlocation choice. The improvement of the institution of regional environmentsignificantly promotes local enterprises to export or ODI; the improvement of theinstitution of regional environment significantly promotes local companies to investin developed countries. In control of a lot of influential factors from the new tradetheory, new trade theory, we use an index for the rule of law, an index for the districtproperty protection, an index for regional protection of the rights and interests ofowners as the proxy variables for regional institutional differences, to explore theinfluence of regional legal institutional differences on mode choice ofinternationalization and on choice of ODI location for the microscopic enterpriseslocate in these regions, the results shows that (1) regional legal environment hassignificant positive influence on both export choice and ODI choice for enterpriseslocate in these regions, improvement in regional legal environment promote localenterprises to export and outward direct investment, the regional environment is acomparative advantage for local enterprises, and significantly affect theinternationalization mode of the enterprises;(2) regional legal environment hassignificant influence on choice of ODI location for enterprises locate in these regions,improvement in regional legal environment promote local enterprises to investmentin developed countries.
In addition to heterogeneity of the enterprise internal system, and home interiorregion institutional differences, finally, the paper analyzes the impact of theinstitutional factors in the host country (distance) on the Chinese enterpriseinvestment decision and the investment location choice. The empirical results showthat in general, the host countries with better institutional environment are morelikely to attract investment from Chinese companies, but there are differences in theresults of the different host system indicators.
In control of a lot of influential factors from the new trade theory, new tradetheory, we respectively use comprehensive economic environment index, propertyrights index, administrative corruption perceptions index, financial freedom index,government spending index, business freedom index, monetary freedom index,labour freedom index, trade freedom index, investment freedom index, financialfreedom index as the proxy variables for economic institutional factors of hostcountries’s, to explore the influence of these host countries’s economic institutionalfactors on mode choice of internationalization and on choice of ODI location for theenterprises in China, the results shows that (1) relative to export, the host countrymore attract Chinese enterprises ODI, if the economic institutional environment ofthese countries are more mature, we use a variety of economic institutional measure to empirical analysis, the results are steady.(2) In general, whether improvement ineconomic institutional environment for the developing countries or developedcountries is more attracted ODI from Chinese enterprises ODI, the improvement indeveloped countries is more attractive in ODI than in developing countries.
According to the theory and empirical analysis results of this paper, wecarefully put forward the following Suggestions:(1) to accelerating reform of thestate-owned enterprise internal system, we need to gradually weaken or eliminate itsrelative "super national" advantage, need more policy to supporting the privateenterprises gradually, we use the institutional structure to ensure each individualfirms to have relatively fair environment;(2) to accelerating the construction ofinfrastructure in some regions, at the same time, through communication, training,guidance, supervision, we accelerate the regional soft institutional environmentconstruction for the relief on the difference between areas;(3) to speeding up theeconomic system transformation, and speed up the transformation of governmentfunctions and stripping double identity of the government in the economic system,because of that the system architecture of State and functions of the governmentinfluence the individual economy and comprehensive economic efficiency, we needto strengthen the system construction of impersonalization, to strengthen theauthority of the legal system of norms for the solution of the economic problemsaccording to the contract spirit, rather than personality or relational factors, and thenthe economic performance improved; we need to standardizing the governmentintervention in the economy, to strengthen the government's service function, theadministration according to law, and the democracy of administrative supervision.
引文
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