天津港风暴潮数值模式的应用研究
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摘要
天津港沿岸的风暴潮灾害频繁发生,常常造成巨大的经济损失和人员伤亡迫切需要准确的风暴潮预报为当地的防潮减灾工作服务。
本文应用天津港风暴潮潮位资料、国家常规地面气象观测资料和探空资料、天津自动站资料和美国国家环境预报中心NCEP再分析资料,以渤海风暴潮数值预报模式为基础,采用数值模拟的方法,开展天津港风暴潮数值模式的应用研究。主要研究内容包括：
1)对1950年-2010年天津港风暴潮历史资料进行了统计,分析天津港风暴潮的历史统计特征。分析结果表明天津港风暴潮一年四季均有发生,其中6月-11月出现较集中,8月份是风暴潮最集中的一个月,历史上有37.8%的风暴潮发生在8月份；历史最高潮位出现在9月份,8月和11月次之；天津港风暴潮发生频率较高,高于470cm的潮位平均每年会出现2.43次,高于500cm的潮位平均每2.5年就会出现一次。
2)分析了渤海特殊地形作用对天津港风暴潮的影响。表明除了渤海上空持续的向岸大风会造成天津港风暴潮外,即使天津港无风或吹离岸风时,由于渤海特殊地形的作用,如果有较强天气系统(如气旋)作用产生北黄海海域偏东大风,导致北黄海水体大量涌入渤海,天津港附件海面也会异常升高,甚至发生风暴潮。
3)使用渤海风暴潮数值预报模式对天津港10次风暴潮个例进行模拟试验,针对不同天气系统进一步研究了渤海风暴潮数值模式对天津港风暴潮的模拟能力。结果表明模式对台风型风暴潮的增水模拟结果还是误差偏大；对强孤立气旋型、冷锋低压型、冷锋型风暴潮的增水模拟结果比实际增水偏小,且三者偏小幅度有所不同。
4)由于在渤海风暴潮的形成中,风应力起决定性作用,通过适当调大风应力拖曳系数,模式的模拟效果有所提高；试验表明风应力拖曳系数修正参数A调整到[0.096,0.16]这个区间时,模式对强孤立气旋型、冷锋低压型和冷锋型风暴潮的模拟误差有所减小,模拟结果更接近实况。
5)用2011年一次天津港风暴潮应用个例检验了风应力拖曳系数调整方案的实用性,结果表明风应力拖曳系数调整后,有效减小了模拟增水与实测增水的误差,提高了渤海风暴潮数值模式的模拟精度。
Storm surge disasters along Tianjin Port occurr frequently and often cause enormous economic losses and casualties.Accurate prediction of storm surge is urgently needed for services in preventing and reducing storm surge disasters.
In this paper, the storm surge data of Tianjin Port, the conventional meteorological observation data and sounding data, Tianjin automatic weather station data and the NCEP reanalysis data sets are used; the paper bases on BoHai Storm Surge Model using numerical simulation method to carry out Tianjin Port storm surge numerical model application research. The research topics include:
1) This paper compiles statistics from 1950-2010 storm surge data of Tianjin Port, and analyzes the characteristics of Tianjin Port's storm surge. The results show that the storm surges throughout the full year have occurred in Tianjin Port, which is concentrated in June to November. August is the most concentrated month. Historically,37.8% of storm surges happened in August. Maximum storm surge tide was in September, August and November followed by; Tianjin Port's storm surges occured frequently, the tide level above 470cm, there will be 2.43 times per year average and higher than 500cm tide level occurs every 2.5 years.
2) This paper analyzes the special topography of the Bohai sea effects storm surge of Tianjin Port. The results show that not only strong wind over the Bohai Sea continued will cause storm surges,when no wind or offshore wind blowing, if there is a strong weather system (such as cyclones)produced strong easterly winds in the North Huanghai Sea. Because the topography of the Bohai Sea in particular,if a large number of water of the North Huanghai Sea into Bohai Sea, Tianjin Port's tide will be abnormally higher, or even caused storm surges.
3) BHSSM is used to simulate 10 cases of storm surge in Tianjin Port; capability of the model simulating different types storm surge is analyzed; The results show that the model's simulation results of typhoon storm surges have large error; The model's simulation results of Strong cyclone storm surges, low pressure and cold front storm surges and cold front storm surges are smaller than the actual tide, and the small magnitude of the three is different.
4) The wind stress plays a decisive role on the formation of Bohai sea storm surge. By increasing the drag coefficient of wind stress appropriately,the simulation results of the mode have improved;Experiment shows that the simulation error on the storm surge of strong isolated cyclones type, low pressure of cold front type and cold front type are reduced and the simulation result is closer to the real condition,when the wind stress drag coefficient correction parameter A is adjusted to [0.096,0.16].
5) One case of storm surge in 2011 in Tianjin Port is used to test the practicability of adjustment programs on wind stress drag coefficient. The results show that after the adjustment of wind stress drag coefficient, the error between simulated water level and actual water level is effectively decreased, which improves the simulation accuracy of numerical model on Bohai Sea storm surge.
本文应用天津港风暴潮潮位资料、国家常规地面气象观测资料和探空资料、天津自动站资料和美国国家环境预报中心NCEP再分析资料,以渤海风暴潮数值预报模式为基础,采用数值模拟的方法,开展天津港风暴潮数值模式的应用研究。主要研究内容包括：
1)对1950年-2010年天津港风暴潮历史资料进行了统计,分析天津港风暴潮的历史统计特征。分析结果表明天津港风暴潮一年四季均有发生,其中6月-11月出现较集中,8月份是风暴潮最集中的一个月,历史上有37.8%的风暴潮发生在8月份；历史最高潮位出现在9月份,8月和11月次之；天津港风暴潮发生频率较高,高于470cm的潮位平均每年会出现2.43次,高于500cm的潮位平均每2.5年就会出现一次。
2)分析了渤海特殊地形作用对天津港风暴潮的影响。表明除了渤海上空持续的向岸大风会造成天津港风暴潮外,即使天津港无风或吹离岸风时,由于渤海特殊地形的作用,如果有较强天气系统(如气旋)作用产生北黄海海域偏东大风,导致北黄海水体大量涌入渤海,天津港附件海面也会异常升高,甚至发生风暴潮。
3)使用渤海风暴潮数值预报模式对天津港10次风暴潮个例进行模拟试验,针对不同天气系统进一步研究了渤海风暴潮数值模式对天津港风暴潮的模拟能力。结果表明模式对台风型风暴潮的增水模拟结果还是误差偏大；对强孤立气旋型、冷锋低压型、冷锋型风暴潮的增水模拟结果比实际增水偏小,且三者偏小幅度有所不同。
4)由于在渤海风暴潮的形成中,风应力起决定性作用,通过适当调大风应力拖曳系数,模式的模拟效果有所提高；试验表明风应力拖曳系数修正参数A调整到[0.096,0.16]这个区间时,模式对强孤立气旋型、冷锋低压型和冷锋型风暴潮的模拟误差有所减小,模拟结果更接近实况。
5)用2011年一次天津港风暴潮应用个例检验了风应力拖曳系数调整方案的实用性,结果表明风应力拖曳系数调整后,有效减小了模拟增水与实测增水的误差,提高了渤海风暴潮数值模式的模拟精度。
Storm surge disasters along Tianjin Port occurr frequently and often cause enormous economic losses and casualties.Accurate prediction of storm surge is urgently needed for services in preventing and reducing storm surge disasters.
In this paper, the storm surge data of Tianjin Port, the conventional meteorological observation data and sounding data, Tianjin automatic weather station data and the NCEP reanalysis data sets are used; the paper bases on BoHai Storm Surge Model using numerical simulation method to carry out Tianjin Port storm surge numerical model application research. The research topics include:
1) This paper compiles statistics from 1950-2010 storm surge data of Tianjin Port, and analyzes the characteristics of Tianjin Port's storm surge. The results show that the storm surges throughout the full year have occurred in Tianjin Port, which is concentrated in June to November. August is the most concentrated month. Historically,37.8% of storm surges happened in August. Maximum storm surge tide was in September, August and November followed by; Tianjin Port's storm surges occured frequently, the tide level above 470cm, there will be 2.43 times per year average and higher than 500cm tide level occurs every 2.5 years.
2) This paper analyzes the special topography of the Bohai sea effects storm surge of Tianjin Port. The results show that not only strong wind over the Bohai Sea continued will cause storm surges,when no wind or offshore wind blowing, if there is a strong weather system (such as cyclones)produced strong easterly winds in the North Huanghai Sea. Because the topography of the Bohai Sea in particular,if a large number of water of the North Huanghai Sea into Bohai Sea, Tianjin Port's tide will be abnormally higher, or even caused storm surges.
3) BHSSM is used to simulate 10 cases of storm surge in Tianjin Port; capability of the model simulating different types storm surge is analyzed; The results show that the model's simulation results of typhoon storm surges have large error; The model's simulation results of Strong cyclone storm surges, low pressure and cold front storm surges and cold front storm surges are smaller than the actual tide, and the small magnitude of the three is different.
4) The wind stress plays a decisive role on the formation of Bohai sea storm surge. By increasing the drag coefficient of wind stress appropriately,the simulation results of the mode have improved;Experiment shows that the simulation error on the storm surge of strong isolated cyclones type, low pressure of cold front type and cold front type are reduced and the simulation result is closer to the real condition,when the wind stress drag coefficient correction parameter A is adjusted to [0.096,0.16].
5) One case of storm surge in 2011 in Tianjin Port is used to test the practicability of adjustment programs on wind stress drag coefficient. The results show that after the adjustment of wind stress drag coefficient, the error between simulated water level and actual water level is effectively decreased, which improves the simulation accuracy of numerical model on Bohai Sea storm surge.
引文
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