基于数据挖掘与GIS技术的海岸带综合承载力研究
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摘要
海岸带综合承载力是近年来研究综合承载力的热点之一,它既被陆地生态系统的承载因子影响,又受到海洋生态系统承载因子的制约,是比较复杂的评估指数。同时对海岸带综合承载力的预测开始吸引学者们涉猎。随着现代海洋环境的恶化,人类对海岸带生态系统影响的凸显,如何评价和预测海岸带综合承载力是决策部门和研究学者们普遍关注的问题。
本文将以舟山海岸带为例,以遥感影像为基础,结合实际调查资料、采样数据和社会经济发展数据,运用空间数据挖掘技术,构建以社会因子、经济因子和自然因子为三个维度因子的海岸带生态系统综合承载力评估的指标体系。这些承载因子来源于陆地与海洋生态系统。此外,本文将经济学中的AD—AS模型进行改进,得到了综合总供给—综合总需求模型(SAD-SAS模型),在此基础上,根据生态系统中总供给与总需求之间的平衡关系,得到了舟山海岸带综合承载力量值,并对其承载结果进行了分类。
另一方面,论文运用支持向量机模型来模拟预测舟山海岸带综合承载力变化趋势。训练得到了最佳的综合承载力预测器模型,调整模型参数,以评价近年来舟山海岸带的综合承载力水平。并最终开发出海岸带综合承载力的评价预测模型,建立评价和预测研究区海岸带综合承载力的知识库和模型库。
研究结果表明：1)舟山海岸带综合承载力的值与生态市(县)标准以及标准值城市密切相关；2)生态学与经济学科的交叉将会给其带来新的发展前景；3)海岸带综合承载力值的分类可以在原来3类的基础上分为5类,即为：空载、可载、满载、超载和负载；4)用支持回归机SVR来进行海岸带综合承载力的量测未来发展态势,准确性较高；5)2005—2009年,舟山海岸带综合承载力水平分别处于可载、可载、可载、空载、空载水平,2005—2008年时处于上升阶段,年均增速为6.5%,在2008—2009年开始下降,下降幅度为3%。2015年,预测结果为0.8099,其处于超载水平,与2009年相比下降了55.5%,年均下降9.25%。当然,在人类认知、标准值选择、权重确定、人类活动量化等方面,海岸带综合承载力理论也有需要解决的问题。
In recent years, studying synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone is a new focus, it is a complicated index who influenced not only by marine factors but also terrestrial factors. At the same time, synthetic carrying capacity prediction in coastal zone attracts more and more researchers. As the marine environment deteriorates and human affects the coastal ecological system badly, assessment and prediction synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone will attract the government and researcher's eyes.
With the Remote Sensing data, practical survey data, sample data and Yearbook data of coastal zone in Zhoushan, we deal with a variety of these data until whose form satisfy our mind, according to them, we build a coastal indicators system for coastal carrying-capacity assess based on data mining technology, which includes not only terrestrial ecosystems but also marine ecosystems. We also use modified AD-AS model in economic to calculate the value of synthetic carrying capacity, and assess which level it is. In the final, SVM model is used to imitate and forecast its variation tendency in future years. We could build the new model to assess synthetical carrying capacity in coastal zone, so do the knowledge base and model library.
The results shows:1) Synthetic carrying capacity value is decided by Ecological City and reference city's value;2) Ecology would have a new view if it has a cross with other subjects, such as economic;3)The level of capacity result could be divided into5styles based on former3ones, which is respectively no-load, loadable, full load, overload and super load;4)The forcast accuracy has reached to90%by using SVR;5) Synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone of Zhoushan is respectively no-load, no-load, no-load, loadable, loadable from2005to2009, it has an average increase6.5%from2005to2008, while it begins to decrease in2009by3%. Until2015, the predictable capacity is0.8099in overload state, which decreases55%compared with which in2009and has an average9.25%.
本文将以舟山海岸带为例,以遥感影像为基础,结合实际调查资料、采样数据和社会经济发展数据,运用空间数据挖掘技术,构建以社会因子、经济因子和自然因子为三个维度因子的海岸带生态系统综合承载力评估的指标体系。这些承载因子来源于陆地与海洋生态系统。此外,本文将经济学中的AD—AS模型进行改进,得到了综合总供给—综合总需求模型(SAD-SAS模型),在此基础上,根据生态系统中总供给与总需求之间的平衡关系,得到了舟山海岸带综合承载力量值,并对其承载结果进行了分类。
另一方面,论文运用支持向量机模型来模拟预测舟山海岸带综合承载力变化趋势。训练得到了最佳的综合承载力预测器模型,调整模型参数,以评价近年来舟山海岸带的综合承载力水平。并最终开发出海岸带综合承载力的评价预测模型,建立评价和预测研究区海岸带综合承载力的知识库和模型库。
研究结果表明：1)舟山海岸带综合承载力的值与生态市(县)标准以及标准值城市密切相关；2)生态学与经济学科的交叉将会给其带来新的发展前景；3)海岸带综合承载力值的分类可以在原来3类的基础上分为5类,即为：空载、可载、满载、超载和负载；4)用支持回归机SVR来进行海岸带综合承载力的量测未来发展态势,准确性较高；5)2005—2009年,舟山海岸带综合承载力水平分别处于可载、可载、可载、空载、空载水平,2005—2008年时处于上升阶段,年均增速为6.5%,在2008—2009年开始下降,下降幅度为3%。2015年,预测结果为0.8099,其处于超载水平,与2009年相比下降了55.5%,年均下降9.25%。当然,在人类认知、标准值选择、权重确定、人类活动量化等方面,海岸带综合承载力理论也有需要解决的问题。
In recent years, studying synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone is a new focus, it is a complicated index who influenced not only by marine factors but also terrestrial factors. At the same time, synthetic carrying capacity prediction in coastal zone attracts more and more researchers. As the marine environment deteriorates and human affects the coastal ecological system badly, assessment and prediction synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone will attract the government and researcher's eyes.
With the Remote Sensing data, practical survey data, sample data and Yearbook data of coastal zone in Zhoushan, we deal with a variety of these data until whose form satisfy our mind, according to them, we build a coastal indicators system for coastal carrying-capacity assess based on data mining technology, which includes not only terrestrial ecosystems but also marine ecosystems. We also use modified AD-AS model in economic to calculate the value of synthetic carrying capacity, and assess which level it is. In the final, SVM model is used to imitate and forecast its variation tendency in future years. We could build the new model to assess synthetical carrying capacity in coastal zone, so do the knowledge base and model library.
The results shows:1) Synthetic carrying capacity value is decided by Ecological City and reference city's value;2) Ecology would have a new view if it has a cross with other subjects, such as economic;3)The level of capacity result could be divided into5styles based on former3ones, which is respectively no-load, loadable, full load, overload and super load;4)The forcast accuracy has reached to90%by using SVR;5) Synthetic carrying capacity in coastal zone of Zhoushan is respectively no-load, no-load, no-load, loadable, loadable from2005to2009, it has an average increase6.5%from2005to2008, while it begins to decrease in2009by3%. Until2015, the predictable capacity is0.8099in overload state, which decreases55%compared with which in2009and has an average9.25%.
引文
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[3]沈渭寿,张慧等,区域生态承载力与生态安全研究,2010,中国环境科学出版社,北京
[4]滕延京 《建筑地基基础设计规范》地基承载力概念的理解与应用工程勘察2004 no.3：1-2
[5]周明辉,李长军关于地基承载力概念及相关术语的探讨,工程勘察2008.02：21-26
[6]TJ7-74,工业与民用建筑地基基础设计规范[S].
[7]GBJ7-89,建筑地基基础设计规范[S]
[8]GB50007-2002,建筑地基基础设计规范[S]
[9]宋丽红,查支祥钢筋混凝土板早期承载力发展规律研究隧道建设2004.24(1)：11-14
[10]王喜堂,徐钢,地基承载力修正计算在超高层建筑基础设计中的应用深圳土木与建筑2009,6(1)：39-40
[11]Thomas Robert Malthus, An essay on the principle of population[M],1798
[12]UNESCO & FAO, Carrying capacity assessment with a pilot study of Kenya:a resource accounting methodology for sustainable Development (M). Paris and Rome:1985
[13]FAO. A Framework for land evaluation FAO soils bulletin 1977:32
[14]Brush,Steohem. The conception of carrying capacity for system of shifting cultivaition. American anthropologist,77(4):799-811
[15]Conklin.H. population land balance under system of tropical forest agriculture. Procedding of the ninth pacific science association, Bangkok, thai,7:63
[16]Cameiro, robert. Slash and burn agriculture:a closer look at its implications for settlement patterns, men and cultures, antbony F C,Wallace F D,Philadelphia, university of Pennsylvania press.
[17]William E. R. ecological footprints and appropriated carrying capacity: what urban economics leaves out[J]. environment and urbanization,4(2):121-130
[18]陈念平.土地资源承载力若干问题浅析.自然资源学报,1989(04)：371-380.
[19]封志明.土地承载力研究的源起与发展.自然资源,1993(06)：74-79.
[20]李明东,陈国先,徐邓耀.土地资源承载力的概念与计算.四川师范学院学报(自然科学版),1996(02)：66-70.
[21]王书华,毛汉英.土地综合承载力指标体系设计及评价——中国东部沿海地区案例研究.自然资源学报,2001(03)：248-254.
[22]汤日红基于3S技术的土地资源综合承载力研究—贵州省卡斯特地区为例贵州师范大学硕士学位论文2008
[23]施雅风,曲耀光乌鲁木齐河流水资源承载力及其合理利用[M]北京：科学出版社1992：132-176
[24]王丽芳,李怡,庄宇水资源承载力评价指标体系及应用研究软科学,2007 12(21)：8-14
[25]KouroD.Joardar.Carrying Capacity and Standards as Bases Towards Urban In frast. Planningin India. HabitatIntl.1998,22(3):327-337.
[26]Jonathan M.Harris,Scott Kennedy. Carrying capacity in agriculture:global and regional issues. Ecological Economics,1999,29:443-461.
[27]Michiel A.Rijsberman. Different approachest oassessment of design and management of sustainable urban water systems. Environmental Impact Assessment Review,2000,20:333-345.
[28]夏军王忠根左其亭生态环境承载力的一种量化方法研究—以海河流域为例自然资源学报2004 19(6)：786-794
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