多哈回合农业议题谈判与中国对策
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摘要
多哈回合谈判自2001年启动以来，到目前已经有十二个年头，谈判进展维艰，其分歧的焦点主要在于农业问题，因此研究多哈回合农业议题谈判具有极强的现实意义。截止到目前，最新的谈判进展是WTO第九届部长级会议上达成的“巴厘一揽子协定”，它是WTO成立以来首个全球贸易协定。“巴厘一揽子协定”明确规定为发展中国家提供一系列与农业相关的服务，并在一定条件下同意发展中国家为保障粮食安全进行公共储粮；在棉花贸易方面，协定同意为最不发达国家进一步开放市场，并为这些国家提高棉花产量提供协助。
“巴厘一揽子协定”虽然更加注重发展中国家以及最不发达国家的农业利益，但是就目前来看，它只是一个缩水版的世贸多哈回合协议，具体规定并不明确，而“2008年模式草案”是个非常详细具体的案文，是“巴厘一揽子协定”的重要依据。因此，本文以“2008年模式草案”为研究基础，详细梳理了农业多边谈判历程，认真研究了谈判各方的立场以及乌拉圭回合农业协议的承诺履行情况，并根据多哈农业谈判实际进展模拟了四个谈判方案，通过GTAP模型分析了多哈农业谈判可能结果对世贸组织主要成员的经济影响，接着本文预测了多哈回合农业谈判的发展方向，在此基础上，提出了我国的谈判具体策略，农业调整策略。本文的主要研究内容如下：
1.本文分析了农业经济与农业贸易自由化的作用，说明了农业经济及农业贸易自由化的重要性，为农业多边贸易谈判奠定理论基础。接着详细论述了世界农产品贸易的现状，包括农产品进出口的国别结构和商品结构。本文使用世界银行农业扭曲指数数据库详细分析了全球农业扭曲现状，得出几个主要结论：一是世界农业扭曲最严重的时期在上世纪80年代；二是高收入国家对农业采取的是正保护，即是补贴农业，这造成了极大的贸易扭曲和福利损失，而发展中国家早期对农业采取的是负保护，不过这一情况在近几年得到好转；三是从具体农产品的角度上来说，棉花、大米、热带产品的农业扭曲程度最大。
2.农业多边贸易谈判历程及主要内容分析。从时间顺序的角度出发，分GATT农业谈判历程、乌拉圭回合农业协议的达成、多哈回合农业谈判的进展三部分深度分析了农业多边贸易谈判的历程和主要进展。在此部分，本文详细介绍了模式草案的主要内容。
3.乌拉圭回合农业协议的承诺履行状况以及主要谈判方的立场态度。具体来说，从农业谈判的三大支柱，即是国内支持、市场准入、出口竞争三个方面来详细分析了各方履约情况以及谈判立场。考虑到棉花问题的优先性，本文还深入分析了棉花议题的具体进展。通过研究此部分，我们可以深入了解到农业谈判的焦点所在，从而为多哈回合农业谈判可能的谈判进展奠定深厚基础。
4.多哈农业谈判对主要世贸成员的经济影响。论文使用GTAP模型对经济影响做了一般均衡分析。根据多哈回合实际进展，论文设计了4个方案，分别为2008年模式草案、欧盟提案、G20提案、美国提案，重点分析了多哈回合可能的谈判结果对主要世贸组织成员的产量（qo），出口量（qxw），进口量（qiw），GDP，总体福利的影响。四个提案虽然对不同地区的产量、出口量、进口量有不同的影响，但是结构却大同小异，其中日本农产品产量受到的影响最大，尤其是小麦和大米这样的基本农作物；从总体福利上来讲，进一步的农业贸易自由化使得大部分地区的福利增加。
5.多哈回合农业谈判的前景预测。此部分从两个方面进行展开，一是农业谈判的主要分歧所在，二是对农业谈判的总体展望。指出世贸组织各方在能够维护多边贸易体制的情况下，还是会尽量争取参与谈判，也就是说多哈回合达成协议的可能性是存在的。“巴厘一揽子协定”便是对此展望的有力印证。
6.我国的应对策略。论文首先分析了我国农业的整体状况，一是我国农产品贸易状况，二是我国农业扭曲现状，指出我国农业贸易扭曲程度正在逐步的减少，我国政策也正往补贴农业方向倾斜。接着论文提出了我国的谈判目标和谈判策略，最后从国内支持、市场准入、出口竞争三个方面给出了我国农业政策的具体调整方向。
The WTO Doha negotiations launched in2001, which have lasted for twelveyears to the present, though progress in the negotiations was tough.The maindifferences focus on agriculture issues, so the research on Doha negotiations onagriculture has a high practical significance. Up to now, the latest progress of thenegotiations is the Bali Package reached on WTO Ninth Ministerial Conference, whichis the first global trade agreement since the establishment of the WTO. The BaliPackage clearly states that a range of services related to agriculture should be providedto developing countries and developing countries could conduct public grain storage toensure food security under certain conditions; In the field of cotton trade, the BaliPackage agrees further opening markets for LDCs and assistance provided to thesecountries in order to increase cotton production.
Although the Bali Package have paid more attention to the agriculture interests ofdeveloping countries and LDCs,,but by now, it's just a shrunk version of the WTODoha agreement in which specific provisions are not clear.The2008draft modaliteswhich is an important basis for the Bali Package is very detailed and specific.Therefore,this thesis based on2008draft modalities for the research.The thesis illustrateddetailed process of multilateral negotiations on agriculture, carefully studied theposition of the negotiating parties, and the commitment fulfillment of the UruguayRound Agreement on Agriculture.It simulated four negotiation scenarios inaccordance with the actual progress of the Doha agricultural negotiations, thenanalyzed economic impact of the possible outcome of the Doha negotiations onagriculture to the main WTO members by using the GTAP model. Then outlook ofDoha agricultural negotiations has been predicted.Finally, the thesis proposed specific negotiation strategies and the agricultural adjustment strategies for China. The maincontents are as follows:
1. This thesis analyzed the role of the agricultural economy and agricultural tradeliberalization, indicated the importance of the agricultural economy and theliberalization of agricultural trade to make the theoretical foundation for theagricultural multilateral trade negotiations. Then it discussed current state of the world trade in agricultural products in detail, including import and export of agriculturalproducts structure in country and commodity level. This article used the World Bank'sDistortions to Agricultural Incentives Database to analyze current situation of globalagricultural distortions, and several conclusions could be drawn: Firstly, the world'smost serious agricultural distortions period was in the1980s; Secondly, thehigh-income countries usually protects agriculture by agricultural subsidies, whichcaused great trade distortions and welfare losses, while negative protection wasprevalent in developing countries in the early, but this situation get better in recentyears; Thirdly, in the perspective of specific agricultural products,the biggest degreeof distortion lied on cotton, rice and the tropical agricultural products.
2. Analysis on history of agricultural multilateral trade negotiations and the maincontent. From the perspective of chronological order, deep analysis on progress of multilateral trade negotiations was based on three-part that were GATT agriculturalnegotiations, the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, the Doha negotiations onagriculture.
3. The commitment fulfillment of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agricultureand attitude of the main negotiating parties. Specifically, detailed analysis ofcompliance by the parties and negotiating positions were based on three pillars ofagricultural negotiations that is domestic support, market access, and exportcompetition. Taking into account the priorities of the cotton issue, the paper alsoanalyzed the concrete progress in the cotton issue. By studying this section, we couldunderstand the focus and difficulty of the negotiations on agriculture so as to lay asolid foundation of possible progress in the Doha negotiations on agriculture.
4. Economic impact of the Doha negotiations on agriculture on major WTOmembers. The thesis used GTAP model which is commonly used in generalequilibrium analysis to analyze the economic impact. According to the actual progressof the Doha Round, the paper involved four scenarios which were2008draftmodalities, the EU proposal, the G20proposal and the U.S. proposal.The thesisfocused on the economic impacts of possible outcome of the Doha negotiations onmajor WTO members, including impacts on output (qo), exports (qxw), imports (qiw),GDP and welfare impact. Although there existed different effects of four scenarios on production, exports, imports in different regions, the structure was similar, whereagricultural production in Japan was most affected, especially wheat and rice.Furtheragricultural trade liberalization made welfare increased in most areas.
5. Prediction of the prospects of the Doha agricultural negotiations. This sectionwas expanded from two aspects: one was the main divergence of agriculturenegotiations; the second was the overall outlook for the agriculture negotiations. Itrevealed the parties would strive to participate in the negotiations to maintain WTOmultilateral trading system, which was to say, the possibility of Doha Roundagreement still existed. The Bali Package is solid confirmation of this prediction.
6. Strategies of China. Firstly, the overall situation of China's agriculture wasanalyzed by two aspects.One is China's agricultural trade situation, and the second isthe status quo of China's agricultural distortions pointing out the extent of China'sagricultural trade distortions was gradually reduced and our policy were also tiltedtowards agricultural subsidies. Secondly, the paper presented Chinese negotiatingobjectives and bargaining strategies. Finally, specific adjustment of Chineseagricultural policy was pointed out from three aspects that was domestic support,market access and export competition.
“巴厘一揽子协定”虽然更加注重发展中国家以及最不发达国家的农业利益，但是就目前来看，它只是一个缩水版的世贸多哈回合协议，具体规定并不明确，而“2008年模式草案”是个非常详细具体的案文，是“巴厘一揽子协定”的重要依据。因此，本文以“2008年模式草案”为研究基础，详细梳理了农业多边谈判历程，认真研究了谈判各方的立场以及乌拉圭回合农业协议的承诺履行情况，并根据多哈农业谈判实际进展模拟了四个谈判方案，通过GTAP模型分析了多哈农业谈判可能结果对世贸组织主要成员的经济影响，接着本文预测了多哈回合农业谈判的发展方向，在此基础上，提出了我国的谈判具体策略，农业调整策略。本文的主要研究内容如下：
1.本文分析了农业经济与农业贸易自由化的作用，说明了农业经济及农业贸易自由化的重要性，为农业多边贸易谈判奠定理论基础。接着详细论述了世界农产品贸易的现状，包括农产品进出口的国别结构和商品结构。本文使用世界银行农业扭曲指数数据库详细分析了全球农业扭曲现状，得出几个主要结论：一是世界农业扭曲最严重的时期在上世纪80年代；二是高收入国家对农业采取的是正保护，即是补贴农业，这造成了极大的贸易扭曲和福利损失，而发展中国家早期对农业采取的是负保护，不过这一情况在近几年得到好转；三是从具体农产品的角度上来说，棉花、大米、热带产品的农业扭曲程度最大。
2.农业多边贸易谈判历程及主要内容分析。从时间顺序的角度出发，分GATT农业谈判历程、乌拉圭回合农业协议的达成、多哈回合农业谈判的进展三部分深度分析了农业多边贸易谈判的历程和主要进展。在此部分，本文详细介绍了模式草案的主要内容。
3.乌拉圭回合农业协议的承诺履行状况以及主要谈判方的立场态度。具体来说，从农业谈判的三大支柱，即是国内支持、市场准入、出口竞争三个方面来详细分析了各方履约情况以及谈判立场。考虑到棉花问题的优先性，本文还深入分析了棉花议题的具体进展。通过研究此部分，我们可以深入了解到农业谈判的焦点所在，从而为多哈回合农业谈判可能的谈判进展奠定深厚基础。
4.多哈农业谈判对主要世贸成员的经济影响。论文使用GTAP模型对经济影响做了一般均衡分析。根据多哈回合实际进展，论文设计了4个方案，分别为2008年模式草案、欧盟提案、G20提案、美国提案，重点分析了多哈回合可能的谈判结果对主要世贸组织成员的产量（qo），出口量（qxw），进口量（qiw），GDP，总体福利的影响。四个提案虽然对不同地区的产量、出口量、进口量有不同的影响，但是结构却大同小异，其中日本农产品产量受到的影响最大，尤其是小麦和大米这样的基本农作物；从总体福利上来讲，进一步的农业贸易自由化使得大部分地区的福利增加。
5.多哈回合农业谈判的前景预测。此部分从两个方面进行展开，一是农业谈判的主要分歧所在，二是对农业谈判的总体展望。指出世贸组织各方在能够维护多边贸易体制的情况下，还是会尽量争取参与谈判，也就是说多哈回合达成协议的可能性是存在的。“巴厘一揽子协定”便是对此展望的有力印证。
6.我国的应对策略。论文首先分析了我国农业的整体状况，一是我国农产品贸易状况，二是我国农业扭曲现状，指出我国农业贸易扭曲程度正在逐步的减少，我国政策也正往补贴农业方向倾斜。接着论文提出了我国的谈判目标和谈判策略，最后从国内支持、市场准入、出口竞争三个方面给出了我国农业政策的具体调整方向。
The WTO Doha negotiations launched in2001, which have lasted for twelveyears to the present, though progress in the negotiations was tough.The maindifferences focus on agriculture issues, so the research on Doha negotiations onagriculture has a high practical significance. Up to now, the latest progress of thenegotiations is the Bali Package reached on WTO Ninth Ministerial Conference, whichis the first global trade agreement since the establishment of the WTO. The BaliPackage clearly states that a range of services related to agriculture should be providedto developing countries and developing countries could conduct public grain storage toensure food security under certain conditions; In the field of cotton trade, the BaliPackage agrees further opening markets for LDCs and assistance provided to thesecountries in order to increase cotton production.
Although the Bali Package have paid more attention to the agriculture interests ofdeveloping countries and LDCs,,but by now, it's just a shrunk version of the WTODoha agreement in which specific provisions are not clear.The2008draft modaliteswhich is an important basis for the Bali Package is very detailed and specific.Therefore,this thesis based on2008draft modalities for the research.The thesis illustrateddetailed process of multilateral negotiations on agriculture, carefully studied theposition of the negotiating parties, and the commitment fulfillment of the UruguayRound Agreement on Agriculture.It simulated four negotiation scenarios inaccordance with the actual progress of the Doha agricultural negotiations, thenanalyzed economic impact of the possible outcome of the Doha negotiations onagriculture to the main WTO members by using the GTAP model. Then outlook ofDoha agricultural negotiations has been predicted.Finally, the thesis proposed specific negotiation strategies and the agricultural adjustment strategies for China. The maincontents are as follows:
1. This thesis analyzed the role of the agricultural economy and agricultural tradeliberalization, indicated the importance of the agricultural economy and theliberalization of agricultural trade to make the theoretical foundation for theagricultural multilateral trade negotiations. Then it discussed current state of the world trade in agricultural products in detail, including import and export of agriculturalproducts structure in country and commodity level. This article used the World Bank'sDistortions to Agricultural Incentives Database to analyze current situation of globalagricultural distortions, and several conclusions could be drawn: Firstly, the world'smost serious agricultural distortions period was in the1980s; Secondly, thehigh-income countries usually protects agriculture by agricultural subsidies, whichcaused great trade distortions and welfare losses, while negative protection wasprevalent in developing countries in the early, but this situation get better in recentyears; Thirdly, in the perspective of specific agricultural products,the biggest degreeof distortion lied on cotton, rice and the tropical agricultural products.
2. Analysis on history of agricultural multilateral trade negotiations and the maincontent. From the perspective of chronological order, deep analysis on progress of multilateral trade negotiations was based on three-part that were GATT agriculturalnegotiations, the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture, the Doha negotiations onagriculture.
3. The commitment fulfillment of the Uruguay Round Agreement on Agricultureand attitude of the main negotiating parties. Specifically, detailed analysis ofcompliance by the parties and negotiating positions were based on three pillars ofagricultural negotiations that is domestic support, market access, and exportcompetition. Taking into account the priorities of the cotton issue, the paper alsoanalyzed the concrete progress in the cotton issue. By studying this section, we couldunderstand the focus and difficulty of the negotiations on agriculture so as to lay asolid foundation of possible progress in the Doha negotiations on agriculture.
4. Economic impact of the Doha negotiations on agriculture on major WTOmembers. The thesis used GTAP model which is commonly used in generalequilibrium analysis to analyze the economic impact. According to the actual progressof the Doha Round, the paper involved four scenarios which were2008draftmodalities, the EU proposal, the G20proposal and the U.S. proposal.The thesisfocused on the economic impacts of possible outcome of the Doha negotiations onmajor WTO members, including impacts on output (qo), exports (qxw), imports (qiw),GDP and welfare impact. Although there existed different effects of four scenarios on production, exports, imports in different regions, the structure was similar, whereagricultural production in Japan was most affected, especially wheat and rice.Furtheragricultural trade liberalization made welfare increased in most areas.
5. Prediction of the prospects of the Doha agricultural negotiations. This sectionwas expanded from two aspects: one was the main divergence of agriculturenegotiations; the second was the overall outlook for the agriculture negotiations. Itrevealed the parties would strive to participate in the negotiations to maintain WTOmultilateral trading system, which was to say, the possibility of Doha Roundagreement still existed. The Bali Package is solid confirmation of this prediction.
6. Strategies of China. Firstly, the overall situation of China's agriculture wasanalyzed by two aspects.One is China's agricultural trade situation, and the second isthe status quo of China's agricultural distortions pointing out the extent of China'sagricultural trade distortions was gradually reduced and our policy were also tiltedtowards agricultural subsidies. Secondly, the paper presented Chinese negotiatingobjectives and bargaining strategies. Finally, specific adjustment of Chineseagricultural policy was pointed out from three aspects that was domestic support,market access and export competition.
引文
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