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中国电力与电煤市场协同机制研究
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摘要
电煤是煤电供应链的上游,电力与电煤市场运行的状况密切相关。在我国电力与电煤矛盾突出的背景下,本文希望在认真贯彻落实国家有关能源政策,坚持科学发展观基础上,从电力与电煤市场协同发展的角度,研究探索实现电力与电煤市场协同的新途径、新方法。本文主要就中国电力与电煤市场的三个关键协同关系及其监管进行深入的研究,包括:(1)中国电力与电煤市场价格协同;(2)中国电力与电煤市场交易协同;(3)中国电力与电煤市场风险协同;(4)中国电力与电煤市场监管。根据我国电力与电煤市场发展现状,构建了价格协同、交易协同、风险协同的电力与电煤市场协同机制,建立了电力与电煤市场监管架构及模型。通过算例和仿真,验证了本文提出的电力与电煤市场协同机制和市场监管模型的有效性。这对我国有序开展电力与电煤市场交易,完善电力与电煤市场建设具有重要意义。
     论文在归纳和分析国内外理论研究和实践成果的基础上,将协同理论运用于电力与电煤市场中,统筹考虑解决电力与电煤市场协同发展的思路和方法,取得了以下四个创新性成果:
     (1)针对电力与电煤市场过渡期构建了一种价格协同机制与方法——考虑市场行为与CPI的电力与电煤价格修正模型与方法。根据市场供需关系允许电煤价格合理的波动,电煤价格的波动及时反映在上网电价上,并通过终端售电价格的修正疏导出去。以3%和5%作为终端电价的修正路径选择的依据,当预测CPI大于3%时,煤价的波动造成电力成本的变化,可以通过只对出口制造企业的终端售电价格联动疏导,通过产品出口将通胀适当输出,缓解国内通胀压力;当CPI大于5%且电煤价格涨幅超过15%时,政府监管机构或价格主管部门应启动电煤价格临时干预,遏制电煤价格进一步上涨。
     (2)针对体系完备的市场提出了电力与电煤市场交易协同机制——体系完备的电力与电煤市场通过现货市场交易、远期市场交易和期货市场交易之间的协同作用形成具有权威性的市场价格。根据电力与电煤交易的特点,设计了电煤期货合约,提出电煤期货交割数据中心及其定位,并分别建立电煤期货市场的集合竞价交易模型、连续竞价交易模型和做市商交易模型,为设计合理的电煤期货市场,健全电煤市场体系,发挥电力与电煤市场现货市场、远期市场和期货市场交易的协同作用提供理论参考。
     (3)针对市场风险的动力问题,运用协同理论的协同效用、伺服原理和自组织动力学模型,分析了电力与电煤市场风险协同管理的动力机理,建立了中国电力与电煤市场风险协同模型;提出了储市商的概念,通过储市商的市场调节作用,实现适度市场化的电力与电煤市场协同,平稳市场价格和抑制市场风险。这为我国电力与电煤市场风险管理和市场调节开启了新思路。
     (4)以当前煤炭大省资源整合为背景,指出我国电力与电煤市场监管的必要性,建立了我国电力与电煤市场监管架构,提出了适合于我国电力与电煤市场的价格、交易及风险监管模式与方法。结合过渡期价格协同机制,提出了储市商进行市场调节下的价格监管方法,并进行了仿真;煤炭资源整合容易形成合谋联盟,就市场交易行为对交易价格的影响进行分析,进而探讨我国电煤市场交易监管模型,为我国电力与电煤市场提供更直接和有效的市场监管措施;根据我国电力与电煤市场特点,提出了建立三级风险监管模式(政府监管机构、交易中心和行业协会)的建议,并从整个电力与电煤供应链和产业链的角度,提出了中国电力与电煤市场监管的建设性建议。
Thermal-coal is the upstream of coal power supply chain,and power is closely related with thermal-coal market operating conditions. With the background of the obvious conflict between power and thermal-coal industry in China, this paper aims to study ways to realize synergy mechanism of power market and thermal-coal market of China from the perspective of cooperative development of power and thermal-coal market, which conscientiously implemented the relevant national energy policy and adhered to scientific development view. This paper mainly studies three key synergy relationships and market regulation of power market and thermal-coal market, including:(1) The price synergy between power market and thermal-coal market in China; (2) The trading synergy between power market and thermal-coal market in China; (3) The risk synergy between power market and thermal-coal market in China; (4) The market supervision of power market and thermal-coal market in China. According to China's development conditions of power market and thermal-coal market, this paper researches and builds power market and thermal-coal market synergy mechanism of China including price synergy, transactions synergy and risk synergy, and propose market regulatory framework and model. And example and simulation results show the effectiveness of power market and thermal-coal market synergy mechanism and market regulation model proposed in the paper. These achievements presented in this paper are important for us to conduct power and thermal-coal trading orderly and improve the construction of power market and thermal-coal markets.
     Based on the summary and analysis of the theory studies and the practice at home and abroad, the paper applies synergy theory in power market and thermal-coal market, and considers coordination development methods of power market and thermal-coal market. This paper concludes with four innovation achievements as follows:
     (1)The paper presents a collaborative approach for power market and thermal-coal market in the transitional period -thermal-coal and power price modified model and method considering the market behavior and CPI. Based on supply and demand relation, it allows thermal-coal price has reasonable fluctuations and the fluctuations timely reflected in power tariff, and conducted through the correction of terminal sale electricity price conduction. We choose 3% and 5% as the terminal electricity price modify route. When forecasting CPI is greater than 3%, power cost change caused by the coal price fluctuations should be conducted only through the terminal sale electricity price linkage of export-oriented manufacturing enterprise and alleviate domestic inflation pressure through exporting products. When CPI is greater than 5% and thermal-coal prices rose more than 15%, the government regulators and the price management department should apply temporary price-intervention policy in order to contain thermal-coal prices rise further more.
     (2) The paper presents transaction collaborative mechanism for the mature power market and thermal-coal market-setting the authoritative price through the cooperation of the spot market trading, forward market trading and futures market trading under complete systems of power market and thermal-coal market. According to trading characteristics of power and thermal-coal, the paper designs thermal-coal futures contract and presents delivery data center of thermal-coal future, and then establishes thermal-coal futures trading model, including auction trading model, continuous auction trading model, market maker trading model. This is of theory value for designing reasonable thermal-coal market and improving thermal-coal market system and playing a role of synergistic action of spot market, forward market and futures market trading in power market and thermal-coal market.
     (3) About the driving force of the the market, this paper shows a mechanism analysis of the power market and thermal-coal market applying synergistic action, servo principle and self-organization dynamics model of synergy theory, establishes the risk synergy model of power and thermal-coal market and brings forward the concept of "reserve merchant". According to the regulating role of the "reserve merchant", we can ease the market price and contain the market risk. Hence we gave a new idea for power and thermal-coal market risk management in our country.
     (4) Taking coal resource integration as the background, the paper establishes the market supervision structure, and then points out the necessity of Chinese power market and thermal-coal market supervision and put forward thermal-coal market supervision model, and then put forward the suitable model,,setting price, transaction and risk supervision for power and thermal-coal market. Integrating price synergy mechanism during market transition, the paper presents a new kind of price supervision method and simulating under the regulating role of the "reserve merchant". The coal resources integration easy to form conspiring alliance, this paper analyzed the results that market trading behavior influence transaction price, and then discusses our country thermal-coal market supervision model in order toprovide power market and thermal-coal market more direct and effective market supervision measures. Based on structure and characteristics of power and thermal-coal market, three level risk control mode is proposed:the government regulators, trading center and industry association. And from the angle of the entire thermal-coal supply chain and industry chain, we proposed the constructive suggestion of market supervision for power market and thermal-coal market.
引文
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