基于情景模拟的城市暴雨内涝风险评估
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摘要
在气候变暖和快速城市化背景下,城市暴雨内涝风险日趋加剧。因此,为协调好人地关系,促进人与自然和谐发展,开展暴雨内涝风险评估显得尤为重要,可以为上海市暴雨内涝风险管理、应急预案和可持续发展提供理论基础和科学依据。
在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险应急预案情景分析(40730526)”和上海市科技启明星计划项目“基于情景分析的上海市自然灾害风险评估与区划研究(09QA1401800)”的资助下,本研究系统分析了上海暴雨内涝形成机理,运用SWMM水文模型,通过数值计算和水文分析相结合的方法,构建了上海市暴雨内涝模型,并结合暴雨内涝灾害风险评估理论,在情景模拟基础上,对城市主要承灾体-道路交通进行了风险评估,本研究的主要成果如下：
(1)系统总结了国内外排水模型的现状与发展趋势,阐述了SWMM模型的概况与计算原理。分析了城市内涝风险评估的过程与方法,并在此基础上,首次提出了小尺度基于情景模拟的指标体系风险评估方法。
(2)运用SWMM模型,在地形,土地利用类型,排水管网等数据的支持下,通过基础数据的导入、汇水区划分、参数预估与率定等过程构建了适合上海地区的城市暴雨内涝模型。根据上海市暴雨强度公式合成了4种情景的芝加哥降雨过程,并利用模型对4种降雨情景进行模拟计算。结果显示：在不同情景中,随着重现期增大,积水节点的个数逐渐增加,积水时间提前,积水历时显著增长,平均深度增加,节点径流洪峰流量和总流量增大,从而导致地面积水程度加重,并带来一定的内涝灾害。
(3)选取城市道路作为承灾体,在情景模拟的基础上选取积水深度和积水历时指标,对承灾体道路交通选取车流量和车速两项指标,将情景模拟和指标体系方法相结合来开展暴雨内涝风险评估。结果显示：普善和华昌排水片因地势低洼,不能有效及时排除积水,结果导致永兴路、徐家宅路、育婴堂路、新路、新马路、京江支路等部分路段始终处于高风险值状态。在建模区北部和周围区域,因泵站在排水中发挥的作用,在四种情景中,潘家弯路、大统路、百禄路、七浦路、华星路、山西北路、乍浦路、海南路、北海宁路和余杭路等路段均处于低风险状态。
(4)根据城市内涝风险评估结果,提出完善排水体系整体规划、规范排水管网设计标、完善泵站规划、加强排水管网的维护与管理等城市排水设施建议与对策。
Under the situation of climate change and fast urbanization, the risk of waterlogging is getting greater. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out waterlogging risk assessment for promoting the harmony between human being and nature, and providing scientific basis for waterlogging risk anagement, contingency plans and sustainable development of shanghai.
This dissertation was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40730526, No.40571006) and Shanghai Science and Technology Venus Project (No.09QA1401800). This paper systematically analyzed the formation mechanism of waterlogging, and then established a rainstorm waterlogging model basing on the SWMM hydrologic model. Combining with natural disaster risk assessment theory, a risk assessment on roads and traffic was carried out in different scenarios. Some main conclusions are obtained listed below.
(1) Basing on the overview of the drainage system models home and abroad, the profiles and calculation principle of the SWMM model has been systematically summarized. With the analysis on the process and methods of risk assessment, the index system method basing on the scenario simulation in a small scale was initially issued in the field of risk assessment.
(2) Using the data of topography, land use, drainage network and etc., the urban rainstorm waterlogging model fit to Shanghai was established by basic data import, watershed classification, parameter estimation and calibration. Four Chicago rainfall scenarios have been synthesized according to the Shanghai storm intensity formula, from which the rainstorm waterlogging in four scenarios was simulated by the SWMM model. The simulation showed that with the increase of the return period, the number of puddles grew quickly, the peak time of the waterlogging came earlier, the duration of the waterlogging lasted longer, and the average water depth increased significantly. In addition, the peak flow of runoff and total flow increased respectively. All these results revealed that waterlogging disasters would be further aggravated.
(3) Using the urban road network as the hazard affected body, take scenario simulation as a base, the index system including indicators such as water depth, duration, traffic flow and traffic speed was screened out. The results showed that wanterlogging was extremely serious in Pu Shan and Hua Chang drainage area due to low-lying. As a result, Yong xing Road, Xu jia zhai Road, Yu ying tang Road, Xin road, Xin ma Road, Jingjiang Road were in a high-risk status in four scenarios. Around the study area, the drainage pump played an important role in reducing the risk of storm caused waterlogging. The Pan Jiawan Road, Da tong Road, Bai lu Road, Seven pu Road, Hua xing Road, Shan xi North Road, Zha pu, Hai nan Road, Bei hai ning Road,Yu hang Road and other Roads were in low-risk.
(4) On the basis of waterlogging risk assessment, several risk management measures and suggestions such as improving urban drainage systems designing, drainage system maintainence and etc.have been proposed basing on the theory of risk precaution.
在国家自然科学基金重点项目“沿海城市自然灾害风险应急预案情景分析(40730526)”和上海市科技启明星计划项目“基于情景分析的上海市自然灾害风险评估与区划研究(09QA1401800)”的资助下,本研究系统分析了上海暴雨内涝形成机理,运用SWMM水文模型,通过数值计算和水文分析相结合的方法,构建了上海市暴雨内涝模型,并结合暴雨内涝灾害风险评估理论,在情景模拟基础上,对城市主要承灾体-道路交通进行了风险评估,本研究的主要成果如下：
(1)系统总结了国内外排水模型的现状与发展趋势,阐述了SWMM模型的概况与计算原理。分析了城市内涝风险评估的过程与方法,并在此基础上,首次提出了小尺度基于情景模拟的指标体系风险评估方法。
(2)运用SWMM模型,在地形,土地利用类型,排水管网等数据的支持下,通过基础数据的导入、汇水区划分、参数预估与率定等过程构建了适合上海地区的城市暴雨内涝模型。根据上海市暴雨强度公式合成了4种情景的芝加哥降雨过程,并利用模型对4种降雨情景进行模拟计算。结果显示：在不同情景中,随着重现期增大,积水节点的个数逐渐增加,积水时间提前,积水历时显著增长,平均深度增加,节点径流洪峰流量和总流量增大,从而导致地面积水程度加重,并带来一定的内涝灾害。
(3)选取城市道路作为承灾体,在情景模拟的基础上选取积水深度和积水历时指标,对承灾体道路交通选取车流量和车速两项指标,将情景模拟和指标体系方法相结合来开展暴雨内涝风险评估。结果显示：普善和华昌排水片因地势低洼,不能有效及时排除积水,结果导致永兴路、徐家宅路、育婴堂路、新路、新马路、京江支路等部分路段始终处于高风险值状态。在建模区北部和周围区域,因泵站在排水中发挥的作用,在四种情景中,潘家弯路、大统路、百禄路、七浦路、华星路、山西北路、乍浦路、海南路、北海宁路和余杭路等路段均处于低风险状态。
(4)根据城市内涝风险评估结果,提出完善排水体系整体规划、规范排水管网设计标、完善泵站规划、加强排水管网的维护与管理等城市排水设施建议与对策。
Under the situation of climate change and fast urbanization, the risk of waterlogging is getting greater. Therefore, it is of great significance to carry out waterlogging risk assessment for promoting the harmony between human being and nature, and providing scientific basis for waterlogging risk anagement, contingency plans and sustainable development of shanghai.
This dissertation was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.40730526, No.40571006) and Shanghai Science and Technology Venus Project (No.09QA1401800). This paper systematically analyzed the formation mechanism of waterlogging, and then established a rainstorm waterlogging model basing on the SWMM hydrologic model. Combining with natural disaster risk assessment theory, a risk assessment on roads and traffic was carried out in different scenarios. Some main conclusions are obtained listed below.
(1) Basing on the overview of the drainage system models home and abroad, the profiles and calculation principle of the SWMM model has been systematically summarized. With the analysis on the process and methods of risk assessment, the index system method basing on the scenario simulation in a small scale was initially issued in the field of risk assessment.
(2) Using the data of topography, land use, drainage network and etc., the urban rainstorm waterlogging model fit to Shanghai was established by basic data import, watershed classification, parameter estimation and calibration. Four Chicago rainfall scenarios have been synthesized according to the Shanghai storm intensity formula, from which the rainstorm waterlogging in four scenarios was simulated by the SWMM model. The simulation showed that with the increase of the return period, the number of puddles grew quickly, the peak time of the waterlogging came earlier, the duration of the waterlogging lasted longer, and the average water depth increased significantly. In addition, the peak flow of runoff and total flow increased respectively. All these results revealed that waterlogging disasters would be further aggravated.
(3) Using the urban road network as the hazard affected body, take scenario simulation as a base, the index system including indicators such as water depth, duration, traffic flow and traffic speed was screened out. The results showed that wanterlogging was extremely serious in Pu Shan and Hua Chang drainage area due to low-lying. As a result, Yong xing Road, Xu jia zhai Road, Yu ying tang Road, Xin road, Xin ma Road, Jingjiang Road were in a high-risk status in four scenarios. Around the study area, the drainage pump played an important role in reducing the risk of storm caused waterlogging. The Pan Jiawan Road, Da tong Road, Bai lu Road, Seven pu Road, Hua xing Road, Shan xi North Road, Zha pu, Hai nan Road, Bei hai ning Road,Yu hang Road and other Roads were in low-risk.
(4) On the basis of waterlogging risk assessment, several risk management measures and suggestions such as improving urban drainage systems designing, drainage system maintainence and etc.have been proposed basing on the theory of risk precaution.
引文
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